1. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: trade Ellsbury before the season starts

    posted at 3/2/2013 9:54 AM EST

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to notin's comment:

    All it takes is the right injury to re-open the market for Ellsbury.



    Or the wrong injury to Jacoby Ellsbury to close the market.

     




     

    Seriously?   Are you going with that?  As if it is unique to Ellsbury?  Name one player who gets injured and it opens the market.   Didn't the injury to Aaron Boone open the market for A-Rod just a little bit more?

     

    While the market for Ellsbury might be not much now, if a team with 2013 aspriatons loses their CF for the year, it absolutely opens the market for Ellsbury.  Say Austin Jackson, Denard Span, BJ Upton, or Matt Kemp get injured during ST?  Or Leonys Martin?  And probably a few others.  Adam Eaton?  Angel Pagan? Ben Revere?  None of these players are immune to season-ending injury.   If Ellsbury does have a season-ending injury in ST, it probably helps Boston, as it has potential effects on his short term demands.  Why turn down a Qualifying Offer after a missed season?

     

    As it stands now, there are actually 2 teams that could use Ellsbury - Tampa and the Yankees.  NY is likely to stopgap for the first 10 weeks, but Tampa would already by better off making a move for him short term, but that team rarely makes big short term moves.   Whether or not Boston woudld help either is another matter, although if they are running up the white flag on2013 it makes sense to steal from the future of either of these teams while trying to build their own.

     

    The White Sox are probably another team that could use Ellsbury right now.  The drawback with them is the poor minor league system all but devoid of anything anyone else wants.

     

    However, as the AL East is pretty wide open with no true dominant team, Boston is much more likely to hold on to Ellsbury and see how the season unfolds...

     

  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: trade Ellsbury before the season starts

    posted at 3/2/2013 9:59 AM EST

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

    Clearly Ellsbury was avaliable this offseason it's also clear that no team made Cherington an offer he couldn't refuse. Fact is that Ellsbury's injury history and his lackluster perfromance after returning from injury last season. Have had an ill effect on his market value both in terms of trade value and unless he shows himself healthy and returns to form this year it will also impact his market value as a free agent. He's know it, Boras Know's it, the Sox ownerships know's it, every GM in the game know's it, we the fan if we are honest with ourselves know it too. Trading Ells now would be selling low...if he starts the year out hot his value will then begin to rise, if he maintains it until July, the needle moves to white hot. Add an injury to a contender and or a team like Seattle struggling to score and you've got the making of a deal. Just saying...

    The flip side is that Ben Cherington may have made multiple offers of Jacoby Ellsbury that other teams refused.

    At the trade deadline I could see the Mariners trading away from their crowded outfield of Franklin Gutierrez, Michael Saunders, Mike Morse, Raul Ibanez, Jason Bay, Casper Wells and Carlos Peguero, who have already combined for 12 homeruns* in the rarified air of Spring Training in Arizona (six with an OPS of at least 1.000 in admittedly small samples). The M's have averaged 6.375 runs a game this spring, although that number will drop when the team returns to the heavy marine layer at Safeco Field (where Jacoby Ellsbury has posted a .233/.292/.333/.626 line in 66 career plate appearances).

    * the entire Red Sox team has three homeruns this spring

     

  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: trade Ellsbury before the season starts

    posted at 3/2/2013 11:24 AM EST

    In response to selenium-'s comment:

    In response to Wolfpack13's comment:

     

    Not a terrible idea, but it sounds like he was shopped all winter. The offers weren't great. All trade ideas look great on message boards "Get rid of Lackey," but the real world involves other teams.

     



    Are we discussing Ellsbury or Lackey here? Can you provide links in respect to who was shopped and what the offers were?

     




    Obviously they dont release all offers discussed behind closed doors...Most sports fans know this.

     

  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: trade Ellsbury before the season starts

    posted at 3/2/2013 11:31 AM EST

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to rkarp's comment:

     

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

     

    Elles value will be max this summer.... certainly it will be no less than it is now but chances are if healthy it will be very high summertime.

     



    The issue is if Ells is having a big season and the Sox are already out of contention, what is Ells worth considering the Boras factor? I can't see any team offering up a top tier prospect with cost control for half a season of Ells, unless there is some certainty of signing Ells. With Boras, the certainty mid season prior to free agency is zero. 

     

    Isnt Hill correct? Ells clearly has been available, and the Sox have publicly stated that they tried to resign Ells. So far nothing. The Sox have 2 options. Play out the year with him, and watch him go to free agency, or trade him for dimes on the dollar. 

    I assume the Sox trade Ells today for Wheeler or Bauer. That type of deal simply is not available today, nor will it be at the trade deadline. 

     




    i disagree, contending teams are willing to part with their future for a chance to win TODAY. Every year at the deadline you have 1 team giving up a significany prospect for a rental.

     




    Of course they will part with a top prospect if they think a certain player is the missing piece to a possible WSC...Its done EVERY YEAR...

     

  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: trade Ellsbury before the season starts

    posted at 3/2/2013 11:44 AM EST

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to rkarp's comment:

     

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

     

    Elles value will be max this summer.... certainly it will be no less than it is now but chances are if healthy it will be very high summertime.

     



    The issue is if Ells is having a big season and the Sox are already out of contention, what is Ells worth considering the Boras factor? I can't see any team offering up a top tier prospect with cost control for half a season of Ells, unless there is some certainty of signing Ells. With Boras, the certainty mid season prior to free agency is zero. 

     

    Isnt Hill correct? Ells clearly has been available, and the Sox have publicly stated that they tried to resign Ells. So far nothing. The Sox have 2 options. Play out the year with him, and watch him go to free agency, or trade him for dimes on the dollar. 

    I assume the Sox trade Ells today for Wheeler or Bauer. That type of deal simply is not available today, nor will it be at the trade deadline. 

     




    i disagree, contending teams are willing to part with their future for a chance to win TODAY. Every year at the deadline you have 1 team giving up a significany prospect for a rental.

     

     




    Of course they will part with a top prospect if they think a certain player is the missing piece to a possible WSC...Its done EVERY YEAR...

     




    we gotta stop agreeing so much or pike will start to think we are the same person :p

    i'm thinking of a number between 1 and 100. GO!

     

  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: trade Ellsbury before the season starts

    posted at 3/2/2013 11:52 AM EST

    They SHOULD have already traded Ellsbury, either alone or packaged up with another player like Salty or a minor league position player in return for a top tier prospect, preferably a pitching prospect. That did not happen. Now they are stuck with him and hopefully he can manage to stay healthy until the trade deadline, by which time we will likely be substantially out of the race for the playoffs. Thats our next decent opportunity to move him and bring Bradley up.

    As regard the previous comment that Delarosa will bump Lackey to a #5 SP, well, Lackey is ALREADY a #5 SP-the worst on the staff. He does not need Delarosa's help in that regard. Also, Delarosa is not going to be turned loose this year: he is going to be limited on his number of innings. Look for him to make a splash next year, along with Webster.

     

  7. This post has been removed.

     

  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: trade Ellsbury before the season starts

    posted at 3/2/2013 11:58 AM EST

    While the market for Ellsbury might be not much now, if a team with 2013 aspriatons loses their CF for the year, it absolutely opens the market for Ellsbury.  Say Austin Jackson, Denard Span, BJ Upton, or Matt Kemp get injured during ST?  Or Leonys Martin?  And probably a few others.  Adam Eaton?  Angel Pagan? Ben Revere?  None of these players are immune to season-ending injury.   If Ellsbury does have a season-ending injury in ST, it probably helps Boston, as it has potential effects on his short term demands.  Why turn down a Qualifying Offer after a missed season?

    We should have tried to get Bauer for Jacoby earlier this winter.

     

    As it stands now, there are actually 2 teams that could use Ellsbury - Tampa and the Yankees.  NY is likely to stopgap for the first 10 weeks, but Tampa would already by better off making a move for him short term, but that team rarely makes big short term moves.   Whether or not Boston woudld help either is another matter, although if they are running up the white flag on2013 it makes sense to steal from the future of either of these teams while trying to build their own.

    TB would love the comp draft pick after Jacoby walks next winter. We'd probably have to pay part of his contract though.

     

    The White Sox are probably another team that could use Ellsbury right now.  The drawback with them is the poor minor league system all but devoid of anything anyone else wants.

    Would you offer Jacoby plus one of Miller or Mortensen for 2 of these 3 CWS pitching prospects?

    Erik Johnson, Scott Snodgrass, and Andre Rienzo

    I have thought that the CWS might be interested in Salty, but I guess they have faith in Flowers. 

    I might do an Ellsbury for Floyd deal if we could extend him.

     

     

  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: trade Ellsbury before the season starts

    posted at 3/2/2013 12:29 PM EST

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to rkarp's comment:

     

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

     

    Elles value will be max this summer.... certainly it will be no less than it is now but chances are if healthy it will be very high summertime.

     



    The issue is if Ells is having a big season and the Sox are already out of contention, what is Ells worth considering the Boras factor? I can't see any team offering up a top tier prospect with cost control for half a season of Ells, unless there is some certainty of signing Ells. With Boras, the certainty mid season prior to free agency is zero. 

     

    Isnt Hill correct? Ells clearly has been available, and the Sox have publicly stated that they tried to resign Ells. So far nothing. The Sox have 2 options. Play out the year with him, and watch him go to free agency, or trade him for dimes on the dollar. 

    I assume the Sox trade Ells today for Wheeler or Bauer. That type of deal simply is not available today, nor will it be at the trade deadline. 

     




    i disagree, contending teams are willing to part with their future for a chance to win TODAY. Every year at the deadline you have 1 team giving up a significany prospect for a rental.

     

     




    Of course they will part with a top prospect if they think a certain player is the missing piece to a possible WSC...Its done EVERY YEAR...

     

     




    we gotta stop agreeing so much or pike will start to think we are the same person :p

     

    i'm thinking of a number between 1 and 100. GO!




    69

     

  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: trade Ellsbury before the season starts

    posted at 3/2/2013 12:34 PM EST

    BenC has to plant the Ells trade seed very discretely. Once it's on the street he can guage the possibilities. There's a market for him--the questions are:

    Will the return be acceptable?

    I feel with Victorino available to play CF you're not losing much on defense. We can then afford to wait before calling up JBJ. Since this is a longer than usual ST we can  also  wait a few weeks to get a glimpse of Brentz to see if he can handle RF without having to promote Linares to the 40 man roster.

    I would plant the seed and see what the market is.

     

  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: trade Ellsbury before the season starts

    posted at 3/2/2013 12:37 PM EST

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to rkarp's comment:

     

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

     

    Elles value will be max this summer.... certainly it will be no less than it is now but chances are if healthy it will be very high summertime.

     



    The issue is if Ells is having a big season and the Sox are already out of contention, what is Ells worth considering the Boras factor? I can't see any team offering up a top tier prospect with cost control for half a season of Ells, unless there is some certainty of signing Ells. With Boras, the certainty mid season prior to free agency is zero. 

     

    Isnt Hill correct? Ells clearly has been available, and the Sox have publicly stated that they tried to resign Ells. So far nothing. The Sox have 2 options. Play out the year with him, and watch him go to free agency, or trade him for dimes on the dollar. 

    I assume the Sox trade Ells today for Wheeler or Bauer. That type of deal simply is not available today, nor will it be at the trade deadline. 

     




    i disagree, contending teams are willing to part with their future for a chance to win TODAY. Every year at the deadline you have 1 team giving up a significany prospect for a rental.

     

     




    Of course they will part with a top prospect if they think a certain player is the missing piece to a possible WSC...Its done EVERY YEAR...

     

     




    we gotta stop agreeing so much or pike will start to think we are the same person :p

     

    i'm thinking of a number between 1 and 100. GO!

     




    69

     




    sorry.....it was #2. Big numbah 2 to be exact :)

     

  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: trade Ellsbury before the season starts

    posted at 3/2/2013 12:56 PM EST

    In response to MadMc44's comment:

    BenC has to plant the Ells trade seed very discretely. Once it's on the street he can guage the possibilities. There's a market for him--the questions are:

    Will the return be acceptable?

    I feel with Victorino available to play CF you're not losing much on defense. We can then afford to wait before calling up JBJ. Since this is a longer than usual ST we can  also  wait a few weeks to get a glimpse of Brentz to see if he can handle RF without having to promote Linares to the 40 man roster.

    I would plant the seed and see what the market is.



    I suspect the seed was planted in October and Ben Cherington is still waiting for a sprout.

     

  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from LeftyGrove. Show LeftyGrove's posts

    Re: trade Ellsbury before the season starts

    posted at 3/2/2013 2:47 PM EST

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:

    Excellent post, The season has not even begun. The Sox with the right mix of people playing to their potential can compete for a playoff spot.  There is talent here, and it appears good clubhouse chemistry. Clearly Ellsbury has not the most outgoing personality, and if the Sox can get some trade value in his walk year, then go for it, most likely later in the year.

    This year as in any other, we can rant and root, but what happens on the field is on the players. Past numbers are predictors, but how that translates into the new season is a combination of player attitude, team health, team unity.

    This thread is titled "trade Ellsbury before the season starts."

    What team needs Jacoby Ellsbury "before the season starts" and would be willing to trade a "significant prospect"?

    The Mets dealt outfielder Carlos Beltran (and cash) near the trade deadline in 2011 for one top prospect in righthander Zack Wheeler.

    At the height of the Hot Stove Season, the Indians in December traded outfielder Shin-Soo Choo and others in a three-team deal for righthander Trevor Bauer and others.

    I suspect the market for Jacoby Ellsbury is thin during Spring Training.

    Returning to my original question, what specific team would trade a "significant prospect" for Jacoby Ellsbury before the season starts?

    For example, would the Texas Rangers trade lefthander Martin Perez, a fading prospect, for Ellsbury? I doubt that would happen. A well-run club such as the Rangers won't panic just because the team opens Spring Training with a 1-6 record.

     




     

     

    All it takes is the right injury to re-open the market for Ellsbury.

     

    However, with the AL EAst as wide open as it is, I doubt the Sox have thrown in the towel as quickly as many of their fans...




     

  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: trade Ellsbury before the season starts

    posted at 3/2/2013 2:57 PM EST

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to notin's comment:

    All it takes is the right injury to re-open the market for Ellsbury.

    Or the wrong injury to Jacoby Ellsbury to close the market.

    Seriously?   Are you going with that?  As if it is unique to Ellsbury?  Name one player who gets injured and it opens the market.   Didn't the injury to Aaron Boone open the market for A-Rod just a little bit more?



    My point was that an injury to Jacoby Ellsbury this year would likely close the trade market for his services in this his final season before free agency.

     

  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: trade Ellsbury before the season starts

    posted at 3/2/2013 3:24 PM EST

    Y'all in fantasy land.

    Ells is not getting traded at this point.

    JBJ is not starting the season with the RS.

    Teams usually don't trade in March except under catastrophic conditions.  The rosters are set.  Contending teams know who they expect to start.  Maybe one or two are choosing between two guys for their #5 SP, and their bench and the back end of their BP.

    In order for Ellsbury to get traded, you need a good CF, for a contender, that has no AAA fill-in, to get injured.  You'd need an injury to someone like Trout or Kemp to get someone's interest, and even then, they'd need to knock our socks off.

     

  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: trade Ellsbury before the season starts

    posted at 3/2/2013 3:31 PM EST

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to rkarp's comment:

     

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

     

    Elles value will be max this summer.... certainly it will be no less than it is now but chances are if healthy it will be very high summertime.

     



    The issue is if Ells is having a big season and the Sox are already out of contention, what is Ells worth considering the Boras factor? I can't see any team offering up a top tier prospect with cost control for half a season of Ells, unless there is some certainty of signing Ells. With Boras, the certainty mid season prior to free agency is zero. 

     

    Isnt Hill correct? Ells clearly has been available, and the Sox have publicly stated that they tried to resign Ells. So far nothing. The Sox have 2 options. Play out the year with him, and watch him go to free agency, or trade him for dimes on the dollar. 

    I assume the Sox trade Ells today for Wheeler or Bauer. That type of deal simply is not available today, nor will it be at the trade deadline. 

     




    i disagree, contending teams are willing to part with their future for a chance to win TODAY. Every year at the deadline you have 1 team giving up a significany prospect for a rental.

     

     




    Of course they will part with a top prospect if they think a certain player is the missing piece to a possible WSC...Its done EVERY YEAR...

     

     




    we gotta stop agreeing so much or pike will start to think we are the same person :p

     

    i'm thinking of a number between 1 and 100. GO!

     




    69

     



    lol...good number....

     

  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: trade Ellsbury before the season starts

    posted at 3/2/2013 3:48 PM EST

    I think the Sox are in a great position, as Ells needs to put together a great year going into FA.  I look for him to put up good to great numbers.  So far so good.  It's a win for the Sox, as he hopefully helps to keep us in contention for a WC spot.  If we're out of the hunt, we will likely deal Ells to a contender before the trade deadline.  For a leadoff hitter / CF with his speed, hitting avg. & OBP, the Sox should net a top prospect.  JBJ likely hits the stage down the stretch for an exciting run. 

    We will NOT be dealing Ells early in the season, so enjoy the end to his time with the Sox, & get ready for the JBJ era. :)  I'd love to keep Ells, Victorino, & add JBJ to the mix for 2014, but it ain't gonna happen as Ells will fetch about a $17 - 20 Million / yr., 5 - 6 yr. contract.  This is way too high a price for the Sox in my estimation.  Bad move considering our reluctance to jump from the fire to the frying pan......   AGAIN.

    So, relax and enjoy :)

     

  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: trade Ellsbury before the season starts

    posted at 3/2/2013 3:59 PM EST

    Worst case scenario?  Yankees sign Ells to a 7 yr. deal & he maximizes his potential, killing the Sox for the forseeable future.

    Best case scenario?  Yankees sing Ells to a $22 mil / year , 10 yr. contract & he pulls a Crawford :)

     

  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: trade Ellsbury before the season starts

    posted at 3/2/2013 4:05 PM EST

    Ellsbury has a reputation for being fragile.  His value will go up this season if he stays healthy and productive - the closer we get to the trade deadline, the greater his value, as the risk to the acquiring team is minimized.  If you're a contender, you're going to be a contender with or without Ellsbury - chances are you're just looking to strenghten your post-season chances at that point.

     

  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: trade Ellsbury before the season starts

    posted at 3/2/2013 4:19 PM EST

    Actually, moonslav, we should have traded Ellsbury after his unduplicatable 2011 season, which was my stance back then.  At that time, he was at his peak and with 2 years of control left.  An offer of Trevor Bauer at that point would have been laughable.

     

  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from softlaw2. Show softlaw2's posts

    Re: trade Ellsbury before the season starts

    posted at 3/2/2013 4:34 PM EST

    "Sell low, buy high" The Life and Times of InEpstein and Cherry  $29.99 at all book stores

     

  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: trade Ellsbury before the season starts

    posted at 3/2/2013 4:48 PM EST

    In response to slomag's comment:

    Ellsbury has a reputation for being fragile.



    not really, he has a reputation for taking too long to come back from injury. big difference. He's only been on the DL 2 times in his entire career and aside from the time missed during those 2 injuries has missed less than 30 games. Very durable when other players don't collide with him...

     

  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: trade Ellsbury before the season starts

    posted at 3/2/2013 4:48 PM EST

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    "Sell low, buy high" The Life and Times of InEpstein and Cherry  $29.99 at all book stores




    What will Stiffy say if Ells has a big season? 

    "He was protected by the big hitting........"  Blah blah blah....

    Just how will the stiff one reframe the argument then???

     

  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: trade Ellsbury before the season starts

    posted at 3/2/2013 4:55 PM EST

    In response to redsoxdirtdog's comment:

     

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

     

    "Sell low, buy high" The Life and Times of InEpstein and Cherry  $29.99 at all book stores

     




    What will Stiffy say if Ells has a big season? 

     

    "He was protected by the big hitting........"  Blah blah blah....

    Just how will the stiff one reframe the argument then???

     




    just like in 2011, he will attribute the numbers to the batters hitting behind him... which really only account for his runs scored - # of homeruns. But as we all know, Stiffy doesn't let logic get in his way.

     

     

  25. This post has been removed.