Trade Proposals

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  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Trade Proposals

    In response to mjagger's comment:

    In response to klaus1954's comment:

     

    In response to makonikyman's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If Philly trades Lee and Papelbon, it won't be for Drew, Lester and Bailey. Most will be FAs after this year. Lava is not close to being enough to get just one of these guys.

    We'd have to trade Bogaerts, Bradley, Barnes, Lava and more to get both.

    I say no.

     

    If the Dodgers get back in the race, we may be able to swindle them into taking Lester and Mortensen for Zach Lee.

    Then, we could flip Z Lee and maybe add Brentz and Barnes to get Gallardo and Henderson.

    Sox4e

     

    You really ARE..off your rocker. This isn't the stock market where you FLIP...trades or players. It's complicated enough to get one trade through.stick to being bill James ok..at leat you're decent at that..

     

     



     

     

    Exactly, great point. Root for the team that we have, otherwise you don't have a team that you identify with.  This isn't "day-trading " on the stock market.  At some point in time during the season a fan needs to decide to root for the team as it stands, otherwise he is rooting for himself which is much like fantasy baseball or playing poker.  Do you also wish to trade your siblings or parents because you were dealt a bad hand. Be a fan. It isn't that difficult.

     



    I heard your parents put you on waivers, Pike.

     



    So, when Theo traded Nomar for Cabrera, Pike kept rooting for his sibling and against Orlando.

    Makes sense... to a fool.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Trade Proposals

    Im also looking abead to next year as well. after adding up our payroll and including Lester, because at 13m I think they will stick with him. Arb cases and possible offseason signigs, those 2 contracts wont give is any flexability. Plus depleting some prospects that are vital for the long term.

    It's not as bad as it looks. We can always trade some high arb guys, if we have to.

    Here's how the numbers look for the luxury tax budget:

    2014

    $16.5M Lackey (then club option at min. wage*)

    $13.25M Dempster (then FA)

    $13M Victorino (then $13M for 2015 and then FA)

    $13M Ortiz (then FA)

    *$13M Club Option on Lester (with $.25M buyout

    $7.5M Buchholz (through 2015 with club options for $13M '16 & $13.5M '17 w .5M buyout)

    $6.75M Pedroia (signed through 2014 with 2015 club option @ $11M w $.5M buyout)

    $5M Gomes (then FA)

    $3.1M Breslow (then FA)

    $3.1M Ross (then FA)

    Sub Total: ~$81.5M without Lester (9 players)and $93M with Lester (10 players).

    Arbitrations:

    Uehara (3 of 3) made $4.25M in 2013 > $6M

    Bailey (3 of 3) made $4.1M > $5.5M

    Aceves (3 of 3) made 2.65M > $3M

    Bard (2 of 3) made $1.86M > 1M (or DFA'd)

    Iglesias (IFA signing) made $2M > $3M (?)

    Morales (3 of 3) made $1.49M > $2M

    Miller (3 of 3) made 1.48M > $2M

    Tazawa (1 of 3) made $815K > $1.25M

    Carp (1 of 3) made $508K > $1.25M

    Sub Total Arb estimate: $25M (9 players)

    Doubront (pre- arb, then 3 arbs) made $518K

    Nava (pre-arb, then 3 arbs) made $505K

    Mortensen (pre-arb, then 3 arbs) made $505K

    Kalish (pre-arb, then 3 arbs) made $498K

    Middlebrooks (pre-arb) made $498K

    Pre-arbs that make $490K this year: Bradley, Britton, Butler, de la Rosa, de la Torre, Hassan, Holt, Lavarnway, Vazquez, Wilson, and Wright.

    Sub Total Pre-Arb estimate: $8M (16 players)

    TOTAL : ~ $127M (35 players with Lester) / 115M (34 players with no Lester)

    That's a total of 31-35 players depending on Lester and Bard, but a few other players might be dealt or cut (Butler, Hassan, Wright)

    5-10 players (Rule 5 pending) that might be added to 40 man roster this winter or lost: add about $3-4M to the total.

    40 man roster total: ~$130M with Lester/ $119M without Lester

    The following players will be eligible for the 2013 Rule 5 Draft if they are not added to the 40-man roster by November 20, 2013:

    Mario Alcantara, Michael Almanzar, Chris Balcom-Miller, Carson Blair, Xander BogaertsBryce Brentz, Chris Carpenter, Garin Cecchini, Keith Couch, William Cuevas, Keury De La Cruz, Luis Diaz, Leonel Escobar, Derrik Gibson, Dreily Guerrero, Jeremy Hazelbaker, Jayson Hernandez, Chris Hernandez, Peter Hissey, Brandon Jacobs, Jeremy Kehrt, Aaron King, Aaron Kurcz, Juan Carlos Linares, Mario Martinez, Heiker Meneses, Boss Moanaroa, Nefi Ogando, Gerardo Olivares, Yunior Ortega, Oscar Perez, Rafael Perez, Mathew Price, Anthony Ranaudo, David Renfroe, Pete Ruiz, Felix Sanchez, Brandon Snyder, Alfredo Soto, Kyle Stroup, Francisco Taveras, Raynel Velette, Jose Vinicio, Kolbrin Vitek, Stefan Welch, Shannon Wilkerson, Brandon Workman, Madison Younginer

     

    So, basically our luxury tax budget will be between $119 and $130M depending on Lester, plus the player pension ($11.1M?) and the Dodger payment of $3.9M for 2014 (then one more for 2015). 

    The final number will be about:

     

    $134M without Lester

     

    $145M with Lester

      

     (not counting extensions, FA signings, trades or player releases)

     

     

    I think the cap number goes to $189M in 2014, so that leaves us:

    $44M with Lester

    $55M with no Lester.

    That's enough for Lee and Papelbon, but not much more.

    (Note: I'm not for spending prospects and so much money on these two guys.)

     

    Sox4ever

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from sindarin-erebor. Show sindarin-erebor's posts

    Re: Trade Proposals

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to davidap's comment:

     

    You can't always worry about the future when you have a good shot at a championship in the present. Do you think Washington is regretting now its handling of Strausburg last year? I'm not suggesting the Red Sox mortgage everything, but standing pat would be foolish too. They're not that far away from legitimate championship contention.


    The Red Sox are in a position to win right now. If they add another ace to pair up with Buchholz, they're in great shape heading into the second half of the season and October. Boston is not a small market team. It has the resources to afford an exorbitant contract. Maybe adding both Lee and Papelbon in the same deal is too much, but the Red Sox could definitely trade for one of them, and I'd prefer that it be Lee.

    Lester, Lavarnway and Middlebrooks for Lee would be a reasonable swap for both teams. The Phillies would save money, they'd add two young players who could possibly start for them in the near future in Lavarnway and Middlebrooks, and Lester who is already a reasonably good pitcher would improve against National League lineups. Meanwhile, the Red Sox would add a proven No. 1 pitcher and open up an everyday spot for Jose Iglesias.

    Forget about Gallardo and these second-tier guys. Don't trade for people just because they're young and have upside. When you're trying to win now, you get guys who will help you win now. Lee is a proven top shelf commodity.

     




    The Sox wont go over the luxury tax. These 2 contracts equaling 38M will do just that.

     

    Davidap's point is spot on. Let's hope the days of the huge, long term contract are over for the Red Sox.


     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Trade Proposals

    Beyond having players they want, I am not so sure why Sox fans automatically think Philly is in sell mode.  They are 7.5GB with 92 to play.  And I seriously doubt their GM has no faith in the roster he built.

    Not to mention, why a "rebuilding team" (as you want them to be) would want Jon Lester (potentially FA after 2013) or Stephen Drew (FA after 2013) or Ryan Lavarnway (backup catcher) or any of the other "expendables" fans figure no one needs anymore.    And the rationalizatons are NOT working.  "See they get an MLB ready catcher and a LHP."  They HAVE that stuff already!! They have a better catcher in Tommy Jospeph than Lavarnway.  And they have Lee!! If you want him, why do you think they don't?

    They had a chance to deal Lee and his contract for Ellsbury this off-season and escape his deal.  They chose to hold on to Lee.  So the finances are not as detrimental as you think, especailly as they are anticipating a Dodger-esque TV deal within the next year.   This is important for TWO reasons.  1) They do NOT need to dump salary.  And 2) they they need an actually TV-worthy product on the field, and it is doubtful and handful of players you all complain about watchng on NESN are going to fit the entertainment eneds of one of the largest TV deals in MLB...

     

    “Listen to the mustn'ts, child. Listen to the don'ts. Listen to the shouldn'ts, the impossibles, the won'ts. Listen to the never haves, then listen close to me. Anything can happen, child. Anything can be.”

    -Shel Silverstein

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Trade Proposals

    In response to Alibiike's comment:

    One SP is what we need and I would look at either Houston or Miami for help. Maybe Fernandez or Nolasco. 

    Give the closer role to Tazawa or Uehara.

    We don't need any help on offense.







    "You don't save a pitcher for tomorrow.  Tomorrow it may rain."  ~ Leo Durocher



    I see no way Miami would do it, But Bogaerts + for Hernandez and Cecchini becomes the fute 3B instead of Bogaerts.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Trade Proposals

    In response to hill55's comment:

    The market for starting pitchers is sparse, according to this FanGraphs analysis:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/shopping-for-a-starting-pitcher-good-luck/



    The article limited the teams available to those mostly out of the race.  They'll be a lot more talent coming on board as we get a little separation.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Trade Proposals

    In response to mjagger's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to davidap's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

    You can't always worry about the future when you have a good shot at a championship in the present. Do you think Washington is regretting now its handling of Strausburg last year? I'm not suggesting the Red Sox mortgage everything, but standing pat would be foolish too. They're not that far away from legitimate championship contention.


    The Red Sox are in a position to win right now. If they add another ace to pair up with Buchholz, they're in great shape heading into the second half of the season and October. Boston is not a small market team. It has the resources to afford an exorbitant contract. Maybe adding both Lee and Papelbon in the same deal is too much, but the Red Sox could definitely trade for one of them, and I'd prefer that it be Lee.

    Lester, Lavarnway and Middlebrooks for Lee would be a reasonable swap for both teams. The Phillies would save money, they'd add two young players who could possibly start for them in the near future in Lavarnway and Middlebrooks, and Lester who is already a reasonably good pitcher would improve against National League lineups. Meanwhile, the Red Sox would add a proven No. 1 pitcher and open up an everyday spot for Jose Iglesias.

    Forget about Gallardo and these second-tier guys. Don't trade for people just because they're young and have upside. When you're trying to win now, you get guys who will help you win now. Lee is a proven top shelf commodity.

     

     

     




    The Sox wont go over the luxury tax. These 2 contracts equaling 38M will do just that.

     

     

     

     

     



    We wouldn't be paying the full amount this year. We'd only pay a third or about $13M, assuming Phill doesn't chip in any. I think that still puts us over the cap, unless we dump some salary ourselves (one of more of Drew, Aceves, Ells, SV...)

     

     

     

    I know everyone wants a closer, but we may be able to fill that role from within by the deadline.

    I have always wanted a quality SP, but the cost will probably be too high.

    That leaves one other big team weakness that may be filled this deadline: The big Right-handed bat for the middle of the order. The only "open slots" for a player like that are 3B and OF. Here is a look at some teams that are out of it, or may be by July 31st.

    Note (read carefully Pike):

    I am not saying I am for getting any of these guys. I am just offering up some possible available players or players at the positions I noted that would fill that void:

    I'm not a big fan of Michael Young, but he's certainly better than MWB right now. Another name might be Aramis Ramirez from the Brewers, who are out of it right now. He is 35 and is owed $16M next year. He's dropped off a lot from 2012, but still hits lefties over .800 (.718 vs RHPs). Last year, he was 1.049 vs LHPs and .853 vs RHPs. He led the NL in 2Bs with 50 and still had 27 HRs and 105 RBIs. He makes $10M this year, so only about 3.4m will be owed after the deadline. There is a mutual option for 2015 with a $4M buyout, so essentially, he is owed about $23M for the rest of 2013 and all of 2014.  Can yoy, "salary dump"?

    That would mean one of 2 things:

    1) We wouldn't have to give up much in terms of prospects to take on his salary.

    2) The Brewers would pay part of his contract in return for better prospects.

    Michael Young is 36 and has a .760 OPS right now (.682 last year). He is better vs LHPs this year (.858) than Ramirez. He's also better vs RHPs (.730 to .718), but he was much worse last year: .794 vs LHPs and .643 vs RHPs. He makes $16M this year and then is a FA. That would come to about $5.5M after the deadline.

    Other big RH'd bat options from teams out of it or looking to rebuild:

    Miami: G Stanton (OF), Justin Ruggiano (OF)

    NYM: D Wright (3B) (it would take a ton of prospects to pry him loose.)

    Philly: John Mayberry (OF)

    LAD: Juan Uribe (3B), Matt Kemp (OF), Scott Van Slyke (OF)

    SD: Chase Headley (3B), Carlos Quentin (OF) (add H Street?)

    Minn: J Willingham (OF)

    CWS: Alex Rios (OF) (add Jesse Crain)

    SEA: Kyle Seager (3B) but bats lefty, Mike Morse (1B/OF), K Morales (1B/DH) #, J Bay (OF)

    LAA: Bourjos (CF), Trout (CF), Trumbo, A Callaspo # (3B) would cost 2 arms and 2 legs for just 1, and these guys are all part of the Angels' longterm plans.

     

    Some multiple player deals could include:

    Young and C Lee (or Papelbon) from Philly

    A Ramirez and Gallardo from Milw.

    Rios and Crain from CWS

    Headley and Street from SD

     

     



    If i was at McDonalds, i would order the Rios/Crain combo. A RH bat and a reliable closer with special cheese, topped off with lettuce, onions, tomatoes and that wonderful, secret sauce. All on a sesame seed bun.

    What do you think, Moon? Could we get that combo well-done?

     



    It's not going to do much for you.

    Crain has never closed.  He's a setup guy with good stats, and we have 3 guys that are setup guys with good stats.

    Rios is a RH RF.  We already have one of those in Victorino.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from sportsbozo1. Show sportsbozo1's posts

    Re: Trade Proposals

    If I'm using any chip it's Ellsbury he'd bring the most back in return. However as far as pitchers go I would rather they start using the farm and see what shakes out. If Webster pitches well today then maybe if Dumpster can't get his act together you find him a new home back in the NL. If not Webster, next up on the depth chart is Wright and though he's a knuckleball pitcher he has pitched well at AAA. After that would be Workman who has pitched well at both AA and AAA. Once those options have been explored see how they look. If they still need a pitcher then make a move,otherwise stay with what you have.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Trade Proposals

    I am also kind of curious as to why we need a big RH bat.  W/L records are built on how you do against righties, for all the obvious reasons.  I'm not saying you can ignore lefties completely, but I don't know why you'd want to make this a focus.  And all our lefty hitters are pretty good, except for Drew.  You won't be able to replace a left bat right with a righty bat and improve the team.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Trade Proposals

    You can't always worry about the future when you have a good shot at a championship in the present. Do you think Washington is regretting now its handling of Strausburg last year?

    Actually, no. I do not think they regret it one tiny bit.

    Personally, I think they should have planned it out so he had about 30-40 IP leftover after the regular season, but the whole limited IP idea was sound.

     

    I'm not suggesting the Red Sox mortgage everything, but standing pat would be foolish too. They're not that far away from legitimate championship contention.

    I agree, but I would never trade a top 10 prospect this year for a 2 month rental.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Trade Proposals

    If i was at McDonalds, i would order the Rios/Crain combo. A RH bat and a reliable closer with special cheese, topped off with lettuce, onions, tomatoes and that wonderful, secret sauce. All on a sesame seed bun.

    What do you think, Moon? Could we get that combo well-done?

    Those kind of deals are "rare". (LOL)

    Seriously though, the problem with the RH'd bat being an OF'er is that I do not think we'd see Ellsbury be benched vs LHPs, so who do you bench? Gomes and Victorino have trendous numbers vs LHPs over the last 2-5 years.  Carp is defying all the odds. Nava can sit vs LHPs, but there really isn't much room in the OF, unless we trade or cut Gomes. We really need the RH'd bat at 3B.

    Sox4ever

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Trade Proposals

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

    I am also kind of curious as to why we need a big RH bat.  W/L records are built on how you do against righties, for all the obvious reasons.  

    We do play about 35% of our games vs LH'd starters.

    Our current splits are:

    vs RHP: .280/.354/.468/.822

    vs LHP: .246/.327/.391/.718

    Are you okay with those splits?

    If we can improve on those numbers without lowering the numbers vs RHPs (see below), it seems like a good idea to try.

     

    I'm not saying you can ignore lefties completely, but I don't know why you'd want to make this a focus.  And all our lefty hitters are pretty good, except for Drew.  You won't be able to replace a left bat right with a righty bat and improve the team.

    Ideally, we'd get a big RH'd bat that can hit RHPs better than who he replaces, but kills LHPs. 

     

    As I pointed out, our OF has pretty good splits vs LHPs and RHPs, and Ellsbury is not going to be benched vs LHPs.

    OF splits:

    vs LHPs

    Carp    .779 (only 16 PAs: not a real OF option vs LHPs)

    Gomes .713 (but is one of the best over the last 3-5 years)

    Vict      .694 (but is one of the best over the last 3-5 years)

    Nava    .675 (should sit vs LHPs)

    Ellsb    .633  (will not be benched vs LHPs)

    vs RHPs:

    Carp  1.112

    Nava   .882

    Ellsb    .803

    Vict     .768

    Gomes .659 (should never start vs RHPs)

     

    Here's the Alex Rios splits of 2012-2013 combined:

    vs LHPs: .853

    vs RHPs: .834

     

    On the surface, it looks like Rios would be a huge upgrade for our OF- more so vs LHPs, but also vs RHPs as well, but unless we move Ellsbury (maybe involving a 3rd team to get a SP or prospects that we flip to the CWS for Rios and Crain), I don't see this happening:

    LF: Nava/Gomes (Carp)

    CF: Victorino (JBJ?)

    RF: Rios (Nava)

     

    A better boost would come from a 3Bman. The upgrade over Drew (Iggy to SS) and Middlebrooks could be much greater, but with Bogaerts in the wings and Cecchini on the rise, it might be only a 2 month rental type move (or a player under control just through 2014).

    Sox splits:

    vs LHPs:

    Iggy  1.261

    Midd    .675

    Drew   .598

    vs RHPs:

    Iggy  .955

    Drew .729

    Midd  .591

     

    These numbers are much more easily improved upon:

    3B 2012-2013  OPS

                     vs RHPs  LHPs

    A Ramirez  .843   .958 (way better vs LHPs and RHPs)

    M Young   .812     .663 (still better than Drew vs LHPs and close to Midd)

    C Headley  .854   .753 (better vs LHPs and way better vs RHPs)

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Trade Proposals

    Fascinating discussion with varying levels of expertise, some of it very good.  But also I think borderline irrelevant. 

    This is so far a terrific year, but still a transitional one, so giving away some of that really great minor league talent on the outside chance of getting to the WS is foolish.  Going after Lee and Papelbon is a perfect example. 

     

     

     

     
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  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Trade Proposals

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    Fascinating discussion with varying levels of expertise, some of it very good.  But also I think borderline irrelevant. 

    This is so far a terrific year, but still a transitional one, so giving away some of that really great minor league talent on the outside chance of getting to the WS is foolish.  Going after Lee and Papelbon is a perfect example.  



    Agreed about Papelbon. Lee is a little different.  He might have 5 good years left in him.  If you could get him on a reasonable deal you'd have to consider it.  But the Phillies would be asking for a large haul, so it seems pretty unlikely.

     
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  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Trade Proposals

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    You can't always worry about the future when you have a good shot at a championship in the present. Do you think Washington is regretting now its handling of Strausburg last year?

    Actually, no. I do not think they regret it one tiny bit.

    Personally, I think they should have planned it out so he had about 30-40 IP leftover after the regular season, but the whole limited IP idea was sound.

     

    I'm not suggesting the Red Sox mortgage everything, but standing pat would be foolish too. They're not that far away from legitimate championship contention.

    I agree, but I would never trade a top 10 prospect this year for a 2 month rental.

     

    Sox4ever



    I'd be curious how they think it would've made a difference.  Detwiler took his place on the roster and allowed -0- ERs.  Is Strasburg so good that he'll allow less than -0- ERs?

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Trade Proposals

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    You can't always worry about the future when you have a good shot at a championship in the present. Do you think Washington is regretting now its handling of Strausburg last year?

    Actually, no. I do not think they regret it one tiny bit.

    Personally, I think they should have planned it out so he had about 30-40 IP leftover after the regular season, but the whole limited IP idea was sound.

     

    I'm not suggesting the Red Sox mortgage everything, but standing pat would be foolish too. They're not that far away from legitimate championship contention.

    I agree, but I would never trade a top 10 prospect this year for a 2 month rental.

     

    Sox4ever

     



    I'd be curious how they think it would've made a difference.  Detwiler took his place on the roster and allowed -0- ERs.  Is Strasburg so good that he'll allow less than -0- ERs?

     



    Great point.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: Trade Proposals


    Cherington should send Bailey back to Oakland with a note that says, "%$#@ YOU BILLY BEANE!!!"    LOL

     

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Trade Proposals

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:


    Cherington should send Bailey back to Oakland with a note that says, "%$#@ YOU BILLY BEANE!!!"    LOL

     

     



    Billy might be saying the same about Reddick.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Trade Proposals

    Top WAR Starting Pitchers from 2012-2013 combined that could possibly be available this deadline or winter:

    5) Cliff Lee

    11) Shields

    15) Kuroda 

    16) Peavy

    19) Price

     

    Sox4ever

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Trade Proposals

    I am generally opposed to trading top young prospects for veterans. There may be cases here and there when you might do it , but as a rule , it is a bad idea.  One thing to watch for though:  Many of these prospects have their names mentioned on here so often that we tend to think they are can't miss future stars.  It does not always work out like that.  It is not easy , even for an experienced scout, to predict how a prospect will produce in MLB. Look at Iglesias. He is surprising everyone with his hitting.   Right now , Bogaerts is struggling to adjust to AAA. Bradley is doing okay, but not exactly tearing it up. Lavarnway and Brentz have been nothing special. Cecchini is off slowly in AA.  Vasquez is not hitting.  Barnes has yet to have success above A ball. Marrero and Vinicio have been mediocre at best. We have seen Webster fail miserably twice in a row in MLB. Guys like Trout and Machado are rare.  Baseball is tough. Not like football and basketball , where it is relatively easy to evaluate ability.  So , just because we hear names mentioned frequently, it is far from a sure thing that they will succeed in MLB.  It is very easy to fall for the hype and overrate our kids. We need to be realistic and we need to be patient.

    Stabbed by Foulke.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Trade Proposals

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    I am generally opposed to trading top young prospects for veterans. There may be cases here and there when you might do it , but as a rule , it is a bad idea.  One thing to watch for though:  Many of these prospects have their names mentioned on here so often that we tend to think they are can't miss future stars.  It does not always work out like that.  It is not easy , even for an experienced scout, to predict how a prospect will produce in MLB. Look at Iglesias. He is surprising everyone with his hitting.   Right now , Bogaerts is struggling to adjust to AAA. Bradley is doing okay, but not exactly tearing it up. Lavarnway and Brentz have been nothing special. Cecchini is off slowly in AA.  Vasquez is not hitting.  Barnes has yet to have success above A ball. Marrero and Vinicio have been mediocre at best. We have seen Webster fail miserably twice in a row in MLB. Guys like Trout and Machado are rare.  Baseball is tough. Not like football and basketball , where it is relatively easy to evaluate ability.  So , just because we hear names mentioned frequently, it is far from a sure thing that they will succeed in MLB.  It is very easy to fall for the hype and overrate our kids. We need to be realistic and we need to be patient.

    Stabbed by Foulke.



    Well said. I'm sure Ben feels more strongly about some of his prospects than others. He probably has them ranked a lot differently than soxprospects.com. Other Gms may want prospects that Ben is not that high on. Ben also has to look at the Rule 5 situation, and next year's 40 man roster crunch. He may have to to project how many Free Agents he may sign next winter in order to determine what players he may have to leave unprotected. Those players may be dealt this deadline and seen, to Ben, as no loss. He may also trade a prospect that he sees as close in value as a player he may have to leave unprotected to rule 5, and if another team over-values that guy, he may make that deal.

    I really do not think Ben is looking to trade any of his top prospects this deadline. I think they learned from their mistakes in the past, but you never know what might come along. I'm hoping Ben is not going to trade any high-valued prospects for a 2 month rental, but I could see him making a deal for player under team control beyond 2013 and hopefully through 2015 as well. Maybe he'd be a salary dump type player or a player on a team with a rising younger player in their system at the same position.

    We never know what a GM is really thinking. Maybe we see him trade a #3 prospect and say "whoa!", but that GM may think that prospect was more like a #15 in the system. No big deal.

    I trust Ben. He hasn't done anything too rash so far, and the Dodger trade still looks great to me. When's the last time a Sox GM made a deal like that?

     
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