Time to Bench Salty

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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty : It doesn't take a genius to figure out that Tek caught far more talented pitches than Salty. Pedro, Lowe, Schilling, a younger Beckett, a better Lester.......Better bull pens........even last year when Beckett was pitching well who was his catcher??????  And guess what?  We don't have an 8 year sample on Salty.

    You are wrong. The way CERA is supposed to be used is to look at how each catcher does with each individual pitcher one by one, and then you compare the CERA, OPS against, etc...  Same year. Same pitchers. Different CERAs. Even if you took away Beckett from VTek (by the way, you call Beckett a bum, but now he's a good pitcher?) he was leeps and bounds ahead of Salty's numbers.

    harness and I went back and painstakenly accumulated all the data, pitcher- by- pitcher, year-by-year, and found that looking at the same pitchers VTek continually got better results from between 70-85% of all the pitchers every year since he turned 30. 

    VTek vs Hatteberg, Hillenbrand, Mirabelli, VMart, Kottaras, and Salty.

    There were a few pitchers (like Buch) who conatinually did better with anyone but VTek, but by and large, I mean way large, almost every pitcher did better with Vtek when observed year-by-year vs our other catcher.

    Those are the facts. Yes, the sample size between VTek and Salty is rather small, but it was a continuation of a VTek trend from way back, and I believe our data showed that out of the pitchers that both VTek and salty caught a significant sample size with, VTek had a better CERA and OPS against with something like 14 out of the top 16 pitchers by IP. Same pitchers. Same home park. Yes, other variables may have made a difference, but the VTek trend from years and year before make it pretty clear, that he got better results. Maybe not as great as the CERA differential or wiining% differential indicated, but to deny he made a sigificant difference is not being realistic.

    Yes, Salty caught Wake, and VTek didn't, but Wake was not counted, because there was not a significant sample size to judge by , so unless you are using CERA wrongly, as most posters here seem to do, then your point is not correct. 


    Posted by andrewmitch[/QUOTE]

     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty :
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    well that's all nice but there are other factors

    what teams were we playing

    were those teams hot or cold at the time

    did they have their "A" or "B" line up in at the time

    who were our fielders behind us - did we have our "A" or "B" team in the field (and  yes, I know it doesn't count errors but fielding isn't just about not getting an official E).

    what ballpark were we in

    then there's the entire TIME issue - for example, and I may not be accurate here so it's just an examle......but Tek caught Beckett for most of the year in 2011....but by September, Salty and Lava caught Beckett.......I find it hard to believe that Beckett fell apart in September because he didn't have his binky with me.......

    etc

    too many other factors.......I think you made a nice start to the analysis but I believe you've fallen short.......
     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    2011 (somewhat even IP caught by each catcher or significant sample size by both):

    Lester
    wVTek  40.0  2.48
    wSalty  145.2  3.77

    Lackey
    VTek     33.0  6.82
    Salty    127.0 6.31

    Bard
    wVTek  31.1  1.44
    wSalty  39.2  4.54

    Paps
    VTek   25.2  2.45
    Salty   36.0  2.75

    Aceves
    VTek  42  2.34
    Salty  67  2.82

    Miller
    VTek  30  7.28
    Salty  35  4.08

    Albers
    VTek  36  4.00
    Salty  28  5.53

    Bedard
    VTek  16  3.38
    Salty  19  3.86

    Unbalanced sample sizes:

    Beckett
    VTek  182  2.62
    Salty     11  7.36

    Wakefield
    VTek     13  4.15 
    Salty   142  5.21

    Buchholtz
    VTek    19  3.38
    Salty    64  3.52

    Dice-K
    VTek   35  3.82
    Salty    2  31.50

    Only Lackey & Andrew Miller did better with Salty, and Miller had one of the lowest total sample size on this list, while the differential with lackey is minimal.

    Bard seemed to love VTek:
    2010:
    VTek  19  0.48
    VMart 44  2.64
    Salty     2  4.50

    Comparing catcher with each pitcher individually one-by-one takes away the bias of an overall CERA that is weighted by who catches better or worse pitchers.  
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    well that's all nice but there are other factors

    what teams were we playing

    were those teams hot or cold at the time

    did they have their "A" or "B" line up in at the time

    who were our fielders behind us - did we have our "A" or "B" team in the field (and  yes, I know it doesn't count errors but fielding isn't just about not getting an official E).

    what ballpark were we in

    then there's the entire TIME issue - for example, and I may not be accurate here so it's just an examle......but Tek caught Beckett for most of the year in 2011....but by September, Salty and Lava caught Beckett.......I find it hard to believe that Beckett fell apart in September because he didn't have his binky with me.......

    etc

    too many other factors.......I think you made a nice start to the analysis but I believe you've fallen short.......

    Then any stat should just be thrown out the window, since variables are present everywhere.

    Each IP caught can be about 4-5 plate appearances by the Ops on average. with a 40 inning sample, that is about 180 PAs...pretty big sample size.

    I've seen you judge pitchers on smaller samples than these, and woe and behold if any poster tried to tell you the reason Beckett's numbers are down this year or last September was because of the variables you just listed. Look at the line-up he had behind him, the horrible fielding Aviles and Ross out there, the tough line-ups he faced, the tough home park, the sun was in his eyes, the mound was muddy...
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]well that's all nice but there are other factors what teams were we playing were those teams hot or cold at the time did they have their "A" or "B" line up in at the time who were our fielders behind us - did we have our "A" or "B" team in the field (and  yes, I know it doesn't count errors but fielding isn't just about not getting an official E). what ballpark were we in then there's the entire TIME issue - for example, and I may not be accurate here so it's just an examle......but Tek caught Beckett for most of the year in 2011....but by September, Salty and Lava caught Beckett.......I find it hard to believe that Beckett fell apart in September because he didn't have his binky with me....... etc too many other factors.......I think you made a nice start to the analysis but I believe you've fallen short....... Then any stat should just be thrown out the window, since variables are present everywhere. Each IP caught can be about 4-5 plate appearances by the Ops on average. with a 40 inning sample, that is about 180 PAs...pretty big sample size. I've seen you judge pitchers on smaller samples than these, and woe and behold if any poster tried to tell you the reason Beckett's numbers are down this year or last September was because of the variables you just listed. Look at the line-up he had behind him, the horrible fielding Aviles and Ross out there, the tough line-ups he faced, the tough home park, the sun was in his eyes, the mound was muddy...
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    That's true.  You do need to look at other factors.

    There's something I just don't like about the catching stat we are discussing; I think it's because the other factors I listed are much more important than the catcher...From my personal experience only extremes in catchers have a direct impact....In other words a great catcher can help and a terrible catcher can hurt but there is no difference b/t a better than average and a below average catcher....I'll give it some more thought when I have some more time.
     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Salty petered out at the same exact time last year.  His uppercut swing looks like a ticket to many more strikeouts in his career. His lack of command as a catcher is also not encouraging.
     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Bobby Valentine will bench Salty when you pry him from his cold dead fingers.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    That's true.  You do need to look at other factors.

    Of course, and unlike harness and others, I have never attributed the full CERA differential between VTek and Salty or VMart or between any catchers as fully on the catcher. I know there are many variables as with a batter, fielder, or pitcher, but we tend to think that over time and large samp,e sizes, it kind of all evens out. The biggest adjustments are for maybe home parks and strength of schedule, but when comparing two playes on the same team (as in CERA) that is minimized as compared to trying to compare a hitter or pitcher with the A's vs the Sox hitter or pitcher.

    There's something I just don't like about the catching stat we are discussing; I think it's because the other factors I listed are much more important than the catcher...From my personal experience only extremes in catchers have a direct impact....In other words a great catcher can help and a terrible catcher can hurt but there is no difference b/t a better than average and a below average catcher....I'll give it some more thought when I have some more time.

    harness made a good point about the "difference a catcher makes", in that the biggest influence a catcher has on the pitcher is when the pitcher is not doing terrible or great (in a groove), but during the inbetween days and times. The catcher can help a pitcher regroup, or bear down, or refocus, or whatever you want to call it, but it's when a pitcher is not totally on top of his game, that an outside factor like who is his catcher can and probably does make a significant difference. It's not every game, every pitch, but it happens often enough that it shows up in large enough sample sizes.

    It could even be just a comfort factor, and have little to do with anything VTek does that Salty doesn't do. I just know "it" exists. I have been encouraged with Salty's improvement in this area since April 25th.

    Pre April 25:    7.23 CERA 
    Post April25: ~ 4.00 CERA
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]Salty petered out at the same exact time last year.  His uppercut swing looks like a ticket to many more strikeouts in his career. His lack of command as a catcher is also not encouraging.
    Posted by concord27[/QUOTE]
    Do you have any idea what you mean by "lack of command"? I mean specifically.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]That's true.  You do need to look at other factors. Of course, and unlike harness and others, I have never attributed the full CERA differential between VTek and Salty or VMart or between any catchers as fully on the catcher. I know there are many variables as with a batter, fielder, or pitcher, but we tend to think that over time and large samp,e sizes, it kind of all evens out. The biggest adjustments are for maybe home parks and strength of schedule, but when comparing two playes on the same team (as in CERA) that is minimized as compared to trying to compare a hitter or pitcher with the A's vs the Sox hitter or pitcher. There's something I just don't like about the catching stat we are discussing; I think it's because the other factors I listed are much more important than the catcher...From my personal experience only extremes in catchers have a direct impact....In other words a great catcher can help and a terrible catcher can hurt but there is no difference b/t a better than average and a below average catcher....I'll give it some more thought when I have some more time. harness made a good point about the "difference a catcher makes", in that the biggest influence a catcher has on the pitcher is when the pitcher is not doing terrible or great (in a groove), but during the inbetween days and times. The catcher can help a pitcher regroup, or bear down, or refocus, or whatever you want to call it, but it's when a pitcher is not totally on top of his game, that an outside factor like who is his catcher can and probably does make a significant difference. It's not every game, every pitch, but it happens often enough that it shows up in large enough sample sizes. It could even be just a comfort factor, and have little to do with anything VTek does that Salty doesn't do. I just know "it" exists. I have been encouraged with Salty's improvement in this area since April 25th. Pre April 25:    7.23 CERA  Post April25: ~ 4.00 CERA
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    For goodness sake, Moon, you know much more about our catchers than anyone else on this board, certainly more than does Cafardo, who allows for no improvement on Salty's part. Neither do a bunch of posters. Guys who had a close look -- like Danny and Southpaw and me -- reject the idea that Salty is a bum behind the plate. None of us has said that he is now a great catcher but rather that he's made remarkable strides in that direction. No one is predicting that he will become a great catcher, but, given his obvious improvement, especially in handling the staff, no outcome can be ruled out. That's the way it goes with catchers. 

     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty : For goodness sake, Moon, you know much more about our catchers than anyone else on this board, certainly more than does Cafardo, who allows for no improvement on Salty's part. Neither do a bunch of posters. Guys who had a close look -- like Danny and Southpaw and me -- reject the idea that Salty is a bum behind the plate. None of us has said that he is now a great catcher but rather that he's made remarkable strides in that direction. No one is predicting that he will become a great catcher, but, given his obvious improvement, especially in handling the staff, no outcome can be ruled out. That's the way it goes with catchers. 
    Posted by expitch[/QUOTE]

    There is certainly more room for improvement. He may or may not improve more, but it is undenyable: he has improved from the 2011 to April 25th Salty to the one post April 25, 2012.

    The stamina issue I mentioned earlier this year seems to still be a major issue, and if Salty is benched now, will not really be definitively answered this year. I'm not arguing to play him FT the rest of the way. He is slumping badly, and that is hurting the team. He hasn't hit an HR in 36 PAs- his one big strength. He's streaky, so we do run the risk of benching him right before he was about to start a hot streak, but now with Middlebrooks out, our outlook has changed for 2012. It does seem strange that Lava has been up for a while and only has 9 innings catching.

     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty : There is certainly more room for improvement. He may or may not improve more, but it is undenyable: he has improved from the 2011 to April 25th Salty to the one post April 25, 2012. The stamina issue I mentioned earlier this year seems to still be a major issue, and if Salty is benched now, will not really be definitively answered this year. I'm not arguing to play him FT the rest of the way. He is slumping badly, and that is hurting the team. He hasn't hit an HR in 36 PAs- his one big strength. He's streaky, so we do run the risk of benching him right before he was about to start a hot streak, but now with Middlebrooks out, our outlook has changed for 2012. It does seem strange that Lava has been up for a while and only has 9 innings catching.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    I guess that the sketchy use of Lavarnway behind the plate means that the Sox will go with Salty/Shoppach as long the club thinks it can contend for a wild card. Maybe it thinks that his defense has a long way to go.
    He's 2 for 18 ( I think ) as I write. Even though he's hit into some tough luck, the raw figures do not look good. Hard to say what the Sox have in mind for him, but he might be sent back to Pawtucket when Ortiz returns, only to come to Boston again in September.
     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty : For goodness sake, Moon, you know much more about our catchers than anyone else on this board, certainly more than does Cafardo, who allows for no improvement on Salty's part. Neither do a bunch of posters. Guys who had a close look -- like Danny and Southpaw and me -- reject the idea that Salty is a bum behind the plate. None of us has said that he is now a great catcher but rather that he's made remarkable strides in that direction. No one is predicting that he will become a great catcher, but, given his obvious improvement, especially in handling the staff, no outcome can be ruled out. That's the way it goes with catchers. 
    Posted by expitch[/QUOTE]

    At the break though, Salty was definitely being shopped, potentially even more than Shoppach. That tells us everything we need to know. Why would we normally want 2 RH catchers? They must have wanted to move Salty bad. And when looking at the last 9 weeks of data, it is easy to see why.

     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty : I guess that the sketchy use of Lavarnway behind the plate means that the Sox will go with Salty/Shoppach as long the club thinks it can contend for a wild card. Maybe it thinks that his defense has a long way to go. He's 2 for 18 ( I think ) as I write. Even though he's hit into some tough luck, the raw figures do not look good. Hard to say what the Sox have in mind for him, but he might be sent back to Pawtucket when Ortiz returns, only to come to Boston again in September.
    Posted by expitch[/QUOTE]

    They must not want him catching right now.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty : At the break though, Salty was definitely being shopped, potentially even more than Shoppach. That tells us everything we need to know. Why would we normally want 2 RH catchers? They must have wanted to move Salty bad. And when looking at the last 9 weeks of data, it is easy to see why.
    Posted by RedsoxProspects[/QUOTE]

    You mean the last 9 weeks CERA at 4.00, and prior to that 7.23 or the sub .700 OPS vs the .850+ OPS prior?

    Look, if Sox management thought a Lava/Shoppach would give them a better chance to win now or 9 weeks ago, they'd have made the move. Maybe Ben & BV put more weight on CERA than OPS. Maybe, they just don't think Lava is ready. Maybe it has nothing to do with anything either of us have said or thought of.

    It certainly looks like they might have tried hard to trade Salty at the deadline. The must not have liked the offer(s). Either Sox management htinks Salty is better than any GM looking for a catcher did, or they thought his value staying with the team was worth more than what was offered in return.
     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty : At the break though, Salty was definitely being shopped, potentially even more than Shoppach. That tells us everything we need to know. Why would we normally want 2 RH catchers? They must have wanted to move Salty bad. And when looking at the last 9 weeks of data, it is easy to see why.
    Posted by RedsoxProspects[/QUOTE
    Hard to say definitely why. Could be that the club figured it would get a better immediate return for Salty than for Lavarnway: a solid SP, for instance. Lavarnway is not tested as a ML catcher. We don't know anything about what other teams think.
    Shoppach was probably not shopped as hard, if at all, because he now is plugged, fairly or not, as a back-up. Teams normally don't trade for backups unless forced by injuries to so. 
    Even if Salty were being shopped ( sources? ), that would not tell us "everything we need to know." Far from it.
    Salty is in the doldrums at the plate. "Data," evidence, opinions about his defense have been argued to death. People can't agree on what to count, how to count, how to prioritize, or when to start counting, or even how much counting to do to get an accurate picture of where he stands now. ( I specified all those differences of opinion and methodology in a post. )  As I said, there is disagreement amongst experts on how to evaluate a catcher properly. In light of all this -- and the fact that three posters I trust, Moon, Danny, and Southpaw think Salty is doing OK, or better
    -- I'm more than reluctant to credit nine weeks of data ( whose? ) with anything close to a trustworthy judgment on Salty's defense. 
    You and I draw different inferences from what we read, hear, and see. You seem to have much more confidence in yours than I in mine. When it comes to personnel and personnel moves, the tea leaves can be misleading. To say the least. Right now, none of us on the outside can know what the Sox have in mind for the catching situation -- if there is yet a "mind."  

     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Lava and salty both in a funk..i guess Shopp should play more...
     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]Lava and salty both in a funk..i guess Shopp should play more...
    Posted by georom4[/QUOTE]

    Whatever they need to do to prepare for 2013 is what they should do.
     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I'm waiting for all the tiny sample size judges, many of which have cried for Lava all year, to speak up.
     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    What seems clear is:

    1) They tried hard to trade Salty hard at the break. Look at Cafardo's several posts on the subject. He said they"definitely" tried to trade Salty and that he was surprised how much they wanted to hold onto Shoppach. 

    2) NO ONE wanted Salty bad enough to make a decent offer. They called up Lavarnway the day of July 31st, probably to cover in case a catcher was traded ( I discount the "shin" story...he played after the shin got hurt and then we hear about the shin ). No deal happened.

    3) Who would want a guy who was dumped by Texas for 2 A level prospects and had just completed 2 MONTHS of .200 BA with a 34% SO percentage who also was among te worst n the league defensively.

    4) The only reason Salty is still here is because no one wanted him bad enough. The Redsox are hoping Salty can turn things around and be worth something again before year end. There is no point in describing Salty's CERA as improving when it is still at 4.64 for the year.

    5) Unless Salty improves before year end he is, yes, IS a non tender candidate next winter. It may not happen but it is very possible that he isn't even worth a contract offer when his arb value comes in at over $5 mil potentially.
     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]What seems clear is: 1) They tried hard to trade Salty hard at the break. Look at Cafardo's several posts on the subject. He said they"definitely" tried to trade Salty and that he was surprised how much they wanted to hold onto Shoppach.  2) NO ONE wanted Salty bad enough to make a decent offer. They called up Lavarnway the day of July 31st, probably to cover in case a catcher was traded ( I discount the "shin" story...he played after the shin got hurt and then we hear about the shin ). No deal happened. 3) Who would want a guy who was dumped by Texas for 2 A level prospects and had just completed 2 MONTHS of .200 BA with a 34% SO percentage who also was among te worst n the league defensively. 4) The only reason Salty is still here is because no one wanted him bad enough. The Redsox are hoping Salty can turn things around and be worth something again before year end. There is no point in describing Salty's CERA as improving when it is still at 4.64 for the year. 5) Unless Salty improves before year end he is, yes, IS a non tender candidate next winter. It may not happen but it is very possible that he isn't even worth a contract offer when his arb value comes in at over $5 mil potentially.
    Posted by RedsoxProspects[/QUOTE]
    To 2: Or ... the Sox put a value on Salty according to their own internal evaluation, and were not willing to part with him unless they received equal value in return.  Teams do that all the time. It doesn't mean they are desperate to get rid of someone. It can just as well mean that they think they have a valuable property and are willing to trade it for something they need more. The fact that no trade was made does not mean that other GM's don't think much of Salty. It could just as well mean that, for reasons of their own, they chose to retain the player(s) the Sox wanted in the deal. Standard procedure. What makes you think that you know what's going on in the Boston FO or in other ones?
    These matters are normally more complicated than you appear to think.
    To 3: I will stick with Moon on his demonstration that Salty is far, far from the worst in the league defensively. In my own way, and according to my own method of evaluation, I've come to the conclusion does a good job behind the plate. I've named those people. There are others. Yet you keep making the same categorical assertion as if there were no disagreement from other thoughful posters. I watch with an ex-catcher. He likes Salty on defense. So does McCarver. As Amp said elsewhere, let's move on. This debate is going nowhere.
    To 4: I have never heard anyone say that improvement should be disregarded because it has not fully compensated an earlier deficit. You might as well abandon evaluation. "Hey, this kid is hot. He's brought his BA up 25 points."
    "Yeah, but remember when he was hitting .225. If he had been hitting .250 then, he'd be hitting .275 now." "You mean the improvement of 25 points doesn't count for much. "Not much." "I gotta see a man about a horse, among other things." 
    To 5: The future will take of itself, as it usually does, for better or worse, or neither. 

     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]I'm waiting for all the tiny sample size judges, many of which have cried for Lava all year, to speak up.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    Or touted his AAA numbers to translate more or less NOW into something similar with the big club.
    Silence.

     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Wouldn't it be safe to say if we could land Brian McCann and the Braves asked for Salty in return that we would make that trade?
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Unless Salty improves before year end he is, yes, IS a non tender candidate next winter. It may not happen but it is very possible that he isn't even worth a contract offer when his arb value comes in at over $5 mil potentially.

    There is close to a zero chance they "non tender" salty this winter. Even if Salty wins a good arb pay raise, which he shouldn't if they are looking at all the numbers you are, he will still be easily tradable. Even  a streaky. high-k rate, low CS% catcher who ends up in the top 33-40 of catchers in OPS will be wnted by several MLB teams.

    You mentioned Salty was traded by Texas for two AA prospects, but now after 20+ Hrs, he's not worth holding onto to trade for even one AA prospect? You really think he is basically useless to every MLB team? 

    You must really think Ben & BV are complete idots for playing Salty over a decent catcher like Shoppach and one of the nations top catching prospects behind him. If they are the idots you think they are, they will likely keep Salty. If they have half a brain, they will at least get something for him via trade. If they are smart, they'd continue the stamina test in progress, and make an informed decision this winter.
     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    If he can catch 100 games a year a lot of teams would take him... he is not a bad catcher. I think Salty batting 8th or 9th is great... the fact he is in the 4, 5, and 6 slots shos how bad the team is lacking that 40/120 thunder bat.
     
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