Tito's Latest Head Scratcher

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Tito's Latest Head Scratcher

    In Response to Re: Tito's Latest Head Scratcher:
    [QUOTE]For the record, this is the 6th time this year Papelbon has been brought in with a 4-run lead.  In the previous 5 times he gave up a total of 1 run.  Apr 10, 28 May 7, 22, 27
    Posted by Hfxsoxnut[/QUOTE]

    If he was brought in 500 times in a row, and was perfect, they'd be complaining if he blew #501.  Once your closer is warmed up, the difference between a 3-run and a 4-run lead is not significant enough to not bring him in.

    And if he had brought in Jenks and Jenks loses the first tow guys, what then?
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Tito's Latest Head Scratcher

    In Response to Re: Tito's Latest Head Scratcher:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Tito's Latest Head Scratcher : If he was brought in 500 times in a row, and was perfect, they'd be complaining if he blew #501.  Once your closer is warmed up, the difference between a 3-run and a 4-run lead is not significant enough to not bring him in. And if he had brought in Jenks and Jenks loses the first tow guys, what then?
    Posted by Joebreidey[/QUOTE]

    Exactly.  And what's really amusing is when people refer to the 4-run lead as a 'non-save' situation as if that's important. 
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from donrd4. Show donrd4's posts

    Re: Tito's Latest Head Scratcher

    Tito was soooooo right in his moves. You are in it to win it ,not to save players for the next few innings. Darn! And you talk about Titos not knowing.When you have a chance to win you pull out all stops and not worry about what might happen later. This my friends is why Tito is there and we are here. Btter start scratching your head.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Tito's Latest Head Scratcher

    im all for using closers in any situation - not just saves but throwing Paps in against the A's with a 4 run lead is dumb....especially when Bard was lights out

    as far as the pinch runners go I was shocked to see that happen...in the past Tito NEVER pinch ran for Papi because he reasoned he would need him later in case of extra innings! The fact that he removed Papi & Agon is mind-blowing. I dont know whether to be impressed or horrified - but hey we won!
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from piersall. Show piersall's posts

    Re: Tito's Latest Head Scratcher





    Is this 20/20 club a local or an international???

    Some of the strings Tito pulled didn't work, but they weren't wrong strings to pull.  Would any of you 20/20 guys ever pitch around a good batter?  Would you expect the next guy up to NEVER deliver? etc.  I can just hear you birds if Tito makes that (mistake) in future games.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from pinstripezac32. Show pinstripezac32's posts

    Re: Tito's Latest Head Scratcher

    In Response to Re: Tito's Latest Head Scratcher:
    [QUOTE], but even my own eyes have seen that Paps is not the same time of pitcher in non save situations.   Posted by freediro seems like mgrs won't admit it  but over the yrs i have seen  the same thing with mo I'm guessing PA means this yr PeteAbe Pete Abraham Papelbon has a 2.38 ERA in save situations, 4.50 otherwise.
    Posted by pinstripezac32[/QUOTE]


    Here's a look at the numbers this year for Mo: (08)

    16 non-save situations: 21 innings, 18 hits, seven runs, 3.00 ERA.

    26 save situations: 27.1 innings, 12 hits, one run, 0.33 ERA.

     

     

     

    Closers: The Trouble with Non-Save Situations


    One of the most interesting phenomena in regard to closing pitchers is the dreaded “non-save situation”. Who hasn’t cringed whenever the closer from their favorite team enters the game when it is not a save situation? Why do we cringe? Because more often than not, the closing pitcher gets battered around.
    Why this happens is anyone’s guess but it may be chalked up to the fact that the same mental make-up that makes a closer so well-suited for a save situation, is their very undoing in a non-save situation. Think of it like this… a closer is a closer because they get all psyched up to come in and close the game for the win. When you take them out of that situation, you take them out of their element and we all know what a fish out of water is like. It struggles to survive.
    So, why would Managers use closers in non-save situations? The reasons can vary but often can be chalked up to the fact that the pitcher may need some extra work or the Manager’s desire to keep the pitcher fresh during stretches between save opportunities.
    Let’s take a look around the Majors at some examples of closing pitchers and how they have fared in different situations so far in 2011:


    Ryan Madson (PHI)
    On May 24th, the Phillies closer came into a game having not surrendered a single earned run in a save situation all season. With Madson coming off 7 straight save situations (all successful), Phillies Manager Charlie Manuel brought him into a tie game in the 9th inning. The closer promptly gave up 3 runs on 3 hits in 1 inning pitched.
    J.J. Putz (ARI)
    Putz, acquired in the off-season to fill the closers role for the Diamondbacks, has fared very well in the role converting all 14 of his save chances so far in 2011. Although he sports a nifty 0.64 ERA in save situations, he has seen that stat jump to 3.86 when not in a position to get a save.
    Drew Storen (WAS)
    After getting the chance to close games over the final third of 2010, Storen has locked down the role this season pitching very well along the way, sporting a fantastic 0.75 ERA when closing out games. When brought into games in non-save situations however, his ERA increases almost a run and a half.
    Brian Wilson (SF)
    Wilson, considered by many to be the premier closer in the game entering this season has delivered exactly as advertised iby saving games with a 1.98 ERA and a stellar 11.2 K/9. However, when used in non-save situations his ERA skyrockets to 5.79 and his K/9 plummets all the way to a bewildering 5.8.
    John Axford (MIL)
    Not one to buck the trend, when appearing in ballgames where the game isn’t on the line, Axford’s ERA increases by a full run and his K/9 drops by 5.
    Jose Valverde (DET)
    Indeed the “Papa Grande” of the non-save situation, Valverde’s stats are mind-boggling. When saving games, he sports an impressive stat line: .98 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 13.1 K/9 and a K/BB ratio of 4.00. Those are some extraordinary numbers. When games are not close however, Jim Leyland should really consider leaving Jose in the bullpen. When Valverde pitches in non-save situations, his stat line gets ugly: 6.30 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 4.5 K/9 and with a K/BB rate of .83, he walks more than he strikes out.
    In deference to “Papa Grande’s” profound stats, I would like to suggest renaming the non-save situation and calling it a “Dirty Valverde”. How about it? Let’s start a trend.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Tito's Latest Head Scratcher

    Zak-I think a lot of the folks are reading this wrong.

    There are really two types on non-save opportunities.  The first is where the guy hasn't worked in 5 days and needs some game time.  Those almost always work out badly.

    The second is a semi-save, like last night.  Some of the people in here think there is a bright-line barrier where you never bring the guy in with a 4-run lead and always bring the guy in with a 3-run lead.  I don't buy it.  I think the worst thing you can do is to warm the guy up, score two runs in the bottom of the 8th, sit the guy down, bring in Jenks who puts two guys on, and then warm up Paps again.  It just makes no sense to me.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from piersall. Show piersall's posts

    Re: Tito's Latest Head Scratcher

    In Response to Re: Tito's Latest Head Scratcher:
    [QUOTE]Zak-I think a lot of the folks are reading this wrong. There are really two types on non-save opportunities.  The first is where the guy hasn't worked in 5 days and needs some game time.  Those almost always work out badly. The second is a semi-save, like last night.  Some of the people in here think there is a bright-line barrier where you never bring the guy in with a 4-run lead and always bring the guy in with a 3-run lead.  I don't buy it.  I think the worst thing you can do is to warm the guy up, score two runs in the bottom of the 8th, sit the guy down, bring in Jenks who puts two guys on, and then warm up Paps again.  It just makes no sense to me.
    Posted by Joebreidey[/QUOTE]






    Save vs non-save details aside;  would someone please help me with the flaws of the following logic?

    1.  It's the top of the ninth, I'm ahead.  I want a "W".
    2.  To best assure a "W" I think I'll go with my best.

    (ignoring all the other detailed knowledge that Tito has about his staff that none of us is privy to)
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from mrmojo1120. Show mrmojo1120's posts

    Re: Tito's Latest Head Scratcher

    This is from an article from WEEI.com that I posted earlier(Papelbon:I wasn't talking to the Ump"):

     

    Given that the situation was not eligible for a save, the easy move would have been to bring in Dan Wheeler, who was also warming up prior to the ninth. However, Francona explained later that the decision was part of team policy.

    “We’ve always done it this way,” said Francona. “When he’s up loose [and] when we go to four, he’s going to pitch. When we’re five, we were going to bring in Wheeler. And Pap always knows that. He understands it, and I think he agrees with it. He’s up loose. If you bring up someone else, he’s got to stay up loose and that seems like a waste.”

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Tito's Latest Head Scratcher

    The right move was made by Tito..People so often say Tito gives up or plays not to lose..This time he had his closer already warming up in a save situation..The sox scored to make it a 4-run lead(non-save) ..Why not bring him in to close it out..If Pedey didnt kick the pooch on that easy dp, this would not be a discussion.. Paps was coming in one way or the other yesterday because he already warmed up..The 20/20 club is alive and well...
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Tito's Latest Head Scratcher

    The pinch-running one is interesting.  I'd like to see it analyzed.  One way it could be done would be to calculate the % of times the game is over before the guy who was pinch-run for comes to bat again.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from tcal2-. Show tcal2-'s posts

    Re: Tito's Latest Head Scratcher

    Let's expand a bit.  Some like the move some don't. 

    Here are my questions:

    1)  At what point do you pull a relief picture? 

    a) When he loads the bases
    b) When he gives up a run
    c) When he gives up 2 runs
    d) When he gives up 3 runs
    e) When he gives up 4 runs
    f) When he blows the lead
     

    2)  Did Francona make a poor decision allowing Paps to stay in the game as long as he did?
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from LloydDobler. Show LloydDobler's posts

    Re: Tito's Latest Head Scratcher

    In Response to Re: Tito's Latest Head Scratcher:
    [QUOTE]The right move was made by Tito..People so often say Tito gives up or plays not to lose..This time he had his closer already warming up in a save situation..The sox scored to make it a 4-run lead(non-save) ..Why not bring him in to close it out..If Pedey didnt kick the pooch on that easy dp, this would not be a discussion.. Paps was coming in one way or the other yesterday because he already warmed up..The 20/20 club is alive and well...
    Posted by southpaw777[/QUOTE]
    Damned if you do ...
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Tito's Latest Head Scratcher

    In Response to Re: Tito's Latest Head Scratcher:
    [QUOTE]I don't have a problem bringing Papelbon in.  It's worked in the past, and barring Pedroia's error, it worked yesterday too. I haven't heard anybody defend the pinch-running though.  Papi I wasn't too concerned with, because you would have thought a 7th run would just be cushion at the time.  But in hind-sight, you probably wished you had him in the lineup in the 10th inning.  So with the benefit of of hindsight, do you pinch-run for Gonzalez with nobody out in the 10th?   Think about it - you're not asking Youk to sacrifice, so what are the possible benefits?  Best case scenario Sutton takes an extra base that Gonzalez would not have had.  But the most likely scenario is that nobody scores in that inning, but four or five men come to the plate.  Meaning the following inning, if anybody gets on base, there's a good chance Gonzalez stands to drive them home. I understand that this is a traditional baseball move, but you are talking worlds of difference in hitting ability between Drew Sutton and Adrian Gonzalez.  Furthermore, you are looking at completely emptying your bench.  This isn't 20/20 hindsight - the only time I would pinch-run for Gonzalez in this situation is if he is at third base with less than 2 outs, and somebody else has a significantly better chance of scoring by tagging up on a fly.
    Posted by slomag[/QUOTE]

    Working backwards, if you are not going to PR for the slowest guy on the team, on 1st, with -0- outs, in the bottom of an extra inning game, then there are really very very few times you'll PR.

    I think PRing for Gonzo has a much higher payback than for Papi.  The only way it makes a difference is if it's a semi-hard hit ball.  On a soft single, Papi scores and on a hard single, neither scores.

    OTOH, maybe Sutton can go 1st to 3rd.  Maybe he can break up a DP or get to second on a GB to the right side.  Maybe you can hit-and-run or start Sutton on a 3-2 count.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from lifelongsoxdawg. Show lifelongsoxdawg's posts

    Re: Tito's Latest Head Scratcher

    Bringing Pap's in, in this situation was another of many of Francona's managerial blunders this year, for numerous reasons. Yes, it was not a save situation, but more importantly, Pap's had already pitched in the previous 2 games and in bringing him in the game on Saturday, he would not be available for a potential save situation in today's(Sunday's) game.

    I say, let Francona go and make Joe Madden an offer he can't refuse. In my book, Madden is the best manager in baseball. He looses top players every year but somehow finds a way to get the best out of his new and remaining players. He always seems to be knocking on the door for first place in the toughest division in baseball. Imagine what he could do with a team like the Red Sox!
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from mrmojo1120. Show mrmojo1120's posts

    Re: Tito's Latest Head Scratcher

    In Response to Re: Tito's Latest Head Scratcher:
    [QUOTE]Bringing Pap's in, in this situation was another of many of Francona's managerial blunders this year, for numerous reasons. Yes, it was not a save situation, but more importantly, Pap's had already pitched in the previous 2 games and in bringing him in the game on Saturday, he would not be available for a potential save situation in today's(Sunday's) game. I say, let Francona go and make Joe Madden an offer he can't refuse. In my book, Madden is the best manager in baseball. He looses top players every year but somehow finds a way to get the best out of his new and remaining players. He always seems to be knocking on the door for first place in the toughest division in baseball. Imagine what he could do with a team like the Red Sox!
    Posted by lifelongsoxdawg[/QUOTE]

    Papelbon did pitch the previous 2 games,but they had a day off in between.I believe that would make him available to close today if needed.
       You may think Maddon's a better manager than Francona,but he makes his mistakes too.I don't remember Tito ever losing his DH spot for filling out a line up card wrong like Maddon did.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Tito's Latest Head Scratcher

    If you watch any MLB game, there will be times you disagree with the managers choices.

    Even if you had a manager that did everything "by the book", people would criticize him for having no imagination or being to "predictable" and easy to defend against.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from freediro. Show freediro's posts

    Re: Tito's Latest Head Scratcher

    The numbers are there, guys like Paps and even the almighty Mo Rivera do not do nearly as well in non-save situations as they do in save situations. Tito always talk about numbers and that's is why is has this L-R-L-R batting order and he mixes it up depending on the pitcher that day. So why not realize the numbers are not in Paps favor during a non-save situation and use someone else, if the save situation comes up then you use Paps. I don't get why its so hard to understand this.

    I know every manager does things different and this is what makes baseball interesting, but Francona isn't consistent with his managerial style. He also pinch runs for a guy who can't even steal 2nd base, then what the hell is the point of taking out the most productive RBI man in the bigs right now!?

    Once again he has made made perfectly rationale baseball decisions, but not the best ones and it was very clear in this game. I am just gad we won.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Tito's Latest Head Scratcher

     So why not realize the numbers are not in Paps favor during a non-save situation and use someone else, if the save situation comes up then you use Paps. I don't get why its so hard to understand this.

    No, the question was, what other better choice was there?

    Even if Paps does worse in non-save situation than save situations, he might still be a better choice than someone else.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: Tito's Latest Head Scratcher

    Well David Ortiz is a lot of things but he is a horrible base runner. It isn't just his foot speed Papi also does not cut the bag tight when he hits third base. He slides poorly as well. Now the RS have the advantage to test Willingham or Crisp who aren't strong arms but doing it with Ortiz could result in dueling fire Bogar and fire Francoma threads.

    Bottom line at home late, you play to win, not play to insure your line-up is better stacjed for extra innings.
     
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