Wake ERA now at 4.92

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92

    In Response to Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92:
    Lackey will end up the team's wins leader..I predict it, and he may never have to throw another "gem" to do it.
    Posted by dannycater


    Lackey is lucking into a lot of wins, no question.  His luck might run out at any time.

    Happens on other teams too.  Just looking at the Orioles numbers, Guthrie is 5-15 with a 4.38 ERA, and Arrieta is 10-8 with a 5.05 ERA.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92

    In Response to Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92:
    In Response to Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92 : Lackey is lucking into a lot of wins, no question.  His luck might run out at any time. Happens on other teams too.  Just looking at the Orioles numbers, Guthrie is 5-15 with a 4.38 ERA, and Arrieta is 10-8 with a 5.05 ERA.
    Posted by Hfxsoxnut

    That's why a pitcher's W-L record should be way down on the list of skillset measurements (even below team record in GSs).

    Look at some of Wake's 2008 season:
    ER/dec/team w-l
    3   ND  L
    2   ND  W
    3   ND  L
    3   L     L
    3   ND  W
    1   L      L  (8 IP)
    2   ND   L
    2   ND   W
    3   L      L
    1   L      L  (7 IP)
    4   L      L  (7 IP)
    0   ND  W 
    3   L     L
    0   ND  W

    Wake had one in season stretch of 9 straight Quality Starts with 4 games of 0-1 ER, 3 with 2 ERs, and 2 with 3 ERs (both with about 7 IP). In that stretch he was 3-3 with 3 NDs!

    So many fans bashed Wake for his 10-11 record that year, even though he was 5th in the AL in WHIP!
      

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92

    moon, exactly and it's why when Felix was handed the Cy Young with 13 wins few balked at it. It was a back-door slider by the media and a strikeout to all the fans who still think win-loss record for a SP is a prime statistic. It was when guys completed their games, but not anymore.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92

    How does your typical starting pitcher today who throws at best 7 IP control their own destiny? Answer, they can't. Bottom line is the CG pitchers did control their own destiny (at least from a pitching end). They still could not control what their offense did for them. I didn't realize how important it was for a SP to complete games to earn wins until the last few seasons of Roger Clemens in Boston. With a better closer and even setup guys, say Bard/Papelbon, my guess is Rocket could have finished his Sox career with 18-win seasons not 13.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92

    The difference between a guy going 10-11 and 17-8 can be as much to do with a team's bullpen combined with a team's lack of run support.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92

    Bert Blyleven and Jack Morris were two guys who would have been greatly hurt by pitch counts and specialized bullpens over the entire course of their careers. No way do they even approach the number of wins without being CG type guys.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92

    In Response to Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92:
    How does your typical starting pitcher today who throws at best 7 IP control their own destiny? Answer, they can't. Bottom line is the CG pitchers did control their own destiny (at least from a pitching end). They still could not control what their offense did for them. I didn't realize how important it was for a SP to complete games to earn wins until the last few seasons of Roger Clemens in Boston. With a better closer and even setup guys, say Bard/Papelbon, my guess is Rocket could have finished his Sox career with 18-win seasons not 13.
    Posted by dannycater

    I disagree. If Clemens had began juicing in 1993, he'd have 18+ wins those last 4 years. Clemens averaged just 10 wins his last 4 seasons here. He didn't deserve much better. 

    1) He went from leading the league in ERA for 3 straight years to:
    1993: 4.46
    1994: 2.85 (Yes, a hard luck year)
    1995: 4.18
    1996: 3.63

    2) His WHIP went from a league leading 1.074 in 1992 to:
    1993: 1.263
    1994: 1.143
    1995: 1.436
    1996: 1.327

    3) In 1993, he had...
    a no decision in a 9IP 2ER game (not the pen's fault)
    a loss in a 2ER/ 8 IP game (3-1: not the pen's fault)
    a 4-2 loss in a 7 IP 4 ER game
    3 losses in games he let up 5, 6 and 7 ERs in 5 IP 
    then a ND in a team 5-4 loss in 7 IP 4 ER (Roger left tied so did not lose a win)
    a loss in 6ER/2IP
    a no dec. in 7.2 IP  1 ER (lost 3-2) Roger left winning 2-1: Pen blew it.
    a loss in 7.1 IP (13 H+BB) 4 ER (lost 4-0)
    a loss in 4 IP/5ER
    a loss in 6 IP/5ER
    a loss in 3.2 IP/6ER
    a ND in 6IP/4ER (lost 10-5)
    a loss in 6.2 IP/6ER
    a loss in 7 IP/5ER
    a WIN with 5 IP/5 ER
    a loss in 6IP/3ER (5-0)
    I only see one pen blown win this season.

    I think the Sox had weaker hitting those years and horrible defense.

    I agree, the pen was not great back then, especially compard to now, but I think the offense of today could have added several wins to Roger's totals those years (and the better D).
    Our pen back then was:
    1993:
    Jeff Russell  2.70/1.136 (33 saves)
    Quantrill  3.91/1.413
    G. Harris 3.77/1.380 (8 saves)
    Ken Ryan 3.60/1.440
    Bankhead 3.50/1.368
    1994:
    K. Ryan  2.44/1.313 (13 saves)
    Russell  5.14/1.536 (12 saves)
    Harris   8.28/1.818
    Chris Howard, Tony Fossas, Bankhead, VanEgmond
    1995: 
    Aguilera  2.67/1.088 (20 sv)
    Belinda   3.10/1.134 (10 sv)
    K. Ryan   4.96/1.776 (7 sv)
    Maddux  3.91/1.126
    Cormier, Eshelman,Hudson, Sele
    1996:
    Slocumb  3.02/1.476 (31 svs)
    M. Stanton 3.83/1.438
    Rich Garces 4.91/1.705
    Maddux, Moyer, Eshelman, Hudson, Belinda
    Team Reliever WHIP in 1996 was 1.702...that is horrible!
    In 1996, the Sox lost Roger's first 6 games. He let up 2 ERs in 4 of them. The pen did let up several runs after Roger left in many of those first starts.

      
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92

    to be fair, my memory obviously centered on 1996, but it just seemed like the Rocket had a number of things not go his way, preventing him from winning games. In 86, it seemed like every time he threw, the Sox scored runs and he pitched great too.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92

    Offense was putrid, but my point is still valid regarding most SPs in terms of not controlling one's destiny. I just used a poor example.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from softylaw. Show softylaw's posts

    Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92

    Expect a big FA bidding war for Tim Wakefield and Jason Varitek.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimdavis. Show jimdavis's posts

    Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92

    In Response to Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92:
    Expect a big FA bidding war for Tim Wakefield and Jason Varitek.
    Posted by softylaw


    You are such a tool!
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92

    harvey!!!
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92

    Expect a big bidding war over Alex Gonzalez, Bill Hall, Oki, and Cam.
     
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  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from softylaw. Show softylaw's posts

    Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92

    Wakefield and Varitek are hot FA values, which is why the Red Sox find it so easy to resign them.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92

    14 AL Teams x 6 top starters by IP from 2008-2011 (250+ IP+):

    WHIP:
    12) Beckett  1.21
    15) Lester    1.24
    30) Wake      1.30 (Ages 41-45)
    45) Lackey   1.36 (Including '08-'09 with LAA)
    47) Buch.      1.36
    65) Dice-K     1.43

    If 1-14 are #1 slotted pitchers and #15-28 are #2's, then Wake at #30 means he has pitched like a top 2 thirds starter in the AL since 2008 by the WHIP indicator.

    tERA
    10) Lester    3.47
    33) Beckett 4.20
    39) Buch      4.38
    45) Lackey  4.51
    48) Dice-K   4.57
    54) Wake     4.63 (just 0.02 from 50th place)

    By tERA, Wake ranks as a bottom 4th AL starter from 2008-2011.

    Put these two together and it looks like Wake has pitched like a bottom tier 3rd starter as compared to all AL starters with over 250 IP.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92

    In Response to Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92:
    In Response to Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92 : And he gave up 46 the year after, but 1987 was definitely a hitters year.  Giving up home runs isn't necessarily a bad thing provided your other peripherals are good. Flyball pitchers like Blyleven or Johan Santana will typically give up more home runs than those who don't.  Plus, the Metrodome was nicknamed the Homer Dome at the time for obvious reasons.
    Posted by redsoxfan791


    This is why I don't put much value on FIP.

    Also, site adjusted ERA numbers for venue also miss the mark more often than not.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92

    In Response to Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92:
    I don't know how to explain last night's win more than this....3 home runs...I've been preaching the road home runs = victories tour for a long time....Juggernaut? Strong word, how bout optimal offense? Everything about last night's win pointed to the offense and best MLB bullpen doing its job last night. The starting pitcher had a 2.00 WHIP and held a weak hitting team to 4 runs over 6 IP, but he also had allowed 9 baserunners before he recorded 9 outs...and that's not very good in any park. Small sample size or not, this was to me, an example of the offense being the predominant reason of victory. And I think harness picked a great game to go to as a fan....big homers, comeback, great relief...fun game.
    Posted by dannycater


    What amazed me was Lackey's staying power, and how he did it with little going for him. Smoak leaving the game on a brutal ball-to-the-face was key, as he didn't really didn't have to give in to Ackerly after that. The Morales/Ackley AB was pivotal.

    Thought about you when each dinger evaded leather  Cool
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92

    In Response to Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92:
    Bert Blyleven and Jack Morris were two guys who would have been greatly hurt by pitch counts and specialized bullpens over the entire course of their careers. No way do they even approach the number of wins without being CG type guys.
    Posted by dannycater


    Not really. In today's game, the CG is simply shortened. Look at team W/L records when leading after the 7th frame.
    The movement toward specialization saves arms and wins.

    BTW: Blyleven has great control, so pitch count wouldn't be a huge factor with him.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from devildavid. Show devildavid's posts

    Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92

    In Response to Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92:
    In Response to Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92 : Not really. In today's game, the CG is simply shortened. Look at team W/L records when leading after the 7th frame. The movement toward specialization saves arms and wins . BTW: Blyleven has great control, so pitch count wouldn't be a huge factor with him.
    Posted by harness


    How many starters make it to the seventh? Sorry, I don't buy the virtual complete game. A complete game is a complete game.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92

    In Response to Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92:
    In Response to Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92 : How many starters make it to the seventh? Sorry, I don't buy the virtual complete game. A complete game is a complete game.
    Posted by devildavid


    It's not a matter of making it to the seventh inning.  It is about pitching effectively in the innings you pitch.  If you pitch 5 or 6 innings while limiting the hits/runs great "you have done your job" and deserve the victory.  If you put your team behind early and often, or can't hold a lead?

    You failed!
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92

    Wake's 17 starts:

                       IP  H  ER BB (comments)

    1) vs Sea  5.2  3  1  1  

    (left with 2 outs and man on 1st: Jenks allowed his runner to score plus 1 more and Wake gets no decision: Sox win anyways)

     

    2) vs Min  4.1  9  6  4 (started 5 days earlier/pitched relief 2 days before)

    (scored 2 runs on BB, IF hit, GB single and Balk, later 2 inherited Wake runs are allowed by Aceves.)

     

    3) vs Cubs  6  7  4  1

     (shut out through 6.2, then two dbls = 1 run)

     

    4) @ Det   7  5  2  2

     (1 run scores on seeing eye GB single, SB and another seeing eye GB single.)

     

    5) vs CWS  6  7  4  1

     (shut out through 4.2, then BB, bloop single, SB, Groundout to SS, Gb double down 3B line that could have been fielded by Youk-2 runs)

     

    6) @ NYY   5.1  5  5  3

     (Shutout through 4 IP, then 3 runs on BB, PB, 1B, 2B, GB -man to 3rd-Sac Fly, then in 6th 2 outs and BB, and Aceves comes in and allows his run to score.)

     

    7) @ TB     7   4  1  5

     (Shut out for 4.1 IP then HR, in 6th BB, PB, BB, GB runners advance and Passed Ball allows run to score.)

     

    8) vs Mil   8   3 2  1

     (2-runo HR in 2nd + solo HR in 7th: no bad luck)

     

    9) @ Pitt   6   7  5  4

     (shut out for 4.1 IP, and 1B, SB, BB, HR- 2 runs, 2B, GB single for 1 runs, 4th 1 run scores on cheap single to 3B -Youk muffs it, and a 2B to CF that Ellsbury misjudged-could have been caught, then a GB to 2B.)

     

    10) @ Hou  5.1  11  5  0

     (1st inning: 1B, SB, GB runner to 3B, Sac Fly,  2nd: 2 runs scored on 2B, 1B, bunt 1B to 3B, and 2B, in the 5th: GB single, WP, 2B)

     

    11) vs Tor    7    9  3  1

     (3rd inning: swinging bunt single, 1B, GB runners advance, Sac Fly, long 1B)

     

    12) @ Bal    4.2  9  3  2

     (1st: 2 outs then weak 1B to 3B, hard 1B, then 3B for 2 runs. 5th: 2 Ks, HR, HR, 1B, bloop 1B-could have been caught, BB, 2B clears bases)

     

    13) vs Sea  6.1  10  7  1

     (1st: HBP & HR, 5th: K, BB, seeing eye GB 1B, 2B scores 1, Wake enters the 7th ahead 11-3. ***He could have been relieved***, but he stays in and allows: 4 runs on 3 singles and HR)

     

    14) @ CWS  7.0  3  3  2

     (Shutout through 5.1 innings, then bunt single to 3B, Bunt runner to 2B, WP, Sac Fly. 7th inning: BB and HR for 2 runs).

     

    15) vs Cleve  6.2  5  3  2

     (Shutout through 3IP, then HR, ground ball single, Ground ball 2B, ...2 runs, then in the 7th: 2B, Ground out, WP, K, 2B for 1 run)

     

    16) @ MN  7 IP  8H  3 ER  0BB

     (2nd inning: 2B, single, 2 groundouts-runner to 3B, PB run scores- 2 ERs. HR in 4th, 6th inning: hard single and deep 2B for 1 run). Wake leaves with a run run lead-Aceves lets up a run and Wake does not get the win.)

     

    17)  @ Sea  8  9   4  2

      (Shutout for 2 IP, then BB on fullcount (squeezed), SB, Salty error, IF hit to SS (run), single, FC & error by Lowrie SS, then Sac Fly (run), BB, single (run) . 5th inning: IF single to SS, single, single (run). 7th: Solo HR.)

     

    Totals:

    4 ERs on bullpen allowing inherited runners to score.

    4 ERs allowed after Tito left him in (too long) in an 11-3 game (7th inn)-3 singles and HR.

    20 out of 59 total ERs allowed as a starter scored on

      IF hits,  bloop hits, or misjudged fly balls that fell for “hits”

      Muffed balls counted as hits

      Runners advancing on GBs then Sac flies

    28/59 ERs allowed were a bit shaky or “cheap”. I know all pitcher have some bad luck, but I doubt any pitcher has this percent of cheap runs allowed this year.

    Even if you just take away about one third of the cheap runs, it’s pretty easy to figure Wake’s ER as a starter could be closer to 3.00 to 4.00 instead of about 4.90.

     

     

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92

    The team is 11-6 in his starts.
    He's pitched better than his ERA indicates.
    His WHIP is very good.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92

    In Response to Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92:
    In Response to Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92 : How many starters make it to the seventh? Sorry, I don't buy the virtual complete game. A complete game is a complete game.
    Posted by devildavid


    It's not a virtual CG. We have been in an era where hitting has compromised pitching to a greater degree due to hitting friendly parks and juicing, among other reasons.
    Pitchers pitching in the 1960's/70's would find the same limitations today as does a Beckett or a Lester. It doesn't make Jon/Josh lesser pitchers.
    Just dealing with different challenges.

    Pitching is still the predominant factor, but not like it once was.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Wake ERA now at 4.92

    Wake's last 7 starts have been pretty decent. He is 2-2 in that stretch, but the team is 5-2.

    7 IP 3 ER (10 BB+H)
    4.2  3 ER (11 BB+H)
    6.1  10 ER (11)
    7.0  3 ER  (5)
    6.2  3 ER  (7)
    7.0  3 ER  (8)
    8.0  4 ER  (11)    

    Red= Decent+
    Blue= Bad
     
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