Victorino at leadoff?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to bosoxmal's comment:

     

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

     

    I'm sure many of us probably feel the same way about Ellsbury's lack of production at the leadoff position.  More often than not it seems like we have one quick out followed by Victorino and Pedroia trying to get the inning going.

    Time to drop Ells down?  I think so, at least until he begins to show some signs of what we all know hes capable of.  I know Pede found it very difficult to lead off and not too many players are cut out for it but I would give Victorino a shot.  I say no harm no foul if he doesn't cut it because Ells is really struggling.

    Any thoughts?

     


    Yes, I have some thoughts. I would like to see both Ortiz and Napoli dropped to about the 7th and 8th spots, and Pedroia, Nava and Victorino hitting in the 3,4,6 spots. Back-to-back switch hitters who are hot (both ways) in the middle of the line-up? Fantastic. And it takes some of that pressure off the two sluggers.

     

     



    Who leads off and bats second?  The whole point is to get your best OB guys and some speed at the top of the lineup to begin every game.  Right now Ells and Middy are the weakest links in our starting lineup in my opinion.  I never thought I would exclude Salty in that thought but thrilled to see him producing. 

     

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to Kingface12's comment:

    This is a tough one.  I think I have to agree that the lineup right now has the most POTENTIAL to score the most runs.  I really like Vic as the 2 guy because he handles the bat I think the best on the team and can move people along and get a clutch hit when needed.  Pedey is PERFECT in the 3 spot as well.  If you drop Ells and move Vic up that could disrupt that solid 2-3 situation.  I don't think it's panic time quite yet.  I'm a little more concerned at the middle of the lineup with Ortiz, Naps, Nava and WMB.  All are VERY streaky hitters.  When they are all 'on' at the same time...it's an amazing thing to watch.....when they are 'off'....OUCH.

    The only lineup to me that makes sense if there needs to be a change at leadoff is:

    Vic

    Nava

    Pedey

    Ortiz

    Naps

    Ells

    WMB

    Salty

    Drew



    I would be fine with giving Nava the 2 spot but love the way Shane and Pede are working back to back.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    Vic now has a .375 OBP and should be leading off. He has got on from bunting his way on, taking a walk, and consistently hitting the ball. Also taking advantage of mistakes and being an incredibly smart baserunner finds himself standing on 2nd base more often than not.

    Not even a debate here, He has EARNED the leadoff spot.

     



    I didn't know you mentioned this already southpaw sorry.  I'm glad most of us agree because it looks like Shane and Pede are out of the same mold.  Shane may not like leading off any more than Pede did but lets at least try it out.  With that said, I would keep Pede right behind Shane at the two spot, Nava 3rd, Papi fourth, then Nap, Middy, Salty, Ells and Drew.  Even if Ells starts producing I would keep him in the lower part of the order unless Shane really struggles.

     

    I would put Gomes in the 3rd spot like Nava when he plays if his OBP stays above average.




    agree 100% craze. nava is a solid idea for #3 with his good OBP and showing some "pop" in his bat this year more than past years. Gomes as well. Ive always said if Drew was going to be in the lower part of the order, he should bat #9 becuase hes the best option to turn the order over.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    Vic now has a .375 OBP and should be leading off. He has got on from bunting his way on, taking a walk, and consistently hitting the ball. Also taking advantage of mistakes and being an incredibly smart baserunner finds himself standing on 2nd base more often than not.

    Not even a debate here, He has EARNED the leadoff spot.

     



    I didn't know you mentioned this already southpaw sorry.  I'm glad most of us agree because it looks like Shane and Pede are out of the same mold.  Shane may not like leading off any more than Pede did but lets at least try it out.  With that said, I would keep Pede right behind Shane at the two spot, Nava 3rd, Papi fourth, then Nap, Middy, Salty, Ells and Drew.  Even if Ells starts producing I would keep him in the lower part of the order unless Shane really struggles.

     

    I would put Gomes in the 3rd spot like Nava when he plays if his OBP stays above average.

     




    agree 100% craze. nava is a solid idea for #3 with his good OBP and showing some "pop" in his bat this year more than past years. Gomes as well. Ive always said if Drew was going to be in the lower part of the order, he should bat #9 becuase hes the best option to turn the order over.

     

     




    It's certainlty worth a shot southpaw and I agree on Nava.  Farrell shouldn't feel disrespectful in any way by dropping Ells and keeping him there, even if he catches fire as long as our lineup is producing.  I'm sure Ells would be a bit upset but it may light a fire in him.  He's not going to be worth much to us, or as a FA until he produces somewhere.  Who knows, dropping him down the order may help ease the pressure a bit and the club offensively.    

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    Ells has a better career OBP and better speed.  There a nice advantage to having someone on to distract the pitcher, as well as opening a hole between 1st and 2nd.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

    Ells has a better career OBP and better speed.  There a nice advantage to having someone on to distract the pitcher, as well as opening a hole between 1st and 2nd.

     



    I agree to an extent Joe but hes not hitting well or taking advantage of his speed.  You never see Ells try and drop a bunt down to get things going.  I never said he wasn't our most ideal leadoff guy, or disagree hes a huge advantage if hes hitting.  He just looks like a guy more content with swinging for the fence hoping to regain 2011

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    Actually , the best thing would be to readjust your batting order top to bottom every day, depending on who is hot , who is not and the opposing starter. Problem is , the players would not like it. Maybe that should not be a consideration , but unfortunately , it is.   

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    I'm not sure Nava's "pop" will hold up, but his high OBP has been pretty consistent over his career in MLB and the minors.

    I'd go with this until one of these guys starts to falter or slump:

        vs RHPs  vs LHPs

    1)     Victorino

    2)       Nava

    3)  Ortiz      Pedey

    4)  Pedey    Ortiz

    5)      Napoli

    6)  Ellsb      Gomes (Vict to CF)

    7)  Drew      Ross

    8)  Salty      Midd

    9)  Midd       Drew

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I'm not sure Nava's "pop" will hold up, but his high OBP has been pretty consistent over his career in MLB and the minors.

    I'd go with this until one of these guys starts to falter or slump:

        vs RHPs  vs LHPs

    1)     Victorino

    2)       Nava

    3)  Ortiz      Pedey

    4)  Pedey    Ortiz

    5)      Napoli

    6)  Ellsb      Gomes (Vict to CF)

    7)  Drew      Ross

    8)  Salty      Midd

    9)  Midd       Drew




    Maybe not but we have to agree watching Victorino drop a bunt down with ease like today as opposed to Ells "with more speed" never even trying to makes Shane a better option at leadoff.  Ells grounds out leading off a game almost as often as Nap strikes out :)

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from devildavid. Show devildavid's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    I'd go with

    1) Pedroia - On base machine so far

    2) Victorino - Good OBP, great bunter

    3 )Nava - Overall good hitter with some power

    That's my top 3.

    Drop Ells to 8 or 9 slot.

     

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to devildavid's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'd go with

    1) Pedroia - On base machine so far

    2) Victorino - Good OBP, great bunter

    3 )Nava - Overall good hitter with some power

    That's my top 3.

    Drop Ells to 8 or 9 slot.

     /QUOTE]

    We tried this in the past, Pede has publically stated he doesn't like leadoff and has struggled trying.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to devildavid's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'd go with

    1) Pedroia - On base machine so far

    2) Victorino - Good OBP, great bunter

    3 )Nava - Overall good hitter with some power

    That's my top 3.

    Drop Ells to 8 or 9 slot.

     /QUOTE]

    We tried this in the past, Pede has publically stated he doesn't like leadoff and has struggled trying.




    Vics .375 OBP is plenty good to leadoff, plus he can lay down a great bunt.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to devildavid's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'd go with

    1) Pedroia - On base machine so far

    2) Victorino - Good OBP, great bunter

    3 )Nava - Overall good hitter with some power

    That's my top 3.

    Drop Ells to 8 or 9 slot.

     /QUOTE]

    We tried this in the past, Pede has publically stated he doesn't like leadoff and has struggled trying.




    yeah..why even put pedroia in leadoff when you have victorino?

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from devildavid. Show devildavid's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to devildavid's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'd go with

    1) Pedroia - On base machine so far

    2) Victorino - Good OBP, great bunter

    3 )Nava - Overall good hitter with some power

    That's my top 3.

    Drop Ells to 8 or 9 slot.

     /QUOTE]

    We tried this in the past, Pede has publically stated he doesn't like leadoff and has struggled trying.



    If only he could ovecome that because his ability to get on base is phenomenal so far this season. That's what you need most from a leadoff hitter.

    If not, I would be happy with Victorino leading off. Just think that Pedey is a better long term bet to get on base consistently.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to devildavid's comment:

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

     

    In response to devildavid's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'd go with

    1) Pedroia - On base machine so far

    2) Victorino - Good OBP, great bunter

    3 )Nava - Overall good hitter with some power

    That's my top 3.

    Drop Ells to 8 or 9 slot.

     /QUOTE]

    We tried this in the past, Pede has publically stated he doesn't like leadoff and has struggled trying.

     



    If only he could ovecome that because his ability to get on base is phenomenal so far this season. That's what you need most from a leadoff hitter.

     

    If not, I would be happy with Victorino leading off. Just think that Pedey is a better long term bet to get on base consistently.



    I agree Pede is the man

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from bosoxmal. Show bosoxmal's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to Kingface12's comment:

    This is a tough one.  I think I have to agree that the lineup right now has the most POTENTIAL to score the most runs.  I really like Vic as the 2 guy because he handles the bat I think the best on the team and can move people along and get a clutch hit when needed.  Pedey is PERFECT in the 3 spot as well.  If you drop Ells and move Vic up that could disrupt that solid 2-3 situation.  I don't think it's panic time quite yet.  I'm a little more concerned at the middle of the lineup with Ortiz, Naps, Nava and WMB.  All are VERY streaky hitters.  When they are all 'on' at the same time...it's an amazing thing to watch.....when they are 'off'....OUCH.

    The only lineup to me that makes sense if there needs to be a change at leadoff is:

    Vic

    Nava

    Pedey

    Ortiz

    Naps

    Ells

    WMB

    Salty

    Drew


    Drop Ortiz and Napoli down to 7 and 8. Put the 2 switch hitters ar 4 and 5.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    Believe it or not, it's a fact that, on average, the #3 hitter comes up with fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters.   The #3 hitter comes up so often with 2 outs and no runners on that putting your best hitter in that spot is a mistake.

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    Believe it or not, it's a fact that, on average, the #3 hitter comes up with fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters.   The #3 hitter comes up so often with 2 outs and no runners on that putting your best hitter in that spot is a mistake.

     



    It might depend on the OBPs of the 1 & 2 hitters, but also the 3 man gets up after the bottom of the oder has made outs as well.

    In 2004, Papi had 421 PAs in the 3 slot/Manny 217. Manny had 445 in the 4 slot and Papi 224. They both ended up with almost identical PAs with RISP (198-197 Manny), but Papi actually had more PAs with men on base than Manny 331-322. Manny had more PAs with no men on base by 341 to 338.

    Note: I picked that year because I thought they both had about the same PAs and were locked into batting slots. I didn't remember Manny batting 3rd that much back then.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Where are all those posters that wanted us to lock Ells up at $15-20M a year for several years?

     

    Yes. Put Shane up 1st. Nava or Gomes up 2nd. Papi up 3rd. Pedey 4th. Naps stays in the 5 slot. Ellsbury 9th until he shows he deserves otherwise.

    Even Drew and Salty are getting on base more than Jacoby. Nuff said.



    But moon, isnt putting him 9th a little like leaving him where he is? After the first inning, hes going to be batting leadoff again when he preceeds the top of the order. We had this same argument a couple years ago about Crawford. Guys like Andrewmitch screamed and cussed if you suggested batting him leadoff, then turned around and suggested batting him 9th. Your leadoff batter is only guaranteed to bat leadoff one time. Id be more in favor of moving him to 6th or 7th, especially since Middlebrooks is showing signs of waking up. Move him up a notch, and put Ellsbury behind him.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to TheExaminer's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Where are all those posters that wanted us to lock Ells up at $15-20M a year for several years?

     

    Yes. Put Shane up 1st. Nava or Gomes up 2nd. Papi up 3rd. Pedey 4th. Naps stays in the 5 slot. Ellsbury 9th until he shows he deserves otherwise.

    Even Drew and Salty are getting on base more than Jacoby. Nuff said.

     



    But moon, isnt putting him 9th a little like leaving him where he is? After the first inning, hes going to be batting leadoff again when he preceeds the top of the order. We had this same argument a couple years ago about Crawford. Guys like Andrewmitch screamed and cussed if you suggested batting him leadoff, then turned around and suggested batting him 9th. Your leadoff batter is only guaranteed to bat leadoff one time. Id be more in favor of moving him to 6th or 7th, especially since Middlebrooks is showing signs of waking up. Move him up a notch, and put Ellsbury behind him.

     



    I like him 9th since the back-to-back speed guys can manufacture runs. Also, batting 9th vs 7th means about 30 more PAs for a better hitter over a full season.

    Ross, Salty, Drew and others are hitting better now. 

    I'd even think of benching Ells vs LHPs and put SV in CF and Nava/Gomes in the corner OF slots.

    Gomes has always killed lefties and has a .935 OPS this year in that spli.

    Nava has not always done well vs LHPs, but so far he's at .879.

    Ellsbury's .504 OPS vs LHPs is just way too unacceptable, and the .262 OBP for a leadoff hitter is absurd. (He's at .349 vs RHPs, so he should play vs them, and I wouldn't be against batting him higher than 9th with that decent OBP.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    We talk a lot about OBP , but our bigger problem seems to be driving in the runners who are on base. Right now , it looks to me that they are pressing. I am seeing some really poor at bats with runners in scoring position.  

     
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  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    Vic now has a .375 OBP and should be leading off. He has got on from bunting his way on, taking a walk, and consistently hitting the ball. Also taking advantage of mistakes and being an incredibly smart baserunner finds himself standing on 2nd base more often than not.

    Not even a debate here, He has EARNED the leadoff spot.

     



    I agree, and also Nava has earned the 2 slot at least until he proves otherwise.

     

     




    I wouldn't break up the Shane/Pede combo moon.  Maybe Nava, Gomes and possibly even Carp 3rd?

     



    ShaVic, Pedroia, Ortiz, Nap, Nava, WMB, Ells, Salty, Drew

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    It might depend on the OBPs of the 1 & 2 hitters, but also the 3 man gets up after the bottom of the oder has made outs as well.


    In 2004, Papi had 421 PAs in the 3 slot/Manny 217. Manny had 445 in the 4 slot and Papi 224. They both ended up with almost identical PAs with RISP (198-197 Manny), but Papi actually had more PAs with men on base than Manny 331-322. Manny had more PAs with no men on base by 341 to 338.

    Note: I picked that year because I thought they both had about the same PAs and were locked into batting slots. I didn't remember Manny batting 3rd that much back then.



    1. Valid point about the OBP of the #1 and #2 hitters. 

    2. Sure, there are going to be exceptions.  But the research still suggests that the #3 hole is not as important as most people believe.  The #1,#2, #4, and possibly #5 slots are more important.

    3.  The numbers don't quite add up because Papi also had 24 PAs batting in slots other than the 3 or 4, which are included in the totals for PAs with men on base versus no men on base, not that it makes a significant difference. 

    However, since those PAs are not broken down by which batting slot each batter was in, it is possible that the numbers are disproportional enough that the #3 slot did come up more often with no runners on base. 

    4.  My main point is still that unless managers are willing to do away with conventional thinking altogether, and it is obvious that neither they nor fans are willing to do so, the tweaks to the line up that are regularly debated are not going to make much difference. 

    It's been said that a manager can pull his lineup out of a hat every day and win as many games over a season as he would by sending out his traditional line up.

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Victorino at leadoff?

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    My main point is still that unless managers are willing to do away with conventional thinking altogether, and it is obvious that neither they nor fans are willing to do so, the tweaks to the line up that are regularly debated are not going to make much difference. 

    It's been said that a manager can pull his lineup out of a hat every day and win as many games over a season as he would by sending out his traditional line up.



    So what is the best lineup configuration?

     

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