What are Percentage Odds They Accept Qualifying Offer?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    What are Percentage Odds They Accept Qualifying Offer?

    What are your thoughts? Mine are below:

    Ellsbury    0%

    Napoli      20%

    Drew        80%

    The Red Sox know what they are doing, but what team will give up a first round pick for Drew?

    Also, if he takes the offer he gets a 55% raise. Boras will advise him to take it in a heartbeat.

     
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  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from charliedarling. Show charliedarling's posts

    Re: What are Percentage Odds They Accept Qualifying Offer?

    I would think that Drew will take his qualifing offer from the Sox because he is neither likely to get a better one year offer nor a 3 year offer for 27-30 M (or more) due to the draft pick compensation before he is required to make a decision on accepting/denying the offer.

    Napoli proved last season that he was worth the 39M/3 year deal the Sox wanted to give him last winter so why not give him the same deal for the next three years.  He does not have to catch ever again, but was a good first baseman this year and can ease into the DH role when Ortiz retires.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: What are Percentage Odds They Accept Qualifying Offer?

    In response to charliedarling's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I would think that Drew will take his qualifing offer from the Sox because he is neither likely to get a better one year offer nor a 3 year offer for 27-30 M (or more) due to the draft pick compensation before he is required to make a decision on accepting/denying the offer.

    Napoli proved last season that he was worth the 39M/3 year deal the Sox wanted to give him last winter so why not give him the same deal for the next three years.  He does not have to catch ever again, but was a good first baseman this year and can ease into the DH role when Ortiz retires.

    [/QUOTE]
    I would literally be shocked if any of these 3 guys accepted.  I would also be surprised if Drew doesn't get at least a 4 year deal, as he is the best SS on the market & there is a ton of money out there.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Kingface12. Show Kingface12's posts

    Re: What are Percentage Odds They Accept Qualifying Offer?

    In response to charliedarling's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I would think that Drew will take his qualifing offer from the Sox because he is neither likely to get a better one year offer nor a 3 year offer for 27-30 M (or more) due to the draft pick compensation before he is required to make a decision on accepting/denying the offer.

    Napoli proved last season that he was worth the 39M/3 year deal the Sox wanted to give him last winter so why not give him the same deal for the next three years.  He does not have to catch ever again, but was a good first baseman this year and can ease into the DH role when Ortiz retires.

    [/QUOTE]


    +1

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: What are Percentage Odds They Accept Qualifying Offer?

    Last year, all nine players who were given a qualifying offer declined them. Eight out of the nine of them signed with a new team.

    I think Drew and Napoli will stay.  Ellsbury will sign with another team.  I have a feeling that either the Mariners or the Angels will sign Ellsbury. 

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: What are Percentage Odds They Accept Qualifying Offer?

    In response to charliedarling's comment:

    "Napoli proved last season that he was worth the 39M/3 year deal the Sox wanted to give him last winter so why not give him the same deal for the next three years.  He does not have to catch ever again, but was a good first baseman this year and can ease into the DH role when Ortiz retires."

    Ortiz is a special case for us but most teams don't spend anywhere near that kind of money for a DH.

    After Ortiz, why couldn't we consider a platoon DH situation, to get the most out of both sides of the plate? Papi had a great year health wise, but I cringed every time I saw him run the bases. I'd love our next DHs to be able to hit the ball to all parts of the field so that we could make teams pay for shifting against us. I'd love to have someone in every position with a little extra speed to avoid GIDP or leg out an infield hit.

    We're set with Ortiz for now, but I hope that when his time has passed we don't try to catch lightning in a bottle twice in the same way.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: What are Percentage Odds They Accept Qualifying Offer?

    Drew 0%

    Ells 0%

    Naps 0%

    Ells will get around 20M per and maybe as high as 6-7 years

    Naps should get a 3 year deal in the 13-14M per range

    Drew will get  3-4 year offers for 10M+ per

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: What are Percentage Odds They Accept Qualifying Offer?

    I've been a big Drew supporter/defender this season, and while I like him, I don't want him back.

    I want Middlebrooks at 3B, Bogaerts at SS, Pedey at 2B and Napoli at 1B.

    Of course it Napoli walks, I would accept Bogaerts-Drew-Pedey-Middlebrooks.

    I want Salty/Ross catching.

    I would like Bradley-Ellsbury-Victorino in the OF but I would accept Gomes/Nava-Bradley-Victorino.

    The big thing is I hope the Sox don't trade Middlebrooks. He's a RH power bat. He's played seven full months in the regular season and was very good in five of the seven.

    2012

    May: 6 HR, 21 RBI, .316 BA
    June: 4 HR, 16 RBI, .288 BA
    July: 3 HR, 10 RBI, .294 BA

    Aug of 2012 is incomplete -- just 10 games/35 PA before getting hurt. He was batting .194 but did have 2 HR, 7 RBI, which would be about 5 HR and 16 RBI for a full month. 

    2013

    April: 6-12-.194
    May: 2-9-.211
    Aug.: 2-7-.322
    Sept.: 6-17-.244

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: What are Percentage Odds They Accept Qualifying Offer?

    In response to LagunaJose's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I read that they gave an exit physical to Napoli and the results were encouraging regarding his hip. Based on that he might be looking for a 3-4 year contract.

    [/QUOTE]

    The natural course of aseptic necrosis of the hip, which is what Napoli has, is progressive deterioration. Exactly how fast that happens is very variable from individual to individual, but I would call it almost inevitable. A 3-4 year contract would be foolhardy.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from ZILLAGOD. Show ZILLAGOD's posts

    Re: What are Percentage Odds They Accept Qualifying Offer?

    Drew and Napoli may not, but Ellsbury surely won't.

    Drew should take it.

    Napoli probably should.

    Ellsbury won't because he and Borass think he is Hank Aaron.

    But, I don't know what other teams might pay for Drew and Napoli...so I could be all wet.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: What are Percentage Odds They Accept Qualifying Offer?

    In response to royf19's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I've been a big Drew supporter/defender this season, and while I like him, I don't want him back.

    I want Middlebrooks at 3B, Bogaerts at SS, Pedey at 2B and Napoli at 1B.

    Of course it Napoli walks, I would accept Bogaerts-Drew-Pedey-Middlebrooks.

    I want Salty/Ross catching.

    I would like Bradley-Ellsbury-Victorino in the OF but I would accept Gomes/Nava-Bradley-Victorino.

    The big thing is I hope the Sox don't trade Middlebrooks. He's a RH power bat. He's played seven full months in the regular season and was very good in five of the seven.

    2012

    May: 6 HR, 21 RBI, .316 BA
    June: 4 HR, 16 RBI, .288 BA
    July: 3 HR, 10 RBI, .294 BA

    Aug of 2012 is incomplete -- just 10 games/35 PA before getting hurt. He was batting .194 but did have 2 HR, 7 RBI, which would be about 5 HR and 16 RBI for a full month. 

    2013

    April: 6-12-.194
    May: 2-9-.211
    Aug.: 2-7-.322
    Sept.: 6-17-.244

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I 100% agree with this. I am also a big Drew fan, but I want Xander to start his MLB career. Im ready for some rookie/young player issues on the left side, but I think they will be just fine. I feel better about Xander than Middy, but I dont think they should trade him. Naps should be back. At least I hope he is. Middy is NOT playing 1b, so I hope folks here get that out of their head. The Sox see Xander as a SS and Middy as a 3b. End of story.

    Salty is the best choice if they want a long term catcher. He should get 4yr offers, so If the Sox want him for less years, they will have to overpay.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from jete02fan. Show jete02fan's posts

    Re: What are Percentage Odds They Accept Qualifying Offer?

    In response to Kingface12's comment:

    In response to charliedarling's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I would think that Drew will take his qualifing offer from the Sox because he is neither likely to get a better one year offer nor a 3 year offer for 27-30 M (or more) due to the draft pick compensation before he is required to make a decision on accepting/denying the offer.

    Napoli proved last season that he was worth the 39M/3 year deal the Sox wanted to give him last winter so why not give him the same deal for the next three years.  He does not have to catch ever again, but was a good first baseman this year and can ease into the DH role when Ortiz retires.




    +1

    [/QUOTE] would be a good contract, barring a return of his hip issue(ie full health), he'll only be 35 when that pact ends..


     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sportswizard1. Show Sportswizard1's posts

    Re: What are Percentage Odds They Accept Qualifying Offer?

    Ellsbury has a 0% chance of excepting the QO.

    Drew has a 60% chance of excepting the QO.

    Napoli has a 20% cbahce of excepting the QO.

    All things being considered equal, Ellsbury is the second rated FA and I don't expect the Sox to go past 120mil over 6 yrs so his chances of returning are about the same as his chances of excepting the QO.

    Drew as bad as his hitting was in the postseason will be a sought after FA, so he will get offers and his agent is of course Borass, so he's unlikely to return either.

    Napoli will be sought after but he likes Boston so unless someone bowls him over he's the one guy I fully expect to be playing in a Sox uniform next year.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sportswizard1. Show Sportswizard1's posts

    Re: What are Percentage Odds They Accept Qualifying Offer?

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

    Last year, all nine players who were given a qualifying offer declined them. Eight out of the nine of them signed with a new team.

    I think Drew and Napoli will stay.  Ellsbury will sign with another team.  I have a feeling that either the Mariners or the Angels will sign Ellsbury. 

     

    I can see the Mariners, but the Angels have a guy named Hamilton and another named Trout so I can't see them as suitors. Teams too watch: Cubs,Giants,Mariners,Phillies and depending on the Arod case results the Yankees.


     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: What are Percentage Odds They Accept Qualifying Offer?

    In response to Sportswizard1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Ellsbury has a 0% chance of excepting the QO.

    Drew has a 60% chance of excepting the QO.

    Napoli has a 20% cbahce of excepting the QO.

    All things being considered equal, Ellsbury is the second rated FA and I don't expect the Sox to go past 120mil over 6 yrs so his chances of returning are about the same as his chances of excepting the QO.

    Drew as bad as his hitting was in the postseason will be a sought after FA, so he will get offers and his agent is of course Borass, so he's unlikely to return either.

    Napoli will be sought after but he likes Boston so unless someone bowls him over he's the one guy I fully expect to be playing in a Sox uniform next year.

    [/QUOTE]

    Ellsbury - 0% chance of taking the QO, but that doesn't mean I don't see a possibility of his being in a Red Sox uni next year.  I see his worth as being in the $20MM/year range and  his presence in Boston depends on whether some GM from some other team wants to make him a foolhardy offer of substantially more than that. 

    Drew - 30% chance of taking the offer.  Not because it's not money enough or because he doesn't like it in Boston, but because he DOES like it in Boston and he knows he'd be playing every day with Bogarts looking over his shoulder.  That coupled with the obvious preference of the FO to have Bogarts as the regular SS will make him wonder if he might be better off someplace else in a longer term deal.

    Napoli - I think he'll take this offer because he likes it in Boston AND nobody else is going to give him more money - at least for the first year.  He then will try to renegotiate it into a two year deal - which I think the FO would be crazy to do.  As Pumpsie said, this hip WILL deteriorate.  It's just a matter of when, and I don't see the FO taking the gamble that it happens after two more years.

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: What are Percentage Odds They Accept Qualifying Offer?

    Ells 0

    Naps 0

    Drew 50

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: What are Percentage Odds They Accept Qualifying Offer?

    In response to ADG's comment:

    What are your thoughts? Mine are below:

    Ellsbury    0%

    Napoli      20%

    Drew        80%

    The Red Sox know what they are doing, but what team will give up a first round pick for Drew?

    Also, if he takes the offer he gets a 55% raise. Boras will advise him to take it in a heartbeat.




    Teams with a protected 1st rounder.

     
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