Under the Radar

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Under the Radar

    Some Under The Radar Options, or players who have serious untapped potential.

    Will Venable. Venable is certainly no monster, but his reputation as an average hitter with some base stealing ability is completely masked by Petco National Park. Venable has surprising power, and a .795 OPS on the road. (.677 at home). If the Sox deal Ellsbury, this is the ideal replacement for CF, although his exposure to LHP has been limited through an ill-conceived platoon. In the right situation, Venable could easily be a 20/20 hitter, maybe with more steals.

    Rick Porcello. "People scream Not An Ace- we don’t need him." Porcello is TWENTY THREE. Rookies older than Porcello debuted this year, and Porcello already has 4 years experience under his belt. Remember when Michael Pineda was last years hot rookie pitcher with a future brighter than the sun? Porcello is one month older than Pineda. Got it? Also, his K/9 have increased 3 straight years while his BB/9 remained relatively constant. Admittedly, the K/9 numbers are not exactly improving in leaps and bounds. His real downfall is that he is primarily a sinkerballer, and the weak infield defense in Detroit is absolutely killing him. His GB percentage is seventeenth among MLB starters over the past 3 years, while his BABIP against is fourth. The cheaper, older, and lesser version of Porcello is Charlie Morton, who also is a reasonable target as an underappreciated pitcher, although he has a tendency to get hit harder. Unlike Morton, Porcello has spent his entire career and basically his whole post-high school life pitching in the American League. Think Derek Lowe type upside, especially if the Sox use Pedroia, Iglesias and Middlebrooks in the infield.

    Scott Baker. The best of all Hidden Gems, but unfortunately he had his health surgically removed.

    Mike Pelfrey. A probable non-tender from the Mets, and likely to miss time post-surgery. Homering off Pelfrey is like homering off God. Pelfrey is a good target for a minor league depth signing.

    Josh Willingham.  Something no one knows is that Josh Willingham has a higher Win Probability over the last 3 years than Matt Kemp, Evan Longoria, David Wright and Robinson Cano, and many other more famous names. He needs to go to San Diego or Seattle, because they are the only caverns he has not yet conquered. Can you imagine if he EVER got into a hitter-friendly park? Just for one season?  2 yrs and $14mil left, I do think he has the potential to be a top target, despite the fact that he looks like what the late, great Jim Croce would call a "frigerator with a head."  Maybe a mini-fridge.

    Justin Smoak. Get him out of Safeco, where his power is strictly warning track. He’ll never be Joey Votto anywhere else, but Smoak simply cannot buy a hit. Smoak is baseball’s unluckiest hitter with a .247 BABIP for the last 3 years, despite respectable line drive and ground ball rates. (Rod Barajas and Vernon Wells had lower BABIP, but Barajas has a ludicrous flyball rate, and Wells has a line drive rate below his pop up rate.) Also, unlike Barajas and Wells, Smoak actually has defensive usefulness.  He just missed Super Two status, so Seattle might be relucant to deal him, or might actually ask for something of value.  But it is probably worth inquiring and some due diligence.

    Chase Headley. Although after 2012, his cover has been blown as a Hidden Gem. This is a token mention only, as he will cost thoroughly to acquire, and the Sox really don’t need a 3B anyway. At least not badly enough to break the bank to get Headley.

    Chris Johnson. All he does is hit line drives. He was buried in offensive obscurity in Houston, and in the middle of an actual lineup where he won’t be the focus, he should be a much more productive hitter.  This dude NEVER hits infield pop ups.  He just has some quality bat control.  The Sox don’t need a 3B, but most teams could use a hitter like Johnson at some point.

     

    Getting all would be flat out stupid, and relying on more than one or two extremely risky.  But the options are out there.

     

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Under the Radar

    We missed our chance to get Willingham when we signed Crawford. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Under the Radar

    But for Seattle firstbaseman Justin Smoak's likley Super Two contract status, the Red Sox could trade 24-year-old outfielder Ryan Kalish for the 25-year-old Smoak. The two have somewhat similar MLB slash lines:

    Smoak .214/.296/.359/.655

    Kalish .243/.293/.351/.644

    ... although the switch-hitting Smoak has an OPS+ of 84 in 1,344 MLB plate appearances while Kalish has an OPS+ of 71 in the small sample of 282 MLB plate appearances.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Under the Radar

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    But for Seattle firstbaseman Justin Smoak's likley Super Two contract status, the Red Sox could trade 24-year-old outfielder Ryan Kalish for the 25-year-old Smoak. The two have somewhat similar MLB slash lines:

    Smoak .214/.296/.359/.655

    Kalish .243/.293/.351/.644

    ... although the switch-hitting Smoak has an OPS+ of 84 in 1,344 MLB plate appearances while Kalish has an OPS+ of 71 in the small sample of 282 MLB plate appearances.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Really, is Smoak and his arbitration-eligibility worth dealing Kalish for?  The limit is probably closer to someone like Ivan DeJesus Jr.   If 3-time BA Top 100 prospect Lars Anderson can only get a 27yo AAAA pitcher, I'm not sure why Smoak is still worth anyone who might still be considered prospect status.

    Seattle could hold on to him and hope it works out.  But one Smoak is eligible for arbitration, if there is no improvement, his trade value plummets much, much further, and he risks entering the Non-Tender Zone...

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Under the Radar

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    But for Seattle firstbaseman Justin Smoak's likley Super Two contract status, the Red Sox could trade 24-year-old outfielder Ryan Kalish for the 25-year-old Smoak. The two have somewhat similar MLB slash lines:

    Smoak .214/.296/.359/.655

    Kalish .243/.293/.351/.644

    ... although the switch-hitting Smoak has an OPS+ of 84 in 1,344 MLB plate appearances while Kalish has an OPS+ of 71 in the small sample of 282 MLB plate appearances.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Really, is Smoak and his arbitration-eligibility worth dealing Kalish for?  The limit is probably closer to someone like Ivan DeJesus Jr.   If 3-time BA Top 100 prospect Lars Anderson can only get a 27yo AAAA pitcher, I'm not sure why Smoak is still worth anyone who might still be considered prospect status.

    Seattle could hold on to him and hope it works out.  But one Smoak is eligible for arbitration, if there is no improvement, his trade value plummets much, much further, and he risks entering the Non-Tender Zone...

     

    [/QUOTE]
    I agree that Justin Smoak's Super Two status should be a deal-breaker, but I would note that Ryan Kalish has long-since passed his prospect status. Kalish has not been a Baseball America Top 100 prospect since making a brief appearance at No. 96 in 2008 (BA ranked Smoak No. 23 in 2009 and No. 13 in 2010).

    Nonetheless, I remain a fan of Kalish after I witnessed his first MLB homerun at Yankee Stadium in August 2010:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA201008060.shtml

    I suspect the Seattle Mariners will hold on the Justin Smoak for another year.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Under the Radar

    Nice list, notin. What's your thoughts on moving the 3Bmen listed to 1B for 2013?

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from rightymclefty. Show rightymclefty's posts

    Re: Under the Radar

    Smoak may be the single biggest bust in recent years. He's a .214 lifetime hitter in 1,344 PAs. Hardly a small sample. He's hitting in the .180s this season. Trading hm for Kalish hoping for a lick and a promise, maybe, but otherwse, pass.

    Chase Headley didn't move at the deadline, because SD wanted a lot in return. That sure won't change after his great post July 31 run.

    Willingham in LF? All day long. You like Jim Croce? A++for you!

    I've always liked Rick Porcello, but why would Detroit trade him?

    Should be a fascinating off season.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Under the Radar

    Headley was really only a token mention, as I said.  I think everyone gets he i a really good player when he is not in SD.

     

    As for Porcello, Detroit might move him because 1) his ground ball tendecnies are clearly not working for them 2) he has refused contract extensions and 3) his agent is... you guessed it.

     

    Hard to say what they would want in return.  Detroit seemed to be after another hitter at the deadline for reasons no one will ever understand.  An intersting thought might be a blockbuster involving Lester, Porcello and Victor Martinez.  Dealing Lester is a tough one, but his struggles at Fenway this year will make him questionable to extend.  And, as Branch Rickey said - better to get rid of a player a year too early than a year too late.  (This deal will never happen.)

     

    And yes, Croce is a demi-God at minimum...

     
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  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Under the Radar

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    Headley was really only a token mention, as I said.  I think everyone gets he i a really good player when he is not in SD.

     

    As for Porcello, Detroit might move him because 1) his ground ball tendecnies are clearly not working for them 2) he has refused contract extensions and 3) his agent is... you guessed it.

     

    Hard to say what they would want in return.  Detroit seemed to be after another hitter at the deadline for reasons no one will ever understand.  An intersting thought might be a blockbuster involving Lester, Porcello and Victor Martinez.  Dealing Lester is a tough one, but his struggles at Fenway this year will make him questionable to extend.  And, as Branch Rickey said - better to get rid of a player a year too early than a year too late.  (This deal will never happen.)

     

    And yes, Croce is a demi-God at minimum...

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Could you see a blockbuster for Willingham and Morneau?

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Under the Radar

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    Could you see a blockbuster for Willingham and Morneau?

    That's interesting.  But would the Twins want to do that deal, and what would we have to give up to make it happen?


     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from MustangBri. Show MustangBri's posts

    Re: Under the Radar

    Excellent, excellent post Notin. 

     

    Especially liked what you brought to the table regarding Rick Porcello.

     

    Nice job.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Under the Radar

    The Twins have repeatedly said that Willingham is NOT available.  I guess that could be jockeying.

    I agree w. Righty re: Smoak.  I'd gladly trade Kalish for him, but I'm not willing to give up a ton.  He'd be an option, not a definite starter.  

    Re: moon's Q: I'd be interested in moving Headley to 1B to get his bat in the lineup.

    Pass on Porcello , Pelfrey.  Soft-throwers do not fare well in the AL East (Pelfrey).  Porcello's sinker isnt elite.

     

    We have money.  If we want to go after a sinkerballer (not a terrible idea), I'd much rather roll the dice w Peavy.

    Does 3 yrs / 30 M for Peavy get it done?

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Under the Radar

    Let's not start loading up with even more mediocrities.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from AL34. Show AL34's posts

    Re: Under the Radar

    Why would you want Smoak, Seattle papers back in June were saying that he is a bust so far. Texas traded him for Lee and they knew what they were doing.

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    But for Seattle firstbaseman Justin Smoak's likley Super Two contract status, the Red Sox could trade 24-year-old outfielder Ryan Kalish for the 25-year-old Smoak. The two have somewhat similar MLB slash lines:

    Smoak .214/.296/.359/.655

    Kalish .243/.293/.351/.644

    ... although the switch-hitting Smoak has an OPS+ of 84 in 1,344 MLB plate appearances while Kalish has an OPS+ of 71 in the small sample of 282 MLB plate appearances.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Really, is Smoak and his arbitration-eligibility worth dealing Kalish for?  The limit is probably closer to someone like Ivan DeJesus Jr.   If 3-time BA Top 100 prospect Lars Anderson can only get a 27yo AAAA pitcher, I'm not sure why Smoak is still worth anyone who might still be considered prospect status.

    Seattle could hold on to him and hope it works out.  But one Smoak is eligible for arbitration, if there is no improvement, his trade value plummets much, much further, and he risks entering the Non-Tender Zone...

     

    [/QUOTE]
    I agree that Justin Smoak's Super Two status should be a deal-breaker, but I would note that Ryan Kalish has long-since passed his prospect status. Kalish has not been a Baseball America Top 100 prospect since making a brief appearance at No. 96 in 2008 (BA ranked Smoak No. 23 in 2009 and No. 13 in 2010).

    Nonetheless, I remain a fan of Kalish after I witnessed his first MLB homerun at Yankee Stadium in August 2010:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA201008060.shtml

    I suspect the Seattle Mariners will hold on the Justin Smoak for another year.

     

    [/QUOTE]


     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Under the Radar

    In response to AL34's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Why would you want Smoak, Seattle papers back in June were saying that he is a bust so far. Texas traded him for Lee and they knew what they were doing.

    [/QUOTE]

    Because in that sense Ryan Kalish (career OPS+ 71) nearly matches up with Justin Smoak (career OPS+ 84) and because the Red Sox may be auditioning firstbasemen.

    No one has suggested that Justin Smoak has not been "a bust so far," but the 25-year-old switch-hitter is a buy-low candidate.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Under the Radar

    I wouldn't give up on Kalish yet - he has not been prospect eligible since 2009 due to his callup in 2010, but his minor-league numbers in 2010 were as good as Jackie Bradley Jr's this year, at the same age.  He's had to come back from injuries and adjust to the majors at the same time.  He's only 8 months older than Bryce Brentz.

    Also, even if Kalish disappoints and never reaches full-time player status, he can be a cheap 4th or 5th OF with the ability to play any OF position well, and to steal a base.  If Smoak never reaches his potential, there really isn't any place for him on an MLB roster.

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Under the Radar

    In response to slomag's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I wouldn't give up on Kalish yet - he has not been prospect eligible since 2009 due to his callup in 2010, but his minor-league numbers in 2010 were as good as Jackie Bradley Jr's this year, at the same age.  He's had to come back from injuries and adjust to the majors at the same time.  He's only 8 months older than Bryce Brentz.

    Also, even if Kalish disappoints and never reaches full-time player status, he can be a cheap 4th or 5th OF with the ability to play any OF position well, and to steal a base.  If Smoak never reaches his potential, there really isn't any place for him on an MLB roster.

    [/QUOTE]

    Ryan Kalish and Justin Smoak share that in common as well. Here are their age 22 minor league stats spread primarily across Double A and Triple A:

    Smoak 2009 471 PA, .290/.410/.443/.853

    Kalish 2010 343 PA, .294/.382/.502/.884

    The UZR numbers have not been kind to Kalish:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6962&position=OF#fieldingadvanced

    Speaking of Bryce Brentz, here is what a FanGraphs columnist wrote today:

    Bryce Brentz, OF, Boston: Brentz is one of those fringe prospects for me. I have yet to buy into him as a future full-time player at the big league level and he doesn’t really offer enough defense (although he has a strong arm) to be an ideal fourth outfielder. His best hope is likely a platoon job. Brentz hit almost .300 in double-A in 2012 but was aided by a .370 BABIP. If he continues to strikeout at rates between 24- 26% he’s more likely to hit around .240-.260 with 55-60 power (20-80 scale).

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/arizona-fall-league-breakdown-surprise-saguaros/

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Under the Radar

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to slomag's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I wouldn't give up on Kalish yet - he has not been prospect eligible since 2009 due to his callup in 2010, but his minor-league numbers in 2010 were as good as Jackie Bradley Jr's this year, at the same age.  He's had to come back from injuries and adjust to the majors at the same time.  He's only 8 months older than Bryce Brentz.

    Also, even if Kalish disappoints and never reaches full-time player status, he can be a cheap 4th or 5th OF with the ability to play any OF position well, and to steal a base.  If Smoak never reaches his potential, there really isn't any place for him on an MLB roster.

    [/QUOTE]

    Ryan Kalish and Justin Smoak share that in common as well. Here are their age 22 minor league stats spread primarily across Double A and Triple A:

    Smoak 2009 471 PA, .290/.410/.443/.853

    Kalish 2010 343 PA, .294/.382/.502/.884

    The UZR numbers have not been kind to Kalish:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6962&position=OF#fieldingadvanced

    Speaking of Bryce Brentz, here is what a FanGraphs columnist wrote today:

    Bryce Brentz, OF, Boston: Brentz is one of those fringe prospects for me. I have yet to buy into him as a future full-time player at the big league level and he doesn’t really offer enough defense (although he has a strong arm) to be an ideal fourth outfielder. His best hope is likely a platoon job. Brentz hit almost .300 in double-A in 2012 but was aided by a .370 BABIP. If he continues to strikeout at rates between 24- 26% he’s more likely to hit around .240-.260 with 55-60 power (20-80 scale).

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/arizona-fall-league-breakdown-surprise-saguaros/

     

    [/QUOTE]

    The biggest difference between Kalish and Smoak is if we are going to label one a bust, it would be the one who has had more than a 1000 MLB at bats since his age 22 season.  To give up on either is premature, but to give up on Kalish is ridiculous.  This is the guy the FO liked better than Reddick 8 months ago.

    I'm not high on Brentz either, but some scouts are.  MLB.com has him listed as prospect #76, ahead of the likes of Straily, Corcino, Webster, Banuelos, and AJ Cole.

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: Under the Radar

    Thanks notin I appreciate your ideas for guaranteeing a last place finish in 2013

    Smoak?  ROFL

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Under the Radar

    To want to trade a prospect for another player may not signify "giving up" on him.

     
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  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Under the Radar

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    We missed our chance to get Willingham when we signed Crawford. 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Probably missed our chance on Headley when we traded for Gonzo.  He had a .702 OPS that year.  Now he'll be expensive, And less of a fit.  Had we acquired Headley and Willingham instead of CC and Gonzo, we'd be much better off.  Even now, it's only $11M all in v the $42M that we were paying for CC and Gonzo.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Under the Radar

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    We missed our chance to get Willingham when we signed Crawford. 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Probably missed our chance on Headley when we traded for Gonzo.  He had a .702 OPS that year.  Now he'll be expensive, And less of a fit.  Had we acquired Headley and Willingham instead of CC and Gonzo, we'd be much better off.  Even now, it's only $11M all in v the $42M that we were paying for CC and Gonzo.

     

    [/QUOTE]


     

    I trace it all the way back to Holliday. Had we got him instead of CC...

     
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