Victorino at leadoff?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Victorina at leadoff?

    I'm sure many of us probably feel the same way about Ellsbury's lack of production at the leadoff position.  More often than not it seems like we have one quick out followed by Victorino and Pedroia trying to get the inning going.

    Time to drop Ells down?  I think so, at least until he begins to show some signs of what we all know hes capable of.  I know Pede found it very difficult to lead off and not too many players are cut out for it but I would give Victorino a shot.  I say no harm no foul if he doesn't cut it because Ells is really struggling.

    Any thoughts?

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Victorina at leadoff?

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    I'm sure many of us probably feel the same way about Ellsbury's lack of production at the leadoff position.  More often than not it seems like we have one quick out followed by Victorino and Pedroia trying to get the inning going.

    Time to drop Ells down?  I think so, at least until he begins to show some signs of what we all know hes capable of.  I know Pede found it very difficult to lead off and not too many players are cut out for it but I would give Victorino a shot.  I say no harm no foul if he doesn't cut it because Ells is really struggling.

    Any thoughts?




    5th, inning perfect example of how well Pede and Shane compliment eachother.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    I mentioned this on another thread...Might be a good idea right now. His obp is up around .365-70 now I think

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    Good idea.  Besides, it's my opinion that Victorino will be here longer than Ellsbury will.

    What better time to get used to it than now?

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from VeniceSox. Show VeniceSox's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    I'm sure many of us probably feel the same way about Ellsbury's lack of production at the leadoff position.  More often than not it seems like we have one quick out followed by Victorino and Pedroia trying to get the inning going.

    Time to drop Ells down?  I think so, at least until he begins to show some signs of what we all know hes capable of.  I know Pede found it very difficult to lead off and not too many players are cut out for it but I would give Victorino a shot.  I say no harm no foul if he doesn't cut it because Ells is really struggling.

    Any thoughts?



    I was thinking that same thing tonight... Els is bringing nothing to the table... you cant have a leadoff hitter with an obp as low as he has....Els is doing nothing to increase his value for free agency...

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    Even before Friday's 1-for-5 performance, Jacoby Ellsbury's numbers so far this year had resembled his numbers from his injury-shortened 2012 season:

    2012 74 G, 323 PA, .271/.313/.370/.682, OPS+ 83

    2013 35 G, 165 PA, .263/.321/.368/.690, OPS+ 85

    Over the past two seasons combined:

    109 G, 488 PA, .268/.316/.369/.685, OPS+ 84

    Thirty-five games into his outlier 2011 season, Ellsbury had the following line:

    35 G, 145 PA, .291/.345/.463/.808

    The Steamer and ZIPS rest-of-season projections for Ellsbury point toward improvement:

    S 462 PA, .284/.339/.428/.767

    Z 388 PA, .280/.333/.434/.767

    As Ellsbury's arbitration hearing neared before his outstanding 2011 season, I used Michael Bourn as a reasonable comp. That Scott Boras client might still be among Ellsbury's closest comps as Ellsbury approaches his 30th birthday in September. Like Bourn, Ellsbury derives value from defense.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to hill55's comment:

    Even before Friday's 1-for-5 performance, Jacoby Ellsbury's numbers so far this year had resembled his numbers from his injury-shortened 2012 season:

    2012 74 G, 323 PA, .271/.313/.370/.682, OPS+ 83

    2013 35 G, 165 PA, .263/.321/.368/.690, OPS+ 85

    Over the past two seasons combined:

    109 G, 488 PA, .268/.316/.369/.685, OPS+ 84

    Thirty-five games into his outlier 2011 season, Ellsbury had the following line:

    35 G, 145 PA, .291/.345/.463/.808

    The Steamer and ZIPS rest-of-season projections for Ellsbury point toward improvement:

    S 462 PA, .284/.339/.428/.767

    Z 388 PA, .280/.333/.434/.767

    As Ellsbury's arbitration hearing neared before his outstanding 2011 season, I used Michael Bourn as a reasonable comp. That Scott Boras client might still be among Ellsbury's closest comps as Ellsbury approaches his 30th birthday in September. Like Bourn, Ellsbury derives value from defense.




    You know your stuff, so what's your guess as to whether or not he'll return next year? 

    As you can read, I don't think there's a snowballs' chance in hell that he'll be back.

     
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  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from stan17. Show stan17's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    I wouldn't have a problem w/ it. If we did that I'm wondering if people would rather see Pedroia thru Napoli slide down one spot or just move Pedroia to the 2 spot and put someone else in the 3 hole. 

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    Where are all those posters that wanted us to lock Ells up at $15-20M a year for several years?

     

    Yes. Put Shane up 1st. Nava or Gomes up 2nd. Papi up 3rd. Pedey 4th. Naps stays in the 5 slot. Ellsbury 9th until he shows he deserves otherwise.

    Even Drew and Salty are getting on base more than Jacoby. Nuff said.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Where are all those posters that wanted us to lock Ells up at $15-20M a year for several years?

     

    Yes. Put Shane up 1st. Nava or Gomes up 2nd. Papi up 3rd. Pedey 4th. Naps stays in the 5 slot. Ellsbury 9th until he shows he deserves otherwise.

    Even Drew and Salty are getting on base more than Jacoby. Nuff said.




    Absolutely..

    What's your opinion, Moon?  Do you think he'll be back?  If my altzeimer's memory is correct, I think you think not..correct?

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from sportsbozo1. Show sportsbozo1's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to hill55's comment:

    Even before Friday's 1-for-5 performance, Jacoby Ellsbury's numbers so far this year had resembled his numbers from his injury-shortened 2012 season:

    2012 74 G, 323 PA, .271/.313/.370/.682, OPS+ 83

    2013 35 G, 165 PA, .263/.321/.368/.690, OPS+ 85

    Over the past two seasons combined:

    109 G, 488 PA, .268/.316/.369/.685, OPS+ 84

    Thirty-five games into his outlier 2011 season, Ellsbury had the following line:

    35 G, 145 PA, .291/.345/.463/.808

    The Steamer and ZIPS rest-of-season projections for Ellsbury point toward improvement:

    S 462 PA, .284/.339/.428/.767

    Z 388 PA, .280/.333/.434/.767

    As Ellsbury's arbitration hearing neared before his outstanding 2011 season, I used Michael Bourn as a reasonable comp. That Scott Boras client might still be among Ellsbury's closest comps as Ellsbury approaches his 30th birthday in September. Like Bourn, Ellsbury derives value from defense.

    He might derive value from you as a defensive CF but not from me. He takes the long route too many times. He steals balls that would have been easily caught by the other outfielders. He is an average to above average CF but by no means does he qualify as great.


     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:
    Even before Friday's 1-for-5 performance, Jacoby Ellsbury's numbers so far this year had resembled his numbers from his injury-shortened 2012 season:

    2012 74 G, 323 PA, .271/.313/.370/.682, OPS+ 83

    2013 35 G, 165 PA, .263/.321/.368/.690, OPS+ 85

    Over the past two seasons combined:

    109 G, 488 PA, .268/.316/.369/.685, OPS+ 84

    Thirty-five games into his outlier 2011 season, Ellsbury had the following line:

    35 G, 145 PA, .291/.345/.463/.808

    The Steamer and ZIPS rest-of-season projections for Ellsbury point toward improvement:

    S 462 PA, .284/.339/.428/.767

    Z 388 PA, .280/.333/.434/.767

    As Ellsbury's arbitration hearing neared before his outstanding 2011 season, I used Michael Bourn as a reasonable comp. That Scott Boras client might still be among Ellsbury's closest comps as Ellsbury approaches his 30th birthday in September. Like Bourn, Ellsbury derives value from defense.

    You know your stuff, so what's your guess as to whether or not he'll return next year? 

    As you can read, I don't think there's a snowballs' chance in hell that he'll be back.


    I suspect Jacoby Ellsbury will go to the team that gives him the best contract, although he could give a slight discount to the Red Sox or another contender.

    In light of recent long-term contracts around baseball, I would be reluctant to offer a lucrative long-term contract to any player past his 30th birthday.

    Scott Boras landed a four-year, $48 million contract for 30-year-old Michael Bourn (with a vesting option for a fifth year at $12 million). That might be in the ballpark for Ellsbury's next contract.

     
  14. This post has been removed.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    If he weren't Jacoby Ellsbury he wouldn't be hitting leadoff now.  It's his reputation that keeps him there; that and the thought that when (not "if") he improves he is the quintessential leadoff hitter. 

    I see no downside to moving him down in the order.  If he improves while batting in the 6-8 spot he can be moved back up, and if he doesn't improve.... well, no team needs a leadoff hitter with the numbers Ells has now.

    If Ells doesn't improve this whole thing is going to 'hit the fan' when he becomes a FA.  Will teams - the Sox included - think this year is an aberration and pay him >$10MM/year, or will he get what players with his offensive numbers but good defensive skills usually get? This cannot be a pleasant situation for Scott Boras, which almost makes Ells down numbers worth it.  :-)  

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    Vic now has a .375 OBP and should be leading off. He has got on from bunting his way on, taking a walk, and consistently hitting the ball. Also taking advantage of mistakes and being an incredibly smart baserunner finds himself standing on 2nd base more often than not.

    Not even a debate here, He has EARNED the leadoff spot.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Where are all those posters that wanted us to lock Ells up at $15-20M a year for several years?

     

    Yes. Put Shane up 1st. Nava or Gomes up 2nd. Papi up 3rd. Pedey 4th. Naps stays in the 5 slot. Ellsbury 9th until he shows he deserves otherwise.

    Even Drew and Salty are getting on base more than Jacoby. Nuff said.

     




     

    Absolutely..

    What's your opinion, Moon?  Do you think he'll be back?  If my altzeimer's memory is correct, I think you think not..correct?



    I don't know what Ben thinks, but since he traded away the similar profile Crawford, I never felt Ellsbury would be back. That is the main reason I wanted Jacoby traded, so we could get better longterm value than just the comp pick.

    If Ellsbury had a big year this year, I'd still not want us to signn him at anywhere near what he'd end up getting. Our budget is high, but limited and already near the threshhold. I don't see tying up 1/8th to 1/10th of the total budget on Ellsbury- I never have,

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:
    Even before Friday's 1-for-5 performance, Jacoby Ellsbury's numbers so far this year had resembled his numbers from his injury-shortened 2012 season:

     

    2012 74 G, 323 PA, .271/.313/.370/.682, OPS+ 83

    2013 35 G, 165 PA, .263/.321/.368/.690, OPS+ 85

    Over the past two seasons combined:

    109 G, 488 PA, .268/.316/.369/.685, OPS+ 84

    Thirty-five games into his outlier 2011 season, Ellsbury had the following line:

    35 G, 145 PA, .291/.345/.463/.808

    The Steamer and ZIPS rest-of-season projections for Ellsbury point toward improvement:

    S 462 PA, .284/.339/.428/.767

    Z 388 PA, .280/.333/.434/.767

    As Ellsbury's arbitration hearing neared before his outstanding 2011 season, I used Michael Bourn as a reasonable comp. That Scott Boras client might still be among Ellsbury's closest comps as Ellsbury approaches his 30th birthday in September. Like Bourn, Ellsbury derives value from defense.

    You know your stuff, so what's your guess as to whether or not he'll return next year? 

    As you can read, I don't think there's a snowballs' chance in hell that he'll be back.


    I suspect Jacoby Ellsbury will go to the team that gives him the best contract, although he could give a slight discount to the Red Sox or another contender.

     

    In light of recent long-term contracts around baseball, I would be reluctant to offer a lucrative long-term contract to any player past his 30th birthday.

    Scott Boras landed a four-year, $48 million contract for 30-year-old Michael Bourn (with a vesting option for a fifth year at $12 million). That might be in the ballpark for Ellsbury's next contract.



    I would not offer even that.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    Vic now has a .375 OBP and should be leading off. He has got on from bunting his way on, taking a walk, and consistently hitting the ball. Also taking advantage of mistakes and being an incredibly smart baserunner finds himself standing on 2nd base more often than not.

    Not even a debate here, He has EARNED the leadoff spot.

     



    I didn't know you mentioned this already southpaw sorry.  I'm glad most of us agree because it looks like Shane and Pede are out of the same mold.  Shane may not like leading off any more than Pede did but lets at least try it out.  With that said, I would keep Pede right behind Shane at the two spot, Nava 3rd, Papi fourth, then Nap, Middy, Salty, Ells and Drew.  Even if Ells starts producing I would keep him in the lower part of the order unless Shane really struggles.

     

    I would put Gomes in the 3rd spot like Nava when he plays if his OBP stays above average.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    Vic now has a .375 OBP and should be leading off. He has got on from bunting his way on, taking a walk, and consistently hitting the ball. Also taking advantage of mistakes and being an incredibly smart baserunner finds himself standing on 2nd base more often than not.

    Not even a debate here, He has EARNED the leadoff spot.



    I agree, and also Nava has earned the 2 slot at least until he proves otherwise.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    Vic now has a .375 OBP and should be leading off. He has got on from bunting his way on, taking a walk, and consistently hitting the ball. Also taking advantage of mistakes and being an incredibly smart baserunner finds himself standing on 2nd base more often than not.

    Not even a debate here, He has EARNED the leadoff spot.

     



    I agree, and also Nava has earned the 2 slot at least until he proves otherwise.

     

     




    I wouldn't break up the Shane/Pede combo moon.  Maybe Nava, Gomes and possibly even Carp 3rd?

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    Last time Ellsbury was dropped down and not because of an injury was I think 2009, 4 years ago.  2010 a lost season, 2011 a stellar one, and last year pretty much lost to injury. 

    While his low OBP certainly would justifiy dropping him and leading with Victorino, I have problems with that.  First, Ellsbury is now a veteran with some standing--not at all the same guy who needed to bat 8th or 9th in 2009.  Second, I think the current lineup has the best potential with Ells, Vic, and Pedey at the top, Ortiz, Napoli, and usually Nava in the middle, and Salty, Middlebrooks and Drew at the bottom.   Third, Ortiz is in a slump right now and not a good choice to bat 3d.  In fact, right now the Sox don't really a have a classic 3d slotter unless it is Ortiz.  So Pedroia is the best choice after Ortiz.  Fourth, Ellsbury led the team in hits for most of the season until about three games ago and he still leads in SB's by a bunch.  Fifth, the Sox are like 5th in MLB in runs scored.  The lineup is slumping but not broken, and for big chunks of the season it has worked pretty well.  Once Ortiz returned, Farrell stuck with the same first five except when Victorino was out. 

    If Ellsbury is dropped, I would be tempted to move Nava up to 2d or 3d, then Ortiz and Napoli in 4th and 5th. 

     

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

     

    Last time Ellsbury was dropped down and not because of an injury was I think 2009, 4 years ago.  2010 a lost season, 2011 a stellar one, and last year pretty much lost to injury. 

    While his low OBP certainly would justifiy dropping him and leading with Victorino, I have problems with that.  First, Ellsbury is now a veteran with some standing--not at all the same guy who needed to bat 8th or 9th in 2009.  Second, I think the current lineup has the best potential with Ells, Vic, and Pedey at the top, Ortiz, Napoli, and usually Nava in the middle, and Salty, Middlebrooks and Drew at the bottom.   Third, Ortiz is in a slump right now and not a good choice to bat 3d.  In fact, right now the Sox don't really a have a classic 3d slotter unless it is Ortiz.  So Pedroia is the best choice after Ortiz.  Fourth, Ellsbury led the team in hits for most of the season until about three games ago and he still leads in SB's by a bunch.  Fifth, the Sox are like 5th in MLB in runs scored.  The lineup is slumping but not broken, and for big chunks of the season it has worked pretty well.  Once Ortiz returned, Farrell stuck with the same first five except when Victorino was out. 

    If Ellsbury is dropped, I would be tempted to move Nava up to 2d or 3d, then Ortiz and Napoli in 4th and 5th. 

     




    As long as Nava and Gomes keep reaching base max I would hit them both 3rd.  By dropping Ells you basically still have Drew, Victorino and Pede following him.  I wouldn't feel bad about an disrespect to Ells by dropping him.  Hes playing like its deserved and won't be here next year in my opinion anyway.  Here is my thought, if Ells begins to hit along with others in their new slot why move them back again?

    I also wouldn't be surprised to see Drew end up with a higher OBP than Ells the rest of the way.  I would love to see Ells learn how to bunt himself OB more, its something that could really help his game and possibly make him a great leadoff guy. 

    He has the speed!

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from bosoxmal. Show bosoxmal's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    I'm sure many of us probably feel the same way about Ellsbury's lack of production at the leadoff position.  More often than not it seems like we have one quick out followed by Victorino and Pedroia trying to get the inning going.

    Time to drop Ells down?  I think so, at least until he begins to show some signs of what we all know hes capable of.  I know Pede found it very difficult to lead off and not too many players are cut out for it but I would give Victorino a shot.  I say no harm no foul if he doesn't cut it because Ells is really struggling.

    Any thoughts?


    Yes, I have some thoughts. I would like to see both Ortiz and Napoli dropped to about the 7th and 8th spots, and Pedroia, Nava and Victorino hitting in the 3,4,6 spots. Back-to-back switch hitters who are hot (both ways) in the middle of the line-up? Fantastic. And it takes some of that pressure off the two sluggers.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Kingface12. Show Kingface12's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    This is a tough one.  I think I have to agree that the lineup right now has the most POTENTIAL to score the most runs.  I really like Vic as the 2 guy because he handles the bat I think the best on the team and can move people along and get a clutch hit when needed.  Pedey is PERFECT in the 3 spot as well.  If you drop Ells and move Vic up that could disrupt that solid 2-3 situation.  I don't think it's panic time quite yet.  I'm a little more concerned at the middle of the lineup with Ortiz, Naps, Nava and WMB.  All are VERY streaky hitters.  When they are all 'on' at the same time...it's an amazing thing to watch.....when they are 'off'....OUCH.

    The only lineup to me that makes sense if there needs to be a change at leadoff is:

    Vic

    Nava

    Pedey

    Ortiz

    Naps

    Ells

    WMB

    Salty

    Drew

     

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