Valid Comparison

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Valid Comparison

    http://www.overthemonster.com/2012/12/21/3792374/mike-napoli-adrian-gonzalez-boston-red-sox-hot-stove

    he Red Sox were able to rid themselves of some pretty dreadful contracts this past season thanks to the trade with the Dodgers, but that financial freedom had a cost and that cost was Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez had an off-year in 2012, posting career worst on-base and slugging numbers thanks to a terrible start to the season, but he still managed to be 15% better than league average at the plate and he still gave the Red Sox elite defense at first base. His seven year/ $157M contract is still a bargain considering the ten year/$240M deal that Albert Pujols got from the Angels or the nine year $214M deal Detroit gave Prince Fielder. Even with his production beginning to wane, Adrian Gonzalez’s production is still a difficult player to replace.

    Boston has chosen to sign Mike Napoli to play first base in place of Gonzo, giving him a three year/ $39M deal. Team building is not so simple that Napoli alone needs to replace the production that Gonzalez gave Boston, but it is worth looking at what the Red Sox can expect from their new first baseman as it compares to what they gave up when they traded Gonzalez.

    For their careers, Gonzalez andNapoli have been surprisingly close in offensive production.Napoli is about seven months older than Gonzalez but while Gonzo played some in the majors in 2004 and 2005 both became full-time players in 2006. Because Napoli was a catcher (and in part because Mike Scioscia hated him as a catcher), he has nearly half as many total plate appearances as Gonzalez, but on a 162 game average, Napoli has hit 33 home runs, walked 70 times and driven in 85 runs with a 259/.356/.507 batting line while Gonzo has averaged 29 home runs, 103 RBIs, 73 walks and a .294/.371/.507 batting line. They are very different hitters in some respects. Gonzalez makes a good deal more contact, as his advantage in batting average suggests andNapoli is very prone to strike outs; he has a career rate of 25.4% and he topped 30% last season. This compares poorly to Gonzo’s 17.7% career rate, however,Napoli has tempered that rise in strike outs by being even more discerning in the batter’s box. His 13.4% walk rate last year was more than double Gonzo 6.1% rate last year (a shocking career low for him). Overall, the style might be very different, but the result is very close. By weighted Runs Created Plus, Napoli has been 28% better than average in his career and Gonzalez has been 33% better than average and they are even closer in the past three years, withNapoli at 135 wRC+ and Gonzo at 137. Both players are still close to their prime and both have shown some signs of decline, but there is no reason to project them much differently in the 2013 season.

    The bigger difference between the two is likely to come on the defensive side. Adrian Gonzalez is an elite defensive first baseman. By Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) he has average 4.5 runs saved per 150 games. Total Zone sees him saving eight runs a year. Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) credits him with close to ten runs a year saved.Napoli is not going to be that kind of defensive player. He was never well-regarded as a defensive catcher and while first base is a considerably less complex defensive position, the early indications point toNapoli being an average defender. He has 1040 innings at first base in his career, all of which have come in the last three seasons. In that small sample, he is -3.4 below average per 150 games by UZR, -1 run below average by Total Zone and exactly average by DRS. It best to regress these numbers some and in doing that, we get the picture of an average defender. It is certainly possible that more regular work at the position could help to makeNapoli a plus defender, but he almost certainly will not approach Gonzalez’s levels of defensive value.

    Napoli gives the Red Sox a positional freedom that Gonzalez did not. Should they needNapoli to catch, he can handle limited work behind the plate.Boston tried Gonzalez in right-field some over the past two seasons, primarily as a way to keep David Ortiz or Kevin Youkilis in the line up, but Gonzo could never really fit anywhere but at first. This is not the easy thing to put a value on, either in terms of runs or wins, but it is an asset, particularly with David Ortiz still around.

    Mike Napoli alone replaces all but approximately 10-12 runs (or approximately 1 Win Above Replacement) of overall production that the Red Sox might have expected from Gonzalez. He also costs around $8M less in each of the next three seasons and will not factor into the Red Sox plans after that. With wins valued around $5M per WAR, the difference in cost is more than enough to offset the difference in production. If it were not for Gonzalez bizarre 2012 season, Napoli would like be considered the bigger risk, but Gonzalez raised enough questions last year to even the scales in that respect. It is possible thatNapoli is the better player from now on, but it is unlikely. However, the Red Sox are likely to be a better team withNapoli, thanks and the added flexibility he gives them, both on the field and in the bank.

     

    Thoughts?

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from baddad. Show baddad's posts

    Re: Valid Comparison

    i agree wholeheartily.....gonzlez was the real deal....he will be sorely missed

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from bigdog1. Show bigdog1's posts

    Re: Valid Comparison

    I loved Gonzo and he will be missed but we had to get rid of the two other player's that did not want to be here!!

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Valid Comparison

    yeah. A-gon was a boss. it sucked but it allowed us to do something thats never been done before and just hit the reset button completely. we have a pretty good farm and can really turn into a juggernaut in these upcoming years.

    wish we could have done something to keep him around lol but thats the business. what are you gonna do?

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: Valid Comparison

    It's an interesting comparison - but I think I'd rather have Anthony Rizzo than either of them

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Valid Comparison

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    It's an interesting comparison - but I think I'd rather have Anthony Rizzo than either of them

    [/QUOTE]


    +1  We seem to be agreeing on a lot of things lately.

    Gonzo was/is a great player, but a crybaby. I have no issue with him back in SoCal. Id rather have Rizzo as well. I was very high on that kid. Time will tell if he is the real deal or not.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: Valid Comparison

    Flash Forward to 2013 October: Gonz has played in 156 games this season and Napoli played in 110. Hmmmm.... I wonder who helped their team more. 

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: Valid Comparison

    In response to Drewski5's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    http://www.overthemonster.com/2012/12/21/3792374/mike-napoli-adrian-gonzalez-boston-red-sox-hot-stove

    he Red Sox were able to rid themselves of some pretty dreadful contracts this past season thanks to the trade with the Dodgers, but that financial freedom had a cost and that cost was Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez had an off-year in 2012, posting career worst on-base and slugging numbers thanks to a terrible start to the season, but he still managed to be 15% better than league average at the plate and he still gave the Red Sox elite defense at first base. His seven year/ $157M contract is still a bargain considering the ten year/$240M deal that Albert Pujols got from the Angels or the nine year $214M deal Detroit gave Prince Fielder. Even with his production beginning to wane, Adrian Gonzalez’s production is still a difficult player to replace.

    Boston has chosen to sign Mike Napoli to play first base in place of Gonzo, giving him a three year/ $39M deal. Team building is not so simple that Napoli alone needs to replace the production that Gonzalez gave Boston, but it is worth looking at what the Red Sox can expect from their new first baseman as it compares to what they gave up when they traded Gonzalez.

    For their careers, Gonzalez andNapoli have been surprisingly close in offensive production.Napoli is about seven months older than Gonzalez but while Gonzo played some in the majors in 2004 and 2005 both became full-time players in 2006. Because Napoli was a catcher (and in part because Mike Scioscia hated him as a catcher), he has nearly half as many total plate appearances as Gonzalez, but on a 162 game average, Napoli has hit 33 home runs, walked 70 times and driven in 85 runs with a 259/.356/.507 batting line while Gonzo has averaged 29 home runs, 103 RBIs, 73 walks and a .294/.371/.507 batting line. They are very different hitters in some respects. Gonzalez makes a good deal more contact, as his advantage in batting average suggests andNapoli is very prone to strike outs; he has a career rate of 25.4% and he topped 30% last season. This compares poorly to Gonzo’s 17.7% career rate, however,Napoli has tempered that rise in strike outs by being even more discerning in the batter’s box. His 13.4% walk rate last year was more than double Gonzo 6.1% rate last year (a shocking career low for him). Overall, the style might be very different, but the result is very close. By weighted Runs Created Plus, Napoli has been 28% better than average in his career and Gonzalez has been 33% better than average and they are even closer in the past three years, withNapoli at 135 wRC+ and Gonzo at 137. Both players are still close to their prime and both have shown some signs of decline, but there is no reason to project them much differently in the 2013 season.

    The bigger difference between the two is likely to come on the defensive side. Adrian Gonzalez is an elite defensive first baseman. By Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) he has average 4.5 runs saved per 150 games. Total Zone sees him saving eight runs a year. Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) credits him with close to ten runs a year saved.Napoli is not going to be that kind of defensive player. He was never well-regarded as a defensive catcher and while first base is a considerably less complex defensive position, the early indications point toNapoli being an average defender. He has 1040 innings at first base in his career, all of which have come in the last three seasons. In that small sample, he is -3.4 below average per 150 games by UZR, -1 run below average by Total Zone and exactly average by DRS. It best to regress these numbers some and in doing that, we get the picture of an average defender. It is certainly possible that more regular work at the position could help to makeNapoli a plus defender, but he almost certainly will not approach Gonzalez’s levels of defensive value.

    Napoli gives the Red Sox a positional freedom that Gonzalez did not. Should they needNapoli to catch, he can handle limited work behind the plate.Boston tried Gonzalez in right-field some over the past two seasons, primarily as a way to keep David Ortiz or Kevin Youkilis in the line up, but Gonzo could never really fit anywhere but at first. This is not the easy thing to put a value on, either in terms of runs or wins, but it is an asset, particularly with David Ortiz still around.

    Mike Napoli alone replaces all but approximately 10-12 runs (or approximately 1 Win Above Replacement) of overall production that the Red Sox might have expected from Gonzalez. He also costs around $8M less in each of the next three seasons and will not factor into the Red Sox plans after that. With wins valued around $5M per WAR, the difference in cost is more than enough to offset the difference in production. If it were not for Gonzalez bizarre 2012 season, Napoli would like be considered the bigger risk, but Gonzalez raised enough questions last year to even the scales in that respect. It is possible thatNapoli is the better player from now on, but it is unlikely. However, the Red Sox are likely to be a better team withNapoli, thanks and the added flexibility he gives them, both on the field and in the bank.

     

    Thoughts?

    [/QUOTE]

    Yeh, one player just failed a medical exam.  If it affects his play, throw all the numbers and analysis away.  

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Valid Comparison

    If they can get it down to 2 years with protective language in it, then Imm still go with the deal.

    I wouldnt comare the 2 players though. Gonzo is the better all around player of the 2.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Valid Comparison

    Hey Drewski,

    In the end, if we look at the backs of thier baseball cards, it's pretty clear that Gonzalez is the better player. That said, not sure that Gonzalez is or was comfortable being the straws that stirs the drink. An intangable that shouldn't be underscored in the frame work of a team, given his place in the lineup and the moneys he's paid. The weight of expectation can be a heavy burden. In LA it's Kemp's team and as such Gonzalez won't be asked to do more than show up and play. In Boston he was expected to be a leader, an uncomfortable crown with the omni-present media horde...

    In fairness to Napoli comparing the two without consideration to thier respective roles in the big picture of the team is to underscore an integral intangable; team chemistry...Napoli if healthy and if his contract situation gets straightened out, will show up to the park everyday and play hard. No one expects him to be a leader nor will he be asked to carry the load.

    So If you do some simple math Agon's salary and production vs Napoli @ 13M or 65% of Agon's 20M per anum salary. The net savings (7M) in dollors allows the Sox to add another complimentary piece or pieces to the equasion. That's without consideration to the longterm commitment...Which in theory should, if the moneys are used wisely, then make them a deeper team. If Napoli and the added players produce a net result greater than the sum of thier parts. Then the loss of Gonzalez should be mitigated?

    What can never be replaced and what made Manny so dangerous, was not that he was a great hitter it was that he hit good pitching. Something about Gonzalez reminded me of Wade Bogg's both great hitters but something was missing....To this very day, I can't put a finger on it...perhaps it that neither was a leader?

     
  11. This post has been removed.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Valid Comparison

    AGon (like Teix) is paid like a superstar but is declining into being just good.

    2009  2010   2011   2012   PitchfX

    Percentage of pitches seen inside the strike zone 

    43   43   44   48

    Percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown outside the strike zone

    66  66   70   76

    Total percentage of pitches a batter swings at 

    43  46  47  51

     Percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone

    25  31  33  35

    Fastball runs above average, includes FF (four seam) and FA (unclassified fastball)

    28  14  28  -2

    Pitchers have adjusted their approach to AGon, they are throwing him more strikes but he is not making them pay.  He is less patient swinging at more pitches out of the strike zone and putting them into play more often. 

    Bill James has him bouncing back to 2010 like numbers, I don't see it.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: Valid Comparison

    The Sox are actually very lucky that Napoli is so banged-up it is holding up this deal.

    They should apply sober reflection and drop the idea altogether.

    If they feel they must sign a 1B - find another one; or they can train another one. 

    Napoli isn't going to work at all.

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Valid Comparison

    I agree with Tom.  I loved having Gonzo here, but you can see the numbers decling.  It's impossible to compare Boston to SD, with the parks and lineups, but the K/W has gone way, way down.  It was supposed to, coming from SD, but it went down from 119/74 to 110/42 since SD.

    He's still a very good player, but that $22M is going to look pretty onerous in the last 2-3 years of his contract.  I think we maxed out his value.

    And the comparison is really Napoli v the rest of the FA 1Bs, not Napoli v Gonzo.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Valid Comparison

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I agree with Tom.  I loved having Gonzo here, but you can see the numbers decling.  It's impossible to compare Boston to SD, with the parks and lineups, but the K/W has gone way, way down.  It was supposed to, coming from SD, but it went down from 119/74 to 110/42 since SD.

    He's still a very good player, but that $22M is going to look pretty onerous in the last 2-3 years of his contract.  I think we maxed out his value.

    And the comparison is really Napoli v the rest of the FA 1Bs, not Napoli v Gonzo.

    [/QUOTE]

    Hey Joe,

    Well said, and I concur with that said I'm not sure that Napoli wasn't the best availble given the draft compensation and also that he's a righthanded hitter with pop slots nicely in the lineup after Papi

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from xdrive. Show xdrive's posts

    Re: Valid Comparison

    In response to baddad's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    i agree wholeheartily.....gonzlez was the real deal....he will be sorely missed

    [/QUOTE]

    He didn't seem to want to be here, he was kinda whiny too

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: Valid Comparison

    I do not understand why Cherington is making an effort to sign Napoli.  Let him walk away. 

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: Valid Comparison

    In response to Beantowne's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Hey Drewski,

    In the end, if we look at the backs of thier baseball cards, it's pretty clear that Gonzalez is the better player. That said, not sure that Gonzalez is or was comfortable being the straws that stirs the drink. An intangable that shouldn't be underscored in the frame work of a team, given his place in the lineup and the moneys he's paid. The weight of expectation can be a heavy burden. In LA it's Kemp's team and as such Gonzalez won't be asked to do more than show up and play. In Boston he was expected to be a leader, an uncomfortable crown with the omni-present media horde...

    In fairness to Napoli comparing the two without consideration to thier respective roles in the big picture of the team is to underscore an integral intangable; team chemistry...Napoli if healthy and if his contract situation gets straightened out, will show up to the park everyday and play hard. No one expects him to be a leader nor will he be asked to carry the load.

    So If you do some simple math Agon's salary and production vs Napoli @ 13M or 65% of Agon's 20M per anum salary. The net savings (7M) in dollors allows the Sox to add another complimentary piece or pieces to the equasion. That's without consideration to the longterm commitment...Which in theory should, if the moneys are used wisely, then make them a deeper team. If Napoli and the added players produce a net result greater than the sum of thier parts. Then the loss of Gonzalez should be mitigated?

    What can never be replaced and what made Manny so dangerous, was not that he was a great hitter it was that he hit good pitching. Something about Gonzalez reminded me of Wade Bogg's both great hitters but something was missing....To this very day, I can't put a finger on it...perhaps it that neither was a leader?

    [/QUOTE]

    It is that simple... back of a card.... or watching a game..... 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: Valid Comparison

    Nothing better than 104 games of Napoli... who in the hell would think AGON was better? My blood vessels are popping over this.

     

    Think about how the other 50 games this season that NAPOLI WONT BE IN will unfold? All of a sudden who plays 1st? how does Ortiz fair when the MASHER NAPOLI is not in the line-up for 50 games?

     

    On and on I could go

     

    Good Night

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Valid Comparison

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Nothing better than 104 games of Napoli... who in the hell would think AGON was better? My blood vessels are popping over this.

     

    Think about how the other 50 games this season that NAPOLI WONT BE IN will unfold? All of a sudden who plays 1st? how does Ortiz fair when the MASHER NAPOLI is not in the line-up for 50 games?

     

    On and on I could go

     

    Good Night

    [/QUOTE]


    i'm not advocating it... but drew could play 1st base. also lava may be converted to a 1Bman although its doubtful that he would be ready 2/3s into the season. but on the other hand 1B is the easiest position to play...

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Valid Comparison

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Nothing better than 104 games of Napoli... who in the hell would think AGON was better? My blood vessels are popping over this.

     

    Think about how the other 50 games this season that NAPOLI WONT BE IN will unfold? All of a sudden who plays 1st? how does Ortiz fair when the MASHER NAPOLI is not in the line-up for 50 games?

     

    On and on I could go

     

    Good Night

    [/QUOTE]

    Good night, man.  Nothing on an internet forum is worth keeping with you after you leave said internet forum.  Hope I didnt aggravate you too much.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Valid Comparison

    In response to mef429's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Nothing better than 104 games of Napoli... who in the hell would think AGON was better? My blood vessels are popping over this.

     

    Think about how the other 50 games this season that NAPOLI WONT BE IN will unfold? All of a sudden who plays 1st? how does Ortiz fair when the MASHER NAPOLI is not in the line-up for 50 games?

     

    On and on I could go

     

    Good Night

    [/QUOTE]


    i'm not advocating it... but drew could play 1st base. also lava may be converted to a 1Bman although its doubtful that he would be ready 2/3s into the season. but on the other hand 1B is the easiest position to play...

    [/QUOTE]

    Gomez/Jerry Sands are options as well.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Valid Comparison

    Salty is a better option at 1B in 2013 than Lava or Drew, but maybe softy will get his Christmas wish and we could have a Loney/Gomez platoon at 1B. (Almsot as bad as his suggestion of Overbay at 1B in 2011.  (Or Nick Johnson, Kotchman...)

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: Valid Comparison

    the only other 1B we can get without giving up a draft pick is lance berkman...i still want napoli..berkman wants 2 year deal. 

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Valid Comparison

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Salty is a better option at 1B in 2013 than Lava or Drew, but maybe softy will get his Christmas wish and we could have a Loney/Gomez platoon at 1B. (Almsot as bad as his suggestion of Overbay at 1B in 2011.  (Or Nick Johnson, Kotchman...)

    [/QUOTE]

    My hatred for Casey Kotchman rivals Burrito's hatred for Napoli.

     

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