Time to Bench Salty

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Last year, Salty was No. 1 among catchers in home runs, this year he is No. 1 among catchers in doubles. Time to bench him.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Last year Salty had 6 PBs and 23 WPs in 852 innings behind the plate. This year he has 5 PBs and 30 WPs in 822 innings.

    Sox4ever

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Boo-Yah!

    Sox4ever

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Last year Salty had 6 PBs and 23 WPs in 852 innings behind the plate. This year he has 5 PBs and 30 WPs in 822 innings.

    Sox4ever



    i thought WPs were credited to pitchers not catchers? i though that was the distinguishing factor between a WP and a PB. WP is the pitchers fault and Pb is the catchers fault.

    also, why doesn't a PB count as an error on a catcher?? seems stupid to me.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Last year Salty had 6 PBs and 23 WPs in 852 innings behind the plate. This year he has 5 PBs and 30 WPs in 822 innings.

    Sox4ever

     



    i thought WPs were credited to pitchers not catchers? i though that was the distinguishing factor between a WP and a PB. WP is the pitchers fault and Pb is the catchers fault.

     

    also, why doesn't a PB count as an error on a catcher?? seems stupid to me.




    I don't count WPs against the catcher, but some are better at preventing them than others. It might not have anything to do with Salty's defense. A catcher might improve at blocking pitches and still end up with more WPs. I get that.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    what do you guys think the starting point for saltys contract is going to be??

    in 2012, the top catchers made ~8 Mil give or take with Mauer being the outlier @ 23M per. McCan was the next highest at 10.5 and the only other catcher making 8 figures. IMO Salty is a top 10 catcher this year and should be paid like one. So my starting point for negotiations is 7M per. I'd go with a 3 year deal too bringing my starting offer to 7/21 which would be a very good value for a top catcher. Realistically, with the rising salaries among all players good and bad (im looking at you BJ Upton) and a better FA catcher available who will likely set the market i think Salty will get 9-10M per on the open market. Which i would still do for 3 years.

    so my range for Saltys future contract is 3 years, 21-27M. Which like i said, i would do without thinking twice. what do you guys think?

    Some say a storm is coming, Some say the end is near.

    Some think it's all so hazy, I think it's all so clear.

    Some say they have the answers, some say they know the truth.

    Some people live in question, some people have no clue.

    If there was no tomorrow, if there was just today.

    would you make different choices? or would you stay the same?

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    what do you guys think the starting point for saltys contract is going to be??

    in 2012, the top catchers made ~8 Mil give or take with Mauer being the outlier @ 23M per. McCan was the next highest at 10.5 and the only other catcher making 8 figures. IMO Salty is a top 10 catcher this year and should be paid like one. So my starting point for negotiations is 7M per. I'd go with a 3 year deal too bringing my starting offer to 7/21 which would be a very good value for a top catcher. Realistically, with the rising salaries among all players good and bad (im looking at you BJ Upton) and a better FA catcher available who will likely set the market i think Salty will get 9-10M per on the open market. Which i would still do for 3 years.

    so my range for Saltys future contract is 3 years, 21-27M. Which like i said, i would do without thinking twice. what do you guys think?

    Not many posters agreed with my suggestion that we extend Salty last winter. His price tag has certainly gone up, assuming he doesn't drop off a cliff these last 5-6 weeks. One of his biggest negatives has been the preception that he has little durability or stamina.

    What will Salty get this winter? Hard to say.

    Last winter...

    Russell Martin got $17M/2

    Pierzynski got $7.5M/1

    D Ross got $6.2M/2

     

    I have to think Salty will get more than Martin got. My guess is he will get close to $30M/3 or $36M/4. He might get more.

    I think one idea coud be to offer him a low risk 1 year deal at about $14M- a qualiftying offer. If he takes it, he will be overpayed, but the longterm risk is nill, and we have several catching prospects on the rise. If he turns it down, the loss of a draft pick may scare a lot of bidders away. He almost has to take the $14M/1 offer.

    Personally, I'd offer close to $30M/3. If one of our catching prospects rises quickly, we can always make a trade.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    what do you guys think the starting point for saltys contract is going to be??

    in 2012, the top catchers made ~8 Mil give or take with Mauer being the outlier @ 23M per. McCan was the next highest at 10.5 and the only other catcher making 8 figures. IMO Salty is a top 10 catcher this year and should be paid like one. So my starting point for negotiations is 7M per. I'd go with a 3 year deal too bringing my starting offer to 7/21 which would be a very good value for a top catcher. Realistically, with the rising salaries among all players good and bad (im looking at you BJ Upton) and a better FA catcher available who will likely set the market i think Salty will get 9-10M per on the open market. Which i would still do for 3 years.

    so my range for Saltys future contract is 3 years, 21-27M. Which like i said, i would do without thinking twice. what do you guys think?

    Not many posters agreed with my suggestion that we extend Salty last winter. His price tag has certainly gone up, assuming he doesn't drop off a cliff these last 5-6 weeks. One of his biggest negatives has been the preception that he has little durability or stamina.


    Well moon, He is on pace this year to catch more innings than ever before in his career i believe. If he doesn't hit a wall then i think that should be a pretty good  indication of his stamina. He's been pretty darn healthy while on our team too. Gotta love that!

    What will Salty get this winter? Hard to say.

    Last winter...

    Russell Martin got $17M/2

    Pierzynski got $7.5M/1

    D Ross got $6.2M/2

     

    I have to think Salty will get more than Martin got. My guess is he will get close to $30M/3 or $36M/4. He might get more.

    I would do 30/3 but that's my absolute max. He is entering his prime so he could definitely be worth it and his defense is only going to get better the longer he works on his craft.....

    I think one idea coud be to offer him a low risk 1 year deal at about $14M- a qualiftying offer. If he takes it, he will be overpayed, but the longterm risk is nill, and we have several catching prospects on the rise. If he turns it down, the loss of a draft pick may scare a lot of bidders away. He almost has to take the $14M/1 offer.

    I mention something similar to this on another thread. Look at what a QO did to the value of guys like Bourne and Loshe(? I forget.) If we  give him a QO he would likely accept it on value alone, factor in the reduced value other teams have because of the attached draft pick and his hands are pretty much tied. but that should be a last resort IMO.

    Personally, I'd offer close to $30M/3. If one of our catching prospects rises quickly, we can always make a trade.

    I'm right with ya. and while we shouldn't count on this i feel it has to be mentioned. Salty seems to love it here and might sign a team friendly deal..

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I would bet that he can easily get a 4yr deal, so I would plan to go a bit higher for him to take one less year. Might have to be between 10-12M per. Id have no issue with a 4yr deal though. Im not worried about 2yrs from now with either Vasquez, or Swihart when I have a longer term answer now. Salty has turned into a solid leader and a catcher who can physically handle the job. He's also managed to stay off the DL too.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    I would bet that he can easily get a 4yr deal, so I would plan to go a bit higher for him to take one less year. Might have to be between 10-12M per. Id have no issue with a 4yr deal though. Im not worried about 2yrs from now with either Vasquez, or Swihart when I have a longer term answer now. Salty has turned into a solid leader and a catcher who can physically handle the job. He's also managed to stay off the DL too.



    I'd go $36M/4 and maybe a bit more.

    Perhaps, $9.5M x 3 with a team option for the 4th year at $8M with a $2M buyout. He's guaranteed $30.5M/3 and we can have him for the 4th year at $8M or not.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    A 4/40 offer for Salty from someone wouldn't shock me at all....and I'd very happily pay it and would consider it a bargain....4/50 would be fine by me....over that I think it'd be getting a bit toppy. Other than the comically overpaid Mauer (may his back and bat RIP), 4/40 would put Salty near the top.  But it's extremely difficult to fill THE most critical defensive position.

    Old man Salty, at 28 still young-ish for a catcher, continues to show steady improvement and it's not unreasonable to expect more.  And if not Salty in 2014, then whom?  The next Carlton Fisk / Wall Street intern?   A young guy probably years away?  When we are competing now and should improve on the back of young pitchers for years?

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

    A 4/40 offer from someone wouldn't shock me at all....and I'd very happily pay it and consider it a bargain....4/50 fine by me....over that getting a bit toppy.  Other than the comically overpaid Mauer (may his back and bat RIP) 4/40 would put Salty near the top.  But it's extremely difficult to fill THE most critical defensive position.

    Old man Salty, at 28 still young-ish for a catcher, continues to show steady improvement and it's not unreasonable to expect more.  And if not Salty in 2014, then whom?  The next Carlton Fisk / Wall Street intern?   A young guy probably years away?  When we are competing now and should improve on the back of young pitchers for years?



    I'm not sure anyone pays $40-50M/4 and lose a draft pick by doing so. That gives us an edge in signing him before he hits the open market, even if it's a one year deal like a qualifying offer.

    Yes, 28 is young for a catcher. As I have mentioned several times on this thread, VTek did not become known for great defense and pitcher handling until after age 30. 

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

     

     

     

    A 4/40 offer from someone wouldn't shock me at all....and I'd very happily pay it and consider it a bargain....4/50 fine by me....over that getting a bit toppy.  Other than the comically overpaid Mauer (may his back and bat RIP) 4/40 would put Salty near the top.  But it's extremely difficult to fill THE most critical defensive position.

    Old man Salty, at 28 still young-ish for a catcher, continues to show steady improvement and it's not unreasonable to expect more.  And if not Salty in 2014, then whom?  The next Carlton Fisk / Wall Street intern?   A young guy probably years away?  When we are competing now and should improve on the back of young pitchers for years?

     

     



    I'm not sure anyone pays $40-50M/4 and lose a draft pick by doing so. That gives us an edge in signing him before he hits the open market, even if it's a one year deal like a qualifying offer.

     

     

    Yes, 28 is young for a catcher. As I have mentioned several times on this thread, VTek did not become known for great defense and pitcher handling until after age 30. 

     



    I hope you're right, Moon.  We've long agreed about Salty's relatively good performances and great potential....and IMO he's constantly improved.  I hope it's not just Salty's higher BA this year that has stopped the nonsense about him.  But it probably is.  ;-)  Batting Average rules!

     

    But if the Sox are to compete in 2014, who do we have under contract to catch?  Ross from Friends?  The "Next Carlton Fisk" who can, and will soon have to, quintuple his salary overnight on Wall Street?   A few relative babies with potential....

    If Salty ends up elsewhere in 2014, the b1tchers and mo@ners will be out in force claiming they always loved the guy.....

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    You want to know something surprising?

    Out of 30 MLB catchers with 250+ PAs this year, Salty's .271 BA places him 9th. This used to be his weakness.

    His .342 OBP places him 8th just .002 behind 7th. 

    His HRs are down, but his SLG% is still 8th best among catchers at .457.

     

    One point I have made before bears repeating; if we could get a back-up catcher that hits LHPs very well, Salty would make the perfect compliment.

    Salty vs RHPs: 

    OBP .346 (9th in MLB)

    SLG .514 (3rd in MLB)

    OPS .860 (4th in MLB)

     

    His OPS from 2012-2013 vs RHPs: .813

    671 PAs .254  34  92

     

    Sox4ever

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    You want to know something surprising?

    Out of 30 MLB catchers with 250+ PAs this year, Salty's .271 BA places him 9th. This used to be his weakness.

    His .342 OBP places him 8th just .002 behind 7th. 

    His HRs are down, but his SLG% is still 8th best among catchers at .457.

     

    One point I have made before bears repeating; if we could get a back-up catcher that hits LHPs very well, Salty would make the perfect compliment.

    Salty vs RHPs: 

    OBP .346 (9th in MLB)

    SLG .514 (3rd in MLB)

    OPS .860 (4th in MLB)

     

    His OPS from 2012-2013 vs RHPs: .813

    671 PAs .254  34  92

     

    Sox4ever

     



    I'm not surprised at all because "I watch the games".  But for the more statistical minded among us, Salty's STFUYLMM* factor seems to be approaching zero these days.

     

    *ending "You Loud Mouthed Moron"

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Perhaps one of softy's biggest contradictions was his harping on Saltys CS% while at the same time claiming that Ellsbury's SBs and SBs by anyone were overvalued.

    I'm not here to defend Salty's arm- or lack thereof, however, SBs are mostly the pitcher's fault, and almost all Sox pitchers allow a higher SB rate than the league average.

    Sox4ever

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    As of the 7th inning of tonight's game, Salty has a higher OPS than Pedroia (.797 to .796).

    Only Papi and Nava are ahead of Salty on the team (with 225+ PAs).

    Sox4ever

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Showing no signs of slowing down: gotta love it!

    He's at an .801 OPS now.

    Better than Pedey.

    Better than Ells.

    Better than Victorino.

    Napoli.

    Closing in on Nava for 2nd best on the club (.008 behind).

    Sox4ever

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    You want to know something surprising?

    Out of 30 MLB catchers with 250+ PAs this year, Salty's .271 BA places him 9th. This used to be his weakness.

    His .342 OBP places him 8th just .002 behind 7th. 

    His HRs are down, but his SLG% is still 8th best among catchers at .457.

     

    One point I have made before bears repeating; if we could get a back-up catcher that hits LHPs very well, Salty would make the perfect compliment.

    Salty vs RHPs: 

    OBP .346 (9th in MLB)

    SLG .514 (3rd in MLB)

    OPS .860 (4th in MLB)

     

    His OPS from 2012-2013 vs RHPs: .813

    671 PAs .254  34  92

     

    Sox4ever




    Salty has an .805 OPS vs LH starters this year. What seems to be the issue is when he has to turn around during a game to bat from the right side after already batting LH most of the game, when his OPS drops to .646.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    softlaw was wrong about a player?  shocking <sarc>

    Salty has been a bargain this season.  and a beast.

    it appears his pitchers love him.  that is good enough for me.

    hopefully we get a 2 or 3 year deal done for him to remain.

    in the meantime he will continue be an anchor for our pitching staff for (hopefully) a deep run into the PO's.....

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    You want to know something surprising?

    Out of 30 MLB catchers with 250+ PAs this year, Salty's .271 BA places him 9th. This used to be his weakness.

    His .342 OBP places him 8th just .002 behind 7th. 

    His HRs are down, but his SLG% is still 8th best among catchers at .457.

     

    One point I have made before bears repeating; if we could get a back-up catcher that hits LHPs very well, Salty would make the perfect compliment.

    Salty vs RHPs: 

    OBP .346 (9th in MLB)

    SLG .514 (3rd in MLB)

    OPS .860 (4th in MLB)

     

    His OPS from 2012-2013 vs RHPs: .813

    671 PAs .254  34  92

     

    Sox4ever

     




    Salty has an .805 OPS vs LH starters this year. What seems to be the issue is when he has to turn around during a game to bat from the right side after already batting LH most of the game, when his OPS drops to .646.

     



    What does he bat vs the LH'd starter before a righty comes in?

    The .805 OPS is the whole game stat when a lefty starts, not just the numbers vs the lefty starter.

    You are right though, he must kill RH'd relief pitchers after a lefty has started.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to slasher9's comment:

    softlaw was wrong about a player?  shocking <sarc>

    Salty has been a bargain this season.  and a beast.

    it appears his pitchers love him.  that is good enough for me.

    hopefully we get a 2 or 3 year deal done for him to remain.

    in the meantime he will continue be an anchor for our pitching staff for (hopefully) a deep run into the PO's.....



    softy called Salty a "back-up catcher profile", but then again, he wanted Cameron as the FT CF'er and Ellsbury on the bench as a 4th OF'er.

    The only things he's been close to right on are...

     

    ...

     

    ...

     

    ...

     

    ...

     

     

     

     

     

     

    (Oh yeah, he did say we should get A Soriano.)

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    You want to know something surprising?

    Out of 30 MLB catchers with 250+ PAs this year, Salty's .271 BA places him 9th. This used to be his weakness.

    His .342 OBP places him 8th just .002 behind 7th. 

    His HRs are down, but his SLG% is still 8th best among catchers at .457.

     

    One point I have made before bears repeating; if we could get a back-up catcher that hits LHPs very well, Salty would make the perfect compliment.

    Salty vs RHPs: 

    OBP .346 (9th in MLB)

    SLG .514 (3rd in MLB)

    OPS .860 (4th in MLB)

     

    His OPS from 2012-2013 vs RHPs: .813

    671 PAs .254  34  92

     

    Sox4ever

     




    Salty has an .805 OPS vs LH starters this year. What seems to be the issue is when he has to turn around during a game to bat from the right side after already batting LH most of the game, when his OPS drops to .646.

     

     



    What does he bat vs the LH'd starter before a righty comes in?

     

    The .805 OPS is the whole game stat when a lefty starts, not just the numbers vs the lefty starter.

    You are right though, he must kill RH'd relief pitchers after a lefty has started.

    [/QUOTE]


    It said .805OPS vs LH starter. That leads me to believe that the vs.LHP as RHB stat would be a reliever. Which means hes good against LH starters as a RHB, but if the starter was a RH, then a LHP comes into the game, hes not as good switching sides later in the game.

    Am I not reading the stats correctly?

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I'm all for efficiency and budget management and, like it or not, baseball is a business and must be run as such for a team to succeed in the absence of an unlimited budget.

    But good catchers are very difficult to find.  How many good catchers in their prime have been traded in our lifetimes?  Gary Carter springs to mind....can't think of another right now.

    If we have to overpay Salty by 1% of our budget ($2m/year) to keep him?  Fine, just do it.  I like Ross a lot as a backup but I have no faith in our (soon-to-be) Wall Street intern despite the stupidest guy on the internet's belief.  We obviously will compete over the next few years, likely on the back of young pitchers, so we must have a top flight catcher.

    If not Salty, then whom?  Pay him! 

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    You want to know something surprising?

    Out of 30 MLB catchers with 250+ PAs this year, Salty's .271 BA places him 9th. This used to be his weakness.

    His .342 OBP places him 8th just .002 behind 7th. 

    His HRs are down, but his SLG% is still 8th best among catchers at .457.

     

    One point I have made before bears repeating; if we could get a back-up catcher that hits LHPs very well, Salty would make the perfect compliment.

    Salty vs RHPs: 

    OBP .346 (9th in MLB)

    SLG .514 (3rd in MLB)

    OPS .860 (4th in MLB)

     

    His OPS from 2012-2013 vs RHPs: .813

    671 PAs .254  34  92

     

    Sox4ever

     




    Salty has an .805 OPS vs LH starters this year. What seems to be the issue is when he has to turn around during a game to bat from the right side after already batting LH most of the game, when his OPS drops to .646.

     

     

     



    What does he bat vs the LH'd starter before a righty comes in?

     

     

    The .805 OPS is the whole game stat when a lefty starts, not just the numbers vs the lefty starter.

    You are right though, he must kill RH'd relief pitchers after a lefty has started.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    It said .805OPS vs LH starter. That leads me to believe that the vs.LHP as RHB stat would be a reliever. Which means hes good against LH starters as a RHB, but if the starter was a RH, then a LHP comes into the game, hes not as good switching sides later in the game.

     

    Am I not reading the stats correctly?

    [/QUOTE]

    I think you are misreading the stat.

    Underneath the stat, baseballreference.com states:

    vs Starter batting splits are for the entire game when the starter was LH or RH. These splits include any subsequent plate appearances against a reliever regardless of their throwing hand. These splits are a proxy for platoon splits for seasons we lack play-by-play data. from GL team pitching splits indicate how batters did against the team and use the batter's overall batting handedness for this split.

    Salty's .805 OPS is his total OPS in games when a LHP starts. It does not break it down to his OPS vs the starter and relievers. I'd like to see those numbers.

    It's hard to know for sure, but Salty may be about as bad vs LH'd starters and LH'd relievers, but for some reason, he might do better when a RH'd reliever comes in than vs a RH'd starter. That could explain why Salty is .805 when a lefty starts and .800 when a righty starts, but is .866 vs .646 overall vs RHP/LHPs. It might be a little of both. He hits LH'd starters better than his norm, and he hits RH'd relievers (after a lefty starts) better than the norm. Maybe he hits RH'd and LH'd releivers worse after a RH'd starter is removed and vice versa.

     

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