We are at the Quarter Turn...

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    We are at the Quarter Turn...

    On pace for about 93 wins and a tie for the wild card slots with TB and just ahead of Cleveland.

    I still have serious doubts, but it's hard not to be a bit more optimistic at 23-17 than 17-23. We still need a solid #3 starter. We still need a solid clean-up hitter.

    Here is a look at the numbers so far...

    OBP:

    Iggy     .476

    Pedey   .428

    M Carp  .390

    D Nava  .388

    Ciriaco  .361

    D Ortiz  .360

    Victorino .344

    S Drew    .336

    Salty       .330

    Gomes    .329

    Ellsbury  .323

    Napoli     .318

    Bradley   .263

    Middbrks .238

     

    SLG%

    M Carp    .737

    D Ortiz    .614

    Iggy       .550

    Napoli    .522

    D Ross    .512

    D Nava   .495

    Salty      .480

    Ciriaco   .448

    Middbrks .424

    Pedey      .423

    S Drew     .418

    Victorino .362

    Ellsbury  .360

    Gomes    .319

    Bradley   .129 

     

    HRs

    Napoli  7

    Middlbrks 7

    Ortiz  5

    Nava  5

    Salty  4

    Ross   4

    Drew   3

     

    RBI

    Napoli  34

    Ortiz    21

    Pedey  17

    Drew    18

    Middl    14

    Ellsb     13

    Salty     11

    Vict        10

     

     

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: We are at the Quarter Turn...

    Been a roller coaster, way up and then way down, they're not boring!  I have no idea what'll happen next.

     
  3. This post has been removed.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from tcal2-. Show tcal2-'s posts

    Re: We are at the Quarter Turn...

    I'd be very happy with 80+ wins this year.  I like this team, no one pi**es me off.  I use to root for Youk to get beaned the last couple year, when he actually played between DL stints.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: We are at the Quarter Turn...

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    I noticed R. Johnson, in 27 games, has a .311 BA and a .367 OBP. Would have been a good platoon guy at a one year low base.



    I noticed Lester and Buch are a combined 12-0 with...

    118.1 IP  29 ER  2.20 ERA

     

    The rest of the starters are...

    122.2 IP  71 ER  5.21

     

    But, you said we didn't need another solid starter.

     

    (Look at the IP: our 2 top starters have about half our starter IP.)

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: We are at the Quarter Turn...

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

     

    I noticed R. Johnson, in 27 games, has a .311 BA and a .367 OBP. Would have been a good platoon guy at a one year low base.

     



    I noticed Lester and Buch are a combined 12-0 with...

     

    118.1 IP  29 ER  2.20 ERA

     

    The rest of the starters are...

    122.2 IP  71 ER  5.21

     

    But, you said we didn't need another solid starter.

     

    (Look at the IP: our 2 top starters have about half our starter IP.)

     




    Dempster has been a solid #3. The record doesnt idicate what hes done. He cpould easily be 4-2 or even 5-1 if he had some run support. A 3.75ERA is good for a #3, althoug it was inflated a bit from his last start. Id like to look at Demp compared to every teams #3 and see where he stands. W-L is the worst way to do that. Demp has 48IP and 20ER era+ of 116 and a 1.146Whip

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Kingface12. Show Kingface12's posts

    Re: We are at the Quarter Turn...

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

     

    I noticed R. Johnson, in 27 games, has a .311 BA and a .367 OBP. Would have been a good platoon guy at a one year low base.

     



    I noticed Lester and Buch are a combined 12-0 with...

     

    118.1 IP  29 ER  2.20 ERA

     

    The rest of the starters are...

    122.2 IP  71 ER  5.21

     

    But, you said we didn't need another solid starter.

     

    (Look at the IP: our 2 top starters have about half our starter IP.)




    Well put.  This team NEEDED to really go after another solid starter in the off season.  I like Lester, Buch and Dempster.  Lackey has been good....especially for a 5 starter at this point.  I NEVER had much confidence in Doubie though.  He just doesn't seem to have that killer instinct up there.....looks like he's playing pass...and not a very good job at it.

    Although what do I know....I was clammoring for them to trade for Detroit's Porcello all Winter and so far he's been a mess.....

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: We are at the Quarter Turn...

    Hitting is a problem with these guys, regardless of team OPS, runs scored, whatever.

    I liked the five starters after a couple of cycles through the rotation I thought Ben C had done well.  I still like the first four, but agree Doubront has regressed from last year--came to ST out of shape, is missing 5mph on his fastball, etc.  Bullpen hurt by injuries. 

    But I continue to hope because, as moonslave say, of the current W-L record, plus I think the hitting will improve, the defense is pretty good (disregard what softy says about Drew at SS), and the rotation in my opinion is above average--Buch and Jon very good, Lackey and Dempster good enough, and pray for rain (unlikely tonight in the Trop).  Salty worries me at catcher, but he can hit.  Middlebrooks and Drew look like they are hitting better, and Ellsbury is bound to do so. 

    This series right now is kind of a neat test because the Rays are in a resurgence, and I really would like to see the Sox slap them down.  Too bad about Doubront tonight, but I'm betting he is on a short leash. 

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: We are at the Quarter Turn...

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

     

    I noticed R. Johnson, in 27 games, has a .311 BA and a .367 OBP. Would have been a good platoon guy at a one year low base.

     



    I noticed Lester and Buch are a combined 12-0 with...

     

    118.1 IP  29 ER  2.20 ERA

     

    The rest of the starters are...

    122.2 IP  71 ER  5.21

     

    But, you said we didn't need another solid starter.

     

    (Look at the IP: our 2 top starters have about half our starter IP.)



    We got another solid starter in Ryan Dempster.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: We are at the Quarter Turn...

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

     

    I noticed R. Johnson, in 27 games, has a .311 BA and a .367 OBP. Would have been a good platoon guy at a one year low base.

     



    I noticed Lester and Buch are a combined 12-0 with...

     

    118.1 IP  29 ER  2.20 ERA

     

    The rest of the starters are...

    122.2 IP  71 ER  5.21

     

    But, you said we didn't need another solid starter.

     

    (Look at the IP: our 2 top starters have about half our starter IP.)

     




    Dempster has been a solid #3. The record doesnt idicate what hes done. He cpould easily be 4-2 or even 5-1 if he had some run support. A 3.75ERA is good for a #3, althoug it was inflated a bit from his last start. Id like to look at Demp compared to every teams #3 and see where he stands. W-L is the worst way to do that. Demp has 48IP and 20ER era+ of 116 and a 1.146Whip

     



    Dempster has done well, so far.

    That doesn't change the fact that we need a solid starter.

    If Dempster continues doing well, it won't hurt having him as the #4.

     

    We must all agree the Doubront run is nearing a break to say the least.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: We are at the Quarter Turn...

    Last year our mean run scored was 4. This year it is 5.

    0-2 runs: 8  (1-7)

    3 runs:    6  (3-3)

    4 runs:    4  (2-2)

    0-4: 18

     

    5 runs:    3  (2-1)

     

    6+ : 18

    6 runs:    6  (6-0)

    7 runs:    5  (4-1)

    8+ runs:  7  (6-1) 

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: We are at the Quarter Turn...

    Leaders in IP:

    59.2 Lester  6-0  2.72

    58.2 Buch    6-0  1.69

    48.0 Demo   2-4  3.75

    37.1 Doub    3-1  6.03

    26.2 Lackey  1-4  4.05

    20.1 Morten  1-2  3.98

    18.1 Tazawa 3-2  2.95

    17.2 Aceves  1-1  8.66

    15.2 Uehara  0-0  2.30

    12.1 Bailey   1-0  1.46

    12.0 Wilson  0-0  1.50

    11.1 Miller    0-1  4.76

    7.2 Webster  0-1 11.74

    7.1 Hanrahan 0-1 9.82

    5.0 Breslow    0-0  1.80

    6.2 Wright/de la Torre/Bard  0-0  ~10.70

    Will not or may not play for Sox again this year in any meaningful manner.

     

    Other than Doubront and Miller, the top 12 pitchers who rate to be our 12 going forward all have pretty decent to great numbers. That's a good sign, as long as our 5th starter can turn things around.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: We are at the Quarter Turn...

    Comparative:

    OPS by position in MLB:

    2nd  .851 2B

    5th   .826 DH

    6th   .781 SS

    7th  .789  Catcher

    8th  .784  LF

    9th  .886  1B

    10th .783  RF

     

    15th .699 3B

     

    25th .665 CF

    We are top 10 in 7 of 9 positions... the 2 not in the top 10?

    ...not the ones many felt would be the 2 nearer the bottom.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: We are at the Quarter Turn...

    Team OPS:

    Home:  7th at .781

    Away:  3rd at .771

    vs RHPs:  .818

    vs LHPs:  .691

    Gomes has been one of the best hitters vs LHPs in MLB the last few years. We need him and others to do better in this area.

     
  15. This post has been removed.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: We are at the Quarter Turn...

    Go Dempster

     

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: We are at the Quarter Turn...

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    On pace for about 93 wins and a tie for the wild card slots with TB and just ahead of Cleveland.

    I still have serious doubts, but it's hard not to be a bit more optimistic at 23-17 than 17-23. We still need a solid #3 starter. We still need a solid clean-up hitter.

    Here is a look at the numbers so far...

    OBP:

    Iggy     .476

    Pedey   .428

    M Carp  .390

    D Nava  .388

    Ciriaco  .361

    D Ortiz  .360

    Victorino .344

    S Drew    .336

    Salty       .330

    Gomes    .329

    Ellsbury  .323

    Napoli     .318

    Bradley   .263

    Middbrks .238

     

    SLG%

    M Carp    .737

    D Ortiz    .614

    Iggy       .550

    Napoli    .522

    D Ross    .512

    D Nava   .495

    Salty      .480

    Ciriaco   .448

    Middbrks .424

    Pedey      .423

    S Drew     .418

    Victorino .362

    Ellsbury  .360

    Gomes    .319

    Bradley   .129 

     

    HRs

    Napoli  7

    Middlbrks 7

    Ortiz  5

    Nava  5

    Salty  4

    Ross   4

    Drew   3

     

    RBI

    Napoli  34

    Ortiz    21

    Pedey  17

    Drew    18

    Middl    14

    Ellsb     13

    Salty     11

    Vict        10

     




    It's been a very inconsistent lineup moon to say the least so I will still be happy with my 88 win prediction.  I also said the bottom would finally fall out in Tampa placing them in dead last by seasons end but Toronto just might be as bad as they actually look.  I agree another starter/couple of moves and we could finish even better.

     

      

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: We are at the Quarter Turn...

    It's been a very inconsistent lineup moon to say the least so I will still be happy with my 88 win prediction. 

    Most MLB line-ups are highly unbalanced and top or middle heavy.

    While we still have weak numbers at the #1 and 8 slots, we seem to be more balanced than 2011.

    OPS by slot:

    1) .651  (Ellsbury needs to be dropped to 9 vs RHPs and maybe benched vs LHPs)

    2) .734 (but a decent .357 OBP)

    3) .858

    4) 1.008 (Papi the savior)

    5) .747 (Naps needs to bring up his OBP)

    6) .794 

    7) .869 (nice number for this slot)

    8) .654 (Drew, Middlebrooks and JBJ's slot)

    9) .724

     

    2011:

    1) .903 (.366 OBP vs .309 this year)

    2) .827

    3) .916

    4) .861

    5) .885

    6) .695

    7) .778

    8) .629

    9) .757

     

    I also said the bottom would finally fall out in Tampa placing them in dead last by seasons end but Toronto just might be as bad as they actually look. 

    If Price continues to struggle, you are right, but they are 2 games over .500 despite Price, Rodney, and Zobrist having a rough start.

    I agree another starter/couple of moves and we could finish even better.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: We are at the Quarter Turn...

    OBP update:

    .476 Iggy

    .433 Pedey (I could care less about his "loss of power" if he stays over .400)

    .408 Papi

    .392 Nava(sample size is groing larger) 

    .370 Carp (coming back to earth)

    .341 Victorino

    .337 Gomes

    .336 Drew (on the rise)

    .333 Salty (way better than last year's .288 number)

    .330 Napoli (His SLG% and RBIs have made up for this low number.)

    .320 Ross (4 HRs in 43 ABs)

    .317 Ciriaco (nearing his career .299 minor league OBP)

    .309 Ellsbury (HOw much longer will he stay in the #1 slot?)

    .263 JBJ

    .250 WMB (on the rise)

    .125 Lava (8 PA sample size)

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: We are at the Quarter Turn...

    Slg% update (40+ PAs only)

    1)  .681 Papi

    2)  .667 Carp

    3)  .512 Naps

    4)  .512 Ross

    5)  .509 Nava (perhaps the biggest surprise number of the season)

    6)  .467 Salty

    7)  .425 Pedey

    8)  .419 Middlebrooks  (big boost from 3 HR + 1 2B game)

    9)  .410 Drew

    10) .382 Ciriaco

    11) .367 Victorino

    12) .342 Ellsbury

    13) .320 Gomes

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: We are at the Quarter Turn...

    We have 8 guys with an OPS over .800!

    Papi, Carp, Iggy, Nava, Pedey, Naps, Ross, and Salty. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: We are at the Quarter Turn...

    Last year our mean run scored was 4.

    This year it is 5...

    0-2 runs: 10  (1-9)

    3 runs:    7  (4-3)

    4 runs:    4  (2-2)

    0-4:  21

     

    5 runs:    3  (2-1)

     

    6+ : 19

    6 runs:    6  (6-0)

    7 runs:    5  (4-1)

    8+ runs:  8  (7-1) 

     

    2011:

    0-2:  38 (4-34)

    3 R:  17 (7-10)

    4 R:  30 (17-13)

     

    0-4: 85 (28-57)

     

    5 R: 15 (7-8)

     

    6+:  62 (55-7)

     

    6 R: 13 (9-4)

    7 R: 9  (7-2)

    8+:  40 (39-1)

     

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: We are at the Quarter Turn...

    edit:

    Runs scored per game...

     

    0-4:  21

     

    5 runs:    4  

     

    6+ : 19

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: We are at the Quarter Turn...

    SIERA numbers that might surprise you:

    1) Lackey  3.29

    2) Buch     3.34

    3) Demp   3.52

    4) Lest      3.54

    5) Doub    4.06

     

    tERA

    1) Buch  3.07

    2) Lack  3.73

    3) Lest   3.76

    4) Demp 4.37

    5) Doub  4.63

     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share