what about our prospects ? some thoughts

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from ernstbln. Show ernstbln's posts

    what about our prospects ? some thoughts

    Bryce Brentz will be 24 and as our 4th top prospect should have been given the first shot at RF i believe. Xander Bogaerts will be 20 and the sucess ot Harper and Trout should allow him to be given a shot this coming year with his sucess in the minors so far. Mauro Gomez's hitting and power over the last 4 years in the minors should have given him first run at the first base position. between him and Brentz you save 26 million a year better spent on pitching. If Bogaerts is not projected to be a SS than why play him there at all ? Our 1st round draft choice this year was a SS also. Ryan Lavarnway did not hit well up in the majors but there have been many good players that had similar stats in their first year and went on from there to suceed.  there is also Juan Linares who needs to have a final shot after having a good year in 2012. 8 of our top 20 prospects are pitchers. hopefully we have some help among them for next year. 

    Like many others I am having trouble agreeing with the signings so far when I think we have prospects that are cheap and likely just as good as    those we signed.

     

     

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: what about our prospects ? some thoughts

     There is also Juan Linares who needs to have a final shot after having a good year in 2012.

     

    He does not have to be on the 40 man roster to be preotected, so we may not see him this year.  Too bad, I think he may be ready.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: what about our prospects ? some thoughts

    Bryce Brentz is our fourth best prospect? According to who?

     

    Baseball America has him #8.

    Fangraphs places him at #11.

    Even soxprospects.com, which can get a little homerish especially with the AA and AAA guys, only places him as high as 6th.

     

     

    Mauro Gomez is an AAAA player.  He really is.  He got to live his dream last year, good for him.  But any team trotting him out at 1B 162 times deserves the last place finish they are destined for.

     

    Ditto Juan Carlos Linares.  Except, you know, he is not a 1B...

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: what about our prospects ? some thoughts

    With you on Xander, bring him up and play him.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: what about our prospects ? some thoughts

    By the way, I really, really disagree that career minor leaguer Juan Carlos Linares is anywhere near as good as mutliple All Star Shane Victorino.  At least not as baseball.  Were you perhaps discussing another sport?  (I bet Shane is also a better surfer.)

     

    And the Ryan Dempster thing has gone beyond idiotic. He is a good pitcher.  Dave Cameron wrote a piece about the myth of NL pitchers going to the AL East.  But hey, if everyone took time to read and learn, then who will be left to do all the whining, complaining and panicking?

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: what about our prospects ? some thoughts

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    By the way, I really, really disagree that career minor leaguer Juan Carlos Linares is anywhere near as good as mutliple All Star Shane Victorino.  At least not as baseball.  Were you perhaps discussing another sport?  (I bet Shane is also a better surfer.)

     

    And the Ryan Dempster thing has gone beyond idiotic. He is a good pitcher.  Dave Cameron wrote a piece about the myth of NL pitchers going to the AL East.  But hey, if everyone took time to read and learn, then who will be left to do all the whining, complaining and panicking?

    [/QUOTE]


     

    What would the Red Sox do without you to carry water for them?

    There is no terrible decision by the Sox that you don't eventually enthusiatically support.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: what about our prospects ? some thoughts

    I think that the failures of the parent club have made some of us look longingly at our prospects.  The problem here is that our prospects are no better than other teams prospects. If you think that all will be well in Boston when our prospects are " ready " , you are going to be disappointed. Of course , by then there will be a whole new group of prospects to become excited about. 

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: what about our prospects ? some thoughts

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    By the way, I really, really disagree that career minor leaguer Juan Carlos Linares is anywhere near as good as mutliple All Star Shane Victorino.  At least not as baseball.  Were you perhaps discussing another sport?  (I bet Shane is also a better surfer.)

     

    And the Ryan Dempster thing has gone beyond idiotic. He is a good pitcher.  Dave Cameron wrote a piece about the myth of NL pitchers going to the AL East.  But hey, if everyone took time to read and learn, then who will be left to do all the whining, complaining and panicking?

    [/QUOTE]


     

    What would the Red Sox do without you to carry water for them?

    There is no terrible decision by the Sox that you don't eventually enthusiatically support.

    [/QUOTE]


     I certainly NEVER wanted Bard in the rotation. Or for that matter, in the closer role. I could not figure out why they simply would not trade Bard (with?) for a starting pitcher.

    I have not been enthusiastic about any moves this off-season.  I do not think they are as horrible as everyone screams.  Fans are overreacting negatively.  The problem here is I know where the grey area between "great move" and "bad move" is, and I see no reason to et worked up over it.  Most fans don't.  They immediately categorize them into one or another, and once they do nothing changes their minds.  Much like you.

     

    Plus there is the aadded egomanical attiture on these baords from fans who appear to honestly believe they should be running the team, and any deviation from their plans is a personal affront.  They will not root for any player they did not want the team to get.  (Certainly you and your jeering of Andrew Bailey can identify.).  That whole attitude strikes me as ridiculously egotistical.   The reality is, ike the moves or not, they are made with waaaaaaaaay more information than any of us have.  And wishing the GM gone for not liking your "plan" will not change this, since the next guy will also have waaaaaaaaaaaaaay more information than you.   If any of us actually ran the team, I know for a fact it would go straight into the ground.  And that includes me.  Although I do think most of the other posters would drive the team into the ground faster than i would. 

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: what about our prospects ? some thoughts

    In response to ernstbln's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Bryce Brentz will be 24 and as our 4th top prospect should have been given the first shot at RF i believe. Xander Bogaerts will be 20 and the sucess ot Harper and Trout should allow him to be given a shot this coming year with his sucess in the minors so far. Mauro Gomez's hitting and power over the last 4 years in the minors should have given him first run at the first base position. between him and Brentz you save 26 million a year better spent on pitching. If Bogaerts is not projected to be a SS than why play him there at all ? Our 1st round draft choice this year was a SS also. Ryan Lavarnway did not hit well up in the majors but there have been many good players that had similar stats in their first year and went on from there to suceed.  there is also Juan Linares who needs to have a final shot after having a good year in 2012. 8 of our top 20 prospects are pitchers. hopefully we have some help among them for next year. 

    Like many others I am having trouble agreeing with the signings so far when I think we have prospects that are cheap and likely just as good as    those we signed.

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Brentz only played a handful of games at the AAA level. He went to college, so thats why he just turned 24 and is in AAA still. He should debut sometime this year. Bogaerts, although highly touted, still needs work on his game. JBJ needs more time too. RDLR and Brentz are probably the closest to playing at Fenway, but it wont be until at least mid-season barring injuries.

    In 2014 there should be a lot of guys knocking on the door looking to get a chance to prove themselves at the MLB level.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: what about our prospects ? some thoughts

    I have to agree with "ernstbln" and the ones criticizing him have been the first ones complaining about every move Ben has made. In my estimation Ben hasn't made a bad move yet. His plan is a work inprogress. Many of us think we can do a better job than Ben and that's why this forum is loaded with great commentary. I originally didn't think Ben had a plan--I now see his plan a little clearer. No signings over three years-he stayed away from Ham and Sanchez unless on his terms. Good managerial sign.

    Where the line is drawn for me is when the responses are aimed in a chastising way at the commentators.

    The O's brought Manny Machado in the heat of a pennant race and through the playoffs playing him out of position. Is Bogaerts as good as Machado? Baseball America says he's a Top 50. We've seen  Trout and Harper, is he as good as they are? So what are we to do with him? Is he better than Iggy, Ciriaco,WMB? If yes then play him now or put him in a package to get someone better--Stanton, JUpton, Ethier, etc.

    Is Brentz better than Gomes, Kalish, Nava---then play him now. 

    Is JBJ better than Ells---then play him now.

    The question about Gomez is interesting. Notin and Moon would lead us to believe in the 4A myth. Gomez, utilized perhaps in a smarter way, could help create a solid and potentially productive corner on this team and a feared RH bat. Sign Pena and platoon him with Gomez and / or Sands at 1b. He played in 160 games 19HR, 61 RBI's, Lots of K's, 1 per game, a walk every other game--.330 OBP with an under .200 BA. Is he still a feared bat--I think so. He could probably be had for a reasonable fee. Batting against RH and a def. replacement he might be able to help the Sox--what do you have to lose?

    We know about 1 % of what happens behind the scenes and it's only a guess at that.

    Prospects are suspects until they do something special other great players have done. If you  think you are a good judge of talent go to Lowell,  A-, A+ AA, AAA, or Spring training or the Instrutional League or the Dominican Summer League, or the Cape Cod League and the Boston City League and see a wide sample of players. Every one of these levels has some very good players, players that are or were close-95 to 98 % will not make it. That 2 to 5 % is what you hope to find;"A diamond in the rough."

    For the Sox, this year, Portland and Pawtucket should be great fun places to watch some young talent.

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: what about our prospects ? some thoughts

    Mauro Gomez is an AAAA player.  He really is.  He got to live his dream last year, good for him.  But any team trotting him out at 1B 162 times deserves the last place finish they are destined for.

    Bill James 2013:

    Mauro Gomez  804

    Napoli   848

    As Billy Joel said, "is that a ll you get for your money?"

     

    By the way, I really, really disagree that career minor leaguer Juan Carlos Linares is anywhere near as good as mutliple All Star Shane Victorino.

    Bill James  2013:

    Victorino  .756

    or Linares at 28yo,  2012  .874

     

     




     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: what about our prospects ? some thoughts

    In response to tom-uk's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Mauro Gomez is an AAAA player.  He really is.  He got to live his dream last year, good for him.  But any team trotting him out at 1B 162 times deserves the last place finish they are destined for.

    Bill James 2013:

    Mauro Gomez  804

    Napoli   848

    As Billy Joel said, "is that a ll you get for your money?"

     

    By the way, I really, really disagree that career minor leaguer Juan Carlos Linares is anywhere near as good as mutliple All Star Shane Victorino.

    Bill James  2013:

    Victorino  .756

    or Linares at 28yo,  2012  .874

     

     




    [/QUOTE]


    Not sure where your getting your info from. But in 2 years in AAA Linares ops is .797 so saying he'll have a .874 next yr at age 28 in mlb makes no sense at all. At best he might become a good 4th outfielder.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: what about our prospects ? some thoughts

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think that the failures of the parent club have made some of us look longingly at our prospects.  The problem here is that our prospects are no better than other teams prospects. If you think that all will be well in Boston when our prospects are " ready " , you are going to be disappointed. Of course , by then there will be a whole new group of prospects to become excited about. 

    [/QUOTE]


    Well said.  If you are always looking towards the future, the future will never come.

    We have a good home grown core.  We have guys playing this year for cheap.  This is when you supplement and go for it.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: what about our prospects ? some thoughts

    In response to tom-uk's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Mauro Gomez is an AAAA player.  He really is.  He got to live his dream last year, good for him.  But any team trotting him out at 1B 162 times deserves the last place finish they are destined for.

    Bill James 2013:

    Mauro Gomez  804

    Napoli   848

    As Billy Joel said, "is that a ll you get for your money?"

     

    By the way, I really, really disagree that career minor leaguer Juan Carlos Linares is anywhere near as good as mutliple All Star Shane Victorino.

    Bill James  2013:

    Victorino  .756

    or Linares at 28yo,  2012  .874

     

     




    [/QUOTE]


    .804 va .848 is a very large disparity. Thats an okay mlb player vs a borderline all-star.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: what about our prospects ? some thoughts

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to tom-uk's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Mauro Gomez is an AAAA player.  He really is.  He got to live his dream last year, good for him.  

    As Billy Joel said, "is that a ll you get for your money?"

     

    By the way, I really, really disagree that career minor leaguer Juan Carlos Linares is anywhere near as good as mutliple All Star Shane Victorino.

    Bill James  2013:

    Victorino  .756

    or Linares at 28yo,  2012  .874

    Not sure where your getting your info from. But in 2 years in AAA Linares ops is .797 so saying he'll have a .874 next yr at age 28 in mlb makes no sense at all. At best he might become a good 4th outfielder.

    [/QUOTE]

    JCL in 2012 posted an .874 OPS 

     

    .804 va .848 is a very large disparity. Thats an okay mlb player vs a borderline all-star

    Corey Hart 2012 .841, poor fielder and runner, 149 games  2.9 WAR

    Freddy Freeman '12  .796, poor fielder and runner, 147 games  2.0 WAR

    .9 WAR is worth less than ~ $5m

     

     
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  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter55. Show parhunter55's posts

    Re: what about our prospects ? some thoughts

    The original OP is off the mark, IMO.  Every move Ben has made, whether you like them or not, is with the prospects in mind, and their continued development.  Brentz and Bogaerts are not ready.  Neither is Barnes.  Hence the need for an outfielder or two, possiblty a middle infielder (don't be surprised if S. Drew is signed next) and a SP on short years (for which Ben paid top dollar--the only way the player would accept fewer years, theoretically).

    So, I am uncertain.  Did you want Ben to make no moves and just play all the youngsters?  Or did you want him to sign Sanchez or Grienke for 5 or 6 years, and Hamilton to 5 years, thus hindering the development of at least two of the prospects you mentioned?

    I do not like the expense of Victorino.  Never liked the Napoli signing.  And wish the pitching situation had been handled by signing Haren on short term (the deal he got was easily within the Sox's ability to afford) along with a longer term commitment to 28-year old A. Sanchez.  But I at least commend Ben for two things:  Sticking with his plan of bringing along the younsters and bridging the year or two more needed for their proper development; and not giving up a draft pick.  2013 may surprise us all, but it looks like the Jays and Rays are easily going to finish above the Sox, while teams in the central and west divisions have made significant improvements as well.  But it should be fun watching the Sox develop their own players.  2014 and 2015 should be very interesting and possibly very rewarding years for Sox fans.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: what about our prospects ? some thoughts

    Like many others I am having trouble agreeing with the signings so far when I think we have prospects that are cheap and likely just as good as    those we signed.

    I would prefer to go cheap, but I think you are over-estimating the readiness factor.

    Bogaerts just turned 20 and has less than 100 PAs higher than single-A.  And in those appearances, he has a 21/1 K/W.  To think he can beat major leaguers is a bit far afield.  Maybe 2014 or more likely, 2015.

    Brentz had 130 Ks in 456 ABs at the AA level last year.  That would be 173 Ks in 600 ABs, at the AA level.  My guess that is about 200 Ks in the pros.  I'm not sure he'll even be a pro.

    Gomez has a 4/1 K/W in the minors.  He wasn't released by Atlenta and TX, two savvy teams, without a reason.

    Linares there is less to go on, but an .801 at AAA at age 27 is not a big stat.  My guess is that both Nava and Kalish are better than either Gomez or Linares, Bogaerts is way too young, and Brentz needs to spend a little time in AAA.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from charliedarling. Show charliedarling's posts

    Re: what about our prospects ? some thoughts

    I like the idea of waiting for our prospects seeing that we were a last place team last season.

    I think that Valentine was a big part of being in last place (even more so than the injuries), but last place is still last place.   And, when you are in last place one year it is not likely that you move past everyone else in one season to become the World Series winners in the very next season.

    With that said, it is time to wait on all of the current top prospects and give them ALL a chance to make a contribution at the major league level in the next couple of years.  If that means signing Victorino and Napoli to fill some holes now so be it.

    If the Sox finished second last year with a much stronger returning nucleus then I would have no trouble using some of these prospects to acquire one or two pieces that could possibly put them into position to win it all in 2013.

     

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