Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92
posted at 8/12/2011 8:39 PM EDT
791, I thought you disliked ERA as much as I do.
The point that I was making was the team was 11-5 in spite of Wakefield, not because of it. The only reason they're doing so well in his starts is because of the number of runs he's receiving in run support. In this case, his ERA is relevant as a result in that he's allowing 4.92 runs per nine innings
1) Talking in absolutes is one reason danny is jumping on your case
2) I have shown how Wake has had more of his inherited runners allowed to score than other Sox starters. I have also documented what I percieve to be an inordinate amount of "cheap runs" allowed this year (bunt hits, dropped flyballs for hits, wrong angles taken by OF'era, and many sac fly runs after seeing eys singles, advanced runner by groundouts, etc..
3) Most importantly, yes he has gotten run support, but don't you think 11 wins is not a fluke for a pitcher who has allowed 3 or less ERs in 9 of 16 starts, and 4 ER in 2 other starts? True, if he pitched for Seattle, he might be 3-13 with that record, but then again his ERA might be 3.55.
Look at percentage of inherited runners allowed compared to others.
Look at all the cheap hits and misplayed balls that were labelled hits compared to others.
Wake lets up a lot of HRs. That is going to hurt his FIP numbers.
The problem with your argument (at least on the fielding side) is that he's allowing hits on only 26.2% of the balls put into play. His career rate is 27.4%. Based on the so-called cheap hits being allowed, he's actually faring better than he has in the past. As for errors, well those are entirely subjective. I think errors should include poor routes and other fielding mistakes that don't include a bobbled ball and errant throw
I agree. I know you have issues with personal observations as "evidence". I totally understand why. I really do not have any reason to inflate Wake's skillset. I'm not really even a big fan of his, but the guy has had a ton of weak hits and bunt hits this year. I have shown game by game (earlier) how many of his runs have scored. I know every pitcher has cheap runs allowed: it is part of the game, but in my opinion, Wake has had more....much more. (I have watched every inning of every Sox game this year). .
As for the inherited runners scored issue, I'm not sure where I'd find that data without mining it manually. (FWIW, I've asked my contacts, and will try to get back to you.) His 60.5% strand rate is low, but that number includes all runners, not just the ones on base after he gets pulled from the game. Unfortunately, that's one of the crappy things about ERA. Wake is partially, but not wholly responsible for those runners. The reliever should get partially charged for allowing the runners to score
I manually did his, but not the other starters on the Sox. There have been 2 runs allowed when Wake left with a man of 1st and 2 outs. I think there were 3 other allowed. (It's on a previous page)..
As for the homers allowed affecting his FIP, I'm not sure I see your point. Home runs, strikeouts and walks are the only factors considered. If he gives up a lot of home runs, his FIP will be higher than if he doesn't. xFIP attempts to normalize that number using the league average HR/FB rate (which I'm not sure I like), but even that only brings his estimated ERA to 4.69. It's better, but not markedly so.
Either way, even with all of things we discussed, his true talent level is somewhere in the 4.75 range. Still far below average
But not below average for an AL 4th or 5th starter. That has been my point. Wake is a 6th starter doing a fine job as 5th starter as he is pitching like an avg AL 4th starter. It surprises me tha some here choose to criticize our 6th starter who is doing the job of an average 4th starter.
I understand your position on xFIP. I think it is a valuable tool. I know you have never advoacate it as the only stat, but I happen to not value it as highly. (I think I am somewhere inbetween you and harness on that issue) Take a look at AL xFIP numbers this year. Here are the top 84 starters (40+ IP and 6+ GS) in the AL. Basically, the list represents 6 starters x 14 AL teams. I have shown where he ranks in ERA and WHIP. How does Wake rank in x FIP?
Miller: 82nd (Aceves would have been 79th had he had 6 GS)
Wake: 74th (Only 5 behind Jeremy Hellickson) Basically the 4th best sixth starter in the AL in this category.
How about tERA?
Wake 65th (Basically a lower tier 5th starter).
If you put all these three stats and metrics with his WHIP placement, I'd say he has shown he is at least a very good 5th starter on average in the AL, and maybe a low tier 4th starter..
How about starting pitcher's WAR?
Wake 70th (basically the best 6th starter in the AL)..