Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92
posted at 8/10/2011 6:15 PM EDT
In Response to Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92
In Response to Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92 : Appears your an proponent of Defensive Zone Rating?
Posted by beavis
I like using many tools to rate a fielder.
UZR/150 is a better tool than just using Fldg%, but is flawed.
RF/9 is flawed.
The Fielding Bible is flawed.
The GG voting system is a joke.
I use my own personal observations, and I have watched every Sox game this year and about 99% of all Sox games since 1981. I watch several other teams play, but not enough to make comparative judgements without the aid of stats, metrics, and expert opinions.
I assume you are relating this to my discussion of some cheap runs allowed by Wake and releivers who allowed several of his runners to score.
1) It's not like Wake left the games with bases loaded and no outs and releivers let a run or two score; we are talking 2 outs-man on first.
2) I'm not just talking about Youk's booted non-error play, drew's "non-error" dropped fly ball, or Jacoby's wrong route taken on a catchable ball that all led to runs, but also the many many bunt hits, seeing eye singles, runners then advancing on ground balls, and later scoring on a sac fly. Yes, these are legitimate "earned runs", but some are more earned than others, and I feel Wake has more borderline "earned runs" than other starters on this staff. Yes, he also lets up more HRs/9 than any other starter, so one could argue it all evens out. I realize this is just my opinion, but I do not think I am showing favoritism towards Wake or being a "homer" here. I just have not seen the same extent of cheap runs and inherited runs allowed to score with other Sox starters.
3) I have never been a big fan of ERA as "the stat of choice". This is not a cherry-picking adventure like softy does. I do not change criteria to fit my position. I'm not even a fan of Wake. Long before this Wake discussion ever started, I was advocating WHIP, Quality start %, near Quality start %, Opponents OPS against, and ERA+ all ahead of just plain old unadjusted ERA. To me Wake's ERA should really be about 4.20 to 4.40 this year, not even counting park adjustments. It could easily be under 4.00 with a little better "luck".
4) Even if you keep his ERA at 4.92 (4.95 as a starter), he still is a top 5 healthy starter on this team. His 1.288 WHIP is very respectable and 3rd best among healthy Sox starters. His WHIP has gone down 2 straight years. His IP per start (6.25) is 3rd on the team. His BB/9 (2.5) is the best on the staff from 2010-2011 (after his back sugery).
To think this guy is on the top of many poster's list of Sox players in need of replacement or improving upon is totally ridiculous. Wake is our 6th starter who has just started 15 straight games because 2 of our guys are hurt. The club has gone 11-5 in his starts, and he has pitched well enough for any team to win (even low scoring teams) in 9-11 of those starts. He is not this team's "problem". He is not holding back any young stud pitching prospects. He is not deserving of this disrespect.