Time to Bench Salty

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to S5's comment:

    Moon, You're a numbers guy and it's not my intention to minimize what you do here.  You probably bring more to the board in terms of stats than anyone else, and I ususally agree with your assessments.

    In this case I think you're looking at one side of the coin.  The offensive side.  I'm not a numbers guru for a variety of reasons but my eyes tell me that in spite of the fact that he's better than average - not exactly a ringing endorsement but something we can live with - offensively my eyes tell me that his defense struggles.

    Is it my imagination, or does he have A LOT of PB's?  And when was the last time you saw him make an accurate throw to 2nd base?  Calling a game is subjective.  We don't know what goes on between the catcher and the pitcher and we don't know how many times the pitcher misses the spot the catcher designates so I stay out of things like that. 

    I'm "old school" and believe in defense Up The Middle.  Defensively the Sox have an average-to-better SS, a better than average 2B and a better than average CF (the arm not withstanding). The glaring deficiency is that defensively the Sox appear to have a worse-than-average catcher.

    Or - is he still living in the shadow of Jason Veritek so nothing he does is going to be good enough?



    I have contended that Salty is about average on defense, including the handling of the staff. His PB rate is high this year, but last year it was below the norm, so I'm cutting him a little slack there.

    Stats on catching are not very good indicators, and most fans look at errors and CS%. I listed out the PB+WP per innings caught for 2012 9somewhere in these pages) and it showed Salty was a top 5 catcher in this area. Someone else posted that Salty has been rated very highly in framing pitches, but I can not confirm this data. All in all, I think salty is not as bad as many here thinks he is on defense.

    He's doing better with the staff than 2011 and the start of 2012, but he still needs further growth. The fact that he is improving gives me hope that he will continue growth.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Well, since about 75% of games are vs RHP, hes considered a starter. I dont know any catcher that plays even 90% of the games. 75% is about the norm.

    Salty is 13th in PAs from 2012 to 2013. Point well taken.

     

    So if Salty could get a 4 year deal, which is very possible, then why not? Especially if his offensive numbers keep going up.

    I doubt salty gets a 4 year offer at $13M a year, but if it's close, he may be worthy of a QO this winter. I just don't see catchers making that much.

     

    I would look at what teams need a cacther, where they are in the draft next year, who else is available this year, and how great of a need they have. All those things come into play.

    After McCann, theres not much out there but older PT veteran types and a couple younger guys like Jesus Flores that cant even reach 600OPS. Kurt Suzuki is there if the team doesnt sign the 8.5M option, but He'll be 31. Salty and McCann are the best options.

    I agree, and think McCan will be overpaid by more than Salty.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to S5's comment:

     

    Moon, You're a numbers guy and it's not my intention to minimize what you do here.  You probably bring more to the board in terms of stats than anyone else, and I ususally agree with your assessments.

    In this case I think you're looking at one side of the coin.  The offensive side.  I'm not a numbers guru for a variety of reasons but my eyes tell me that in spite of the fact that he's better than average - not exactly a ringing endorsement but something we can live with - offensively my eyes tell me that his defense struggles.

    Is it my imagination, or does he have A LOT of PB's?  And when was the last time you saw him make an accurate throw to 2nd base?  Calling a game is subjective.  We don't know what goes on between the catcher and the pitcher and we don't know how many times the pitcher misses the spot the catcher designates so I stay out of things like that. 

    I'm "old school" and believe in defense Up The Middle.  Defensively the Sox have an average-to-better SS, a better than average 2B and a better than average CF (the arm not withstanding). The glaring deficiency is that defensively the Sox appear to have a worse-than-average catcher.

    Or - is he still living in the shadow of Jason Veritek so nothing he does is going to be good enough?

     



    I have contended that Salty is about average on defense, including the handling of the staff. His PB rate is high this year, but last year it was below the norm, so I'm cutting him a little slack there.

     

    Stats on catching are not very good indicators, and most fans look at errors and CS%. I listed out the PB+WP per innings caught for 2012 9somewhere in these pages) and it showed Salty was a top 5 catcher in this area. Someone else posted that Salty has been rated very highly in framing pitches, but I can not confirm this data. All in all, I think salty is not as bad as many here thinks he is on defense.

    He's doing better with the staff than 2011 and the start of 2012, but he still needs further growth. The fact that he is improving gives me hope that he will continue growth.




    Heres a nice piece on pitch framing Moon

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15093

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Well, since about 75% of games are vs RHP, hes considered a starter. I dont know any catcher that plays even 90% of the games. 75% is about the norm.

    Salty is 13th in PAs from 2012 to 2013. Point well taken.

     

    So if Salty could get a 4 year deal, which is very possible, then why not? Especially if his offensive numbers keep going up.

    I doubt salty gets a 4 year offer at $13M a year, but if it's close, he may be worthy of a QO this winter. I just don't see catchers making that much.

     I dont think he has to get 13M per Moon. If he got a total deal of, lets say4 36M, why would he turn that down to take 14M for 1 year?

    I would look at what teams need a cacther, where they are in the draft next year, who else is available this year, and how great of a need they have. All those things come into play.

    After McCann, theres not much out there but older PT veteran types and a couple younger guys like Jesus Flores that cant even reach 600OPS. Kurt Suzuki is there if the team doesnt sign the 8.5M option, but He'll be 31. Salty and McCann are the best options.

    I agree, and think McCan will be overpaid by more than Salty.

     




     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I have contended that Salty is about average on defense, including the handling of the staff. His PB rate is high this year, but last year it was below the norm, so I'm cutting him a little slack there.

     

    Stats on catching are not very good indicators, and most fans look at errors and CS%. I listed out the PB+WP per innings caught for 2012 9somewhere in these pages) and it showed Salty was a top 5 catcher in this area. Someone else posted that Salty has been rated very highly in framing pitches, but I can not confirm this data. All in all, I think salty is not as bad as many here thinks he is on defense.

    He's doing better with the staff than 2011 and the start of 2012, but he still needs further growth. The fact that he is improving gives me hope that he will continue growth.

     




    Heres a nice piece on pitch framing Moon

     

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15093

     

    This article shows Salty placed 9th out of 45 catchers in Runs saved per 120 by pitch framing skills. (10 runs saved per 120 is pretty significant, when you consider many are negative.)

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I have contended that Salty is about average on defense, including the handling of the staff. His PB rate is high this year, but last year it was below the norm, so I'm cutting him a little slack there.

     

    Stats on catching are not very good indicators, and most fans look at errors and CS%. I listed out the PB+WP per innings caught for 2012 9somewhere in these pages) and it showed Salty was a top 5 catcher in this area. Someone else posted that Salty has been rated very highly in framing pitches, but I can not confirm this data. All in all, I think salty is not as bad as many here thinks he is on defense.

    He's doing better with the staff than 2011 and the start of 2012, but he still needs further growth. The fact that he is improving gives me hope that he will continue growth.

     




    Heres a nice piece on pitch framing Moon

     

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15093

     

    This article shows Salty placed 9th out of 45 catchers in Runs saved per 120 by pitch framing skills. (10 runs saved per 120 is pretty significant, when you consider many are negative.)

     




    exactly. Maybe some should do a little more homework before they totally bash him. How many here have said hes no good at framing pitches? Now, hes not going to do a knock out job every time, but this shows that more times than not, hes one of the better framers in the game and has saved us runs.

    Thats why I laugh at some that just chalk Salty up as a bad catcher. Hes not great, Ive already said that. But hes a lot better than he gets credit for.

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I have contended that Salty is about average on defense, including the handling of the staff. His PB rate is high this year, but last year it was below the norm, so I'm cutting him a little slack there.

     

    Stats on catching are not very good indicators, and most fans look at errors and CS%. I listed out the PB+WP per innings caught for 2012 9somewhere in these pages) and it showed Salty was a top 5 catcher in this area. Someone else posted that Salty has been rated very highly in framing pitches, but I can not confirm this data. All in all, I think salty is not as bad as many here thinks he is on defense.

    He's doing better with the staff than 2011 and the start of 2012, but he still needs further growth. The fact that he is improving gives me hope that he will continue growth.

     




    Heres a nice piece on pitch framing Moon

     

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15093

     

    This article shows Salty placed 9th out of 45 catchers in Runs saved per 120 by pitch framing skills. (10 runs saved per 120 is pretty significant, when you consider many are negative.)

     




    exactly. Maybe some should do a little more homework before they totally bash him. How many here have said hes no good at framing pitches? Now, hes not going to do a knock out job every time, but this shows that more times than not, hes one of the better framers in the game and has saved us runs.

    Thats why I laugh at some that just chalk Salty up as a bad catcher. Hes not great, Ive already said that. But hes a lot better than he gets credit for.

     

    There are many aspects to being a great catcher. 

    On offense, it doesn't take much to be above average as compared to the league average at that position.  (about a .315 OBP and .395 SLG% is the catcher norm in MLB the last 3 years)

    On defense, there is a lot of gray area, and areas hard to quantify with data, and then there is the handling of the staff issue that has been hotly debated for years.

    Here are some areas a catcher can influence:

    Blocking WPs and limiting PBs: Salty has 5 PBs and 13 WPs in just 257 innings this year, but he had one of the best rates last year (5 PBs and 16 WPs in 852 innings). It's no wonder this area is a highly disputed skill for him.

    Fielding plays around the plate: Not a  lot of fielding business around the plate, but those two bang-bang plays at the plate in Seattle last year left a bad tatse in many poster's minds.

    Framing Pitches: Perhaps his size limits an umps view and helps him get more calls than the norm, but the data shows he's in the top third at pitch framing (saving about a run every 10 games).

    Throwing out Baserunners: There are only about 2-3 catchers with worse CS rates than Salty.

    Leadership and Setting the pace and tone of a game: Very hard to gauge.

    Handling the staff: CERA and related data (such as opponent's OPS against) is very limited in proper useage and misleading in several ways. That being said, many Sox pitchers are doing better with Salty this year and at the end of last year than beforehand. Also, the pitcher by pitcher differentials between Salty and Ross are not as negative as with Shoppach and VTek.

     

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    What a dumb move by farrell not playing Lav tonight. Salty just cant hit LHP. whats he got, just under a .500OPS against them? Not sure what Farrell was doing...

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    What a dumb move by farrell not playing Lav tonight. Salty just cant hit LHP. whats he got, just under a .500OPS against them? Not sure what Farrell was doing...



    I agree. Maybe he wanted Doubront to have a catcher he knows. That's the only reason I can come up with.

     
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  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    Lav should catch the next month, how else can we move forward?



    Makes sense: let's bench one of our hottest players who plays a position that most teams have a sub .700 OPS at.

    7 days:

    Papi  1.214

    Salty  .978

    Pedey  .829

    Nava   .805

     

    14 days:

    Pedey  1.005

    Salty  .900

    Papi  .887

    Will   .822

    Nava   .814

     

    28 days:

    Ross  1.389

    Papi   .996

    Pedey   .934

    Salty   .911

    Drew   .863

     

    Great idea!

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

     

    Lav should catch the next month, how else can we move forward?

     



    Makes sense: let's bench one of our hottest players who plays a position that most teams have a sub .700 OPS at.

     

    7 days:

    Papi  1.214

    Salty  .978

    Pedey  .829

    Nava   .805

     

    14 days:

    Pedey  1.005

    Salty  .900

    Papi  .887

    Will   .822

    Nava   .814

     

    28 days:

    Ross  1.389

    Papi   .996

    Pedey   .934

    Salty   .911

    Drew   .863

     

    Great idea!

     




    Lav should catch vs LHP even if its consecutive days. Salty just has too tough a time against them. Hes a beast against RHP though. I understand some pitchers being more comfortable, but that shouldnt matter sometimes when its the best overall move for the team. Lavarnway is capable enough.

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Lav should catch vs LHP even if its consecutive days. Salty just has too tough a time against them. Hes a beast against RHP though. I understand some pitchers being more comfortable, but that shouldnt matter sometimes when its the best overall move for the team. Lavarnway is capable enough.

    I never said I agreed with the choice or the possible reason they started Salty I mentioned. That being said, Salty did end up getting a nice BB when we needed it, but he could have done that as a PH'er in the 8th.

    I have often said Salty should never start vs a LH'd starter.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Lav should catch vs LHP even if its consecutive days. Salty just has too tough a time against them. Hes a beast against RHP though. I understand some pitchers being more comfortable, but that shouldnt matter sometimes when its the best overall move for the team. Lavarnway is capable enough.

    I never said I agreed with the choice or the possible reason they started Salty I mentioned. That being said, Salty did end up getting a nice BB when we needed it, but he could have done that as a PH'er in the 8th.

    I have often said Salty should never start vs a LH'd starter.

     




    I know you did say that. Sorry if what I said insunuated that. I agree, that BB he had was important in that situation.

     

    I think my comment was more that fact that I would rather they put him in a better situation to succeed and also to utilize Lavarnway while hes here for a short time.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Lav should catch vs LHP even if its consecutive days. Salty just has too tough a time against them. Hes a beast against RHP though. I understand some pitchers being more comfortable, but that shouldnt matter sometimes when its the best overall move for the team. Lavarnway is capable enough.

    I never said I agreed with the choice or the possible reason they started Salty I mentioned. That being said, Salty did end up getting a nice BB when we needed it, but he could have done that as a PH'er in the 8th.

    I have often said Salty should never start vs a LH'd starter.

     




    I know you did say that. Sorry if what I said insunuated that. I agree, that BB he had was important in that situation.

     

    I think my comment was more that fact that I would rather they put him in a better situation to succeed and also to utilize Lavarnway while hes here for a short time.



    Lava hits lefties pretty well. He should have started. But, it was nice seeing Doubront not walk the whole ballpark for once. Not saying the results would have been different with Lava, but I do think Salty called a good game last night.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Salty did very well catching Doubie. I thought about it and realized that it was the best move to put him in with Doubront regardless of 2 LHP in a row. He didnt do too bad against them either.

    It also says something to how they feel about Lavarnway IMO. I know with a guy as good as Vasquez in the system that they dont view lavarnway as the next Sox catcher. The question is, how do they view him going forward? DH/C/1b? Trade bait?

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I was hoping they would play Lavarnway tonight also. He has looked decent offensively in his mlb AB this year and defensively as well. His minor league numbers are good this year. He appears healthy. Salty hurt himself last night and has been playing a lot. They do not appear to be looking at Lavarnway as being more than a fill in and I think that is short sighted. Ross will be back soon. 

    Salty knows he needs to produce and if he plays Lavarnway doesn't get a chance. That could be part of this dynamic a little also. The manager should possibly see that and step in. Give Salty a short rest after hurting himself last night and give Lavarnway a shot before they send him down again.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Vasquez is looking good. If we lost a catcher now to injury I don't think it would hurt us much. Lavarnway could step in with Vasquez as decent back up. Let's keep Salty fresh before he does his 2nd half swoon again. Do you think they are actually thinking Salty could get a qualifying offer and net a pick if he leaves? Hard to think that could happen but I guess it is hypothetically possible. 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    He would have to get a lot of AB and then also do very well to pull that off.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Vasquez is looking good. If we lost a catcher now to injury I don't think it would hurt us much. Lavarnway could step in with Vasquez as decent back up. Let's keep Salty fresh before he does his 2nd half swoon again. Do you think they are actually thinking Salty could get a qualifying offer and net a pick if he leaves? Hard to think that could happen but I guess it is hypothetically possible. 

     




    Its a long shot of course. But it depends on a lot of things. Who has a need and how much, where they are in the draft in 2014, who signs McCann (hes the only better option out there IMO between young catchers) and how Salty finishes the year. Theres more involved and it would certainly be a calculated risk, but if he finishes with very good offensive numbers, they very well could consider it. Im not saying its likely, but possible if everything lines up right.

     

    I think he'll get a 3-4 year deal regardless from someone. Maybe even NYY.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Let's keep Salty fresh before he does his 2nd half swoon again. Do you think they are actually thinking Salty could get a qualifying offer and net a pick if he leaves? Hard to think that could happen but I guess it is hypothetically possible. 

    This is my take:

    Ben is going to wait until after May or June, and then he will trade Salty.

    He always has a big month between May and July.

    Salty in May:

    2012: .308/.345/.628/.973

    2013: .313/.377/.542/.919

    Salty in June:

    2011:  .327/.407/.538/.945

    Salty in July:

    2010: .893

     

    He's played in 37 games so far (this year (31 GS) and has 135 PAs.

    Last year by May 23rd he was at: 34 gm (28 GS) and 113 PAs.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I can't see imagine them trading our starting catcher this year unless we fall way out of it.  As we've discussed many times, the Red Sox wanted to give the fans some hopes of a playoff spot this year, and so far they have.  Trading Salty would be a move 'for the future' that would totally contradict that.  

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    I can't see imagine them trading our starting catcher this year unless we fall way out of it.  As we've discussed many times, the Red Sox wanted to give the fans some hopes of a playoff spot this year, and so far they have.  Trading Salty would be a move 'for the future' that would totally contradict that.  



    Seems like most fans here think he's a bum, a butcher, or a slacker.

    When I say a player might be traded, I'm not usually thinking he'll be handed away for nothing. If Ross is healthy, they may think a Ross/Lava platoon is not a big drop off offensively, and more playing time by Ross (mostly vs RHPs where he is surprisingly slightly better offensively) will keep the defense at least even.

    I'm not for trading Salty, unless Ben knows he's not going to extend or re-sign him this winter. It's about improving our future outlook, but I understand the here  and now is on the front burner for many here and maybe in the Sox organization.

    One issue to be concerned about is the rule 5 situation this team will face in the winter. We could be proactive about it and try and package 2-3 players for one player, or trade one player for a prospect who does not have to be on the 40 man roster for 2014.

    If we are out of it by the deadline, the choices are easy. If we are almost out of it, I'd make the moves anyway. If we are very much in it, my guess is Ben will not make a trade like this, unless the return player can help us now as well as in the future, so as to offset the loss of Salty to the 25 man roster. If Ben or you expect another Salty late season fizzle, then trading him after June may actually be an addition by subtraction. The fact that Salty has slumped badly for 2 straight season, and yet he is playing more now than every before, it makes me think Ben may be milking everything he can get out of Salty, building up his numbers, and then pulling the trigger on a multiple player deal with a contender. He could then flip the prospect and/or add some blocked prospects of our own for a a player that helps us this year and beyond.

    Although I do not consider Iggy "blocked", it seems Ben will always think someone else is better, so he'd be in the mix along with Aceves, Miller, Wilson, or perhaps any player who has an expiring contract this winter or next.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    bump the bozo

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Unless they are without a doubt out of contention, salty is probably going nowhere. And he shouldnt be if they are in it. To disprupt the pitcher/catcher dynamic regardless how you feel about him is not the position to tinker with unless youve packed it in.

     
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