Im also looking abead to next year as well. after adding up our payroll and including Lester, because at 13m I think they will stick with him. Arb cases and possible offseason signigs, those 2 contracts wont give is any flexability. Plus depleting some prospects that are vital for the long term.
It's not as bad as it looks. We can always trade some high arb guys, if we have to.
Here's how the numbers look for the luxury tax budget:
$16.5M Lackey (then club option at min. wage*)
$13.25M Dempster (then FA)
$13M Victorino (then $13M for 2015 and then FA)
$13M Ortiz (then FA)
*$13M Club Option on Lester (with $.25M buyout
$7.5M Buchholz (through 2015 with club options for $13M '16 & $13.5M '17 w .5M buyout)
$6.75M Pedroia (signed through 2014 with 2015 club option @ $11M w $.5M buyout)
$5M Gomes (then FA)
$3.1M Breslow (then FA)
$3.1M Ross (then FA)
Sub Total: ~$81.5M without Lester (9 players)and $93M with Lester (10 players).
Uehara (3 of 3) made $4.25M in 2013 > $6M
Bailey (3 of 3) made $4.1M > $5.5M
Aceves (3 of 3) made 2.65M > $3M
Bard (2 of 3) made $1.86M > 1M (or DFA'd)
Iglesias (IFA signing) made $2M > $3M (?)
Morales (3 of 3) made $1.49M > $2M
Miller (3 of 3) made 1.48M > $2M
Tazawa (1 of 3) made $815K > $1.25M
Carp (1 of 3) made $508K > $1.25M
Sub Total Arb estimate: $25M (9 players)
Doubront (pre- arb, then 3 arbs) made $518K
Nava (pre-arb, then 3 arbs) made $505K
Mortensen (pre-arb, then 3 arbs) made $505K
Kalish (pre-arb, then 3 arbs) made $498K
Middlebrooks (pre-arb) made $498K
Pre-arbs that make $490K this year: Bradley, Britton, Butler, de la Rosa, de la Torre, Hassan, Holt, Lavarnway, Vazquez, Wilson, and Wright.
Sub Total Pre-Arb estimate: $8M (16 players)
TOTAL : ~ $127M (35 players with Lester) / 115M (34 players with no Lester)
That's a total of 31-35 players depending on Lester and Bard, but a few other players might be dealt or cut (Butler, Hassan, Wright)
5-10 players (Rule 5 pending) that might be added to 40 man roster this winter or lost: add about $3-4M to the total.
40 man roster total: ~$130M with Lester/ $119M without Lester
The following players will be eligible for the 2013 Rule 5 Draft if they are not added to the 40-man roster by November 20, 2013:
Mario Alcantara, Michael Almanzar, Chris Balcom-Miller, Carson Blair, Xander Bogaerts, Bryce Brentz, Chris Carpenter, Garin Cecchini, Keith Couch, William Cuevas, Keury De La Cruz, Luis Diaz, Leonel Escobar, Derrik Gibson, Dreily Guerrero, Jeremy Hazelbaker, Jayson Hernandez, Chris Hernandez, Peter Hissey, Brandon Jacobs, Jeremy Kehrt, Aaron King, Aaron Kurcz, Juan Carlos Linares, Mario Martinez, Heiker Meneses, Boss Moanaroa, Nefi Ogando, Gerardo Olivares, Yunior Ortega, Oscar Perez, Rafael Perez, Mathew Price, Anthony Ranaudo, David Renfroe, Pete Ruiz, Felix Sanchez, Brandon Snyder, Alfredo Soto, Kyle Stroup, Francisco Taveras, Raynel Velette, Jose Vinicio, Kolbrin Vitek, Stefan Welch, Shannon Wilkerson, Brandon Workman, Madison Younginer
So, basically our luxury tax budget will be between $119 and $130M depending on Lester, plus the player pension ($11.1M?) and the Dodger payment of $3.9M for 2014 (then one more for 2015).
The final number will be about:
$134M without Lester
$145M with Lester
(not counting extensions, FA signings, trades or player releases)
I think the cap number goes to $189M in 2014, so that leaves us:
$44M with Lester
$55M with no Lester.
That's enough for Lee and Papelbon, but not much more.
(Note: I'm not for spending prospects and so much money on these two guys.)