Trade Youk...

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from concord27. Show concord27's posts

    Re: Trade Youk...

    Youk's best days are behind him this is a fact. We are stuck with yet another injury prone older player who is not at his best position.  The comment that we let Victor and Beltre become less likely options speaks to the fraud that Theo was.  It was not that complicated after the debacle with moving Ellsbury to left how was it not clear that keeping players at there real positions like Beltre at third gave way to Youk going back to third after years at first.  Stupidity.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from ajnitschke88. Show ajnitschke88's posts

    Re: Trade Youk...

    Yea lets trade youk while his value is down...just like last year when we should have traded ellsbury right? All of you even thinking youk should be traded, are the same people that will be saying to trade for him at the all star break next year when he has monster numbers
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from ajnitschke88. Show ajnitschke88's posts

    Re: Trade Youk...

    In Response to Re: Trade Youk...:
    I think that Youk, Buch packaged with 2 good ( Like Reddick , Anderson) prospects & a could be good prospect may get us Kemp. I think that Youk , Anderson & Bowden could get us Either. We a outfielder who can hit & either one can hit.  Lers say we trade Youk , Buch, Anderson , Reddick & a prospect for Kemp. Our OF would be Kemp, Ells & Crawford. Let Ortiz walk & pay prince 5 / 125 to DH & Play first when Agon gets a day off. can't a fan dream. I love Kemp & Prince ( Prince for 5 years) & hope that one will wear a sax uniform next year.
    Posted by looneyman


    I dont think trading any starting pitcher would be in our best interest right now, were already going to be without wake,lackey, and dice-k
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Trade Youk...

    In Response to Re: Trade Youk...:
    Youk's best days are behind him this is a fact. We are stuck with yet another injury prone older player who is not at his best position.  The comment that we let Victor and Beltre become less likely options speaks to the fraud that Theo was.  It was not that complicated after the debacle with moving Ellsbury to left how was it not clear that keeping players at there real positions like Beltre at third gave way to Youk going back to third after years at first.  Stupidity.
    Posted by concord27


    Beltre is older than Youkilis, in case you were wondering.  In fact, so is Martinez.  Odd that you call out the youngest player in the post as the "older" player.

    Beltre is also averaging about only 10 more games per year than Youkuilis over the last 3 seasons.

    But apparently the grass is always greener....
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Re: Trade Youk...

    Almost everyone here liked Beltre.  His defense is great and he hits with some power.  Not a great OBP guy, but is clutch.

    However, almost everyone here also preferred AGon over Beltre.  That is the comparison.  It was never Beltre or Youk.  It was and still is AGon vs. Beltre.  Yes, the infield defense got somewhat worse, but the offense got better.  AGon is younger, plays more games, has more power and OBP and plays GG defense.  And for one year, at least, he was a whole lot cheaper.  The fact that Youk is under contract only through 2012 with an option for 2013 gives the Sox a whole lot of flexibility they would not otherwise have, if they had somehow managed to trade Youk and ended up with AGon AND Beltre.

    Hopefully by the end of 2012, Middlebrooks will make us all forget Beltre.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Trade Youk...

    If I had to make a prediction, I will say the Sox sign Michhael Cuddyer this off-season, but not to play RF as many fans seem to want.  The dude is an awful outfielder.

    I think the Sox sign him to split time between 3B and DH with Youkilis.  He'll be replacing Papi in the linuep, and whereas Papi was only a poor fielding 1B, Cuddyer will instead come with the ability to be a poor fielder at many more positions.

    I doubt the Sox just limit Youkilis to strict DH duty with the occasion 1B/3B games.  And I doubt Youkilis would be very happy in that role.  So in this respect, Cuddyer is the perfect fit for Boston among the FA crowd.

    Plus, those who fear Youkilis is getting too old, Cuddyer is much younger.  Almost 2 full weeks...
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Trade Youk...

    In Response to Re: Trade Youk...:
    In Response to Re: Trade Youk... : Beltre is older than Youkilis, in case you were wondering.  In fact, so is Martinez.  Odd that you call out the youngest player in the post as the "older" player. Beltre is also averaging about only 10 more games per year than Youkuilis over the last 3 seasons. But apparently the grass is always greener....
    Posted by notin

    To be precise, Kevin Youkilis (DOB 3-15-79) is 22 days older than Adrian Beltre (DOB 4-7-79).
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Trade Youk...

    In Response to Re: Trade Youk...:
    In Response to Re: Trade Youk... : To be precise, Kevin Youkilis (DOB 3-15-79) is 22 days older than Adrian Beltre (DOB 4-7-79).
    Posted by hill55


    To be fair to me, Beltre's birthday hasn't always been listed in 1979.

    But the bottom line is to call Youkilis an aging older player for being 32 and playing in 358 games in the last 3 years, and then consider 32yo Adrian Beltre the younger healther option when he has only player 389 games in the same stretch does smack of considering the grass greener elsewhere.  Especially since their production in that timeframe is pretty equal.  Youkilis has the higher OPS.  Beltre has 5 more HRs and 22 more RBI.  Not much over 3 years....
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Re: Trade Youk...

    Interesting idea, notin.  I'll have to chew on that one awhile.

    Cuddyer for the DH/3B tandem with Youk does give the lineup more balance, and might make 3 lefties in the OF a moot point.  And I am not big on the idea that Cuddyer be signed for RF.  He is a platoon at best for that spot because of his fielding.  But a DH who can play several positions in a pinch is a good idea.  Ortiz's defensive limitations have long hurt the Sox.  If Cuddyer can be brought in for 2 years for cheaper than Ortiz, then I think he would be a much better option.  Is Cuddyer a type B or type A?  That also plays into the decision, I would think.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Trade Youk...

    In Response to Re: Trade Youk...:
    In Response to Re: Trade Youk... : To be fair to me, Beltre's birthday hasn't always been listed in 1979. But the bottom line is to call Youkilis an aging older player for being 32 and playing in 358 games in the last 3 years, and then consider 32yo Adrian Beltre the younger healther option when he has only player 389 games in the same stretch does smack of considering the grass greener elsewhere.  Especially since their production in that timeframe is pretty equal.  Youkilis has the higher OPS.  Beltre has 5 more HRs and 22 more RBI.  Not much over 3 years....
    Posted by notin

    MLB investigated Adrian Beltre's birthday and suspended the Dodgers' Dominican scouting operations after concluding that the Dodgers had signed Beltre at age 15. The Dodgers would have fought the sanction if they had any doubt about Beltre's birthday.  

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/gallery/featured/GAL1144459/6/12/index.htm
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Trade Youk...

    It also depends on whether or not Twins offer arbitration.

    Cuddyer made $10.5 mill last year, and probably stands to make more short term by accepting.  The Twins might not want to risk paying him in the $12mill range, even for one year.

    I'm not sure what his ranking is or where he stands on Type A/Type B.  The Sox might not mind parting with one pick, since they would be gaining 2 picks if Papelbon leaves, and potentially 2 more depending on the Ortiz situation.  
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Trade Youk...

    In Response to Re: Trade Youk...:
    In Response to Re: Trade Youk... : To be fair to me, Beltre's birthday hasn't always been listed in 1979. But the bottom line is to call Youkilis an aging older player for being 32 and playing in 358 games in the last 3 years, and then consider 32yo Adrian Beltre the younger healther option when he has only player 389 games in the same stretch does smack of considering the grass greener elsewhere.  Especially since their production in that timeframe is pretty equal.  Youkilis has the higher OPS.  Beltre has 5 more HRs and 22 more RBI.  Not much over 3 years....
    Posted by notin

    Over the past three seasons, Kevin Youkilis has been valued at 13.7 WAR*, including 7.8 WAR the past two seasons.

    Over the past three seasons, Adrian Beltre has been valued at 15.4 WAR, including 12.7 WAR the past two seasons.
     
    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs:
    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1935&position=1B/3B
    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=639&position=3B
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Trade Youk...

    In Response to Re: Trade Youk...:
    In Response to Re: Trade Youk... : MLB investigated Adrian Beltre's birthday and suspended the Dodgers' Dominican scouting operations after concluding that the Dodgers had signed Beltre at age 15. The Dodgers would have fought the sanction if they had any doubt about Beltre's birthday.   http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/gallery/featured/GAL1144459/6/12/index.htm
    Posted by hill55


    But even early into his MLB career, his birthday was actually listed as 1978.  It wasn't until agent Scott Boras magically discovered this flaw and tried to make Beltre a free agent that it all came to light.

    Regardles, the point is the guy is about the same age as Youkilis and plays about as often, yet fans consdier him to be the younger, healthier option.  Had we kept Beltre and let Youkilis walk, they would be saying the same thing about Youkilis - why did we let that dirtdog Youk go and keep this old, injury-prone player in Adrian Beltre.

    My point is there is just no pleasing some people...
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxu571. Show redsoxu571's posts

    Re: Trade Youk...

    To the guy who started this post, you're an idiot, plain and simple. To call Youkilis a "5 to 7 hitter" is beyond stupid. Here is what he did in the three seasons before his injury saddled year:

    '08: .312/.390/.569, 6th in AL in OBP, 3rd in SLG, 4th in Adjusted OPS+
    '09: .305/.413/.548, 2nd in AL in OBP, 5th in SLG, 3rd in Adjusted OPS+
    '10: .307/.411/.564, 2nd in AL in OBP, 5th in SLG, 5th in Adjusted OPS+ (he's technically not listed on the leaderboards in '10 due to a incomplete season, but that's where he would have placed in almost 2/3 of a season)

    NOBODY has been better than Youkilis on an annual basis at getting on base and avoiding outs, which is the basis of the Red Sox offense. He and Miguel Cabrera were the only hitters who consistently did well in all the above categories on an annual basis those three years. Anyone with a brain wants to get such a hitter as many at bats as possible. It's also worth noting that Youkilis typically sees a bit of a boost at home, but nothing major (and was better on the road in 2010...Fenway is still a hitter's park, but not one that gives everyone a big advantage).


    As for Beltre, I have no desire to disparage him, as I like him as a player and loved his year with the Sox, but up through last offseason he was nowhere near Youkilis's class. It's hard to place him as a hitter due to the fact that he's played in pitcher's parks for most of his career, but in the last couple of years he's shown to be a solid contact guy, mediocre OBP, and good slugging guy with an excellent glove at 3B. He can be streaky, and it's very important to note that everyone KNEW that his 2010 numbers were one of his two career seasons and would never be replicated.

    Last year, he lost 27 points in BA, 34 points in OBP, and saw an 8 point rise in SLG. HOWEVER, look at these splits:
    2011 Home: .326/.372/.706!
    2011 Away: .271/.297!/.440
    Those road numbers are actually worse than Beltre's career averages...given the expected reasonable but not huge boost a home park should provide, Beltre basically had a career average year, but it was masked by his ballpark. New flash: Texas's ballpark is the clear #1 hitter's park in the entire AL. It's not even close. It provides massives boosts to its hitters.


    As an OBP and OPS machine, Youkilis is an ideal #3 batter, who is absolitely perfect at the #5 spot for a championship level team (given that the #5 spot is the second most important OBP spot in the lineup after the leadoff spot, but still merits good power ability too). If Youkilis bats any lower than #5 in a lineup, it's only because it's the All Star Game and there are too many awesome options.

    Adrian Beltre, given his streakiness and lack of OBP skills, should never bat higher than #6 in a lineup, unless it's for a weak team.

    Given that, going into the offseason, Beltre and Youkilis had similar recent injury histories, and given that Beltre was certain to command a sizeable contract (far larger and longer than Youkilis's), Beltre's fielding advantage did not make up for his clear deficiencies when compared to Youkilis. Given that idiot posters such as you spent all of last offseason mocking Theo Epstein for attempting to build the 2010 team around defense, keeping Youkilis is exactly what you wanted. Revisionist fools.

    P.S. The two first round picks the Sox got for Beltre didn't hurt either.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Re: Trade Youk...

    notin,

    I looked it up.  As of August, Cuddyer was listed by Elias as a Type B.  So he would cost the Sox no pick.  Minny has a two-year 16 million offer out there on him, so they probably do NOT want to go to arbitration, where he might get upwards of $12 million for 2012. 

    The more I think on it, the more I like your idea.  Sign Cuddyer to be in the DH tandem, let Papi go.  Get your 2 draft picks for Ortiz, spend roughly the same amount of money, and get some defensive flexibility out of the DH spot (which has been lacking since 2003).
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxu571. Show redsoxu571's posts

    Re: Trade Youk...

    In Response to Re: Trade Youk...:
    In Response to Re: Trade Youk... : Over the past three seasons, Kevin Youkilis has been valued at 13.7 WAR*, including 7.8 WAR the past two seasons. Over the past three seasons, Adrian Beltre has been valued at 15.4 WAR, including 12.7 WAR the past two seasons.   * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1935&position=1B/3B http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=639&position=3B
    Posted by hill55


    Note: WAR is a counting stat...the more you play, the more you get (if you're any good). Youkilis missed more than a third of 2010 and played only a portion of 2011 at anywhere near reasonable health. Beltre played almost every game in 2010, and though he missed time in 2011, he was fairly healthy and when he did play. He'd better have a higher WAR than Youkilis.

    From the same pages you referenced:
    Youkilis's WAR in 2008-2010 was 15.9. Beltre's was 13.5. See what I mean? Playing time has an impact.

    Bigger note: WAR relies heavily on fielding metrics, which are an inexact science. Youkilis was given a negative positional value until this year, given that it's virutally impossible to gain a positive positional value at 1B. Positional value is quite a subjective determination.

    Since 2008, Youkilis's batting "values" (which is much more exact) have been 35.4, 37.9, 31.7, and 17.8 (injured), respectively.

    Since 2008, Beltre's values have been 6.9, -7.2 (injured), 31.8, and 23.1, respectively. In career years, Beltre sniffs Youkilis as a hitter, but only barely. Beltre has also had a negative hitting value in six of his seasons. That's nice.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Trade Youk...

    Sooo, Adrian Beltre is not walking through the clubhouse door anytime soon.  Can we please remove him from discussing whether or not to move Youk?  

    I think the last 2 years of injury (the first of which was just a freak accident) are really blinding some of you to Youk's value.  This season, before the midsummer break down, Youk, not even at his best, was still having a pretty kick-azz year.  Driving in runs, getting on base.  You know, doing what Youk does.  You may not be a die-hard money-baller, but it would be foolish to underestimate what a grinder of Youk's calibre brings to a line-up.  If he is healthy, Youk is a must.  It is no accident that the mighty Sox offense began to sputter a bit and Adrian Gonzalez' power numbers fell off in the second half.  It is because Youk was not in the middle of that order.  Much much easier for a pitcher to navigate the line-up sans Youk.

    Now, his health, of course, is an issue.  A gamble.  I recognize that.  His injuries this past year were injuries of attrition.  Definite warning bells.  His health going forward is a gamble.  But one there is no choice in taking, as, certainly no other clubs are going to take that gamble and give up anything of value at this point.  Packaging him with Reddick/Andersen/whoever for a King Felix or Name-Your-Stud is a pipe dream.  Not happening.

    We are stuck with Youk.  For myself, I am happy to be stuck with him.  I am now on record.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: Trade Youk...

    No doubt. Only with hindsight do we even talk about having moved Youk and re-signing Beltre.  I did not want Youk moved last off-season. Thrilled to have AGon.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Alibiike. Show Alibiike's posts

    Re: Trade Youk...

    In Response to Re: Trade Youk...:
    In Response to Re: Trade Youk... : I agree susan, at the time Youk was one of/if not our best OBP guy with solid production which he can hopefully regain this season.  I think we should give Middlebrooks a full year at AAA and see if he has what it takes.  Sign Papi for a couple years then move Youk to DH if he is still producing.
    Posted by craze4sox


    Clena-up hitters drive runs in, not drive up their OBP. The only reason for the high OBP is the walks, certainly not the average this year.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Alibiike. Show Alibiike's posts

    Re: Trade Youk...

    In Response to Re: Trade Youk...:
    In Response to Re: Trade Youk... : Beltre is older than Youkilis, in case you were wondering.  In fact, so is Martinez.  Odd that you call out the youngest player in the post as the "older" player. Beltre is also averaging about only 10 more games per year than Youkuilis over the last 3 seasons. But apparently the grass is always greener....
    Posted by notin


    Anyone who can hit 32 HRs and drive in over 100 in 124 games, I'll take any day.
    Plus, Beltre puts the ball in play, something Youk is not very good at. But it's all moot, that ship has sailed.
    Youkilis is a sick-bay commando, as we used to say in the service. He needs to go elsewhere.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Trade Youk...

    In Response to Re: Trade Youk...:
    In Response to Re: Trade Youk... : Note: WAR is a counting stat...the more you play, the more you get (if you're any good). Youkilis missed more than a third of 2010 and played only a portion of 2011 at anywhere near reasonable health. Beltre played almost every game in 2010, and though he missed time in 2011, he was fairly healthy and when he did play. He'd better have a higher WAR than Youkilis. From the same pages you referenced: Youkilis's WAR in 2008-2010 was 15.9. Beltre's was 13.5. See what I mean? Playing time has an impact. Bigger note: WAR relies heavily on fielding metrics, which are an inexact science. Youkilis was given a negative positional value until this year, given that it's virutally impossible to gain a positive positional value at 1B. Positional value is quite a subjective determination. Since 2008, Youkilis's batting "values" (which is much more exact) have been 35.4, 37.9, 31.7, and 17.8 (injured), respectively. Since 2008, Beltre's values have been 6.9, -7.2 (injured), 31.8, and 23.1, respectively. In career years, Beltre sniffs Youkilis as a hitter, but only barely. Beltre has also had a negative hitting value in six of his seasons. That's nice.
    Posted by redsoxu571

    That's the whole point ... a player is not helping a team if he's not playing.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Trade Youk...

    I wouldn't call WAR a counting stat, since it is possible to go negative.   If you look at true counting stats, they never go negative.  One you get a hit, RBI, error, strikeout, whatever, it is yours to keep.

    I would say WAR trends positively with playing time...

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Trade Youk...

    In Response to Re: Trade Youk...:
    We are stuck with Youk.  For myself, I am happy to be stuck with him.  I am now on record.
    Posted by SpacemanEephus

    I agree that the Red Sox should be happy to be stuck with Kevin Youkilis, who could be a valuable designated hitter for the balance of his Red Sox contract. The Sox should take the likely draft picks if David Ortiz tests the free agent market, then find a short-term solution at third base* while watching the development of Will Middlebrooks or another prospect.

    * A Casey Blake-type player might work
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Trade Youk...

    In Response to Re: Trade Youk...:
    In Response to Re: Trade Youk... : I agree that the Red Sox should be happy to be stuck with Kevin Youkilis, who could be a valuable designated hitter for the balance of his Red Sox contract. The Sox should take the likely draft picks if David Ortiz tests the free agent market, then find a short-term solution at third base* while watching the development of Will Middlebrooks or another prospect. * A Casey Blake-type player might work
    Posted by hill55


    I can get down with that Hill.  I would also be ok with finding a short-term DH, if there happens to be a better hitting option than Casey Blake out there (Ortiz?), and give Youk another season at 3rd (hopefully with Middlebrooks spelling him in the 2nd Half and letting him DH a bit, though I don't think Middlebrooks is MLB material next year).  I think Youk will play better 3rd this year assuming health.  But, 2013 on is DH world for the Greek (Albanian) God of Walks.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Trade Youk...

    My choice for a stopgap 3B would be Aaron Hill.

    By my prediction is the Sox sign Michael Cuddyer and keep both him and Youkilis involved at 3B/DH.  I do doubt Youkilis wants to DH just yet...
     
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