Trading Deadline #1 Priority

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Trading Deadline #1 Priority

    In response to seannybboi's comment:

    #1 or 2 starter and the middle of order bat.



    That would be nice, but we ain't getting both of those things.  We likely have to trade the farm for ONE

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Promise4you2. Show Promise4you2's posts

    Re: Trading Deadline #1 Priority

    In response to makonikyman's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    I'm still guessing that by the trade deadline, our two biggest needs will still be:

    1) A solid starting pitcher

    2) A RH'd middle order power hitterI'm not saying these are our weakest links going forward, but here are our worst positional OPS positions so far this year:

    1) 3B  .696

    2) CF  .732

    3) RF  .750

    4) SS  .759 (although this is, I believe, the 4th best SS OPS in MLB)

    5) LF  .781

     

    Sox4ever

     

     

     



    We have 5 solid starters, the worst ERA among our starters is 4.40.  As your numbers imply, we have no material weaknesses, at least right now.

     

     

     

     

     



    I know. The numbers don't show we need a SP, but it almost always happens by the deadline.

     

     

    Our biggest weakness on paper right now looks like 3B and CF, but Ellsbury has heated up, and the emmergence of Iggy as a 3B option has upgraded the outlook there as well. 

    I doubt we try for a RF'er with all that money tied up in Shane, so it does look like a stand pat team at this moment in time. A closer is a possibility, but we should know more about Baily by the end of July.

    Let's hope we stay healthy. Lord knows we had more than our share the last few seasons, so a relatively low injury season would ne nice for once. 

    We still have over 7 weeks to the deadline, so a lot can happen by then. I hope we don't have a SP injury or implosion, but it's hard for me to imagine all 5 keeping this up for 7 more weeks, let alone the rest of the season.

    I'd be tickled pink to end up wrong on this, but to me, you can never have too much pitching. 

     



    Our 2 biggest weaknessEs are  Jon Lester and Andrew Baily. Not F Doubrant...when are you going to admit that? 

     

    Lester is struggling right now- no doubt, but you can try all you want, but I won't make definitive judgements on small sample sizes. 

    I have never understood why so many posters look to such tiny sample sizes to determine who is better than another. As you remember, I cautioned those posters saying Lester was going to win the Cy Young after just 4 starts and 5 earned runs. I'm not going to now judge Lester harshly over 5 bad starts in a row. That's not to say I am not concerned: I am, and that's another reason why I'd love for us to get another solid, durable SP.

    All of my suggestions for getting another quality SP have not involved Doubront. In fact, I'd hardly be talking about Doubront, if posters like yourself didn't keep bringing it up. 

    Before this season began, I was arguing for a top of rotation starter, not because of Doubront's sketchiness, but more because I distrusted the chances that both Lester and Buchholz would stay healthy all year and perform near the top of their ability. I'm not sure if you remember, but I was for trading Lester to KC for Myers, so I'm not just about trading Doubront. One reason for wanting to trade Doubront is that the value you keep talking about, like low cost, long team control, and nasty stuff, is exactly what makes a nice return in value possible. Trading Lester would not net much at this point, anyway. I know you don't agree with my concerns about Doubront's attitude and motivational issues, but it is what it is, and I'm just not so sure why you seem so obsessed with that opinion of mine. I'm not pretending to be a MR. know-it-all, and I've admitted to more mistakes on this site than every poster combined, so can we just move on?

    I'm glad Doubront is doing well. I have never said I thought he would do poorly this year or all year long. He has some great stuff. He had some nice stretches last year where he looked like he could become that 3rd starter we needed, and perhaps someday he will. I'll be happy to eat crow when and if that happens, however, asking me to annoint him our #2 or 3 starter ahead of Lester or even Lackey and Dempster based on a few good games in a row, a BB rate higher than last year, and a WHIP over 6 just isn't going to happen soon enough for your liking.

    Bailey is struggling now, and I would not argue that the closer position is not a weak link on this team right now. He has had some rough outtings, but his 1.08 WHIP is a good sign considering he missed time with an injury and had to rehab on the fly.

    I'd love to get a quality closer, but they don't come cheap, and I'm not for trading away top prospects for a closer. If Bailey keeps having a hard time, my mind might change. The next 7 weeks should shake a lot of things out and lengthen some sample sizes to a point where some decisions may have to be made.

    Yes, Lester's struggles have gone beyong this 5 game sample size. He struggled at the end of 2011 and through most of 2012 as well. You may be right: he may be our weakest SP link right now and going forward. However to be defending Doubront, who has an ERA 0.70 more than Lester and a WHIP about 0.350 more than Lester is a bit of a stretch. I'm hoping Lester turns it around, just as I am hoping Doubront pitches to his potential.

     

     

    Sox4ever

     



    You never seize to amaze me. In your first paragraph, you use the "small sample size" of his last 5 starts, then...in your last paragraph you  acknowledge the "larger sample size" from 2011 to present in regards to Lester. Which one is it? You go back and forth on every topic with various stats and differing opinions that when a player or team for that matter does ANYTHING you can't help but be right. You're the master of SPIN...at least you think you are. Here's a spin on sample sizes...let's remove Lester's 6-0 start to this yr when you and the rest were touting him for ACE status, because EVERYONE knows that pitchers are WAY ahead of hitters the first month of the season, right? If we do that...Jon Lester is an astounding 10 - 20 with an era well north of 5. Even with his 6-0 start he is only 16-20 with an era slightly under 5. That is a large sample size covering close to 50 starts. Jon Lester is a 4/5 guy and has been for awhile now. Those are the facts. 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    John Lester

    Age 29

    Starts 207

    Wins 91

    Losses 51

    Era 3.79

    Whip 1.31

     

    While he may not be an ace, he is much better (on a Large) sample size then you are giving him credit for. He is also in the top ten winners in MLB for the last 5 years, imagine that?

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Trading Deadline #1 Priority

    In response to djcbuffum's comment:

    (1) This is a team with the second best record in baseball. We don't have any needs for the 2013 regular season, except to fortify depth in case one player or another goes down with injury, or some of the struggling players can't snap out of their funk.

    (2) Jon Lester will pick it up a bit as the season goes on, but if he ends the season with an ERA north of 4.00, the FO can't go into 2014 thinking of him as a co-ace. By the end of this season, there will be a clear drop from his best years, and any reason to hope he can get it together will be outweighed by the lengthy period of time that he hasn't. Given that Bucholz' is prone to injury, it really will be time for the Sox to bring in the big game pitcher that they've been lacking ever since Beckett tanked, Schilling retired, and Lester lost his mojo. Maybe it's Webster, maybe it's Cliff Lee, maybe it's someone else. 

    And if Lester can't pick it up, I will also be worried about our ability to last a seven game series with Texas and/or Detroit. It might be worth exploring a way to strengthen our rotation at the trade deadline, just looking ahead to a post-season berth. That's problematic, of course, because who do you demote? You don't want a six-month rental who is going to push out any of the guys who have a long-term future with the Sox. The FO will have a delicate balance to make. 


    "Who would have guessed it possible that waiting is sustainable, a place with its own harvests -- or that in time's fullness the diamonds of patience couldn't be distinguished from genuine brilliance or hardness." --Kay Ryan.

    "Everything is happening, all the time, very fast. I like that." -- Warren Ellis



    while I generally agree with your statement and applaud you for not freaking out like everyone else there is one thing I would like to critique. 

    Jon Lester is not an Ace.

    Any argument that jon Lester is an ace starts with how good he has BEEN or how good he CAN be.  But there are a lot of #3 #4 #5 starters in the league who have ace stuff (if we talk about pure stuff).  One thing that makes an ace an ace is consistency.  Yes even an ace has a bad start here and there but that is usually a start or two during the year.  Jon Lester while good at times has been largely inconsistent the last 2 years going back to the end of 2011.  

    On his best night, he is as good as anyone out there but he is just way to inconsistant and has been for a while now to even be considered in the conversation as an ace. 

    So actually I pretty much agree with you, lol. 

    If you've noticed the last several years the Red Sox have drafted a LOT of pitchers; their drafts have been particularly top heavy in pitching with the top 10 picks.  Not to mention they have traded for RDLR and Webster.  I wonder if this plays into the general failure of the team to sign pitchers in free agency.  FWIW the general trend has been bad in signing big time pitchers in free agency.  I think the Sox are looking to build a pitching staff from within.

    The good news here is the Sox have one of the most stacked minor league systems they have had in a while with a LOT of pitching depth.  The bad news is while a lot of that talent is CLOSE to the bigs, it's not certain that they can come up and contribute right now.

    Webster may be a very good #2 but he might be that guy who struggles for a while before he puts it together.  Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens, all very close but not quite there yet.  Rubby De La Rosa seems like he has really put it together and turned it on and might be able to contribute right now.  But he is still recovering from tommy john and will likely be shut down later this summer.

    Best case scenario is Doubront continues his upward trend, Lakey bounces back and pitches as good as he has, and Buccholz is fine (I think he is 100% fine and the team is just babying him, but that is just a guess) and Lester at least sprinkles in some good starts here and there or maybe even heats up for a month. 

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Who has what we need?

    Here's my question: Who is or will likely be out of the running soon, and has something we want?

    I'm not that worried about whether we have a piece of direct interest to them, because GMs have a way of working multi-way deals that we can only imagine.

    If not an Ace, we need a quality arm from somewhere, because if Lester goes off the rails and Buck gets injured it's all over for us. Even without injury, no one cane expect Buck to keep pitching at this same level of effectiveness. He would still have a good season if he only pitched .500 going forward.

    It's unreasonable to think that any of the arms we have downstairs could step up and fill this need for us.

    Maybe we can live without a top ace, but we need another arm that can outperform the bottom of our current rotation.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from makonikyman. Show makonikyman's posts

    Re: Trading Deadline #1 Priority

    In response to Promise4you2's comment:

    In response to makonikyman's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    I'm still guessing that by the trade deadline, our two biggest needs will still be:

    1) A solid starting pitcher

    2) A RH'd middle order power hitterI'm not saying these are our weakest links going forward, but here are our worst positional OPS positions so far this year:

    1) 3B  .696

    2) CF  .732

    3) RF  .750

    4) SS  .759 (although this is, I believe, the 4th best SS OPS in MLB)

    5) LF  .781

     

    Sox4ever

     

     

     



    We have 5 solid starters, the worst ERA among our starters is 4.40.  As your numbers imply, we have no material weaknesses, at least right now.

     

     

     

     

     



    I know. The numbers don't show we need a SP, but it almost always happens by the deadline.

     

     

    Our biggest weakness on paper right now looks like 3B and CF, but Ellsbury has heated up, and the emmergence of Iggy as a 3B option has upgraded the outlook there as well. 

    I doubt we try for a RF'er with all that money tied up in Shane, so it does look like a stand pat team at this moment in time. A closer is a possibility, but we should know more about Baily by the end of July.

    Let's hope we stay healthy. Lord knows we had more than our share the last few seasons, so a relatively low injury season would ne nice for once. 

    We still have over 7 weeks to the deadline, so a lot can happen by then. I hope we don't have a SP injury or implosion, but it's hard for me to imagine all 5 keeping this up for 7 more weeks, let alone the rest of the season.

    I'd be tickled pink to end up wrong on this, but to me, you can never have too much pitching. 

     



    Our 2 biggest weaknessEs are  Jon Lester and Andrew Baily. Not F Doubrant...when are you going to admit that? 

     

    Lester is struggling right now- no doubt, but you can try all you want, but I won't make definitive judgements on small sample sizes. 

    I have never understood why so many posters look to such tiny sample sizes to determine who is better than another. As you remember, I cautioned those posters saying Lester was going to win the Cy Young after just 4 starts and 5 earned runs. I'm not going to now judge Lester harshly over 5 bad starts in a row. That's not to say I am not concerned: I am, and that's another reason why I'd love for us to get another solid, durable SP.

    All of my suggestions for getting another quality SP have not involved Doubront. In fact, I'd hardly be talking about Doubront, if posters like yourself didn't keep bringing it up. 

    Before this season began, I was arguing for a top of rotation starter, not because of Doubront's sketchiness, but more because I distrusted the chances that both Lester and Buchholz would stay healthy all year and perform near the top of their ability. I'm not sure if you remember, but I was for trading Lester to KC for Myers, so I'm not just about trading Doubront. One reason for wanting to trade Doubront is that the value you keep talking about, like low cost, long team control, and nasty stuff, is exactly what makes a nice return in value possible. Trading Lester would not net much at this point, anyway. I know you don't agree with my concerns about Doubront's attitude and motivational issues, but it is what it is, and I'm just not so sure why you seem so obsessed with that opinion of mine. I'm not pretending to be a MR. know-it-all, and I've admitted to more mistakes on this site than every poster combined, so can we just move on?

    I'm glad Doubront is doing well. I have never said I thought he would do poorly this year or all year long. He has some great stuff. He had some nice stretches last year where he looked like he could become that 3rd starter we needed, and perhaps someday he will. I'll be happy to eat crow when and if that happens, however, asking me to annoint him our #2 or 3 starter ahead of Lester or even Lackey and Dempster based on a few good games in a row, a BB rate higher than last year, and a WHIP over 6 just isn't going to happen soon enough for your liking.

    Bailey is struggling now, and I would not argue that the closer position is not a weak link on this team right now. He has had some rough outtings, but his 1.08 WHIP is a good sign considering he missed time with an injury and had to rehab on the fly.

    I'd love to get a quality closer, but they don't come cheap, and I'm not for trading away top prospects for a closer. If Bailey keeps having a hard time, my mind might change. The next 7 weeks should shake a lot of things out and lengthen some sample sizes to a point where some decisions may have to be made.

    Yes, Lester's struggles have gone beyong this 5 game sample size. He struggled at the end of 2011 and through most of 2012 as well. You may be right: he may be our weakest SP link right now and going forward. However to be defending Doubront, who has an ERA 0.70 more than Lester and a WHIP about 0.350 more than Lester is a bit of a stretch. I'm hoping Lester turns it around, just as I am hoping Doubront pitches to his potential.

     

     

    Sox4ever

     

     



    You never seize to amaze me. In your first paragraph, you use the "small sample size" of his last 5 starts, then...in your last paragraph you  acknowledge the "larger sample size" from 2011 to present in regards to Lester. Which one is it? You go back and forth on every topic with various stats and differing opinions that when a player or team for that matter does ANYTHING you can't help but be right. You're the master of SPIN...at least you think you are. Here's a spin on sample sizes...let's remove Lester's 6-0 start to this yr when you and the rest were touting him for ACE status, because EVERYONE knows that pitchers are WAY ahead of hitters the first month of the season, right? If we do that...Jon Lester is an astounding 10 - 20 with an era well north of 5. Even with his 6-0 start he is only 16-20 with an era slightly under 5. That is a large sample size covering close to 50 starts. Jon Lester is a 4/5 guy and has been for awhile now. Those are the facts. 

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    John Lester

     

    Age 29

    Starts 207

    Wins 91

    Losses 51

    Era 3.79

    Whip 1.31

     

    While he may not be an ace, he is much better (on a Large) sample size then you are giving him credit for. He is also in the top ten winners in MLB for the last 5 years, imagine that?

    [/QUOTE]

    John Lackey was ONCE an ACE....what is now? As we're many other pitchers 4 or 5 yrs ago. NOW....and the future projection is what you should be looking at, not the past. Jon Lester is 16-20 with an era near 5.00 over the last 2 yrs. that is the reality....and the fact that he has lost the ability to blow it by batters and get away with a mistake or two should be of concern. He has been a work horse for many yrs and Needs to learn how to PITCH...not THROW. Some pitchers can do it (make the proper adjustments) and some can't and become 500 pitchers.....time will tell with 

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Trading Deadline #1 Priority

    You never seize to amaze me. In your first paragraph, you use the "small sample size" of his last 5 starts, then...in your last paragraph you  acknowledge the "larger sample size" from 2011 to present in regards to Lester. Which one is it?

    Both. That's why I see the big picture, and you see only the selected picture that supports your position. You choose the recent 5 game sample size to bash Lester. Where were you after his first 5-6 starts this year? Why didn't those starts signal he was a great pitcher? The sample size was as large as his most recent one.

    Why don't you use the 2013 season sample size to compare Lester and Doubront? We know why.

     

    You go back and forth on every topic with various stats and differing opinions that when a player or team for that matter does ANYTHING you can't help but be right. You're the master of SPIN...at least you think you are.

    The fact is there are no absolutes in baseball, and there is always a lot of back and forth.

    You wrongfully believe that just because I want to trade a certain player, I am devaluing him or hate him. That is totally false. 

     

    Here's a spin on sample sizes...let's remove Lester's 6-0 start to this yr when you and the rest were touting him for ACE status, because EVERYONE knows that pitchers are WAY ahead of hitters the first month of the season, right?

    Stop the BS. I never touted anyone as an ace after a 6 game sample size. You are constructing strawmen and calling them me.

    If we do that...Jon Lester is an astounding 10 - 20 with an era well north of 5. Even with his 6-0 start he is only 16-20 with an era slightly under 5. That is a large sample size covering close to 50 starts. Jon Lester is a 4/5 guy and has been for awhile now. Those are the facts. 

    Yes, they are facts that are real and significant, but they are also selected time frames of your choosing. How about I take out Doubronts best 6 starts from 2012 to today and show you his numbers. It wouldn't be pretty, would it, in fact, keep all the starts, and his WHIP is shockingly awful. Ignore it- go ahead. A picther who has a WHIP of about 1.500 is not pitching well. Those are the facts that you want to ignore, because you think Doubront is the second coming or something.

    Lester has a long history of being at near ace skill. He lost some velocity as I mentiuoned this past winter. His contract is rather high. I wanted to trade him last winter, and was highly ridiculed for even suggesting it. I wanted to use the money saved to sign younger FAs like B McCarthey or A Sanchez. I'm not saying we'd be in 1st place had we traded Lester for Myers and signed B McCarthey, but stop pretending I have been putting Lester at an ace level. 

    He does still have the ability to regain what he once had, and I wouldn't say he has any worse chance than Doubront to be productive over the next 4 months based on his last 5 starts or recent 1.5 year sample size. If I had to bet, I'd bet Doubront does better over the next 4 months, but it's not a sure bet.

    Trading Lester now would net us next to nothing. I accept that. I'm not ignoring his last 1 .5 seasons. It has been terrible. There is no spin to cover it up, and I am not trying to cover up anything.

    Sox4ever

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from proftom2. Show proftom2's posts

    Re: Trading Deadline #1 Priority

    Drama, the trading dealine is all about drama this year. Ells will be a hot topic becasue of his agent. Looks like Salty will be the same. will the sox pull a Noma type trade? I am thinking yes. The nationwill be shocked. 

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from jozee76. Show jozee76's posts

    Re: Trading Deadline #1 Priority

    In response to Promise4you2's comment:

    In response to makonikyman's comment:

     

    I'm still guessing that by the trade deadline, our two biggest needs will still be:

    1) A solid starting pitcher

    2) A RH'd middle order power hitterI'm not saying these are our weakest links going forward, but here are our worst positional OPS positions so far this year:

    1) 3B  .696

    2) CF  .732

    3) RF  .750

    4) SS  .759 (although this is, I believe, the 4th best SS OPS in MLB)

    5) LF  .781

     

    Sox4ever

     

     

     



    We have 5 solid starters, the worst ERA among our starters is 4.40.  As your numbers imply, we have no material weaknesses, at least right now.

     

     

     

     

     



    I know. The numbers don't show we need a SP, but it almost always happens by the deadline.

     

     

    Our biggest weakness on paper right now looks like 3B and CF, but Ellsbury has heated up, and the emmergence of Iggy as a 3B option has upgraded the outlook there as well. 

    I doubt we try for a RF'er with all that money tied up in Shane, so it does look like a stand pat team at this moment in time. A closer is a possibility, but we should know more about Baily by the end of July.

    Let's hope we stay healthy. Lord knows we had more than our share the last few seasons, so a relatively low injury season would ne nice for once. 

    We still have over 7 weeks to the deadline, so a lot can happen by then. I hope we don't have a SP injury or implosion, but it's hard for me to imagine all 5 keeping this up for 7 more weeks, let alone the rest of the season.

    I'd be tickled pink to end up wrong on this, but to me, you can never have too much pitching. 

     



    Our 2 biggest weaknessEs are  Jon Lester and Andrew Baily. Not F Doubrant...when are you going to admit that? 

     

    Lester is struggling right now- no doubt, but you can try all you want, but I won't make definitive judgements on small sample sizes. 

    I have never understood why so many posters look to such tiny sample sizes to determine who is better than another. As you remember, I cautioned those posters saying Lester was going to win the Cy Young after just 4 starts and 5 earned runs. I'm not going to now judge Lester harshly over 5 bad starts in a row. That's not to say I am not concerned: I am, and that's another reason why I'd love for us to get another solid, durable SP.

    All of my suggestions for getting another quality SP have not involved Doubront. In fact, I'd hardly be talking about Doubront, if posters like yourself didn't keep bringing it up. 

    Before this season began, I was arguing for a top of rotation starter, not because of Doubront's sketchiness, but more because I distrusted the chances that both Lester and Buchholz would stay healthy all year and perform near the top of their ability. I'm not sure if you remember, but I was for trading Lester to KC for Myers, so I'm not just about trading Doubront. One reason for wanting to trade Doubront is that the value you keep talking about, like low cost, long team control, and nasty stuff, is exactly what makes a nice return in value possible. Trading Lester would not net much at this point, anyway. I know you don't agree with my concerns about Doubront's attitude and motivational issues, but it is what it is, and I'm just not so sure why you seem so obsessed with that opinion of mine. I'm not pretending to be a MR. know-it-all, and I've admitted to more mistakes on this site than every poster combined, so can we just move on?

    I'm glad Doubront is doing well. I have never said I thought he would do poorly this year or all year long. He has some great stuff. He had some nice stretches last year where he looked like he could become that 3rd starter we needed, and perhaps someday he will. I'll be happy to eat crow when and if that happens, however, asking me to annoint him our #2 or 3 starter ahead of Lester or even Lackey and Dempster based on a few good games in a row, a BB rate higher than last year, and a WHIP over 6 just isn't going to happen soon enough for your liking.

    Bailey is struggling now, and I would not argue that the closer position is not a weak link on this team right now. He has had some rough outtings, but his 1.08 WHIP is a good sign considering he missed time with an injury and had to rehab on the fly.

    I'd love to get a quality closer, but they don't come cheap, and I'm not for trading away top prospects for a closer. If Bailey keeps having a hard time, my mind might change. The next 7 weeks should shake a lot of things out and lengthen some sample sizes to a point where some decisions may have to be made.

    Yes, Lester's struggles have gone beyong this 5 game sample size. He struggled at the end of 2011 and through most of 2012 as well. You may be right: he may be our weakest SP link right now and going forward. However to be defending Doubront, who has an ERA 0.70 more than Lester and a WHIP about 0.350 more than Lester is a bit of a stretch. I'm hoping Lester turns it around, just as I am hoping Doubront pitches to his potential.

     

     

    Sox4ever

     

     



    You never seize to amaze me. In your first paragraph, you use the "small sample size" of his last 5 starts, then...in your last paragraph you  acknowledge the "larger sample size" from 2011 to present in regards to Lester. Which one is it? You go back and forth on every topic with various stats and differing opinions that when a player or team for that matter does ANYTHING you can't help but be right. You're the master of SPIN...at least you think you are. Here's a spin on sample sizes...let's remove Lester's 6-0 start to this yr when you and the rest were touting him for ACE status, because EVERYONE knows that pitchers are WAY ahead of hitters the first month of the season, right? If we do that...Jon Lester is an astounding 10 - 20 with an era well north of 5. Even with his 6-0 start he is only 16-20 with an era slightly under 5. That is a large sample size covering close to 50 starts. Jon Lester is a 4/5 guy and has been for awhile now. Those are the facts. 

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    John Lester

     

    Age 29

    Starts 207

    Wins 91

    Losses 51

    Era 3.79

    Whip 1.31

     

    While he may not be an ace, he is much better (on a Large) sample size then you are giving him credit for. He is also in the top ten winners in MLB for the last 5 years, imagine that?

    [/QUOTE]

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

    That tells you just how BAD Major League Pitching is my friend!

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Trading Deadline #1 Priority

    Jesse Crain is a much more likely target...


    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it." - Agent K

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxdawg08. Show soxdawg08's posts

    Re: Trading Deadline #1 Priority

    #3 SP and solid middle reliever are key to solving pitching shortcomings.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: Trading Deadline #1 Priority

    How many Save Ops has Bailey really had this year anyway? They haven't really needed A closer as much this year as far as I can remember. Ok I looked:

    Team SVOp: 19

    Team Saves: 11

    58%

    Bailey SvOp: 8

    Bailey Saves: 6

    75%

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: Trading Deadline #1 Priority

    In response to jozee76's comment:

    In response to Promise4you2's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to makonikyman's comment:

     

    I'm still guessing that by the trade deadline, our two biggest needs will still be:

    1) A solid starting pitcher

    2) A RH'd middle order power hitterI'm not saying these are our weakest links going forward, but here are our worst positional OPS positions so far this year:

    1) 3B  .696

    2) CF  .732

    3) RF  .750

    4) SS  .759 (although this is, I believe, the 4th best SS OPS in MLB)

    5) LF  .781

     

    Sox4ever

     

     

     



    We have 5 solid starters, the worst ERA among our starters is 4.40.  As your numbers imply, we have no material weaknesses, at least right now.

     

     

     

     

     



    I know. The numbers don't show we need a SP, but it almost always happens by the deadline.

     

     

    Our biggest weakness on paper right now looks like 3B and CF, but Ellsbury has heated up, and the emmergence of Iggy as a 3B option has upgraded the outlook there as well. 

    I doubt we try for a RF'er with all that money tied up in Shane, so it does look like a stand pat team at this moment in time. A closer is a possibility, but we should know more about Baily by the end of July.

    Let's hope we stay healthy. Lord knows we had more than our share the last few seasons, so a relatively low injury season would ne nice for once. 

    We still have over 7 weeks to the deadline, so a lot can happen by then. I hope we don't have a SP injury or implosion, but it's hard for me to imagine all 5 keeping this up for 7 more weeks, let alone the rest of the season.

    I'd be tickled pink to end up wrong on this, but to me, you can never have too much pitching. 

     



    Our 2 biggest weaknessEs are  Jon Lester and Andrew Baily. Not F Doubrant...when are you going to admit that? 

     

    Lester is struggling right now- no doubt, but you can try all you want, but I won't make definitive judgements on small sample sizes. 

    I have never understood why so many posters look to such tiny sample sizes to determine who is better than another. As you remember, I cautioned those posters saying Lester was going to win the Cy Young after just 4 starts and 5 earned runs. I'm not going to now judge Lester harshly over 5 bad starts in a row. That's not to say I am not concerned: I am, and that's another reason why I'd love for us to get another solid, durable SP.

    All of my suggestions for getting another quality SP have not involved Doubront. In fact, I'd hardly be talking about Doubront, if posters like yourself didn't keep bringing it up. 

    Before this season began, I was arguing for a top of rotation starter, not because of Doubront's sketchiness, but more because I distrusted the chances that both Lester and Buchholz would stay healthy all year and perform near the top of their ability. I'm not sure if you remember, but I was for trading Lester to KC for Myers, so I'm not just about trading Doubront. One reason for wanting to trade Doubront is that the value you keep talking about, like low cost, long team control, and nasty stuff, is exactly what makes a nice return in value possible. Trading Lester would not net much at this point, anyway. I know you don't agree with my concerns about Doubront's attitude and motivational issues, but it is what it is, and I'm just not so sure why you seem so obsessed with that opinion of mine. I'm not pretending to be a MR. know-it-all, and I've admitted to more mistakes on this site than every poster combined, so can we just move on?

    I'm glad Doubront is doing well. I have never said I thought he would do poorly this year or all year long. He has some great stuff. He had some nice stretches last year where he looked like he could become that 3rd starter we needed, and perhaps someday he will. I'll be happy to eat crow when and if that happens, however, asking me to annoint him our #2 or 3 starter ahead of Lester or even Lackey and Dempster based on a few good games in a row, a BB rate higher than last year, and a WHIP over 6 just isn't going to happen soon enough for your liking.

    Bailey is struggling now, and I would not argue that the closer position is not a weak link on this team right now. He has had some rough outtings, but his 1.08 WHIP is a good sign considering he missed time with an injury and had to rehab on the fly.

    I'd love to get a quality closer, but they don't come cheap, and I'm not for trading away top prospects for a closer. If Bailey keeps having a hard time, my mind might change. The next 7 weeks should shake a lot of things out and lengthen some sample sizes to a point where some decisions may have to be made.

    Yes, Lester's struggles have gone beyong this 5 game sample size. He struggled at the end of 2011 and through most of 2012 as well. You may be right: he may be our weakest SP link right now and going forward. However to be defending Doubront, who has an ERA 0.70 more than Lester and a WHIP about 0.350 more than Lester is a bit of a stretch. I'm hoping Lester turns it around, just as I am hoping Doubront pitches to his potential.

     

     

    Sox4ever

     

     

     



    You never seize to amaze me. In your first paragraph, you use the "small sample size" of his last 5 starts, then...in your last paragraph you  acknowledge the "larger sample size" from 2011 to present in regards to Lester. Which one is it? You go back and forth on every topic with various stats and differing opinions that when a player or team for that matter does ANYTHING you can't help but be right. You're the master of SPIN...at least you think you are. Here's a spin on sample sizes...let's remove Lester's 6-0 start to this yr when you and the rest were touting him for ACE status, because EVERYONE knows that pitchers are WAY ahead of hitters the first month of the season, right? If we do that...Jon Lester is an astounding 10 - 20 with an era well north of 5. Even with his 6-0 start he is only 16-20 with an era slightly under 5. That is a large sample size covering close to 50 starts. Jon Lester is a 4/5 guy and has been for awhile now. Those are the facts. 

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    John Lester

     

    Age 29

    Starts 207

    Wins 91

    Losses 51

    Era 3.79

    Whip 1.31

     

    While he may not be an ace, he is much better (on a Large) sample size then you are giving him credit for. He is also in the top ten winners in MLB for the last 5 years, imagine that?

    [/QUOTE]

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

    That tells you just how BAD Major League Pitching is my friend!

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Lester usually slumps a month. It just usually happens earlier in the year. 

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: Trading Deadline #1 Priority

    trade priority #1=do not trade any of the young players in the minor leagues. even for Paplbon...dont touch a single player in the minors...Doubrant for Pap is fine. Iggy for Pap is fine. Let thie young guys mature as a group and start the next RS run...could go 10 years with so much young talent. Dont go for a quick fix for Pap...

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Trading Deadline #1 Priority

    In response to rkarp's comment:

    trade priority #1=do not trade any of the young players in the minor leagues. even for Paplbon...dont touch a single player in the minors...Doubrant for Pap is fine. Iggy for Pap is fine. Let thie young guys mature as a group and start the next RS run...could go 10 years with so much young talent. Dont go for a quick fix for Pap...



    Iggy for Pap?

    Yagottabekidding.

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Trading Deadline #1 Priority

    we needed a top of the rotation guy last year, this past hot stove, and now...nothing has changed...do we have enough spare parts/prospects we are willing to let go to make it happen? 

    As always - 100% correct!

     
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from sportsbozo1. Show sportsbozo1's posts

    Re: Trading Deadline #1 Priority

    I don't have any names in mind, but if John Lester doesn't start following through on his delivery a starting pitcher is going to be needed ASAP! Webster, and whichever young starter may be getting a call up if no experienced starter can be found. How about trading for Bud Norris? As for a secondary move trading Drew would be a wonderful idea! Iggy isn't going anywheres and soon Bogaerts will be on his way, time to clear the decks.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: Trading Deadline #1 Priority

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to rkarp's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    trade priority #1=do not trade any of the young players in the minor leagues. even for Paplbon...dont touch a single player in the minors...Doubrant for Pap is fine. Iggy for Pap is fine. Let thie young guys mature as a group and start the next RS run...could go 10 years with so much young talent. Dont go for a quick fix for Pap...

     



    Iggy for Pap?

     

    Yagottabekidding.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I kid not. If the Phillies are looking to cut salary, and if they are out of contention do they need a closer? Trading Pap relieves approx $35 million in salary, and they get their starting SS for the next 10 years. Simple decision...Phils eat Pap's $$$ and they get prospects....Phils dont eat Pap's $$$ and they get middlin prospects

    I always loved Iggy's glove...saw him A LOT in Pawtucket and feel his current offense is simple SSS....I do believe Bogarts will be a ML SS and I like Marrero more than Iggy anyways

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: Trading Deadline #1 Priority

    Everyone can argue all day, but Jon Lester is paid to and is slotted to be the #1 or #2 starter on this team, period. Felix Doubront is not.

    If they continue to get the type of garbage Jon Lester had been giving the team, then we need a starter and a closer.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: Trading Deadline #1 Priority

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    You never seize to amaze me. In your first paragraph, you use the "small sample size" of his last 5 starts, then...in your last paragraph you  acknowledge the "larger sample size" from 2011 to present in regards to Lester. Which one is it?

    Both. That's why I see the big picture, and you see only the selected picture that supports your position. You choose the recent 5 game sample size to bash Lester. Where were you after his first 5-6 starts this year? Why didn't those starts signal he was a great pitcher? The sample size was as large as his most recent one.

    Why don't you use the 2013 season sample size to compare Lester and Doubront? We know why.

     

    You go back and forth on every topic with various stats and differing opinions that when a player or team for that matter does ANYTHING you can't help but be right. You're the master of SPIN...at least you think you are.

    The fact is there are no absolutes in baseball, and there is always a lot of back and forth.

    You wrongfully believe that just because I want to trade a certain player, I am devaluing him or hate him. That is totally false. 

     

    Here's a spin on sample sizes...let's remove Lester's 6-0 start to this yr when you and the rest were touting him for ACE status, because EVERYONE knows that pitchers are WAY ahead of hitters the first month of the season, right?

    Stop the BS. I never touted anyone as an ace after a 6 game sample size. You are constructing strawmen and calling them me.

    If we do that...Jon Lester is an astounding 10 - 20 with an era well north of 5. Even with his 6-0 start he is only 16-20 with an era slightly under 5. That is a large sample size covering close to 50 starts. Jon Lester is a 4/5 guy and has been for awhile now. Those are the facts. 

    Yes, they are facts that are real and significant, but they are also selected time frames of your choosing. How about I take out Doubronts best 6 starts from 2012 to today and show you his numbers. It wouldn't be pretty, would it, in fact, keep all the starts, and his WHIP is shockingly awful. Ignore it- go ahead. A picther who has a WHIP of about 1.500 is not pitching well. Those are the facts that you want to ignore, because you think Doubront is the second coming or something.

    Lester has a long history of being at near ace skill. He lost some velocity as I mentiuoned this past winter. His contract is rather high. I wanted to trade him last winter, and was highly ridiculed for even suggesting it. I wanted to use the money saved to sign younger FAs like B McCarthey or A Sanchez. I'm not saying we'd be in 1st place had we traded Lester for Myers and signed B McCarthey, but stop pretending I have been putting Lester at an ace level. 

    He does still have the ability to regain what he once had, and I wouldn't say he has any worse chance than Doubront to be productive over the next 4 months based on his last 5 starts or recent 1.5 year sample size. If I had to bet, I'd bet Doubront does better over the next 4 months, but it's not a sure bet.

    Trading Lester now would net us next to nothing. I accept that. I'm not ignoring his last 1 .5 seasons. It has been terrible. There is no spin to cover it up, and I am not trying to cover up anything.

    Sox4ever




    "at near ace skill" means nothing. He's not performing like one and results are what counts.

    No comparison to Doubront. Doubront is the #5. Lester should be #1/2.

    what are you basing your statement on regarding regaining what he once had? Just like your posts about Wakefield regaining what he did in 2008 and 2009 in 2011?

    He is a weak link at the top of the rotation. 4 2/3 IP with 8 hits, 7 runs and 7 BB is inexcusable.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: Trading Deadline #1 Priority

    In response to soxdawg08's comment:

    #3 SP and solid middle reliever are key to solving pitching shortcomings.




    Sox don't need a #3. They need a top of the rotation starter and closer. Who's your closer? Bailey has never saved over 30 games. He's been unreliable his entire career.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThefourBs. Show ThefourBs's posts

    Re: Trading Deadline #1 Priority

    In response to ADG's comment:

    In response to soxdawg08's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    #3 SP and solid middle reliever are key to solving pitching shortcomings.

     




    Sox don't need a #3. They need a top of the rotation starter and closer. Who's your closer? Bailey has never saved over 30 games. He's been unreliable his entire career.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    And you're trading for both of those?

    Good luck...

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Trading Deadline #1 Priority

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:

    In response to ADG's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to soxdawg08's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    #3 SP and solid middle reliever are key to solving pitching shortcomings.

     

     




    Sox don't need a #3. They need a top of the rotation starter and closer. Who's your closer? Bailey has never saved over 30 games. He's been unreliable his entire career.

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    And you're trading for both of those?

     

    Good luck...

    [/QUOTE]

    DIdn't you know? you just go to ACE (the helpful place) and pick up any ace you want. 

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThefourBs. Show ThefourBs's posts

    Re: Trading Deadline #1 Priority

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:

    [QUOTE]




    Sox don't need a #3. They need a top of the rotation starter and closer. Who's your closer? Bailey has never saved over 30 games. He's been unreliable his entire career.

     

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    And you're trading for both of those?

     

     

    Good luck...

     

    [/QUOTE]

    DIdn't you know? you just go to ACE (the helpful place) and pick up any ace you want. 

     

    [/QUOTE]


    LOL!

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Trading Deadline #1 Priority

    Papelbon?  so far Red sox have messed up mostly in 4th inning toward to 7th or 8th innings this year. 

    I do think they need another starter who can try to go deep in ball game.  Lester is starting to worry me.  Dont think it is a mechanical problem nor mental.  Think he could be having a health problem such as maybe his leukeimia is coming back.  He just looked tire every time he goes to ward to 4th to 6th innings!!

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: Trading Deadline #1 Priority

    In response to djcbuffum's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    In response to djcbuffum's comment:

     

     

     

    (1) This is a team with the second best record in baseball. We don't have any needs for the 2013 regular season, except to fortify depth in case one player or another goes down with injury, or some of the struggling players can't snap out of their funk.

    (2) Jon Lester will pick it up a bit as the season goes on, but if he ends the season with an ERA north of 4.00, the FO can't go into 2014 thinking of him as a co-ace. By the end of this season, there will be a clear drop from his best years, and any reason to hope he can get it together will be outweighed by the lengthy period of time that he hasn't. Given that Bucholz' is prone to injury, it really will be time for the Sox to bring in the big game pitcher that they've been lacking ever since Beckett tanked, Schilling retired, and Lester lost his mojo. Maybe it's Webster, maybe it's Cliff Lee, maybe it's someone else. 

    And if Lester can't pick it up, I will also be worried about our ability to last a seven game series with Texas and/or Detroit. It might be worth exploring a way to strengthen our rotation at the trade deadline, just looking ahead to a post-season berth. That's problematic, of course, because who do you demote? You don't want a six-month rental who is going to push out any of the guys who have a long-term future with the Sox. The FO will have a delicate balance to make. 


    "Who would have guessed it possible that waiting is sustainable, a place with its own harvests -- or that in time's fullness the diamonds of patience couldn't be distinguished from genuine brilliance or hardness." --Kay Ryan.

    "Everything is happening, all the time, very fast. I like that." -- Warren Ellis

     

     



    while I generally agree with your statement and applaud you for not freaking out like everyone else there is one thing I would like to critique. 

     

     

    Jon Lester is not an Ace.

    Any argument that jon Lester is an ace starts with how good he has BEEN or how good he CAN be.  But there are a lot of #3 #4 #5 starters in the league who have ace stuff (if we talk about pure stuff).  One thing that makes an ace an ace is consistency.  Yes even an ace has a bad start here and there but that is usually a start or two during the year.  Jon Lester while good at times has been largely inconsistent the last 2 years going back to the end of 2011.  

    On his best night, he is as good as anyone out there but he is just way to inconsistant and has been for a while now to even be considered in the conversation as an ace. 

    So actually I pretty much agree with you, lol. 

    If you've noticed the last several years the Red Sox have drafted a LOT of pitchers; their drafts have been particularly top heavy in pitching with the top 10 picks.  Not to mention they have traded for RDLR and Webster.  I wonder if this plays into the general failure of the team to sign pitchers in free agency.  FWIW the general trend has been bad in signing big time pitchers in free agency.  I think the Sox are looking to build a pitching staff from within.

    The good news here is the Sox have one of the most stacked minor league systems they have had in a while with a LOT of pitching depth.  The bad news is while a lot of that talent is CLOSE to the bigs, it's not certain that they can come up and contribute right now.

    Webster may be a very good #2 but he might be that guy who struggles for a while before he puts it together.  Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens, all very close but not quite there yet.  Rubby De La Rosa seems like he has really put it together and turned it on and might be able to contribute right now.  But he is still recovering from tommy john and will likely be shut down later this summer.

    Best case scenario is Doubront continues his upward trend, Lakey bounces back and pitches as good as he has, and Buccholz is fine (I think he is 100% fine and the team is just babying him, but that is just a guess) and Lester at least sprinkles in some good starts here and there or maybe even heats up for a month. 

     



    I think we are saying the same thing. The FO went into 2013 talking about Lester-Bucholz as "co-aces." It was a bit of a stretch to think of either as an "ace" then, and it's pretty ridiculous to talk about Lester as an "ace" now (jury is still out on Bucholz).

     



    is CC an ACE?

     
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