Time to Bench Salty

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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    No question expitch...you are flexible. When things change you always get it right. Whatever right is at the time. Etch a sketch the rest of it.
     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]No question expitch...you are flexible. When things change you always get it right. Whatever right is at the time. Etch a sketch the rest of it.
    Posted by RedsoxProspects[/QUOTE]
    This is your second thrust of sophomoric sarcasm at me. 
    You go off like a kid's pop gun. Got any more?

     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]I quote myself: "IF ANYTHING , my position is proving correct". And I'm the one ranting when you guys keep holding onto Salty right down until he's the worst catcher in baseball apparently? We both have had our positions. We both have been entrenched to a large degree. I had mine when Salty was almost an all star. All of you guys were fawning over him. Now when my projection is looking a whole lot more accurate I'm the one ranting? Yet again, you guys got it wrong. Just admit it and move on. Salty has been in the league 4 years now and is proving to be a bad defensive catcher with very poor on base skills who can maybe have some good HR pop from time to time. And he is starting to cost a lot more next winter. Time to sell as high as we can and it sure looks like Cherington got that memo.
    Posted by RedsoxProspects[/QUOTE
    Maybe you can't read. Maybe you're terminally obdurate.
    Two things:
    MOON AND I AND OTHERS DISAGREE WITH YOU ABOUT SALTY'S DEFENSE. THAT, APPARENTLY, IS IMPERMISSIBLE.
    BOTH MOON AND I ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT SALTY WILL BE TRADED OR DEMOTED OR.... NEITHER OF US IS TEARING HIS HAIR OUT OVER THAT POSSIBILITY.
    WE BOTH AND OTHERS LIKE THE WAY SALTY HAS COME ALONG THIS YEAR ON DEFENSE, ESPECIALLY IN HIS HANDLING OF THE STAFF. IF YOU DON'T, TOUGH TOPLESS.  SAME TO OTHERS WHO SHARE YOUR VIEWS. THERE HAS BEEN A STALEMATE ON THIS ISSUE FOR MONTHS. DO YOU REALLY THINK THAT YOUR COMING DOWN ON ONE SIDE BREAKS THE STALEMATE? LOOKS LIKE YOU DO.
    YOU ARE PROJECTING. WE AREN'T. THAT IS WHERE MATTERS STAND.
    TAKE "RANT" UP WITH MOON.   HE WAS THE ONE WHO USED IT. PROPERLY

     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    It takes 2 to tango and so far expitch, you have struck out over and over. Salty is not even close to a good defensive catcher for all the reasons I've cited which YOU GUYS ignore. I said trade Salty high over 2 months ago and that, quite frankly, was a heck of a lot better call than yours. You guys were saying we should maybe extend him! I have a right to my opinion and I happen to think LOGIC was on my side, You guys are the ones saying things like "try and follow this" and citing my supposed lack of logic and calling me "terminally obdurate". No one died and appointed you, Moon or anyone else here as final arbitors of logic on this forum. Get used to it. Act accordingly. Get real.
     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Call my opinions rants just because they are different than yours, especially in instances where the data is very clear I'M RIGHT and yu will get a discussion. This isn't a Crawford is overpaid discussion. There are clearly 2 sides to this issue. You guys just don't want to hear it when you got it wrong.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty : I'll give you all the REAL stats that shows Red Sox Starting Pitchers do better with Shoppach. Not these BS stats you throw out there OK? HRs allowed in innings pitch, Opponents Batting Average, Hits allowed, Walks, K's. These are stats are real, cant make them up. All the Starters do better with Shoppach, all of them. Since Shoppach has been Bucholz's regular Catcher he has pitched phenomenal.
    Posted by bobbysu[/QUOTE]

    OPS is OBP + SLG%. It is "real".

    It's as real as BA, BBs, Ks, etc..., and all Sox pitchers don't do better with Shoppach in these stats as well, so get real.

    As for when Buch turned it around and became a "phenominal" pitcher, have a look see:

    After a distastrous 2008 season with a 6.95 ERA...

    2009:  4,21  BA  .256  K/BB 1.89
    VMart  4.34  BA  .247  K/BB 1.97
    VTek   3.72  BA  .263  K/BB  1.20

    2010:  2.33  BA  .226  K/BB  1.79
    VMart  2.13  BA  .226  K/BB  1.78

    2011:  3.48  BA  .241  K/BB  1.94
    Salty    3.52  BA .210  K/BB  2.22
    VTek   3.38   BA .338  K/BB  1.13

    2012:  4.24  BA .256  K/BB   2.05
    Shopp  3.23  BA .217  K/BB  2.79
    Salty    5.70  BA  .306 K/BB  1.73

    As for all pitchers do better with Shoppach?
    Beckett
    Salty   4.47
    Shopp 5.46

    or is ERA not a valid stat for you?

    K/BB
    Salty  3.14 (44 Ks in 58.1 IP)
    Shop  2.21 (42 Ks in 57.2 IP)

    Looks like you were wrong on Beckett. He is one of our pitchers , isn't he?

    Does Morales pitch for us?

    He does way way way better with Salty in just about every stat imaginable:

    Salty  2.33  BA .194  K 48  HR 2 in 46.1 IP
    Shop  4.91  BA .238  K 22  HR 5 in 22 IP
     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]It takes 2 to tango and so far expitch, you have struck out over and over. Salty is not even close to a good defensive catcher for all the reasons I've cited which YOU GUYS ignore. I said trade Salty high over 2 months ago and that, quite frankly, was a heck of a lot better call than yours. You guys were saying we should maybe extend him! I have a right to my opinion and I happen to think LOGIC was on my side, You guys are the ones saying things like "try and follow this" and citing my supposed lack of logic and calling me "terminally obdurate". No one died and appointed you, Moon or anyone else here as final arbitors of logic on this forum. Get used to it. Act accordingly. Get real.
    Posted by RedsoxProspects[/QUOTE]
    I had pegged you emotional age at about 15, Boom, but that was obviously too high. You should have listened to Amp. 

     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty : Do not make that bet if money is involved. I've given my opinion many times on Salty's handling of pitchers. So has Moon. So has Danny Cater. So has Southpaw. You have some catching up to do.
    Posted by expitch[/QUOTE]

    Im going to chime in one final time on this topic...I started to comment here because what I was seeing was what danny, ex, and Moon were, which was a catcher improving...IMPROVING...I never said, nor do I believe ex, moon or danny have said, that Salty was the catcher of the future...He was improving, simple as that and we made very valid arguments.
    Personally, I think he hit a wall. First full season back there. people can say hes been in the league for 4 years, but thats not looking at the full picture and Im not going to explain it to anyone again because im tired of doing so. maybe cause it doesnt involve numbers, I dont know. I know what certain stats say and I know what my eyes see...There is truth to both, but for a good 2-3 month period salty was really looking good no matter what older stats said...As of late the K rate has gone through the roof and he looked like he was tired. Thats why I think Lav was brought up.
    Ive held the position that if you can improve the team by trading a player than everyone is tradable, including Salty. Lav has shown absolutely NO OFFENSE since coming up. Thats not to say he wont because I believe he will. Its just funny how everyone wanted this kid playing a while ago because of his offense which is nowhere to be found...Yet.
    Bottom line for me is I would be fine with a Salty/Lavarnway combo. Over the long term Shoppach will kill this lineup offensively IMO, and i dont think his defense or game calling is so much of a difference that it will hurt them if he goes.
    I would also be fine with them trading Salty if they get a solid return that will improve this team. I guess we will just have to wait and see what happens this offseason, or maybe even sooner than that...
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Try to follow this:

    1) I've been saying trade Salty for over a year and most ardently for the past 2 months. What has he done since that time:

    I wanted Salty traded last winter also, based mostly on his "high stock value" and his horrible record with our staff- to me the most important job of a catcher. My position did not change in April. However, unlike you and others, I did not let my own opinion and belief cloud my judgement and I actually watched the games after April 25th. 

    You may want to deny it or stick your head in the sand, but there has been a rather large sample size after April 25th that shows that Salty has vastly improved his numbers with our pitching staff to the point that he has done just as well as Shoppach for over 15 weeks. Yes, Shoppach, the guy you have been gushing over all day.

    It's your right to deny this, or think his career stats or last 2 years stats tell the true story and 15 weeks are a fluke. But, don't pretend you have the corner on the situation, because you clearly do not, as evidence by your assumptions based on a beat writer's ravings.

    a) Horrible defense, CERA, BA, Strikeouts, ....etc. He is in the past 9 weeks averaging less than a .200 BA with very low OBP and overall performance. At no point in the past 9 weeks can we even remotely look at Salty as having performed up to par. 

    Funny how you are willing to use the past 9 weeks to bash Salty's offense, but refuse to even acknowledge once in all of your ranting, Salty's inmproved work with the staff over the last 9 weeks or 15 weeks. His CERA pre-April 25th was 7.23. After April 25th it is now under 4.00. At least be consistent with your time frames of harsh judgements.

    And for some reason, Cherington apparently listened to GM's asking for Shoppach and immediately tried to ge them to take Salty. 

    Now, you are twisting the story even more. And, even if your story is true, it doesn't necessarily mean what you think it means. Maybe they wanted Shoppach and a top prospect for someone, but Ben countered with salty and a low prospect. We don't know, so making assumptions based on smoke is baseless.

    Maybe they were trying to sell high. They didn't trade either of them, but clearly tried to do so.

    "Clearly" to you and Cardafo. We don't know if Ben ever picked up the phone to tyry and trade Salty, but apparently according to Nick, someone called Ben and asked about Shopp and who knows who else, and Ben tried to offer Salty and who knows who else for who knows who. That's real "clear" to me.

     Of course they didn't get the return they wanted! Of course they valued both catchers at least some. Nonetheless, according to reports they wanted to trade Salty more...

    We don't know how hard Ben tried to trade either of these two, and certainly not to what degree. You are making an assumption.

     ...even though he was:

    1) Better optimized for the team as a LH catcher.

    He's a switch hitter, but yes, he clearly hits RHPs better.

    2) Was the starter

    And still is even with lava on the roster.

    3) Was under more years of control.

    Yes, at a higher cost.

    Can you guys follow what I'M SAYING? 

    Yes, you have repeated it several times, and the condescension is not helping. Just because we disagree, doesn't mean we lack comprehension skills. You act like if we just "understood" your point, we'd have to agree, since it is so demonstrably right any fool could see the truth.

    You have your position and I have mine. If anything, my position is proving correct.

    Your position was to trade him "over a year ago". Are you saying his stock is lower now than last August? Are you saying hitting 20 Hrs in less than 400 PAs and greatly improving his biggest weakness (staff handling) over the last 15 weeks has "proved" you correct? Hardly! 

     If anyone is ranting it's you guys who are holding on to your Salty pipe dream like it's the core of your existence.

    What dream is that? I've been highly critical of Salty, and mentioned trading him at the deadline and certainly this winter, unless we keep Papi. I was for continuing playing Salty vs RHPs to determine if his stamina was an issue or just a fluke last year. That hardly sounds like a "pipedream", so stop inventing positions we have not held.

    Salty may not get non tendered but he is potentially a candidate given his overall performance and salary projections going forward. 

    If he was as bad as you say he is, he should not get an arb raise anyways, right?

    No, he will get a raise. My guess is he will settle before arb for about $4.8M to $5.5M.
    My guess is that there are about 5-10 MLB teams that would trade for him at that salary and give up a decent prospect to do so. My guess is we keep Lava since he costs less and has many years of control, and then we will sign another Shoppach type vet to mentor Lava and bat vs some RHPs (not actually Shopp, since he normally hits LHPs much better).

    A lot of teams bail on such guys even before they get to the last year's arb.

    Name the last guy the Sox did not sign before they even reached arb. When you find one, compare his numbers, age, and outlook to Salty's.

     For example, Hermida, Aviles, Sweeney....etc.

    Those teams are strapped for money, and they got prospects for them- they were not nontendered as you suggest Salty might be.

     I hope he tears it up for the remainder of the year but I'm not holding my breath. Cherington looks to be trying to get some value from him before the non tender option comes up where he will maybe get little to no value for him at all.

    My guess is Ben is observing his stamina and his continued great work with our staff to see if it is for real or not.

    I quote myself: "IF ANYTHING, my position is proving correct".

    If anything, Salty playing when Lava is on the roster is proving you wrong.

    And I'm the one ranting when you guys keep holding onto Salty right down until he's the worst catcher in baseball apparently? 

    How is he the worst catcher in MLB or evn coming close to him? Salty can go oh for 100 and still be better than the worst 5 catchers in MLB.

    We both have had our positions. We both have been entrenched to a large degree.

    Wrong again. My position has changed as the facts have changed. Everyone here last winter knows I was all over trading Salty, because I did not think he could ever improve with our pitching staff and "Lava could not do any worse". That changed on April 25th, and apparently you missed it.

     I had mine when Salty was almost an all star. All of you guys were fawning over him. Now when my projection is looking a whole lot more accurate I'm the one ranting?

    I never fawned over him, but merely defended him over outrageous claims.

    Yet again, you guys got it wrong. Just admit it and move on. 

    Got what wrong? I never projected anything more than what Salty has given us so far, except I under-estimated his work with our staff. he has improved where I projected little or no growth in that area.

    Salty has been in the league 4 years now and is proving to be a bad defensive catcher with very poor on base skills who can maybe have some good HR pop from time to time. 

    Prior to 2011, he never caught more than 84 games in a season.  He is just 27, which is about 3 years younger than VTek was before he turned around his skillset behind and beside the plate. Most player improve after 27, especially catchers.

    And he is starting to cost a lot more next winter. 

    If he's getting worse and worse, he should be "starting to cost" less next winter.

    Time to sell as high as we can and it sure looks like Cherington got that memo.

    I'd be fine with trading him now on a waiver deal, if we get something worthwhile, just as I was fine trading him at the deadline. I'm pretty certain he will be dealth this winter, but that may have to do with Papi's signing or not.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]Call my opinions rants just because they are different than yours, especially in instances where the data is very clear I'M RIGHT and yu will get a discussion. This isn't a Crawford is overpaid discussion. There are clearly 2 sides to this issue. You guys just don't want to hear it when you got it wrong.
    Posted by RedsoxProspects[/QUOTE]
    Two sides? 
    We could not have got it wrong because no one can know what was in the minds of GM's at the trade deadline. We explored possibilities different from yours. Thus two sides. 
     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Remember that really cool dude boomerangsdotcom ? I think he and RedSoxProspects would have a lot to agree on.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]Try to follow this: 1) I've been saying trade Salty for over a year and most ardently for the past 2 months. What has he done since that time: I wanted Salty traded last winter also, based mostly on his "high stock value" and his horrible record with our staff- to me the most important job of a catcher. My position did not change in April. However, unlike you and others, I did not let my own opinion and belief cloud my judgement and I actually watched the games after April 25th.  You may want to deny it or stick your head in the sand, but there has been a rather large sample size after April 25th that shows that Salty has vastly improved his numbers with our pitching staff to the point that he has done just as well as Shoppach for over 15 weeks. Yes, Shoppach, the guy you have been gushing over all day. It's your right to deny this, or think his career stats or last 2 years stats tell the true story and 15 weeks are a fluke. But, don't pretend you have the corner on the situation, because you clearly do not, as evidence by your assumptions based on a beat writer's ravings. a) Horrible defense, CERA, BA, Strikeouts, ....etc. He is in the past 9 weeks averaging less than a .200 BA with very low OBP and overall performance. At no point in the past 9 weeks can we even remotely look at Salty as having performed up to par.  Funny how you are willing to use the past 9 weeks to bash Salty's offense, but refuse to even acknowledge once in all of your ranting, Salty's inmproved work with the staff over the last 9 weeks or 15 weeks. His CERA pre-April 25th was 7.23. After April 25th it is now under 4.00. At least be consistent with your time frames of harsh judgements. And for some reason, Cherington apparently listened to GM's asking for Shoppach and immediately tried to ge them to take Salty.  Now, you are twisting the story even more. And, even if your story is true, it doesn't necessarily mean what you think it means. Maybe they wanted Shoppach and a top prospect for someone, but Ben countered with salty and a low prospect. We don't know, so making assumptions based on smoke is baseless. Maybe they were trying to sell high. They didn't trade either of them, but clearly tried to do so. "Clearly" to you and Cardafo. We don't know if Ben ever picked up the phone to tyry and trade Salty, but apparently according to Nick, someone called Ben and asked about Shopp and who knows who else, and Ben tried to offer Salty and who knows who else for who knows who. That's real "clear" to me.  Of course they didn't get the return they wanted! Of course they valued both catchers at least some. Nonetheless, according to reports they wanted to trade Salty more... We don't know how hard Ben tried to trade either of these two, and certainly not to what degree. You are making an assumption.  ...even though he was: 1) Better optimized for the team as a LH catcher. He's a switch hitter, but yes, he clearly hits RHPs better. 2) Was the starter And still is even with lava on the roster. 3) Was under more years of control. Yes, at a higher cost. Can you guys follow what I'M SAYING?  Yes, you have repeated it several times, and the condescension is not helping. Just because we disagree, doesn't mean we lack comprehension skills. You act like if we just "understood" your point, we'd have to agree, since it is so demonstrably right any fool could see the truth. You have your position and I have mine. If anything, my position is proving correct. Your position was to trade him "over a year ago". Are you saying his stock is lower now than last August? Are you saying hitting 20 Hrs in less than 400 PAs and greatly improving his biggest weakness (staff handling) over the last 15 weeks has "proved" you correct? Hardly!   If anyone is ranting it's you guys who are holding on to your Salty pipe dream like it's the core of your existence. What dream is that? I've been highly critical of Salty, and mentioned trading him at the deadline and certainly this winter, unless we keep Papi. I was for continuing playing Salty vs RHPs to determine if his stamina was an issue or just a fluke last year. That hardly sounds like a "pipedream", so stop inventing positions we have not held. Salty may not get non tendered but he is potentially a candidate given his overall performance and salary projections going forward.  If he was as bad as you say he is, he should not get an arb raise anyways, right? No, he will get a raise. My guess is he will settle before arb for about $4.8M to $5.5M. My guess is that there are about 5-10 MLB teams that would trade for him at that salary and give up a decent prospect to do so. My guess is we keep Lava since he costs less and has many years of control, and then we will sign another Shoppach type vet to mentor Lava and bat vs some RHPs (not actually Shopp, since he normally hits LHPs much better). A lot of teams bail on such guys even before they get to the last year's arb. Name the last guy the Sox did not sign before they even reached arb. When you find one, compare his numbers, age, and outlook to Salty's.  For example, Hermida, Aviles, Sweeney....etc. Those teams are strapped for money, and they got prospects for them- they were not nontendered as you suggest Salty might be.  I hope he tears it up for the remainder of the year but I'm not holding my breath. Cherington looks to be trying to get some value from him before the non tender option comes up where he will maybe get little to no value for him at all. My guess is Ben is observing his stamina and his continued great work with our staff to see if it is for real or not. I quote myself:  "IF ANYTHING , my position is proving correct". If anything, Salty playing when Lava is on the roster is proving you wrong. And I'm the one ranting when you guys keep holding onto Salty right down until he's the worst catcher in baseball apparently?  How is he the worst catcher in MLB or evn coming close to him? Salty can go oh for 100 and still be better than the worst 5 catchers in MLB. We both have had our positions. We both have been entrenched to a large degree. Wrong again. My position has changed as the facts have changed. Everyone here last winter knows I was all over trading Salty, because I did not think he could ever improve with our pitching staff and "Lava could not do any worse". That changed on April 25th, and apparently you missed it.  I had mine when Salty was almost an all star. All of you guys were fawning over him. Now when my projection is looking a whole lot more accurate I'm the one ranting? I never fawned over him, but merely defended him over outrageous claims. Yet again, you guys got it wrong. Just admit it and move on.  Got what wrong? I never projected anything more than what Salty has given us so far, except I under-estimated his work with our staff. he has improved where I projected little or no growth in that area. Salty has been in the league 4 years now and is proving to be a bad defensive catcher with very poor on base skills who can maybe have some good HR pop from time to time.  Prior to 2011, he never caught more than 84 games in a season.  He is just 27, which is about 3 years younger than VTek was before he turned around his skillset behind and beside the plate. Most player improve after 27, especially catchers. And he is starting to cost a lot more next winter.  If he's getting worse and worse, he should be "starting to cost" less next winter. Time to sell as high as we can and it sure looks like Cherington got that memo. I'd be fine with trading him now on a waiver deal, if we get something worthwhile, just as I was fine trading him at the deadline. I'm pretty certain he will be dealth this winter, but that may have to do with Papi's signing or not.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    Thorough and truthful, and an accurate summary of the position that several of us have.  All of this began, IIRC, when I took a close look and found good reasons to defend him against mindless accusations. Then you took a close look. Then Danny took a close look. Then Southpaw took a close. And....
    Boom went nuts, as is his wont. Amp advised him to move on. 
    We have all said, "Put the best man at each position on the field." That would include catcher. The Sox will make the call. 
    Boom is like the American tourist abroad who keeps shouting at the waiter louder and louder in the belief that the message will get across. In this instance, Boom is

     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]Remember that really cool dude boomerangsdotcom ? I think he and RedSoxProspects would have a lot to agree on.
    Posted by EnchiladaT[/QUOTE]
    I can't believe that another person in the world could be as immature, mean-spirited, vulgar-minded ( the Special Olympians ) hysterical, willfully stubborn, lame with insults as ole Boom. Or as willing to come back to get kicked around more.  His impersonator has got Moon slapping him silly.
    Naw, there can't be another one.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Update on Salty's CERA.
               CERA  IP     ER
    2010:  4.33   44     21
    2011:  4.62  856  439 
    2012
    >4/25 7.24   97     48
    4/25> 4.10  573  261
                                      CERA  IP   ER
    2010 to 4/25/2012:  4.86  997  538
    From 4/26-8/12/12: 4.10  573  262

    Shoppach
    > 4/25  4.14
    4/26>   3.92

    Lava:     5.00 (9 Ip 5 ER)

    After 4/25/12 Shoppach improved with the staff by 0.22 in CERA.

    After 4/25/12 Salty improved with the Sox staff by 3.14 in CERA.

    Salty in other areas of defense:
                   2011   2012
    PB/inn    .030    .008
    WP/inn   .048    .032
    PB+WP   .078    .040

    He's almost cut his PB/WP per inning in half. He's also better than the league average of .044.

    Salty's Fldg%  .992
    MLB catchers  .992

    DPs per inning:
    Salty  .003
    MLB   .001

    CS%
    Salty  18%
    MLB   26%
    (If Salty had a 26% rate, he'd have just 6 more CS'ings so far.)

    WAR Value on Fielding
    Salty  -1.5  (21st out of 30 MLB catchers)

    Yes, baseball reference has him -15 in Rdrs/yr (or 1200 innings).
    Salty might get 800-900 innings this year, so his net might be minus 10-11.

    I'm skeptical about this catcher metric, but it is what it is.

    I've seen improvement in Salty over 2010-2011 and up to April 25th of this year. At age 27, I think writing this off in the interest of his overall career or Sox numbers is not taking into consideration the learning curve of a catcher.

    How come Josh Reddick's offensive improvement is noteworthy, but Salty's behind the plate is not?




     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    OK guys, I'm not here to stick my face up Moon's behind like you expitch. That is number 1. You guys are the ones saying you need to teach me baseball 101. Telling me to please "follow this". Saying I'm ignoring things, ranting...etc.

    And IF ANYTHING, I'm the guy who projected Salty correctly. Do you hear me. IF ANYTHING, You guys got it wrong and I got it right. Salty has nose dived. Everyone in baseball knows it except you 3 or 4 who apparently just can't accept it.

    Moon, as you know, there is a huge difference in the data sample needed to judge CERA statistical significance as compared to standard BA and OPS data. You know it is at least 3 years. Expitch might think it is 3 minutes but you know it's 3 years of data. Why are you then harping at me over how Salty has done in CERA when it is about 1/2 year, not 3 years. As if it is a big deal. WOW, in that 1/2 year sample Salty you keep citing, which is not even statistically significant according to fangraphs, Salty is still not even EQUAL to Shoppach. BFD. Even in his best period of CERA success he still isn't all that close to Shoppach's CERA.

    You have lots of time to find supplementary data to help support your position Moon ( at least you cite some Moon, unlike most people here in this discussion ). But it doesn't outweigh the primary data IMO. We can differ on this but to me -defensive WAR is not good. League worst -8 DRS is really bad ( the net runs he has cost his team so far this year ). 4.64 CERA is really bad, on top of a career of bad CERA numbers. An 18% CS rate really stinks and I don't want to hear that it is always the pitchers causing it as we watch the release being slow and the throws being rarely on the mark and Shoppach nailing runners at a good rate. Those are primary defensive statistics, not supplementary data. 

    And 4 years of Salty's data is significant. He's not a freaking rookie any more. He's had a chance and he is not cutting it. Maybe he's acceptable for a lot of teams but not the Boston Redsox. We need better. Let's trade him. It's time to move on. We tried. We failed. Move on.

    Lavarnway has had 20 AB now in 2012. Time to throw him under the bus right expitch. Salty has had 9 weeks of AB and didn't hit much better in that time frame. I like Lavarnway's chances of moving his numbers up a heck of a lot more than Salty's. 

    The Redsox have to play Salty if they are going to get any value from him in a trade. They recently had Shoppach clear waivers. Shoppach is probably gone soon. Within days probably. And remember, as Cafardo insisted, they didn't even want to trade Shoppach at the break but now they are forced to if they want to give Lavarnway PT. If some contending team loses a RH catcher to injury, the first team they are going to call is Boston.
      
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    See the below link on the Lavarnway / Salty issue. Only one out of 27 soxprospects posts had any reason to play Salty and even then it was only to try to get his trade value up and platoon him with Lavarnway. I'm not the only one who thinks they should have traded Salty when they had a chance. You guys are the minority among knowledgeable posters ( yes Moon, I recognize that in the right deal you would have traded Salty also ). Expitch was talking about extending him around the break.

    If you read through the posts, there is not a lot of respect for Salty as a Redsox catcher:

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]OK guys, I'm not here to stick my face up Moon's behind like you expitch. That is number 1. You guys are the ones saying you need to teach me baseball 101. Telling me to please "follow this". Saying I'm ignoring things, ranting...etc. And IF ANYTHING, I'm the guy who projected Salty correctly. Do you hear me. IF ANYTHING, You guys got it wrong and I got it right. Salty has nose dived. Everyone in baseball knows it except you 3 or 4 who apparently just can't accept it. Moon, as you know, there is a huge difference in the data sample needed to judge CERA statistical significance as compared to standard BA and OPS data. You know it is at least 3 years. Expitch might think it is 3 minutes but you know it's 3 years of data. Why are you then harping at me over how Salty has done in CERA when it is about 1/2 year, not 3 years. As if it is a big deal. WOW, in that 1/2 year sample Salty you keep citing, which is not even statistically significant according to fangraphs, Salty is still not even EQUAL to Shoppach. BFD. Even in his best period of CERA success he still isn't all that close to Shoppach's CERA. You have lots of time to find supplementary data to help support your position Moon ( at least you cite some Moon, unlike most people here in this discussion ). But it doesn't outweigh the primary data IMO. We can differ on this but to me -defensive WAR is not good. League worst -8 DRS is really bad ( the net runs he has cost his team so far this year ). 4.64 CERA is really bad, on top of a career of bad CERA numbers. An 18% CS rate really stinks and I don't want to hear that it is always the pitchers causing it as we watch the release being slow and the throws being rarely on the mark and Shoppach nailing runners at a good rate. Those are primary defensive statistics, not supplementary data.  And 4 years of Salty's data is significant. He's not a freaking rookie any more. He's had a chance and he is not cutting it. Maybe he's acceptable for a lot of teams but not the Boston Redsox. We need better. Let's trade him. It's time to move on. We tried. We failed. Move on. Lavarnway has had 20 AB now in 2012. Time to throw him under the bus right expitch. Salty has had 9 weeks of AB and didn't hit much better in that time frame. I like Lavarnway's chances of moving his numbers up a heck of a lot more than Salty's.  The Redsox have to play Salty if they are going to get any value from him in a trade. They recently had Shoppach clear waivers. Shoppach is probably gone soon. Within days probably. And remember, as Cafardo insisted, they didn't even want to trade Shoppach at the break but now they are forced to if they want to give Lavarnway PT. If some contending team loses a RH catcher to injury, the first team they are going to call is Boston.   
    Posted by RedsoxProspects[/QUOTE]
    The only person being thrown under the bus here is you, Moon. And you are doing it yourself with typical rants -- and, in the process, a distortion of the position taken by several of us. Southpaw didn't slap you hard enough, I guess, for putting words in his mouth.
    Way back, when you were Moon and then got worried about your kid's reputation ( zowie ), I said that you may be right about Salty/Lavarnway and who is the better bet in the long run. ( Were you worried about your kid's business when you lambasted Moon for not listing you amongst "top candidates," or when you lambasted KIm for being on that list, involuntarily? You're a fraud. The "reputation" thing has always been about YOU. )  I bet on neither. Neither did Moon. He mentioned an extension for Salty as a POSSIBILITY. It still is. Among other possibilities that Moon and I have discussed. ( To describe the interaction between Moon and me, your cesspool mind came up with a typical image. Not quite the dumb Special Olympians, but from the same twisted sensibility. See, throwing yourself under the bus. That's what I mean. ) Go on another of your fruitcake hunts. The optical and cognitive degradation caused by that pulsating viscera of yours would lead you astray.
    You cannot get it through your thick skull that no one except you has made any specifics projections for Salty -- neither his performance nor his future, in Boston or elsewhere. Here it is again: YOU MAY BE RIGHT. But, as both Moon and I have said, that possibility does not foreclose discussion of other possibilities by other posters. 
    Amp gave you good advice. MOVE ON. But it hard to dislodge an obsessive from his idee fixe

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In all of this, I think Enchilada came up with the right term for Boom: twerp. Simple and to the point. 
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty : Im going to chime in one final time on this topic...I started to comment here because what I was seeing was what danny, ex, and Moon were, which was a catcher improving...IMPROVING...I never said, nor do I believe ex, moon or danny have said, that Salty was the catcher of the future...He was improving, simple as that and we made very valid arguments. Personally, I think he hit a wall. First full season back there. people can say hes been in the league for 4 years, but thats not looking at the full picture and Im not going to explain it to anyone again because im tired of doing so. maybe cause it doesnt involve numbers, I dont know. I know what certain stats say and I know what my eyes see...There is truth to both, but for a good 2-3 month period salty was really looking good no matter what older stats said...As of late the K rate has gone through the roof and he looked like he was tired. Thats why I think Lav was brought up. Ive held the position that if you can improve the team by trading a player than everyone is tradable, including Salty. Lav has shown absolutely NO OFFENSE since coming up. Thats not to say he wont because I believe he will. Its just funny how everyone wanted this kid playing a while ago because of his offense which is nowhere to be found...Yet. Bottom line for me is I would be fine with a Salty/Lavarnway combo. Over the long term Shoppach will kill this lineup offensively IMO, and i dont think his defense or game calling is so much of a difference that it will hurt them if he goes. I would also be fine with them trading Salty if they get a solid return that will improve this team. I guess we will just have to wait and see what happens this offseason, or maybe even sooner than that...
    Posted by southpaw777[/QUOTE]
    There it is, AGAIN, for the edification of the board hysteriac  and distorter
    ( of your language, as you've already pointed out ). Get ready to duck. Or, better, laugh. 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]See the below link on the Lavarnway / Salty issue. Only one out of 27 soxprospects posts had any reason to play Salty and even then it was only to try to get his trade value up and platoon him with Lavarnway. I'm not the only one who thinks they should have traded Salty when they had a chance. You guys are the minority among knowledgeable posters ( yes Moon, I recognize that in the right deal you would have traded Salty also ). Expitch was talking about extending him around the break. If you read through the posts, there is not a lot of respect for Salty as a Redsox catcher: http://forum-soxprospects.com/topic/7887/Is-it-time-to-play-Lavarnway-and-Iglesias-everyday?page=1#.UCiqHY68wS8
    Posted by RedsoxProspects[/QUOTE]
    I was talking about the POSSIBILITY that Salty would be extended. So was Moon. I did not say flatly that I recommend it. But that is the false impression you give when you say that I was "talking about extending him." If I had recommended an extension, you would have put here my words in bold block capitals.
    You tried to pull one of your cheap transparent rhetorical tricks, and got nicked, again. 

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty : The only person being thrown under the bus here is you, Moon. And you are doing it yourself with typical rants -- and, in the process, a distortion of the position taken by several of us. Southpaw didn't slap you hard enough, I guess, for putting words in his mouth. Way back, when you were Moon and then got worried about your kid's reputation ( zowie ), I said that you may be right about Salty/Lavarnway and who is the better bet in the long run. ( Were you worried about your kid's business when you lambasted Moon for not listing you amongst "top candidates," or when you lambasted KIm for being on that list, involuntarily? You're a fraud. The "reputation" thing has always been about YOU. )  I bet on neither. Neither did Moon. He mentioned an extension for Salty as a POSSIBILITY. It still is. Among other possibilities that Moon and I have discussed. ( To describe the interaction between Moon and me, your cesspool mind came up with a typical image. Not quite the dumb Special Olympians, but from the same twisted sensibility. See, throwing yourself under the bus. That's what I mean. ) Go on another of your fruitcake hunts. The optical and cognitive degradation caused by that pulsating viscera of yours would lead you astray. You cannot get it through your thick skull that no one except you has made any specifics projections for Salty -- neither his performance nor his future, in Boston or elsewhere. Here it is again: YOU MAY BE RIGHT. But, as both Moon and I have said, that possibility does not foreclose discussion of other possibilities by other posters.  Amp gave you good advice. MOVE ON. But it hard to dislodge an obsessive from his idee fixe
    Posted by expitch[/QUOTE]
    Of course, I meant Boom at the top when I wrote Moon. An idee fixe aflame with hatred. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I mentioned extending Salty as an alternative in case we traded Lava. The talk was that probably one of Lava or Salty would be dealt this winter. If it was to be Lava, I didn't want us without a catcher going forward. 

    I also clearly linked the idea of extending Salty to the end of the season. All along, one of my biggest reasons for wanting Salty to continue to play was to test his "stamina issue". If we had benched him at the deadline, we'd have never known he was going to hit "the wall" again (or rebound and have a nice finish). We would have, in a sense, learned little about him before making the big choice.

    The other big factor with Salty to me, was how he handled the staff and did he improve. I answered that, at least for a 15 week sample size anyways.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I said before I didn't want to argue. You guys just are grasping at straws trying to justify your position. I think I've made my case. 
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    You have made your case several times, as have we. We both supported our positions with evidence and data (some of it selective on both behalfs), but I really don't feel like I am "grasping at straws" ,or that either side "has been proven right". The season is not over. Your position was to play Lava over Salty. He hasn't played yet, so how will we ever have know if you would have been right or wrong? Even if he plays near FT from here on out and does very well, how does that prove us wrong?

    Last year, harness, I and several others waited and waited for Salty to improve under VTek's guidance. I never saw it, in fact, he got worse as the season continued. In the offseason, many of us called for Salty to be traded. I mentioned his "stock was high", and that, as far as handling the staff went, I didn't think it was possible for anyone to be worse than Salty, so I was willing to hand the job over to Lava and a capable back-up vet. I mentioned if Lava was the catcher, bringing VTek back made little sense since both did better vs LHPs. Once we signed Shoppach, also much better vs LHPs over recent years before the signing, I pretty much knew Salty was the choice (vs RHPs).

    As the season started, Salty looked even worse than last year behind the plate and with the staff, a few of which were new guys. Our staff struggled and I partially blamed Salty for the poor performances. I didn't notice any improvement until expitch called my attention to how well Salty had been handling the staff and playing defense behind the plate for the last few games. I began to watch even closer than I already was, and did see a big difference over April of 2012 and 2011 as a whole. I thought maybe it was just a fluke, so I held back my judgement until more and more games showed me the same thing: Salty had improved. I wnet back and looked at the record, and realized he had actually showed better results with our staff beginning after April 25th. I went back and looked at every game log and recorded ER/IP for both Salty and Shoppach. What I found was startling. Pre-April 25th our staff had a 7.24 ERA with Salty and a 4.14 with Shoppach. That differential is so great that it made it virtually impossible for Salty to ever end up with a cumulative 2012 CERA better than Shoppach, but I would never write off a player based on a 3 week sample size, when the 15 weeks plus after that sample size has shown a massive improvement (7.24 to 4.10), while Shoppach has improved only slightly (4.14 to 3.92). These numbers proved me wrong. This is the biggest thing I've been wrong about Salty on, and it has to do with him doing better than I expected- not worse. That's why this boggles my mind that you are calling me wrong and "grasping for straws", when if I took your position, I'd have been proven right- not wrong!

    I refuse to use CERA in the wrong manner. I refuse to not acknowledge that Salty's last 15+ weeks has shown improvement by citing yearly numbers to prove I was "right" from the start. It's disingenuous. In the area of pitcher handling, which you may disagree with me on as being the most important part of a catcher's game, I have seen a great change in Salty. The staff seems very comfortable with him, and even Beckett, who needed his "VTek Binky" for years has looked OK with salty (better than with Shoppach). You may choose to go ahead and count the first 3 weeks against Salty and believe he is worse than last year, but to me that is more like straw-grabbing than anything I have done. You found it very easy to blame Salty for our poor pitching staff performance in 2011 and early this year, but now that he is doing well, you want to minimize the impact a catcher can have on the staff, and won't give Salty one bit of credit in this area.

    The issue of catcher defense has long been an area of unknowns, conjecture, faulty and limited stats, that for years, most fans judged catchers on CS% alone. It's a very difficult position to quantify with numbers due to the many variables involved with each catcher stat. New defensive metrics for catchers are highly skeptical to me, and the stats I used to show Salty has improved are seriously flawed as well. You may think he's the worst or one of the worst defensive catchers based on lists that only include 14-15 catchers, and then 88 in another sample size, but I am pretty certain he is not a bottom 5 catcher out of 30 starting MLB catchers defensively. He maybe very close to #25, but I doubt he is the worst. We can agree to disagree here, but to me, even if he was #28 our of 30, but has helped turn our staff around, and that moves him way up in my defensive book.

    The other major issue I mentioned last winter was Salty's "stamina or durabilty" issue. I wasn't sure if it was youth, having to catch Wake so much, or just poor condituioning, but Salty's collapse at the plate and behind it last year bothered me. Once it was obvious Salty was going to be our catcher this year not Lava, I thought it would be wise for us to test Salty's stamina by playing him regularly all year, assuming he wasn't bringing the team down or preventing us from competing for a playoff slot. He started off the year hitting pretty well, especially for power and in key situations. He got quite afew clutch RBIs early, and yes, many posters jumped on his bandwagon by calling him an allstar or the best AL catcher. I never said that. I make my early season projections every year, and I projected more HRs, and a slight improvement in OBP and BA. It appears I will be wrong on the BA/OBP by a significant amount, but about right on HRs and incresed SLG%. Up until a few weeks ago, I di not view his low OBP as a deciding factor in determining he was hurting the team. I thought it wise to continue testing his stamina and to wait and see if he had a hot streak (he is streaky). The hot streak never came, even after he was rested a couple games. The CERA has begun to slip a little bit as well, but not as badly as in April. It appears that he is running out of steam at the plate, but it is not clear that he has lost his ability to handle the staff...yet. I happen to think Ben and BV are monitoring these areas very closely, so as to be better informed when making the biggest off season decision next to Papi and Jacoby--who starts at catcher next year? Salty or Lava? And, should and will we trade the other?

    To me, we have so many weaknesses on this team that can not all be solved (if any) by free agency. We are going to have to trade somebody good to get somebody good. I think one of our catchers has to go in the best interest of improving another position(s). I was not shocked to hear some of our catchers were mentioned in deadline trade talks (as I'm sure some teams asked about Lava too). I, myself, even suggested a couple trades involving Salty that would improve another position of greater need and maybe not even harming the catcher position enough to hurt us too badly. 

    A lot of fans jumped off the "Salty bandwagon" after those two close plays at the plate and key team losses. I did not. As with Wakefield for years before this, I never thought of myself as big Wake fan, but I felt like I had to counter some posters who were misrepresenting the facts to show he was one of the main reasons we were losing. I feel the same about Salty. He has a lot of faults. I wanted the guy traded this winter. I have nothing invested in him at all, in fact, if I was softy, I'd be trumping by own horn right now saying "I told you so", but the fact is the biggest thing I had against Salty was his staff handling. While he's still no VTek, the kid is only 27 and showing improvement in that area--big improvement! The second issue was stamin, and he is showing last year was not a fluke, but it is not clear yet, if he is toast for the rest of the year. I'd still give him a few more starts, maybe if he still hits badly, give him 4-5 days off, and give him another shot, to make sure (well, as sure as one can reasonably be in this game) that he lacks stamina. This would clearly show to me that he is the one that should be traded, or sent on a stamina building program if he is to stay. Salty's bat has never been a big issue with me, since hitting is just a bonus fro the catching position, and if you can get one good hitting category out of your catcher, you're ahead of most clubes by 1. Now, hitting .180 over a full season is another thing, but he hasn't done that. You seem to want to only acknowledge his recent hitting slump as opposed to his yearly numbers which stack up pretty well with the other 29 starting catchers, but you also seem to refuse to give him appropriate credit for improving in defensive areas of his game the last 15 weeks or so.

    Now that the season is all but over, the plan may change. Is it more important to know definitively whether Salty has a stamina issue, or is it more important to see what Lava can do in a 6 week sample size (not really that definitive in size, really)? I', OK with either answer at this point. I'd actually look to trade Shoppach on a waiver deal to cut salary and get a prospect (as well as other free agents to be).

    It's too bad this issue has gotten so personal. I apologize for getting snappy at times, and I know I am not perfect. I hope we can move forward with less animosity. We all want the same thing: a better Sox team next year!
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I've never seen a guy hit 20 HRs and receive less credit or more hate than Salty. Daubach was hailed a conquering hero as a 20 HR guy and he was a miserable defensive first baseman who struck out a lot too. Salty is playing a far more demanding position. 
     

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