Time to Bench Salty

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Age 39 ".300" OBP, no longer our starter and still better in almost every area than Salty

    VTek:  CS% last 3 seasons: 13%, 21%, 14%

    Salty his last 2: 31% & 18%

    There's one area, Salty is better.

     

    VTek: Last season at 39: 17 WP and 6 PB in 575 Innings

    Salty in 2012: 23 WPs and 6 PBs in 852 Innings.

    Advantage Salty.

     

    VTek: BA/OBP his last 4 years:

    .220/.313

    .209/.313

    .232/.293

    .221/.300

    Salty his last 2:

    .235/.288

    .222/.288

    Advantage VTek on OBP/Advanbtage Salty on BA (slight).

     

    VTek: SLG%: .359, .390, .473, .423 (Last 2 seasons in a reduced role)

    Salty: .450 and .454 in a more significant sample size. One more to Salty.

     

    VTek: RBI: 52 in his last 373 PAs and 103 in his last 798 PAs (146 in his last 1223)

    Salty: RBI 115 in his last 834 PAs. Call this about even.

     

    VTek blew Salty away on CERA, but he was not always great in this area until he was about 30-31 years old. VTek led the league in PBs at ages 27 and 28, and his CS% was about the same as Salty's with Boston.

     

    I'm not trying to say Salty is or will be as good as Vtek in his prime. Comparing him to the 36-39 year old Vtek is not fair to either one of them, but since you brought it up, I thought I had to set the record straight in a few areas.

    Salty's CERA greatly improved after 4/25/12. He compared very closely to Shoppach after that date. He killed Lava in pitcher by pitcher CERA numbers, but the sample sizes were very small.

    Extending Salty would be a risk for sure, and I am not saying it's a slam dunk, but if he has a fine season, (and I think he will)  he will cost much more than he will if we extend him now.

    Remember, I was all over trading him away last winter, but 2012 showede me a strong enough turn-around to be a believer. I do not see Lava ever approaching VTek's defense either, but from what I hear of Vazquez, he might make a good tandem with Salty over the next 2-4 years.

    It won't upset me if Salty is not extended, but if we don't plan on keeping him around, then we should deal him before we get nothing in return.

     




    If he does do good Moon, how much do you think the market would dictate? Say he hits something like .240AVG .305 OBP .480SLG. 21 HR...Whats that worth you think?

     

    Remember, although he would obviously cost more, I dont think he will be get double digits per year with those stats, which I think are close to what he will produce. That, and the Sox only have like 85M committed for 2014 (plus the possible 4M if Ortiz is on the DL for more than 20 days), so a bit of a raise for that production at the catcher position for 3-4 years wont strap the team in any way IMO.

     




    i think 3/15-21. 5-7 mil Per seems like a fair deal for both sides.

     




    See, thats what I was thinking so I dont think its a big deal to wait to see how he performs before talking extension. Its not like he could possibly command 10-12M per...More in the 6-8 range I would think.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Age 39 ".300" OBP, no longer our starter and still better in almost every area than Salty

    VTek:  CS% last 3 seasons: 13%, 21%, 14%

    Salty his last 2: 31% & 18%

    There's one area, Salty is better.

     

    VTek: Last season at 39: 17 WP and 6 PB in 575 Innings

    Salty in 2012: 23 WPs and 6 PBs in 852 Innings.

    Advantage Salty.

     

    VTek: BA/OBP his last 4 years:

    .220/.313

    .209/.313

    .232/.293

    .221/.300

    Salty his last 2:

    .235/.288

    .222/.288

    Advantage VTek on OBP/Advanbtage Salty on BA (slight).

     

    VTek: SLG%: .359, .390, .473, .423 (Last 2 seasons in a reduced role)

    Salty: .450 and .454 in a more significant sample size. One more to Salty.

     

    VTek: RBI: 52 in his last 373 PAs and 103 in his last 798 PAs (146 in his last 1223)

    Salty: RBI 115 in his last 834 PAs. Call this about even.

     

    VTek blew Salty away on CERA, but he was not always great in this area until he was about 30-31 years old. VTek led the league in PBs at ages 27 and 28, and his CS% was about the same as Salty's with Boston.

     

    I'm not trying to say Salty is or will be as good as Vtek in his prime. Comparing him to the 36-39 year old Vtek is not fair to either one of them, but since you brought it up, I thought I had to set the record straight in a few areas.

    Salty's CERA greatly improved after 4/25/12. He compared very closely to Shoppach after that date. He killed Lava in pitcher by pitcher CERA numbers, but the sample sizes were very small.

    Extending Salty would be a risk for sure, and I am not saying it's a slam dunk, but if he has a fine season, (and I think he will)  he will cost much more than he will if we extend him now.

    Remember, I was all over trading him away last winter, but 2012 showede me a strong enough turn-around to be a believer. I do not see Lava ever approaching VTek's defense either, but from what I hear of Vazquez, he might make a good tandem with Salty over the next 2-4 years.

    It won't upset me if Salty is not extended, but if we don't plan on keeping him around, then we should deal him before we get nothing in return.

     




    If he does do good Moon, how much do you think the market would dictate? Say he hits something like .240AVG .305 OBP .480SLG. 21 HR...Whats that worth you think?

     

    Remember, although he would obviously cost more, I dont think he will be get double digits per year with those stats, which I think are close to what he will produce. That, and the Sox only have like 85M committed for 2014 (plus the possible 4M if Ortiz is on the DL for more than 20 days), so a bit of a raise for that production at the catcher position for 3-4 years wont strap the team in any way IMO.

     




    i think 3/15-21. 5-7 mil Per seems like a fair deal for both sides.

     

     




    See, thats what I was thinking so I dont think its a big deal to wait to see how he performs before talking extension. Its not like he could possibly command 10-12M per...More in the 6-8 range I would think.

     

     



    Hey, whatever works best for the teams future.  I like Salty but the bottom line is not over spending on a long term contract if you have kids like Lav and Vasquez under control and in the mix.  If Salty can raise his OBP this season enough to make his overall skill set an advantage by all means bring him back if the price is right.  

     

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    If he does do good Moon, how much do you think the market would dictate? Say he hits something like .240AVG .305 OBP .480SLG. 21 HR...Whats that worth you think?

    That's not really better than 2012, unless his defense and CERA related skills keep improving.

    If he does all that, I think he might get $25M/3 as a FA next winter. If his defense stays the same, maybe $20M/3 or $25M/4.

     

    Remember, although he would obviously cost more, I dont think he will be get double digits per year with those stats, which I think are close to what he will produce. That, and the Sox only have like 85M committed for 2014 (plus the possible 4M if Ortiz is on the DL for more than 20 days), so a bit of a raise for that production at the catcher position for 3-4 years wont strap the team in any way IMO.

    I'd offer him an extension right now. I know it's risky, but he could be traded and partially paid for, if he never gets any better. I'd give him a $2M signing bonus plus $17M/3 or $22M/4. Good catchers are hard to find.



    i think 3/15-21. 5-7 mil Per seems like a fair deal for both sides.

    Here's what some catchers got this winter:

    Russell Martin  $17M/2

    Old Man AJ Pierzynski  $7.5M/1 (Talk about clubhouse wonders)

    Back-up David Ross $6.2M/2

    I'd say Salty is worth more than $6M/yr for 3 years, but it could be a mistake.

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

     

    Salt will start out hitting homers and everyone will think he has finally arrived, that he has become the great player Theo Epstein envisioned.  After a couple of months making believers of everyone, he'll spend the next few months strking out more and more until it seems like that's all he ever does, throwing balls intended for infielders to outfielders, and allowing perfect throws home to somehow sail through his body to the backstop.  Please Ben, trade this mediocrity in the early going when he's looking good, and play Ross Lava Vasquez, all far better options. 

     




    do you have any facts to back up your claims? especially ones about his defensive ability..

     




    Just the evidence of my eyes from watching him in all the games for a couple of years.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

     

    Salt will start out hitting homers and everyone will think he has finally arrived, that he has become the great player Theo Epstein envisioned.  After a couple of months making believers of everyone, he'll spend the next few months strking out more and more until it seems like that's all he ever does, throwing balls intended for infielders to outfielders, and allowing perfect throws home to somehow sail through his body to the backstop.  Please Ben, trade this mediocrity in the early going when he's looking good, and play Ross Lava Vasquez, all far better options. 

     




    do you have any facts to back up your claims? especially ones about his defensive ability..

     

     




    Just the evidence of my eyes from watching him in all the games for a couple of years.

     



    well then you'll forgive me if i disagree..

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

     

    Salt will start out hitting homers and everyone will think he has finally arrived, that he has become the great player Theo Epstein envisioned.  After a couple of months making believers of everyone, he'll spend the next few months strking out more and more until it seems like that's all he ever does, throwing balls intended for infielders to outfielders, and allowing perfect throws home to somehow sail through his body to the backstop.  Please Ben, trade this mediocrity in the early going when he's looking good, and play Ross Lava Vasquez, all far better options. 

     




    do you have any facts to back up your claims? especially ones about his defensive ability..

     

     




    Just the evidence of my eyes from watching him in all the games for a couple of years.

     

     



    well then you'll forgive me if i disagree..

     

     




    Nothing to forgive.  Everyone is entitled to his or her own opinion, absolutely.    Sometimes I'm wrong and sometimes I'm right.  When it's obvious that I'm wrong about someone, I admit it, say it out loud, "Boy, was I wrong about that guy!"  If I'm right, well, that's a nice change of pace. :)  Enjoy hearing everyone's point of view, and learn a lot on this forum.  Ignore the name-calling.  Hope Salt excels, just prefer one of the other guys as our main catcher.  Anyway, feeling more optimistic about the Sox now than I was this winter.  That may be delusional, but it's spring.  Love when the real games start, can't wait!

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Yes, spring is about here.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    bump

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I think Salty's done been talked out.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I think Salty's done been talked out.



    at least until the season starts and we can start picking apart his defense :)

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I think Salty's done been talked out.

     



    at least until the season starts and we can start picking apart his defense :)

     



    I'm sure the first passed ball or SB will get a post from softy. He loves the 1 game sample size definitive judgements.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I think Salty's done been talked out.

     



    at least until the season starts and we can start picking apart his defense :)

     

     



    I'm sure the first passed ball or SB will get a post from softy. He loves the 1 game sample size definitive judgements.

     



    there will also be a thread started by Bill stating that Salty should be traded and Ryan "fisk" lavarnway should be brought up in his palce...

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    there will also be a thread started by Bill stating that Salty should be traded and Ryan "fisk" lavarnway should be brought up in his palce...

    Funny how we haven't heard from BILL on "Fisk" Lavarnway much recently.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    there will also be a thread started by Bill stating that Salty should be traded and Ryan "fisk" lavarnway should be brought up in his palce...

    Funny how we haven't heard from BILL on "Fisk" Lavarnway much recently.



    and also didn't hear him talk about Iggy while he was slumping in the middle of ST. but as soon as he hit a triple the other day Bill is back on the bandwagon.


    as soon as lava hits a HR in AAA we will hear all about him again...

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I think Salty's done been talked out.

     



    at least until the season starts and we can start picking apart his defense :)

     

     



    I'm sure the first passed ball or SB will get a post from softy. He loves the 1 game sample size definitive judgements.

     

     



    there will also be a thread started by Bill stating that Salty should be traded and Ryan "fisk" lavarnway should be brought up in his palce...

     




    Actually didn't he already start one of those the first week of ST?

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I'm still not giving up on Lava, but I still think his best position will be DH. I'm wondering if him focusing so much on learning how to catch might derail him from becoming a success at his natural position.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I'm still not giving up on Lava, but I still think his best position will be DH. I'm wondering if him focusing so much on learning how to catch might derail him from becoming a success at his natural position.



    i've been wondering the same thing. look at his numbers when he was catching and DHing at the same time in 2011. Then in 2012 when he is made a FT catcher his offense suffered. I think he should be given a 1Bmans glove and work first base as well as DH. Him and Gomez could swap duties.

     
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  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I'm still not giving up on Lava, but I still think his best position will be DH. I'm wondering if him focusing so much on learning how to catch might derail him from becoming a success at his natural position.

     



    i've been wondering the same thing. look at his numbers when he was catching and DHing at the same time in 2011. Then in 2012 when he is made a FT catcher his offense suffered. I think he should be given a 1Bmans glove and work first base as well as DH. Him and Gomez could swap duties.

     



    It might be worth a try, and it's always nice to have a player that can act as a capable emergency 3rd catcher, or who can be used as the 3rd catcher if you need to PH for both catchers during one game.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Bump for reference source.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Reposted...

     

    CERA Update:

    Salty 4/2011-4/25/12: 953 Inn 4.88 CERA

    Salty 4/26/12-10/3/12: 774.2 Inn 4.43 CERA

     

    Shopp up to 4/25/2012: 63 Inn 4.14 CERA

    Shopp 4/26/12-trade: 293.1 Inn 3.93 CERA

     

    Lava 4/2011-4/25/12: 26.2 Inn 4.39 CERA

    Lava 4/26/12-10/3/12: 229 Inn 5.74 CERA

    As you can see, Salty did improve his CERA after 4/25/12 by 0.45 even though our staff is much worse than the one we had last year.

    Note: CERA should not be used in this manner to make definitive judgements, since some catchers have larger or smaller sample sizes with the various pitchers. I will give a pitcher by pitcher breakdown soon.

    The 2012 season totals:

    Salty   852 inn  4.82 CERA

    Shopp 370 inn  3.77 CERA

    Lava   219 inn  5.75 CERA

    The only way CERA should be used is to compare catchers from the same team against each other by looking pitcher by pitcher and comparing the numbers while noting large sample size differences and/or tiny sample sizes.

     fromLet's look pitcher by pitcher for the final 2012 (Inn) CERA (note: some tiny sample sizes): 

     with    all              Salty          Shopp        Lava

    Lester    4.82   (107) 5.62    (49) 3.70     (49) 4.01

    Buch     4.56      (76) 6.30    (78) 3.28     (36) 3.79

    Doub      4.86  (124) 4.95    (32) 4.18      (5) 7.20

    Beck      5.23    (58) 4.47    (58) 5.46     (11) 7.94

    Cook      5.65    (77) 5.28     (5) 3.60      (12) 8.76

    Aceves   5.36   (53) 4.92    (15) 4.11     (16) 8.04

    Morales  3.77   (52) 2.96    (22) 4.91      (3) 6.79

    Bard       6.22   (36) 5.05    (21) 5.91      (2) 27.00

    Atch       1.58   (37) 2.41        (9) 0.00      (4) 0.00

    Padilla    4.50   (26) 5.47    (20) 2.75      (4) 6.75

    Melan     6.20   (26) 9.35       (8) 2.35    (11) 1.59

    Dice-K    8.28  (27) 5.93      (5) 7.20     (13) 13.50

    Taz         1.43  (31) 1.40     (12) 1.50    (12) 1.50

    Albers    2.29   (22) 2.86   (17) 1.56

    Miller     3.35   (23) 3.91     (11) 3.97     (6) 0.00

    Mort      3.21   (29) 2.79       (7) 2.70     (6) 2.84

     

    Breaking it down:

    4- Salty way worse than the norm: Lester, Buchholtz, Padilla, Melancon

    3- Salty worse than the norm: Atchison, Miller, Albers

    1- Salty worse but close: Doubront

    1- Salty better but close: Tazawa

    4- Salty better than norm: Beckett, Cook, Aceves, Mortensen

    3- Salty way better than the norm: Morales, Bard, Dice-K

     

    Salty ended up better with 8 pitchers and worse with 8 pitchers.

    Better than I expected when the season began.

     

    Salty's 4.43 CERA after April 25, 2012 is really quite remarkable when you consider the staff we had this year, which included pitchers pitching out of their comfort roles (Aceves & Bard), pitchers losing velocity or pitch variety (Lester, Beckett and others), pitchers getting hurt (Bailey, Buch, Tazawa, Dice-K, Lackey, Hill, Padilla, Atchison and others), and pitchers getting traded (Beckett, Albers & Bowden).

     

    Salty has improved on handling the staff.

    Salty has greatly reduced his Passed Balls and Wild Pitches.

    Salty placed about in the middle the pack in catcher OPS (.742) & 3rd in C'er HRs.         (BTW, a .742 OPS is better than 22 teams' catcher OPS.)

    His bad CS% is partially the staff's fault and only amounted to about 8-9 more SBs than the league norm over the season.

    Salty is still about 2 or more years younger than VTek was when he became the CERA master (at about age 30-31).

    Those who pick on Salty have no idea just how bad MLb catching is these days. Salty is a plus over most team's total catching output. He is not a weakness, but has had more posts bashing him than he deserved.

     

    Some key final numbers on Salty and the state of MLB catching these days:

    Salty's .742 OPS ranks him 14th out of the top 30 ML catchers by PAs in 2012.                

    9th in SLG .454. 

    25th in OBP at .288. 

    3rd in HRs with 25.

    However, when you compare these numbers vs MLB team catching numbers:

    Salty's...

    .742 OPS is better than 21 team catcher OPS.

    .454 SLG is better than 25 team catcher SLG.

    His .288 OBP is actually better than 5 team OBP and .001 away from it being 6 teams.

    Folks, 13 teams have a team catcher BA below .228! 16 are below .240.

     

    On fielding:

    Fangraphs has a fielding ranking involved in their value determination. Salty placed  13th out of 30 with a -0.3 number.

    Only 10 catchers with 600+ innings caught have less Passed Balls than Salty, and 4 of then caught significantly less innings than Salty's 852.

    Only 8 catchers allowed less than 23 WPs this year, and 5 of them had less innings.

    As bad as Salty's CS% was this year, there were 4 catchers worse than him and several more pretty close. 

     

    CERA:

    Improved his CERA by about 0.40 after April 25th from where it was from 2011 up to 4/25/12. This with several pitchers hurt, traded or out of their comfort roles.

     

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Good to put all these numbers at the end here so we can do a quick reference and compare what hes doing this year. Thanks Moon.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Lavarnway struck out in 4 out of 5 AB yesterday. He obviously was learning the wrong things under Salty's tutelage!

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Lavarnway struck out in 4 out of 5 AB yesterday. He obviously was learning the wrong things under Salty's tutelage!




    Lavarnway needs to stop catching and put on a 1b mit and DH as well. His best asset was his offense and since he started catching full time its been non-existent. Vasquez is already much better than him and should pass him on the depth chart this year.

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Lavarnway struck out in 4 out of 5 AB yesterday. He obviously was learning the wrong things under Salty's tutelage!

     




    Lavarnway needs to stop catching and put on a 1b mit and DH as well. His best asset was his offense and since he started catching full time its been non-existent. Vasquez is already much better than him and should pass him on the depth chart this year.

     

     



    i agree. it's time to move him, especially with the emergence of Vasquez and Swihart not too far behind that.

     
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