Verlander deserves MVP

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Verlander deserves MVP

    A starting pitcher essentially gets 27-40 PAs per start (every 5 games).
     
    A positional player gets about 16-25 PAs every 5 games.

    To me, all PAs are about equally important in the long run whether bunched up or spread out.

    Jacoby played in 158 games and had 729 PAs. He certainly had a part in many of our wins, but go through his game logs and see how many of those 158 games we probably would not have won without him:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=ellsbja01&t=b&year=2011

    One batter (and fielder) rarely wins or loses a game all by himself. He is usually just about 1/9th of the offensive story of each game. Pitchers don't always earn all their wins or deserve all their loses, but they certainly are more than 1/9th of the overall story for any given game.

    I know this is a crude way of looking at the issue at hand, but it gets to the crux of the difference in opinions. For argument's sake, let's say a great starting pitcher is responsible for about 1/3rd of result of the game (win or loss). If you look at the odds in Vegas, you'll see that the starting pitcher is the number one factor in what the odds are. Let's say a great hitter (and good fielder) like Jacoby is responsible for 1/6th ot 1/7th of the offense of his team, which would mean about 1/14th of the overall game result (counting pitching fielding, hitting and running). In theory, Ellsbury would account for winning about 1/14th of the 158 games he played in-or 12 games. Verlander would account for about 1/3rd of his 34 starts- or about 11 games. It's pretty close.

    Sidenote: my numbers were just guesses. I did not try and be too scientific. I was just trying to give a rough idea on how much everyday players actually can and do influence the outcome of the games they play in. Oftentimes everyday players actually contribute to a loss by going 0-4 or 1-4, or getting picked off, CS, misjudging a fielding play, etc... Pitchers also have bad games, but Verlander had very few of those. Looking at Verlander's gamelog, I can see about 1 awful game and about 2-3 bad games (most of which they won anyway...like 6 IP 4 ERs).

    The team went 25-9 in his starts. The 9 losses...

    IP-ER
    6-3
    9-2
    6-3
    6-3
    6-3
    8-3
    7.2-1
    6-4
    7-5




     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from rickerd2. Show rickerd2's posts

    Re: Verlander deserves MVP

    Pitchers win the MVP for the World Series or Championship series.  Why not for a season?
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from saintJ. Show saintJ's posts

    Re: Verlander deserves MVP

    In Response to Re: Verlander deserves MVP:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Verlander deserves MVP : But do you agree that if a pitcher has 2 complete-game wins and his team wins the series 4-3, that he could be a worthy series MVP?  
    Posted by Hfxsoxnut[/QUOTE]

    Of course, just like the Royals can beat the yanks in a 3 game series.  Anything can happen in a short series.  How many times do we see an ace pitch in relief in the post season?  All the time.  Now if we were talking about a starter that gets 40-45 starts over the season, I could see them winning the MVP.  But when you consider that a starter who throws 250 half innings out of a teams 2900 half innings directly impacts 9% of the game, I say no way.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Verlander deserves MVP

    In Response to Re: Verlander deserves MVP:
    [QUOTE]A starting pitcher essentially gets 27-40 PAs per start (every 5 games).   A positional player gets about 16-25 PAs every 5 games. To me, all PAs are about equally important in the long run whether bunched up or spread out. Jacoby played in 158 games and had 729 PAs. He certainly had a part in many of our wins, but go through his game logs and see how many of those 158 games we probably would not have won without him: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=ellsbja01&t=b&year=2011 One batter (and fielder) rarely wins or loses a game all by himself. He is usually just about 1/9th of the offensive story of each game. Pitchers don't always earn all their wins or deserve all their loses, but they certainly are more than 1/9th of the overall story for any given game. I know this is a crude way of looking at the issue at hand, but it gets to the crux of the difference in opinions. For argument's sake, let's say a great starting pitcher is responsible for about 1/3rd of result of the game (win or loss). If you look at the odds in Vegas, you'll see that the starting pitcher is the number one factor in what the odds are. Let's say a great hitter (and good fielder) like Jacoby is responsible for 1/6th ot 1/7th of the offense of his team, which would mean about 1/14th of the overall game result (counting pitching fielding, hitting and running). In theory, Ellsbury would account for winning about 1/14th of the 158 games he played in-or 12 games. Verlander would account for about 1/3rd of his 34 starts- or about 11 games. It's pretty close. Sidenote: my numbers were just guesses. I did not try and be too scientific. I was just trying to give a rough idea on how much everyday players actually can and do influence the outcome of the games they play in. Oftentimes everyday players actually contribute to a loss by going 0-4 or 1-4, or getting picked off, CS, misjudging a fielding play, etc... Pitchers also have bad games, but Verlander had very few of those. Looking at Verlander's gamelog, I can see about 1 awful game and about 2-3 bad games (most of which they won anyway...like 6 IP 4 ERs). The team went 25-9 in his starts. The 9 losses... IP-ER 6-3 9-2 6-3 6-3 6-3 8-3 7.2-1 6-4 7-5
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I think that's a great way of looking at it, but I think that also demonstrates that the ceiling for potential impact of starting pitchers is much lower than everyday players.  Ellsbury had a great year and accounted for 1/7 of the Sox offense - if he puts up the same numbers on nearly any other team, that could easily be 1/6 or 1/5.  I put Zobrist in that range - he didn't have Ellsbury's numbers, but his impact was more significant because his team was otherwise so weak offensively.  Barry Bonds of 1993 may have accounted for 1/3 - 1/4 of his team's wins all on his own (this was back when he could field and wear a human-sized hat). 


     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Verlander deserves MVP

    In Response to Re: Verlander deserves MVP:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Verlander deserves MVP : Aha, yes, zac, and what I would expect some people to say is, well, if he was the winning pitcher in 2 of the 4 wins, he won half the games.  Once you buy into that argument, you're at least admitting that a guy who was only in 2 games could be more important than a guy who was in 7. 
    Posted by Hfxsoxnut[/QUOTE]

    But has there ever been a playoff pitcher MVP who won only 1 of the 4 games? 
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Verlander deserves MVP

    In Response to Re: Verlander deserves MVP:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Verlander deserves MVP : But has there ever been a playoff pitcher MVP who won only 1 of the 4 games? 
    Posted by slomag[/QUOTE]

    Yes, Schilling was co-MVP of the 2001 World Series with one win.
     
  7. This post has been removed.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Verlander deserves MVP

    Of course, just like the Royals can beat the yanks in a 3 game series.  Anything can happen in a short series.  How many times do we see an ace pitch in relief in the post season?  All the time.  Now if we were talking about a starter that gets 40-45 starts over the season, I could see them winning the MVP.  But when you consider that a starter who throws 250 half innings out of a teams 2900 half innings directly impacts 9% of the game, I say no way.

    Then look at Jacoby: 729 PAs out of 6410. That is only 11.4% of the offensive PAs or about 5.7% of all PAs on offense and defense.

    Detroit had 5563 PAs on offense and 6108 PAs against. That's a total of 11,671, of which Verlander was involved in 969 of them or 8.3%. That's 2.6% more than Jacoby.

    Yes, Jacoby played good defense. Yes, Jacoby ran the bases well. No, Jacoby's team did not make the playoffs. I still think Verlander was clearly the best player in MLB for 2011.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from saintJ. Show saintJ's posts

    Re: Verlander deserves MVP

    In Response to Re: Verlander deserves MVP:
    [QUOTE]Of course, just like the Royals can beat the yanks in a 3 game series.  Anything can happen in a short series.  How many times do we see an ace pitch in relief in the post season?  All the time.  Now if we were talking about a starter that gets 40-45 starts over the season, I could see them winning the MVP.  But when you consider that a starter who throws 250 half innings out of a teams 2900 half innings directly impacts 9% of the game, I say no way. Then look at Jacoby: 729 PAs out of 6410. That is only 11.4% of the offensive PAs or about 5.7% of all PAs on offense and defense. Detroit had 5563 PAs on offense and 6108 PAs against. That's a total of 11,671, of which Verlander was involved in 969 of them or 8.3%. That's 2.6% more than Jacoby. Yes, Jacoby played good defense. Yes, Jacoby ran the bases well. No, Jacoby's team did not make the playoffs. I still think Verlander was clearly the best player in MLB for 2011.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Good post but I am refering to playing time, not just plays made, pitches thrown or at bats.  When a pitcher is in the dugout or bull pen his impact on the game is nill.  He could be in the club house for all we know eating chicken or drinking beer on off days.  A position player between at bats is at least studying the pitcher or on off days getting ready to pinch hit or run.  A position player is active for darn near 100% of the game, even if just standing in the out field, influencing where the hitter wants to put the ball.  Take a guy like Papi.  With the shift on the second baseman may not make the play but his position has an effect on where Papi wants to hit the ball.  As far as MVP voting I would consider the toughest defensive postions first C, SS, 2nd, CF over 1st and 3rd.  Starting pitchers come next DH and closers last.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Verlander deserves MVP

    Simply put, if the contracts were the same, I think we make the playoffs with Verlander on our team and Ellsbury not.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Verlander deserves MVP

    In Response to Re: Verlander deserves MVP:
    [QUOTE]Of course, just like the Royals can beat the yanks in a 3 game series.  Anything can happen in a short series.  How many times do we see an ace pitch in relief in the post season?  All the time.  Now if we were talking about a starter that gets 40-45 starts over the season, I could see them winning the MVP.  But when you consider that a starter who throws 250 half innings out of a teams 2900 half innings directly impacts 9% of the game, I say no way. Then look at Jacoby: 729 PAs out of 6410. That is only 11.4% of the offensive PAs or about 5.7% of all PAs on offense and defense. Detroit had 5563 PAs on offense and 6108 PAs against. That's a total of 11,671, of which Verlander was involved in 969 of them or 8.3%. That's 2.6% more than Jacoby. Yes, Jacoby played good defense. Yes, Jacoby ran the bases well. No, Jacoby's team did not make the playoffs. I still think Verlander was clearly the best player in MLB for 2011.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Moon - you can't count a pitcher facing a batter as a 'PA' for the pitcher, because it's far easier for a pitcher to get a batter out than it is for a batter to get on base.  If the league OBP were .500, no pitcher would ever have more 'PAs' than a position player, and games would routinely be 5 hours long.  Also, the true offensive standouts would be on base 70% of the time, and the true aces would have ERAs around six, would never go more than six innings, and would never be considered for MVP.



     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Verlander deserves MVP

    In Response to Re: Verlander deserves MVP:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Verlander deserves MVP : Moon - you can't count a pitcher facing a batter as a 'PA' for the pitcher, because it's far easier for a pitcher to get a batter out than it is for a batter to get on base.  

    That has nothing to do with it. The opponents PAs are theoretically just as importnat as ours. The pitcher facing the opponent's PAs is just as important as our batters facint the opponent's pitchers. Verlander faced more batters than Ellsbury faced pitchers. To me, that puts to rest the argument that everyday players have a higher influence.

    If the league OBP were .500, no pitcher would ever have more 'PAs' than a position player, and games would routinely be 5 hours long.  

    The PAs a pitcher faces are the PAs the opponents get. A great pitcher limits the amount the opponents get in any given game, just a hitter forces more PAs for the offense by getting on base more than the average guy.

    Also, the true offensive standouts would be on base 70% of the time, and the true aces would have ERAs around six, would never go more than six innings, and would never be considered for MVP.
    Posted by slomag[/QUOTE]

    I don't think this makes sense to me. Look at the league OBP and SlG%. How far was Ellsbury above the league average? How far was Verlander below the league averages? They were pretty close, but Verlander faced more PAs, so to me, he gets the nod. Add to that the fact that his team made the playoffs and no pitcher has dominated other pitchers in the same year as much as Verlander did since Pedro in 2000.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Verlander deserves MVP

    In Response to Re: Verlander deserves MVP:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Verlander deserves MVP : I don't think this makes sense to me. Look at the league OBP and SlG%. How far was Ellsbury above the league average? How far was Verlander below the league averages? They were pretty close, but Verlander faced more PAs, so to me, he gets the nod. Add to that the fact that his team made the playoffs and no pitcher has dominated other pitchers in the same year as much as Verlander did since Pedro in 2000.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    If Ellsbury hit in all nine spots, you would have a good argument.  Or we switched pitchers after every batter you would have a good argument.  As it stands, though, the pitcher has a say in the number of 'PAs' he accrues, but the batter does not.  And really, the higher the 'PA's (or as a ratio to the innings pitched times 3) the worse the pitcher's performance.  In other words, Verlander pitched 251 innings, so he had to face 753 batters.  He did face 969 - so every 'PA' over 753 should count against him - not in his favor.  Pedro of 2000 faced only 817 batters, while Lackey of 2010 faced 930.



     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Verlander deserves MVP

    You are stretching it slo. So, assuming your numbers are accurate, Verlander allowed 216 runners and got 753 outs. Thats about a 78% success rate. Allowing 216 hitters to be successful can be held against Verlander, but when you compare his rate to that of other pitchers, you'll see how much he dominated.

    How many outs did Jacoby make in his 729 PAs?

    He made 465 outs + 8 for GIDP + 15  CS= 488 outs out of 729 PAs. That's about an out 67% of the time he got up to bat... hardly dominating at all.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Verlander deserves MVP

    In Response to Re: Verlander deserves MVP:
    [QUOTE]You are stretching it slo. So, assuming your numbers are accurate, Verlander allowed 216 runners and got 753 outs. Thats about a 78% success rate. Allowing 216 hitters to be successful can be held against Verlander, but when you compare his rate to that of other pitchers, you'll see how much he dominated. How many outs did Jacoby make in his 29 PAs? He made 465 outs + 8 for GIDP + 15  CS= 488 outs out of 729 PAs. That's about an out 67% of the time he got up to bat... hardly dominating at all.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I'm not arguing that Verlander wasn't dominating - I'm just saying that plate appearances cannot be considered equal among a pitcher and batter.  They don't have the same meaning, and to say you give the edge to Verlander because he had more plate appearances means you value his failures.  If another pitcher finished with the same ERA and IP as Verlander, but walked one more batter per game, he would have more plate appearances.  Would that make him more valuable in your opinion?

    I'm sure fielding has been covered already, but it's worth mentioning, too, that when a batter steps into the box it's one against 9.  So do you give the fielders partial credit for each defensive plate appearance?  If so, what is a center-fielder's share?  What is a catcher's share?  As a proponent of CERA, how many defensive plate appearances does Avila deserve over the course of the season?  Maybe he is your real MVP.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Verlander deserves MVP

    I'm not arguing that Verlander wasn't dominating - I'm just saying that plate appearances cannot be considered equal among a pitcher and batter.  

    They are to me. Every opponent's PA is just as important as every offensive PA, for the most part (not including clutch PAs, etc...)

    They don't have the same meaning, and to say you give the edge to Verlander because he had more plate appearances means you value his failures. 

    No, I do not think a pitcher should win MVP every year based on more PAs. I used the PA argument not to say that because Varlander faced more batters than jacoby faced pitchers he deserved the MVP, but instead, I used the PA argument against those who say beacuse he only pitches every 5th day, he shouldn't even be considered. That 5th day, he makes up for the other 4 by making a huge impact in 20-40 PAs by the opps.

     If another pitcher finished with the same ERA and IP as Verlander, but walked one more batter per game, he would have more plate appearances.  Would that make him more valuable in your opinion?

    No, see above. The same way that if jacoby had 969 PAs would change things either. I am using the PA argument to say that hitters and starting pitchers are on equal footing in terms of how much of an impact they have over a season. If Jacoby had his 20 points higher, and his team made the playoffs, I'd have no problem with those picking him over Verlander. I still would have voted for Verlander based on the clear disparity between him and other starting AL pitchers this year. His numbers were astounding.  

    I'm sure fielding has been covered already, but it's worth mentioning, too, that when a batter steps into the box it's one against 9.  So do you give the fielders partial credit for each defensive plate appearance?  If so, what is a center-fielder's share?  What is a catcher's share?  As a proponent of CERA, how many defensive plate appearances does Avila deserve over the course of the season?  Maybe he is your real MVP.

    The Tigers were an average fielding team, so Verlander was not helped or hurt by his teammates in all probability.

    I do count fielding, but do not think Jacoby was the best fielding CF'er in the AL last year. He has improved a lot, but still took a lot of wrong routes to fly balls and had a few late breaks. Overall his fielding was a plus and made the race closer than the offensive numbers showed. Hid base-running was not a significant plus in my eyes. He ran into a lot of outs above and beyong his high CS%. 
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Verlander deserves MVP

    In Response to Re: Verlander deserves MVP:
    [QUOTE]I'm not arguing that Verlander wasn't dominating - I'm just saying that plate appearances cannot be considered equal among a pitcher and batter.   They are to me. Every opponent's PA is just as important as every offensive PA, for the most part (not including clutch PAs, etc...) They don't have the same meaning, and to say you give the edge to Verlander because he had more plate appearances means you value his failures.  No, I do not think a pitcher should win MVP every year based on more PAs. I used the PA argument not to say that because Varlander faced more batters than jacoby faced pitchers he deserved the MVP, but instead, I used the PA argument against those who say beacuse he only pitches every 5th day, he shouldn't even be considered. That 5th day, he makes up for the other 4 by making a huge impact in 20-40 PAs by the opps.  If another pitcher finished with the same ERA and IP as Verlander, but walked one more batter per game, he would have more plate appearances.  Would that make him more valuable in your opinion? No, see above. The same way that if jacoby had 969 PAs would change things either. I am using the PA argument to say that hitters and starting pitchers are on equal footing in terms of how much of an impact they have over a season. If Jacoby had his 20 points higher, and his team made the playoffs, I'd have no problem with those picking him over Verlander. I still would have voted for Verlander based on the clear disparity between him and other starting AL pitchers this year. His numbers were astounding.   I'm sure fielding has been covered already, but it's worth mentioning, too, that when a batter steps into the box it's one against 9.  So do you give the fielders partial credit for each defensive plate appearance?  If so, what is a center-fielder's share?  What is a catcher's share?  As a proponent of CERA, how many defensive plate appearances does Avila deserve over the course of the season?  Maybe he is your real MVP. The Tigers were an average fielding team, so Verlander was not helped or hurt by his teammates in all probability. I do count fielding, but do not think Jacoby was the best fielding CF'er in the AL last year. He has improved a lot, but still took a lot of wrong routes to fly balls and had a few late breaks. Overall his fielding was a plus and made the race closer than the offensive numbers showed. Hid base-running was not a significant plus in my eyes. He ran into a lot of outs above and beyong his high CS%. 
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    OK, how do you value closers then?  Is it ridiculous to ever consider a closer as an MVP candidate, since he only pitches 60 - 70 innings / year?  Has Mariano Rivera ever been close to the most valuable pitcher on the Yankee staff?  Would he be just as valuable if he only pitched 22 games, but pitched three innings at a time?




     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Verlander deserves MVP

    In Response to Re: Verlander deserves MVP:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Verlander deserves MVP : OK, how do you value closers then?  Is it ridiculous to ever consider a closer as an MVP candidate, since he only pitches 60 - 70 innings / year?  

    I have never considered a closer for MVP, no, but I do not think they should be disqualified.

    Has Mariano Rivera ever been close to the most valuable pitcher on the Yankee staff?  

    If any closer in recent history would deserve consideration, Rivera comes closest, but even though his 60-70 IP might have been almost all high leverage, I don't think it has the same influence as a great starter going 210+ IP.

    Would he be just as valuable if he only pitched 22 games, but pitched three innings at a time?

    Probably not, since the 66 IP would probably not all be high leverage.
    Posted by slomag[/QUOTE]

    Now, a question for you: do you think Pedro deserved MVP in 1999 and or 2000? Can a starting pitcher ever deserve to win MVP?





     

Share