Trading, with an eye to the future

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from thirtysomething. Show thirtysomething's posts

    Trading, with an eye to the future

    One of the essential principles in business or baseball is that you don't rob Peter to pay Paul (unless Peter's back is turned?). Whatever the Red Sox do at the trade deadline, and in the off-season, they should avoid creating new problems that will need to be addressed a year or two later. So based on the current roster, what might the team look like in 2014?

    Players under contract or not yet FA-eligible:
    SP: Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Miller
    RP: Bard, Aceves, Morales
    OF: Crawford
    IF: Gonzalez, Pedroia
    C: Salty

    Advanced prospects who might reasonably start 2014 in the majors (boldface for those I have the most confidence in):
    SP: Ranaudo
    RP: Doubront, Weiland, Wilson
    OF: Reddick, Kalish, Hassan
    IF: Navarro, Middlebrooks, Iglesias
    C/DH: Lavarnway, Federowicz

    Conclusions:
    • They seem to have enough pitching to meet most of their needs going forward. Trading Doubront or Weiland could make sense in the right deal, as long as the Sox aren't getting Wily Mo Pena in return.
    • For 2012, we have one opening in the outfield and three advanced prospects with which to plug it. Trading Kalish to fill a short-term need could make sense, if you have confidence in Reddick's ability to step into the job for the longer term. Hassan, as a RHH, might fit in a bench role, though I question his range in Fenway's RF.
    • Middlebrooks and Iglesias both ought to be untouchable, at least if you believe they will develop into quality players. Shortstop and third base are two of the hardest positions to fill through free agency or trade.
    • Lavarnway is showing tremendous offensive potential at Pawtucket, but defensively does not seem to be a fit as a starting catcher. One of the key decisions the Red Sox need to make is whether to make room for him at DH or use him as a trading chip (while resigning Ortiz). Note that Hassan would also be a reasonable fit as a DH in a few years, if he continues to progress.
    • The other key decisions in the coming years will be to extend, trade, or replace Papelbon at closer and Ellsbury in center field. There should be enough money available, if management believes in each going forward.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Trading, with an eye to the future

    excellent post Thirty.  I think too often we play out trade scenarios in our head without an eye to the future.  When we do look ahead to the future we look ahead to next year, which realistically is not enough.  If the duration of most of the contracts we are dishing out are at least 3-4 years old then looking ahead past 2012 makes sense. 

    In terms of the present, I think whether or not Papelbon gets resigned may be a testament to how management feels a lot of these youngsters can step up and fill in; I'd say the same for Ellsbury but the FO still has a few years to evaluate the minor leaguer outfielders.  

    a Poster brought up a good point in another thread that us fans tend to fell in love with homegrown talent before they have proven anything.  Which I do believe we do at times, however there is a tactical advantage to homegrown talent.  They are CHEAP, and under team control for years. 

    I think it would be very interesting to spend a few weeks in the Sox F.O. and see how these front office guys look ahead to the future. 
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Trading, with an eye to the future

    Has a big half-season at Double A lifted 22-year-old Will Middlebrooks to "untouchable" status after prospect analyst John Sickels graded him at C+ in December and Baseball America in November omitted him from the Red Sox Top 10 prospect list?

    Middlebrooks appears headed in the right direction, although he failed to make Baseball America's midseason Top 50 prospect list.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Re: Trading, with an eye to the future

    I think both of you have made excellent posts.  Meanwhile a thread about Teixeira not being an all-star gets much more attention.  Go figure.  True Sox fans with an interest in the team beyond what they did last game should take thritysomething's ideas to heart.

    I do feel that Papelbon stays only if he values himself below Mariano Rivera money, considerably below.  And I base that on the belief that the front office values closers, along with any other reliever, as too risky to throw too much money or too many years at them.  That means maybe 5 - 7 million dollar range for the top guys, and 2 years, maybe three on contract length. 

    As for the OF picture, I could see Ellsbury being traded in the off-season if it brought the Sox a RHH OFer who has more years of control, and probably more power.  Ellsbury is proving very valuable.  But that means he will cost more in arbitration, and bring more in trade value.  So unless Ellsbury agrees to an extension, I see him gone by 2014.  But he might bring in a RHH OFer who IS still around in 2014.

    I also believe that the starting pitching picture, which, it has been pointed out, is quite secure, long-term, is why Theo has stated that he is more likely to bring in a bat than a starter as we close in on the July trade deadline.  Trading good prospects for a rent-a-pitcher does not make sense to me, or to them IMO.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Trading, with an eye to the future

    Could always call up Arizona and see if they're still willing to trade Justin Upton.  I'm thinking 3 team deal with Ells going to the 3rd team to send a top prospect (starting pitcher) to Arizona and we could supplement the trade from our system, one of Kalish/Reddick/Hassan/Brentz and one of Iggy/Navarro/Middlebrooks.  This is off the cuff, so not sure about the fit, but we'd keep an OF for RF next year (either Reddick or Kalish) and we'd keep a SS (Iggy or Navy) or if they took Middlebrooks, Navy shifts to 3B.  Arizona wanted an AGon like package last offseason.  This is awfully similar depending on the SP.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxforlife22. Show soxforlife22's posts

    Re: Trading, with an eye to the future

    The starting pitching situation in the future is why the garza rumors make no sense to me. Garza is locked up through 2013. In 2013 we will have six starting pitchers in the majors barring injuries. Lester, buchholz, beckett, Lackey, Miller, and Ranaudo. Obviously, one of these would have to be traded, in the bullpen, or in the minors, but that still leaves no room for Garza.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Re: Trading, with an eye to the future

    You make sense to me, JB-3.  I am not one who is sold on Iggy enough to make him untouchable, but do recognize that losing Navy and Iggy would be potentially disasterous, as the Sox have had very little luck in solving their SS woes externally.  So trading one or the other, but not both makes sense.  And Upton for Ells is the kind of upgrade that I could endorse.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Trading, with an eye to the future

    In Response to Re: Trading, with an eye to the future:
    The starting pitching situation in the future is why the garza rumors make no sense to me. Garza is locked up through 2013. In 2013 we will have six starting pitchers in the majors barring injuries. Lester, buchholz, beckett, Lackey, Miller, and Ranaudo. Obviously, one of these would have to be traded, in the bullpen, or in the minors, but that still leaves no room for Garza.
    Posted by soxforlife22


    I can't see Ranaudo starting 2013 in the majors.  Certainly a candidate for a mid season call up though.  Anyway, I agree that the Garza rumors don't make sense, just for a different reason.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Trading, with an eye to the future

    In Response to Re: Trading, with an eye to the future:
    You make sense to me, JB-3.  I am not one who is sold on Iggy enough to make him untouchable, but do recognize that losing Navy and Iggy would be potentially disasterous, as the Sox have had very little luck in solving their SS woes externally.  So trading one or the other, but not both makes sense.  And Upton for Ells is the kind of upgrade that I could endorse.
    Posted by parhunter1

    I just remembered that they have Stephen Drew at SS, but it turns out he's only locked up through 2012 with a mutual option (read buy out) for 2013.  So that give Iggy time for more seasoning at AAA in their system.  It works out nicer than I thought.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from thirtysomething. Show thirtysomething's posts

    Re: Trading, with an eye to the future

    In Response to Re: Trading, with an eye to the future:
    Has a big half-season at Double A lifted 22-year-old Will Middlebrooks to "untouchable" status after prospect analyst John Sickels graded him at C+ in December and Baseball America in November omitted him from the Red Sox Top 10 prospect list? Middlebrooks appears headed in the right direction, although he failed to make Baseball America's midseason Top 50 prospect list.
    Posted by hill55


    I see him as "untouchable" because the Red Sox have a projected need (Youkilis won't last too many more years at 3B), there is a reasonable possibility that he will fill the need, and there are no good internal alternatives within the timeframe in question. I'm not suggesting that he is a "sure thing", by any stretch of the imagination, simply that his value to the Red Sox exceeds his value to another team.

    Middlebrooks ought to be on the Top 10 lists next year, and might break the BA Top 100. Successfully jumping a level while adding 40 points of batting average does a lot to resurrect a player's reputation! He is still two big steps from Boston, however.


     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from fourrings. Show fourrings's posts

    Re: Trading, with an eye to the future

    i have no interest in trading felix doubront, the Masterson deal is starting to look like a bad one now lets not make another. A talented young lefty isnt easy to come by, keep him
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from thirtysomething. Show thirtysomething's posts

    Re: Trading, with an eye to the future

    "That means maybe 5 - 7 million dollar range for the top guys, and 2 years, maybe three on contract length."

    If that were the value the Red Sox placed on Papelbon, wouldn't they have traded him two years ago when his arb price tag hit $9M?

    Going by WPA, as calculated by B-R, Papelbon has averaged 3+ wins per season as a closer. That suggests a value of $12M-$15M per year, at least if you could with confidence project his continued success.

    You won't find a better free agent pitcher available at $21M/3yrs, so if you take that stance you are committing to building the pen through the farm system.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Trading, with an eye to the future

    In Response to Trading, with an eye to the future:
    One of the essential principles in business or baseball is that you don't rob Peter to pay Paul (unless Peter's back is turned?). Whatever the Red Sox do at the trade deadline, and in the off-season, they should avoid creating new problems that will need to be addressed a year or two later. So based on the current roster, what might the team look like in 2014? Players under contract or not yet FA-eligible: SP: Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Miller RP: Bard, Aceves, Morales OF: Crawford IF: Gonzalez, Pedroia C: Salty Advanced prospects who might reasonably start 2014 in the majors (boldface for those I have the most confidence in): SP: Ranaudo RP: Doubront, Weiland, Wilson OF: Reddick , Kalish, Hassan IF: Navarro, Middlebrooks , Iglesias C/DH: Lavarnway , Federowicz Conclusions: They seem to have enough pitching to meet most of their needs going forward. Trading Doubront or Weiland could make sense in the right deal, as long as the Sox aren't getting Wily Mo Pena in return. For 2012, we have one opening in the outfield and three advanced prospects with which to plug it. Trading Kalish to fill a short-term need could make sense, if you have confidence in Reddick's ability to step into the job for the longer term. Hassan, as a RHH, might fit in a bench role, though I question his range in Fenway's RF. Middlebrooks and Iglesias both ought to be untouchable, at least if you believe they will develop into quality players. Shortstop and third base are two of the hardest positions to fill through free agency or trade. Lavarnway is showing tremendous offensive potential at Pawtucket, but defensively does not seem to be a fit as a starting catcher. One of the key decisions the Red Sox need to make is whether to make room for him at DH or use him as a trading chip (while resigning Ortiz). Note that Hassan would also be a reasonable fit as a DH in a few years, if he continues to progress. The other key decisions in the coming years will be to extend, trade, or replace Papelbon at closer and Ellsbury in center field. There should be enough money available, if management believes in each going forward.
    Posted by thirtysomething


    Solid post thirty, but we have a few differences.  I see Doubront along with Kalish or Reddick being dangled as trade bait and possibly packaged at some point with Lowrie.

    My 2014 lineup would look something like this ...

    Ellsbury CF, I don't see Theo messing with success at leadoff.  He gambled once with Damon and it hurt.  If Iglesias can improve offensively to the point of leading off it could change but nobody else can take that role at this point.
    RHH - Pede 2B,
    LHH - Crawford LF
    LHH - Gonzo 1B
    RHH - Youk DH or Lavarnway - Youk could become a trade chip if the kid continues to assault the baseball.
    ????????????
    RF - My wish is still to see Westmoreland recover at some point and according to most sources hes making great strides.  Outside of that I have no idea what Theo's plan may be for the future.
    RHH - Middlebrooks 3B
    SWH - Salty and Fed,
    who is an outstanding defender and beginning to raise his offense.  Theo likes Salty and feels he could have a similar career as Tek.
    RHH- Iglesias SS
    , Hopefully

    SP - Lester, Beckett, Clay, Miller? and Renaudo - Anthony has a good fastball and curveball but will need to develop a "change up" before getting a shot at the bigs.  At 21, I think he has a higher ceiling than Weiland who is now 24.

    I see Lackeys arm giving out before his contract expires.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Trading, with an eye to the future

    In Response to Re: Trading, with an eye to the future:
    In Response to Re: Trading, with an eye to the future : I see him as "untouchable" because the Red Sox have a projected need (Youkilis won't last too many more years at 3B), there is a reasonable possibility that he will fill the need, and there are no good internal alternatives within the timeframe in question. I'm not suggesting that he is a "sure thing", by any stretch of the imagination, simply that his value to the Red Sox exceeds his value to another team. Middlebrooks ought to be on the Top 10 lists next year, and might break the BA Top 100. Successfully jumping a level while adding 40 points of batting average does a lot to resurrect a player's reputation! He is still two big steps from Boston, however.
    Posted by thirtysomething

    Valid point.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from thirtysomething. Show thirtysomething's posts

    Re: Trading, with an eye to the future

    "He gambled once with Damon and it hurt."

    I don't disagree with your take on Ellsbury, however Damon needed a move to LF or DH, both blocked on the Red Sox. This wasn't so much a "gamble" as an "unfortunate necessity".

    If push came to shove, I expect Pedroia could lead off pretty well. I do like your lineup better, though.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from SinceYaz. Show SinceYaz's posts

    Re: Trading, with an eye to the future

    In Response to Trading, with an eye to the future:
    One of the essential principles in business or baseball is that you don't rob Peter to pay Paul (unless Peter's back is turned?). Whatever the Red Sox do at the trade deadline, and in the off-season, they should avoid creating new problems that will need to be addressed a year or two later. So based on the current roster, what might the team look like in 2014? Players under contract or not yet FA-eligible: SP: Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Miller RP: Bard, Aceves, Morales OF: Crawford IF: Gonzalez, Pedroia C: Salty Advanced prospects who might reasonably start 2014 in the majors (boldface for those I have the most confidence in): SP: Ranaudo RP: Doubront, Weiland, Wilson OF: Reddick , Kalish, Hassan IF: Navarro, Middlebrooks , Iglesias C/DH: Lavarnway , Federowicz Conclusions: They seem to have enough pitching to meet most of their needs going forward. Trading Doubront or Weiland could make sense in the right deal, as long as the Sox aren't getting Wily Mo Pena in return. For 2012, we have one opening in the outfield and three advanced prospects with which to plug it. Trading Kalish to fill a short-term need could make sense, if you have confidence in Reddick's ability to step into the job for the longer term. Hassan, as a RHH, might fit in a bench role, though I question his range in Fenway's RF. Middlebrooks and Iglesias both ought to be untouchable, at least if you believe they will develop into quality players. Shortstop and third base are two of the hardest positions to fill through free agency or trade. Lavarnway is showing tremendous offensive potential at Pawtucket, but defensively does not seem to be a fit as a starting catcher. One of the key decisions the Red Sox need to make is whether to make room for him at DH or use him as a trading chip (while resigning Ortiz). Note that Hassan would also be a reasonable fit as a DH in a few years, if he continues to progress. The other key decisions in the coming years will be to extend, trade, or replace Papelbon at closer and Ellsbury in center field. There should be enough money available, if management believes in each going forward.
    Posted by thirtysomething


    Nice post.  Many more layers to your onion than to my everyday thinking impresses me, especially since what you are saying does not have the wild-eyed edge that some trade proposals we read here. 

    I am impressed by those who have a good grasp on prospects.  It seems Middlebrooks came out of nowhere, but that is only because I don't delve as deeply as some.  I like what I'm reading about him and enjoyed a recent interview about him and with him. 

    SS prospects ... certainly entertain our attention.  If Iggy can only find his bat ....


     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Trading, with an eye to the future

    In Response to Re: Trading, with an eye to the future:
    "He gambled once with Damon and it hurt." I don't disagree with your take on Ellsbury, however Damon needed a move to LF or DH, both blocked on the Red Sox. This wasn't so much a "gamble" as an "unfortunate necessity". If push came to shove, I expect Pedroia could lead off pretty well. I do like your lineup better, though.
    Posted by thirtysomething


    Jacoby gets a lot of credit for our teams success this season, as evident by his mates voting for him.  Hopefully we don't mess with it too badly because it hasn't been this productive since Damon left.  I'm not sure how productive Pede would be as lead off but its a possibility.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Trading, with an eye to the future

    In Response to Re: Trading, with an eye to the future:
    In Response to Trading, with an eye to the future : Solid post thirty, but we have a few differences.  I see Doubront along with Kalish or Reddick being dangled as trade bait and possibly packaged at some point with Lowrie. My 2014 lineup would look something like this ... Ellsbury CF , I don't see Theo messing with success at leadoff.  He gambled once with Damon and it hurt.  If Iglesias can improve offensively to the point of leading off it could change but nobody else can take that role at this point. RHH - Pede 2B , LHH - Crawford LF LHH - Gonzo 1B RHH - Youk DH or Lavarnway - Youk could become a trade chip if the kid continues to assault the baseball. ???????????? RF - My wish is still to see Westmoreland recover at some point and according to most sources hes making great strides.  Outside of that I have no idea what Theo's plan may be for the future. RHH - Middlebrooks 3B SWH - Salty and Fed, who is an outstanding defender and beginning to raise his offense.   Theo likes Salty and feels he could have a similar career as Tek. RHH- Iglesias SS , Hopefully SP - Lester, Beckett, Clay, Miller? and Renaudo - Anthony has a good fastball and curveball but will need to develop a "change up" before getting a shot at the bigs.  At 21, I think he has a higher ceiling than Weiland who is now 24. I see Lackeys arm giving out before his contract expires.
    Posted by craze4sox


    I'd prefer Crawford in the 5th or 6th spot.  He isn't a #3 hitter and he has big strides to make if he wants to get to that point in 2014.  Sure it could happen, but I don't project him that way at this point.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Trading, with an eye to the future

    In Response to Re: Trading, with an eye to the future:
    In Response to Re: Trading, with an eye to the future : I'd prefer Crawford in the 5th or 6th spot.  He isn't a #3 hitter and he has big strides to make if he wants to get to that point in 2014.  Sure it could happen, but I don't project him that way at this point.
    Posted by JB-3


    I'm not being too hard on Crawford with only half a year to judge from.  The guy has proven himself in the past, no reason to think he can't here.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Trading, with an eye to the future

    In Response to Re: Trading, with an eye to the future:
    In Response to Re: Trading, with an eye to the future : I'm not being too hard on Crawford with only half a year to judge from.  The guy has proven himself in the past, no reason to think he can't here.
    Posted by craze4sox


    He never profiled as a #3 hitter while he was in Tampa either.  Yes, he's entering his prime and there's room for improvement, but he hasn't shown it yet.  Also, I don't like having someone running around on the basepaths with my cleanup hitter at the plate.  If Crawford bats 5th, he can take more chances to get in scoring position for the bottom half of the lineup.

    I'm not knocking Crawford, his present skill set just doesn't fit that specific role IMO.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Trading, with an eye to the future

    In Response to Re: Trading, with an eye to the future:
    In Response to Re: Trading, with an eye to the future : He never profiled as a #3 hitter while he was in Tampa either.  Yes, he's entering his prime and there's room for improvement, but he hasn't shown it yet.  Also, I don't like having someone running around on the basepaths with my cleanup hitter at the plate.  If Crawford bats 5th, he can take more chances to get in scoring position for the bottom half of the lineup. I'm not knocking Crawford, his present skill set just doesn't fit that specific role IMO.
    Posted by JB-3


    Carl has a 291 career BA in the 3 slot with a 784 OPS IN 803 AB.  He has been a great hitter in the 6th spot with a 349 BA and 1021 OPS but in only 63 AB.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Trading, with an eye to the future

    I just think that there's a difference in hitting 3rd for Tampa (who's built around pitching and defense) and htiting 3rd for the Red Sox.  Up till now, Crawford hasn;t displayed the power required from a #3 hitter in the Red Sox lineup.  Combine that with his base stealing skill set and I don't like him hitting infront of the cleanup hitter.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Trading, with an eye to the future

    In Response to Re: Trading, with an eye to the future:
    I just think that there's a difference in hitting 3rd for Tampa (who's built around pitching and defense) and htiting 3rd for the Red Sox.  Up till now, Crawford hasn;t displayed the power required from a #3 hitter in the Red Sox lineup.  Combine that with his base stealing skill set and I don't like him hitting infront of the cleanup hitter.
    Posted by JB-3


    Makes sense
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Trading, with an eye to the future

    No way is Ellsbury on this team in 2014.  We have Crawford, a ton of LH OF prospects, and a tiny park.  Ellsbury has Scott Boras.  There won't be any home-town discounts, and he is far more valuable to other teams with larger parks.  I'll bet he's gone this winter, hopefully in a move that brings a RH OF bat that will play in 2014. 
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Trading, with an eye to the future

    In Response to Re: Trading, with an eye to the future:
    No way is Ellsbury on this team in 2014.  We have Crawford, a ton of LH OF prospects, and a tiny park.  Ellsbury has Scott Boras.  There won't be any home-town discounts, and he is far more valuable to other teams with larger parks.  I'll bet he's gone this winter, hopefully in a move that brings a RH OF bat that will play in 2014. 
    Posted by slomag


    I see Ellsbury in a Sox uniform next season unless we get an offer we can't refuse like an Upton or Kemp type player.  Theo not only should have money to barter with Boras but also enough leverage with prospects to upgrade RF if he feels its necessary.  Trading your lead off batter, best hitting LH OF and starting CF just to fill our RF position with a RH bat doesn't make much sense if you then have an even larger hole to fill.

    Reddick and Kalish are fastball hitters that need to learn how to hit a breaking ball before being on Jacobys level.
     
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