Re: trade Ellsbury before the season starts
posted at 3/2/2013 5:42 AM EST
In response to hill55's comment:
In response to softlaw2's comment:
Hill doesn't have a clue on this issue. The prospects of a season from Ellsbury, plus draft compensation at the end,
will net several offers that include a top tier prospect
. Do the math.
We're on about Day 150 of this forum's campaign to trade Jacoby Ellsbury this offseason while potential draft compensation remains attached. Perhaps the Sox have turned down multiple offers of top-tier prospects for Jacoby Ellsbury ... perhaps not.
The Red Sox have until Opening Day to trade Ellsbury with the potential compensation pick attached.
What are the chances the Red Sox trade Ellsbury before Opening Day? 75 percent? 50 percent? 25 percent? I place the chances at about 5 percent.
The real question that begs to be answered is not whether Sox will, could or should have traded Ellsbury for a bucket of balls. It's are we a better team with
him in the lineup...Heathly you can pretty much expect gold glove level defense in center and if he returns to his norm should hit 290ish with 40 steals. Given all of the other questions in our everyday lineup entering this offseason. I'd say that given that he's still in camp, the answer is with....For now?
That said, the Sox could still trade him during the spring or once the season begins...What none of us know is if Cherington has during his discussions with the other 29 GM's discussed the what if's and or the contingencies of the parameters of a trade. Thierin lyes the real story...
Clearly Ellsbury was avaliable this offseason it's also clear that no team made Cherington an offer he couldn't refuse. Fact is that Ellsbury's injury history and his lackluster perfromance after returning from injury last season. Have had an ill effect on his market value both in terms of trade value and unless he shows himself healthy and returns to form this year it will also impact his market value as a free agent. He's know it, Boras Know's it, the Sox ownerships know's it, every GM in the game know's it, we the fan if we are honest with ourselves know it too. Trading Ells now would be selling low...if he starts the year out hot his value will then begin to rise, if he maintains it until July, the needle moves to white hot. Add an injury to a contender and or a team like Seattle struggling to score and you've got the making of a deal. Just saying...