The Red Sox look like they'll be contending this year. Why not try to win a World Series?

Would you send Lester, Bailey, Drew, Lavarnway and Webster to Philadelphia for Lee and Papelbon? The Phillies gain significant salary relief and three younger players who can contribute right away at the major league level in Lester, Lavarnway, and Webster. Bailey gets a chance to close for his hometown team (he's from southern New Jersey and grew up a Phillies fan). Drew is a throw-in for salary considerations and to open up an everyday spot for Iglesias. If Middlebrooks continues to struggle, Boegarts could get the call.

first place teams looking to win the world series do not have this much roster turnover during the season. They look to bolster their team not give it a make over. I'd be happy with a quiet trade deadline, one where we only pick up a good reliever. A lot can still go wrong by then requiring a more drastic move. The most likely scenario being a deal involving a SP to replace someone in our rotation who is out for the year. But targets at this point are a bit premature, still not clear who is a contender and who is a pretender.

But for the sake of argument i wouldn't be looking to trade for Lee or Paps unless Philly ate a serious amount of the contract. Both contracts have what 3, 4 years left on them?? No way i want to pay that much for either of them over the next 3+ years. A guy i'd have feelers out for is Yovanni Gallardo from the Brewers. but staying true to my "if it aint broke dont fix it" POV i would only try to make that deal at the deadline if one of our SP falls off the map in 1 way or another.

MASTER OF PUPPETS I'M PULLING YOUR STRINGS!!
TWISTING YOUR MIND AND SMASHING YOUR DREAMS!!
BLINDED BY ME YOU CAN'T SEE A THING!!
JUST CALL MY NAME 'CUZ I'LL HEAR YOU SCREAM!!
MASTER!! MASTER!!

If Philly trades Lee and Papelbon, it won't be for Drew, Lester and Bailey. Most will be FAs after this year. Lava is not close to being enough to get just one of these guys.

We'd have to trade Bogaerts, Bradley, Barnes, Lava and more to get both.

I say no.

 

If the Dodgers get back in the race, we may be able to swindle them into taking Lester and Mortensen for Zach Lee.

Then, we could flip Z Lee and maybe add Brentz and Barnes to get Gallardo and Henderson.

Sox4ever

In response to moonslav59's comment:
[QUOTE]

If Philly trades Lee and Papelbon, it won't be for Drew, Lester and Bailey. Most will be FAs after this year. Lava is not close to being enough to get just one of these guys.

We'd have to trade Bogaerts, Bradley, Barnes, Lava and more to get both.

I say no.

 

If the Dodgers get back in the race, we may be able to swindle them into taking Lester and Mortensen for Zach Lee.

Then, we could flip Z Lee and maybe add Brentz and Barnes to get Gallardo and Henderson.

Sox4e

 

You really ARE..off your rocker. This isn't the stock market where you FLIP...trades or players. It's complicated enough to get one trade through.stick to being bill James ok..at leat you're decent at that..

In response to moonslav59's comment:

If I got Lee for Lester+, I'd keep him.  Lee, Barnes and Brentz would be an overpay for Gallardo.

This post has been removed.

Exactly, great point. Root for the team that we have, otherwise you don't have a team that you identify with.  This isn't "day-trading " on the stock market.  At some point in time during the season a fan needs to decide to root for the team as it stands, otherwise he is rooting for himself which is much like fantasy baseball or playing poker.  Do you also wish to trade your siblings or parents because you were dealt a bad hand. Be a fan. It isn't that difficult.

Stop trying to tell people how to be a fan.

I love the Sox, and have been their biggest fan ever since 1972. Thinking we can get better does not make me a worse fan that you. In fact, not wanting us to get better is a puzzling stance for any true fan.

How are you "identifying" with Bailey? Going by your logic, it's pointless and anti-fan tzo think we can do better.

I'm glad Theo didn't "root for Nomar" in 2004. We'd have no ring.

 

Sox4ever

Regardless of what Philly wants, I don’t think the Red Sox could afford to take on both Cliff Lee and Papelbon.  It would have to be one or the other, and I certainly hope it would be Lee.  Heading into the trading deadline, I think the Red Sox and Philly match up well for a trade.  I’m wondering if Philly would have any interest in Lester.  Obviously, Middlebrooks’s stock Is low right now, but would Philly be willing to pounce on that as opportunity to acquire a player that could have a huge upside?  I realize the Red Sox could be losing a potential slugger, but if Boegarts could make a transition to third, Middlebrooks would be out anyway, and I’m not sure it’s worth waiting him out to move him to first base.  I think it might be a safer risk for Bogey to develop as a third base man sooner than they would make Middlebrooks their everyday first base man. 

 

I’m all for trading for a better shot at a ring if it’s within sight, but I’d be hesitant to offer a blue chip prospect.  Lester + for Lee is great if Philly is interested.  The question is: Who is the plus?

Ahh....this is why it's a tough one to be GM. The Sox are pretty much on top of the AL and it's late June. You HAVE to put them in playoff positioning for the stretch.  A lot of the suggestions are possible, but I'm not even going to go near this one...

the team needs a certifiable closer and a #2 type starter IMHO. How Ben does it...I dunno.

Farrell has these guys playing to win. You don't throw that away. It's a great squad to watch, quietly winning without the floodlights on them. I love it.

In response to klaus1954's comment:

I've fantasized about this one, but besides human trafficking being illegal, it wouldn't put me in good standing with the family members that I do like.  

 

In response to Sobchack's comment:

Is it possible you meant " a certified closer " ?      I think Al " The Mad Hungarian " Hrabosky or perhaps Brad ' The Animal " Lesley were the last " certifiable" closers seen in M.L. captivity , LOL.

gallardo is a guy i would like to see the sox pursue as well, he is young (27) and has top of the rotation ability. forget old guys like cliff lee who is on a terrible contract, trade for young  talent. having a rotation of gallardo, buchholz, lester, lackey and dempster looks good to me. doubront and prospects could entice the brewers. 

In response to makonikyman's comment:

Thats a ton for a guy whos a FA after 2014(13M option for 2015), has a 1.3WHIP, 3.4BB a game, gives up a lot of HR's.

Hes does have a career 3.70ERA (currently (4.41) takes the ball every 5 days and can get you 200K and IP every year.

Very very very close to Jon Lesters numbers. So basically, we should trade our castaways to one team for one of their top young arms, then trade him along with some of our young prospects for 1 extra year of a pitcher that is basically Jon Lester from the right side?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gallayo01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lestejo01.shtml

 

 

One SP is what we need and I would look at either Houston or Miami for help. Maybe Fernandez or Nolasco. 

Give the closer role to Tazawa or Uehara.

We don't need any help on offense.







"You don't save a pitcher for tomorrow.  Tomorrow it may rain."  ~ Leo Durocher

 

We have 25 pretty decent players. Maybe 7 or 8  people who are in the regular day in and day out that you would consider the core---not that they are not tradeable but they are people you have to replace. If you were sellers you might bring up , internally,  players to replace them and get added prospects for depth in trade for them. 

Today if you could move: Dempster, Doubrount, Bailey, Mort, Aceves, Salty, Drew, Ross, Gomes, WMB, Carp, Wilson----Are these players easily replaceable/ expendable. 

Bubble guys: Iggy, Nava, Miller, Breslow, Taz, Lester----contributors but expendable.

Keepers: Pedroia, Ortiz, Ells, Victorino-------Maybe Napoli.

Pretty Dependable Pitchers, Keepers---Lackey, Ue, Buch.

So who do you trade and who do you keep? Who could help that you could bring in.

Does anyone know if Bailey has options? Remember Melancon,  he found a home as a set up guy for Grilli in Pittsburg--37 appearances--.99 ERA---1.19 WHIP. He spent a lot of time at AAA last season.

The other question---if you replace the closer--is everyone okay-if we move Bailey to mop up or to AAA for a month and find Mr. Dependable--are we okay?

????Add Dempster to the Closer competition---He worked out of the pen--good control--knows how to pitch. Calming influence. Ue has been great in the 8 th and he's closed. Perhaps he's the guy you start with?

I could see the Sox going after Jesse Crain, for one of Brentz, Workman, Britton or Marrero.

 

Gallardo is no better than Lester, and his 90% contact rate is a huge factor.

 

And the Brewers bullpen has no solution for anyone.  Henderson has been AWFUL since returning from the DL...

“Listen to the mustn'ts, child. Listen to the don'ts. Listen to the shouldn'ts, the impossibles, the won'ts. Listen to the never haves, then listen close to me. Anything can happen, child. Anything can be.”

-Shel Silverstein

In response to Alibiike's comment:

Nolasco is likely available but Fernandez is definitely off limits.  And probably on an innings limit that shuts him down in August...

In response to notin's comment:

 

In response to Alibiike's comment:

 

 

 

One SP is what we need and I would look at either Houston or Miami for help. Maybe Fernandez or Nolasco. 

Give the closer role to Tazawa or Uehara.

We don't need any help on offense.







"You don't save a pitcher for tomorrow.  Tomorrow it may rain."  ~ Leo Durocher

 

 

Nolasco is likely available but Fernandez is definitely off limits.  And probably on an innings limit that shuts him down in August...

 

 

 

Nolasco is pitching pretty good this year, but Im not sure hes the answer. His track record is a little scary and I wouldnt want to give up much at all for a career 4.50era guy who gives up a lot of hits for 2 months.

I have brought up paps and RDLR for closer, but the more I think about it, Jesse Crain could be the guy. hes only owed 4.5M and is a FA next year. It solves a short term need and probably wouldnt cost a lot.

I dont think your going to see the Sox trade many, if any, current players away. They've got this far because of their depth and I wouldnt expect them to sell it off.

You can't always worry about the future when you have a good shot at a championship in the present. Do you think Washington is regretting now its handling of Strausburg last year? I'm not suggesting the Red Sox mortgage everything, but standing pat would be foolish too. They're not that far away from legitimate championship contention.

The Red Sox are in a position to win right now. If they add another ace to pair up with Buchholz, they're in great shape heading into the second half of the season and October. Boston is not a small market team. It has the resources to afford an exorbitant contract. Maybe adding both Lee and Papelbon in the same deal is too much, but the Red Sox could definitely trade for one of them, and I'd prefer that it be Lee.

Lester, Lavarnway and Middlebrooks for Lee would be a reasonable swap for both teams. The Phillies would save money, they'd add two young players who could possibly start for them in the near future in Lavarnway and Middlebrooks, and Lester who is already a reasonably good pitcher would improve against National League lineups. Meanwhile, the Red Sox would add a proven No. 1 pitcher and open up an everyday spot for Jose Iglesias.

Forget about Gallardo and these second-tier guys. Don't trade for people just because they're young and have upside. When you're trying to win now, you get guys who will help you win now. Lee is a proven top shelf commodity.

In response to davidap's comment:

First of all Philly has Jimmy Rollins so they have no need for a 9.5 million dollar back up shortstop, 2nd of all why would you give up Webster when you are already giving them Lester for an older expensive pitcher. i would not do this deal at all

The market for starting pitchers is sparse, according to this FanGraphs analysis:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/shopping-for-a-starting-pitcher-good-luck/

In response to davidap's comment:

The Sox wont go over the luxury tax. These 2 contracts equaling 38M will do just that.

In response to klaus1954's comment:

 

In response to makonikyman's comment:

 

 

 

In response to moonslav59's comment:
[QUOTE]

If Philly trades Lee and Papelbon, it won't be for Drew, Lester and Bailey. Most will be FAs after this year. Lava is not close to being enough to get just one of these guys.

We'd have to trade Bogaerts, Bradley, Barnes, Lava and more to get both.

I say no.

 

If the Dodgers get back in the race, we may be able to swindle them into taking Lester and Mortensen for Zach Lee.

Then, we could flip Z Lee and maybe add Brentz and Barnes to get Gallardo and Henderson.

Sox4e

 

You really ARE..off your rocker. This isn't the stock market where you FLIP...trades or players. It's complicated enough to get one trade through.stick to being bill James ok..at leat you're decent at that..

 

 

 

 

Exactly, great point. Root for the team that we have, otherwise you don't have a team that you identify with.  This isn't "day-trading " on the stock market.  At some point in time during the season a fan needs to decide to root for the team as it stands, otherwise he is rooting for himself which is much like fantasy baseball or playing poker.  Do you also wish to trade your siblings or parents because you were dealt a bad hand. Be a fan. It isn't that difficult.

 

I heard your parents put you on waivers, Pike. When no one was interested, they then had you DFA'd.

 

In response to southpaw777's comment:

We wouldn't be paying the full amount this year. We'd only pay a third or about $13M, assuming Phill doesn't chip in any. I think that still puts us over the cap, unless we dump some salary ourselves (one of more of Drew, Aceves, Ells, SV...)

 

I know everyone wants a closer, but we may be able to fill that role from within by the deadline.

I have always wanted a quality SP, but the cost will probably be too high.

That leaves one other big team weakness that may be filled this deadline: The big Right-handed bat for the middle of the order. The only "open slots" for a player like that are 3B and OF. Here is a look at some teams that are out of it, or may be by July 31st.

Note (read carefully Pike):

I am not saying I am for getting any of these guys. I am just offering up some possible available players or players at the positions I noted that would fill that void:

I'm not a big fan of Michael Young, but he's certainly better than MWB right now. Another name might be Aramis Ramirez from the Brewers, who are out of it right now. He is 35 and is owed $16M next year. He's dropped off a lot from 2012, but still hits lefties over .800 (.718 vs RHPs). Last year, he was 1.049 vs LHPs and .853 vs RHPs. He led the NL in 2Bs with 50 and still had 27 HRs and 105 RBIs. He makes $10M this year, so only about 3.4m will be owed after the deadline. There is a mutual option for 2015 with a $4M buyout, so essentially, he is owed about $23M for the rest of 2013 and all of 2014.  Can yoy, "salary dump"?

That would mean one of 2 things:

1) We wouldn't have to give up much in terms of prospects to take on his salary.

2) The Brewers would pay part of his contract in return for better prospects.

Michael Young is 36 and has a .760 OPS right now (.682 last year). He is better vs LHPs this year (.858) than Ramirez. He's also better vs RHPs (.730 to .718), but he was much worse last year: .794 vs LHPs and .643 vs RHPs. He makes $16M this year and then is a FA. That would come to about $5.5M after the deadline.

Other big RH'd bat options from teams out of it or looking to rebuild:

Miami: G Stanton (OF), Justin Ruggiano (OF)

NYM: D Wright (3B) (it would take a ton of prospects to pry him loose.)

Philly: John Mayberry (OF)

LAD: Juan Uribe (3B), Matt Kemp (OF), Scott Van Slyke (OF)

SD: Chase Headley (3B), Carlos Quentin (OF) (add H Street?)

Minn: J Willingham (OF)

CWS: Alex Rios (OF) (add Jesse Crain)

SEA: Kyle Seager (3B) but bats lefty, Mike Morse (1B/OF), K Morales (1B/DH) #, J Bay (OF)

LAA: Bourjos (CF), Trout (CF), Trumbo, A Callaspo # (3B) would cost 2 arms and 2 legs for just 1, and these guys are all part of the Angels' longterm plans.

 

Some multiple player deals could include:

Young and C Lee (or Papelbon) from Philly

A Ramirez and Gallardo from Milw.

Rios and Crain from CWS

Headley and Street from SD

 

In response to moonslav59's comment:

Im also looking abead to next year as well. after adding up our payroll and including Lester, because at 13m I think they will stick with him. Arb cases and possible offseason signigs, those 2 contracts wont give is any flexability. Plus depleting some prospects that are vital for the long term.