What are your expectations of Xander offensively and defensively?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    What are your expectations of Xander offensively and defensively?

    In Xander's  first year I feel a .260 BA, 575 AB's, 15 HR's and 60 RBI is reasonable production. Hopefully a .340 OBP. Strong 2 B and 3 B production with his LCF to RCF swing. 25 SB's. 100 runs scored. I see him perhaps batting behind Nap and ahead of WMB.

     

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: What are your expectations of Xander offensively and defensively?

    since he is touted as an offensive SS i am expecting good production from him at the plate. in this order:

    1) working the counts AKA high P/PA

    2) good contact hitting particularly spraying the ball to all fields.

    3) power (XBHs, not so much HRs as i find them sort of over rated)

     

    i am really expecting a ROY calibur season at the plate. he is our top prospect and one of the best in baseball we should all be expecting him to turn in a supreme season at the plate. his defense on the other hand has been a work in progress. i think it will be good enough for his position and will only get better as time goes on IMO.

    i don't really worry about Xander at all. i think he is a star in the making. especially if he gets better with the glove.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: What are your expectations of Xander offensively and defensively?

    In response to MadMc44's comment:

    In Xander's  first year I feel a .260 BA, 575 AB's, 15 HR's and 60 RBI is reasonable production. Hopefully a .340 OBP. Strong 2 B and 3 B production with his LCF to RCF swing. 25 SB's. 100 runs scored. I see him perhaps batting behind Nap and ahead of WMB.

     

     



    I'd guess about .350 OBP, .375 SLG, and bottom third UZR/150.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: What are your expectations of Xander offensively and defensively?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to MadMc44's comment:

    In Xander's  first year I feel a .260 BA, 575 AB's, 15 HR's and 60 RBI is reasonable production. Hopefully a .340 OBP. Strong 2 B and 3 B production with his LCF to RCF swing. 25 SB's. 100 runs scored. I see him perhaps batting behind Nap and ahead of WMB.

     

     



    I'd guess about .350 OBP, .375 SLG, and bottom third UZR/150.



    You are vastly under rating athletism. He will be better than a lot of SS but not a good defender.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: What are your expectations of Xander offensively and defensively?

    .345

    .450

    .795

     

    He has very little speed. Maybe 5 steals.

    He will drive the ball all over the park.

    Defensively, poor to very bad, but not terrible. Hopefully to become average to poor in a year or 2.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: What are your expectations of Xander offensively and defensively?

    In response to MadMc44's comment:

    In Xander's  first year I feel a .260 BA, 575 AB's, 15 HR's and 60 RBI is reasonable production. Hopefully a .340 OBP. Strong 2 B and 3 B production with his LCF to RCF swing. 25 SB's. 100 runs scored. I see him perhaps batting behind Nap and ahead of WMB.

     

     



    Xander Bogaerts stole 8 bases between 3 different levels last year; the most he has ever stolen in one season.  Against MLB catchers I seriously doubt he triples that number.

    The rest of your projections are very reasonable, and safe.  Although I think if everything clicks right with him (and it has at ever level so far) that he could be a .280-.300 hitter with 20 HR's and an OBP around .360 or above.

    On the defensive side I expect him to be average.  on the 20-80 scouting scale I've seen his defensive ranking range from 50-55.  50 is average, and he looks athletic enough to play the part.  He is such a great young kid that exceeds expectations at every level, he has the tools to round into a good defender so I think he has a good shot at being in the middle of the pack for defending SS this year.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bill-806. Show Bill-806's posts

    Re: What are your expectations of Xander offensively and defensively?

    All WORLD  S S .......   20 H R's,  BA  of 300+ .......  The real deal  !!!    DREW WHO ??

     
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  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: What are your expectations of Xander offensively and defensively?

    In response to MadMc44's comment:

    In Xander's  first year I feel a .260 BA, 575 AB's, 15 HR's and 60 RBI is reasonable production. Hopefully a .340 OBP. Strong 2 B and 3 B production with his LCF to RCF swing. 25 SB's. 100 runs scored. I see him perhaps batting behind Nap and ahead of WMB. 



    335 OBP, 273 BA, 11 HR's and 72RBI's if he plays on a regular basis.  It may be a higher goal than we should expect but I think he could do it. 

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: What are your expectations of Xander offensively and defensively?

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to MadMc44's comment:

    In Xander's  first year I feel a .260 BA, 575 AB's, 15 HR's and 60 RBI is reasonable production. Hopefully a .340 OBP. Strong 2 B and 3 B production with his LCF to RCF swing. 25 SB's. 100 runs scored. I see him perhaps batting behind Nap and ahead of WMB.

     

     



    I'd guess about .350 OBP, .375 SLG, and bottom third UZR/150.



    You are vastly under rating athletism. He will be better than a lot of SS but not a good defender.



    Bottom third means I think there will be 20+ better fielding SSs than Bogey in 2014- maybe 9 worse.

    Maybe by 2015 he might be middle of the pack.

    I would not bet he ever gets to the top half.

    His athleticism may help him a lot, but I just don't see him getting to above average during his rookie year, if ever. I admit, I do not know for sure. I have not seen Bogey play at SS that often. I hope he surprises me in the same way Drew and Aviles did the past two years.

    In 2013, there were 60 MLb SSs with over 600 innings at the position. Chances are the same 30 will not all get to the top 30 list by innings, but here is the list by UZR/150. How many do you think Bogey is better on defense right now?

    23.9 Simmons

    14.2 Barmes

    12.2 Y Escobar

    12.1 A Escobar

    8.0 Kozma

    7.7 Cozart

    7.6 Tulo

    6.7 Drew

    6.1 Hardy

    5.0 A Ramirez

    5.0 E Andrus

    4.8 Peralta

    4.5 Florimon

    4.4 Desmond

    4.2 Crawford

    3.2 B Ryan

    0.5 H Ramirez

    -1.0 Gregorious

    -1.1 J Segura

    -1.7 E Cabrera

    -2.7 Rollins

    -3.5 S Castro

    -7.5 E Aybar

    -7.5 Quintanilla

    -8.0 Reyes

    -9.2 Lowrie

    -10.0 Hechavarria

    -16.6 Cedeno

    -16.8 A Cabrera

    -40.7 E Nunez

    Now, we can project Jeter being added to this list, who will certainly finish below Bogey, but we should also expect Iggy to be the FT SS in Detroit. Iggy had a UZR/150 of +8.3 in 2013.

    Other good fielding SSs with over 300 innings but less than 600:

    22.1 Punto

    20.4 Penningtong

    6.6 J Nix

    1.1 Kawasaki

    0.5 R Tejada

    I'm not sure if any of these guys will make the top 30 innings list this year.

    Looking at last year's list, I think the best I could place Bogey was 17th- behind Ryan and ahead of HanRam.

     

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: What are your expectations of Xander offensively and defensively?

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to MadMc44's comment:

    In Xander's  first year I feel a .260 BA, 575 AB's, 15 HR's and 60 RBI is reasonable production. Hopefully a .340 OBP. Strong 2 B and 3 B production with his LCF to RCF swing. 25 SB's. 100 runs scored. I see him perhaps batting behind Nap and ahead of WMB. 



    335 OBP, 273 BA, 11 HR's and 72RBI's if he plays on a regular basis.  It may be a higher goal than we should expect but I think he could do it. 



    Getting warmer....   We'll look this up after celebrating another WS Championship in 2014.

    XB   .284 BA,   .367 OBP.  .395 SLG.  .762 OPS.   12 HR,  73 RBI's, 14SB.   82 RS

    Plays an average SS!   With a few bumps.

     

    PLEASE!  Let go of the Drew signing!  There is a reason nobody is scooping him up!!!!!  

     

    MOVEON.SOX

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: What are your expectations of Xander offensively and defensively?

    PLEASE!  Let go off the Drew signing!  There is a reason nobody is scooping him up!!!!!  

    Yes, primarily it is the lost high draft pick, but I'm sure his injury history and high salary demands and years are part of the reason as well.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: What are your expectations of Xander offensively and defensively?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    PLEASE!  Let go off the Drew signing!  There is a reason nobody is scooping him up!!!!!  

    Yes, primarily it is the lost high draft pick, but I'm sure his injury history and high salary demands and years are part of the reason as well.



    I completely agree.  Don't get me wrong.  I like the guy, & would love to have him as a utility backup infielder on short money.  But that ain't gonna happen.  It's gonna be circa 14M & loss of the DP.  Not a good cost / benefit ratio.  I appreciate the hell out of what he gave us, & I don't see us winning in 2013 without his steady hand At SS.  It's simply time to move on with the youth.  BUILD for the future.  Time to find out if WMB can gain some consistency at the plate, & XB needs to grow into the position.  Sitting here listening to Pedey talk him up as I type, confirming exactly what I'm seeing in the kid.  We sign Drew for 14M, we are married to him full time, moving XB to 3rd, & WMB is a part-timer once again.  We can't keep stunting his growth.  Time to get off the pot or shhhhhhhhi_, as it were, with respect to WMB.  His power potential from the right side of the plate has TOO MUCH UP SIDE to keep dixcing about.

    Let's roll with the kids!

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from mthomas43. Show mthomas43's posts

    Re: What are your expectations of Xander offensively and defensively?

    If he gets enough at bats I see BA 280 20 HRs 85 RBIs 80 RS.  I see an average fielder.   Got a feeling he is the starting 3B by July.  Guy is a natural hitter.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: What are your expectations of Xander offensively and defensively?

    In response to redsoxdirtdog's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    PLEASE!  Let go off the Drew signing!  There is a reason nobody is scooping him up!!!!!  

    Yes, primarily it is the lost high draft pick, but I'm sure his injury history and high salary demands and years are part of the reason as well.

     



    I completely agree.  Don't get me wrong.  I like the guy, & would love to have him as a utility backup infielder on short money.  But that ain't gonna happen.  It's gonna be circa 14M & loss of the DP.  Not a good cost / benefit ratio.  I appreciate the hell out of what he gave us, & I don't see us winning in 2013 without his steady hand At SS.  It's simply time to move on with the youth.  BUILD for the future.  Time to find out if WMB can gain some consistency at the plate, & XB needs to grow into the position.  Sitting here listening to Pedey talk him up as I type, confirming exactly what I'm seeing in the kid.  We sign Drew for 14M, we are married to him full time, moving XB to 3rd, & WMB is a part-timer once again.  We can't keep stunting his growth.  Time to get off the pot or shhhhhhhhi_, as it were, with respect to WMB.  His power potential from the right side of the plate has TOO MUCH UP SIDE to keep dixcing about.

     

    Let's roll with the kids!



    I'm not for signing Drew either, but I seriously doubt he gets $14M/1 or even $25M/2.

    I don't want to give up the draft pick and budget space even if we could get Drew at $8M/1 or $15M/2, but it's pretty close.

    BTW, when have we "stunted" WMB's growth? He's been given every chance under the sun to keep the 3B job. Injuries knocked him out in 2012, and injuries combined with subpar play did so in 2013.

    As I said, I'm not for signing Drew, but if we did, I could see this being the set-up:

    1) Bogey starts at 3B in AAA until he gains the extra year in team control.

    2) Bogey starting in AAA gives Middy a long look at the FT 3B job, while Bogey learns the position in a better environment.

    3) When Bogey gets called up, he plays SS vs most LHPs, 2B when Pedey needs a day off here and there, and 3B vs many RHPs. Bogey still gets about 600 PAs between MLB and AAA, Middy gets over 500 PAs, and Drew gets 500-550.

    4) If Napoli or Papi gets hurt, Middy plays 1B or DH, and there's room for everyone. If Drew, bogey, or Middy get hurt or struggle mightily, the other 2 get total FT status. If Pedey gets hurt, soemone plays 2B and opens a FT job for everyone.

     

    I still think we can do better, but adding Drew would help us in 2014. I just don't want to sacrifice the advanced future (Draft pick) and budget flexibility we may need during the 2014 season.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazy-world-of-troybrown. Show crazy-world-of-troybrown's posts

    Re: What are your expectations of Xander offensively and defensively?

    ROY.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc1944. Show MadMc1944's posts

    Re: What are your expectations of Xander offensively and defensively?

    I would give Drew a take it or leave it one year--$5 M + reachable incentives to $10M--no guarantees on PT and no QO for 2015--FA without comp for 2015.

    If they sign Drew---trade WMB ASAP. If Drew stays healthy, and plays well and rids himself of Boras maybe talk extension.

    I like Drew, I like Xander and I like WMB but I also have a good feeling about Cecchini. I do think he could use a full season at AAA before he gets rushed to Fenway. Herrera and Holt are capable defenders to fill in where need be.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: What are your expectations of Xander offensively and defensively?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to MadMc44's comment:

    In Xander's  first year I feel a .260 BA, 575 AB's, 15 HR's and 60 RBI is reasonable production. Hopefully a .340 OBP. Strong 2 B and 3 B production with his LCF to RCF swing. 25 SB's. 100 runs scored. I see him perhaps batting behind Nap and ahead of WMB.

     

     



    I'd guess about .350 OBP, .375 SLG, and bottom third UZR/150.




     

    That's a nice OBP, but very tepid slugging percentage.

    I can only imagine this forum's reaction if Xander posted some of the numbers in this thread - the cries of "bust," "overrated," "trade him ASAP," etc.

    I will be a little more optimistic than some and say .270 BA, .760 OPS, 15 HR, 75 RBI. But I think he may well outperform that.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: What are your expectations of Xander offensively and defensively?

    I think he reaches high teens in HRs, and has a 270 BA. 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from seannybboi. Show seannybboi's posts

    Re: What are your expectations of Xander offensively and defensively?

    Farrell said Vic/Nava combo will likely be used as our leadoff.  Strong ST could slide Boggy into #2 or even #3 spot.  Pedey and Boggy will bat #2 and #3 depending on how Boggy does in ST.  Offensively, Boggy could put up strong numbers and be considered as favorite to win ROY.  Bariing any injuries, Boggy will play 150+ games and have 550+ ABs.  I could see him launching around 20 HRs (18-22), 80 RBI, 90 R, .270/.340/.460/.800 line.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: What are your expectations of Xander offensively and defensively?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to MadMc44's comment:

    In Xander's  first year I feel a .260 BA, 575 AB's, 15 HR's and 60 RBI is reasonable production. Hopefully a .340 OBP. Strong 2 B and 3 B production with his LCF to RCF swing. 25 SB's. 100 runs scored. I see him perhaps batting behind Nap and ahead of WMB.

     

     

     



    I'd guess about .350 OBP, .375 SLG, and bottom third UZR/150.

     




    .375 SLG? did you mean .475?

    .375 is pretty much no/not much power Moon.

     

    Ill go with a line of 280BA 350OBP 450SLG 21HR 70RBI with average, but improving defense and ROTY consideration.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: What are your expectations of Xander offensively and defensively?

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to MadMc44's comment:

    In Xander's  first year I feel a .260 BA, 575 AB's, 15 HR's and 60 RBI is reasonable production. Hopefully a .340 OBP. Strong 2 B and 3 B production with his LCF to RCF swing. 25 SB's. 100 runs scored. I see him perhaps batting behind Nap and ahead of WMB.

     

     



    I'd guess about .350 OBP, .375 SLG, and bottom third UZR/150.




    .375 SLG? did you mean .475?

    .375 is pretty much no/not much power Moon.



    I did not mean .475, but I was too low. I think Bogey will focus more on fielding and getting on base than power his rookie year, so maybe more like .345 OBP/.405 SLG= .750 OPS. I think his numbers will greatly improve over the next few years.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: What are your expectations of Xander offensively and defensively?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to MadMc44's comment:

    In Xander's  first year I feel a .260 BA, 575 AB's, 15 HR's and 60 RBI is reasonable production. Hopefully a .340 OBP. Strong 2 B and 3 B production with his LCF to RCF swing. 25 SB's. 100 runs scored. I see him perhaps batting behind Nap and ahead of WMB.

     

     



    I'd guess about .350 OBP, .375 SLG, and bottom third UZR/150.




    .375 SLG? did you mean .475?

    .375 is pretty much no/not much power Moon.



    I did not mean .475, but I was too low. I think Bogey will focus more on fielding and getting on base than power his rookie year, so maybe more like .345 OBP/.405 SLG= .750 OPS. I think his numbers will greatly improve over the next few years.




    I think you and a few others will be pleasantly surprised with his defense Moon. Ive seen him play a lot the last 2 years. Im not claiming a GG or anything, but like i said about Drew last year, hes better than you think.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from steven11. Show steven11's posts

    Re: What are your expectations of Xander offensively and defensively?

    In response to MadMc44's comment:

    In Xander's  first year I feel a .260 BA, 575 AB's, 15 HR's and 60 RBI is reasonable production. Hopefully a .340 OBP. Strong 2 B and 3 B production with his LCF to RCF swing. 25 SB's. 100 runs scored. I see him perhaps batting behind Nap and ahead of WMB.

     

     




    If Boggie does take over short, he has one of the best second baseman to teach him the ropes. Boggie is athletic and smooth and without a doubt will be better than last year. It is always nice to see a rookie playing.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: What are your expectations of Xander offensively and defensively?

    Texas infielder Jurickson Profar, last year's top MLB prospect who is younger than Xander Bogaerts, posted a .243/.308/.336/.644 line in 324 plate appearances over 85 games in 2013, finishing with a WAR of 1.6:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10815&position=2B

    That WAR might be the 2014 floor for Bogaerts, who probably has more power but less defensive value.

     
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