Re: What Happened to Michael Aviles?
posted at 8/3/2012 2:36 AM EDT
In Response to Re: What Happened to Michael Aviles?
[QUOTE]Aviles has hit better than Scutaro this year False, and wrong as usual. Aviles has been a butcher at SS, and has not fielded "better than expected unless horrific was the expecation.
Posted by TrotterNixon[/QUOTE]
Actually, I did expect pretty close to "horrific" when factoring in range heavily as I do. I thought he might be one of the worst 5 fielding starting SS in MLB this year, and that was the reason I said I would take Iggy over Aviles, even if Iggy ended up hitting .200 to .220 and a bad SLG%. I projected (based on conjecture, since I barely saw Iggy or Aviles play) Iggy might prevent 80-120 hits more than Aviles over 50 games played in 2012.
I have watched every pitch of every game this year, and always watch the SS very closely, since poor SS fielding is a pet peeve of mine. If I was like you, I would have ignored my observations and the stats, and clung to my position that Aviles was a bad fielder, and Iggy would have made a big difference this year. Changing my view does not make me look like a great prognosticator, but unlike you, I'd rather tell the truth than divert, distort, and mangle the facts to make myself look better.
The fact is, Mike Aviles has done a more than respectable job fielding the SS position this year- better than Scutaro did last year or in 2010. Don't go pontificating on the virtues of Scutaro's fielding, because you said he was a "career utility player who had no business being our starting SS" when we first got him.
I have seen Mike make some fantastic plays at SS. He has looked nothing like the small sample size I saw in 2011, and the numbers back it up. You judged on 2011 and some scouting reports, but are too closed minded to notice any changes.
Aviles RF/9 with Boston:
2011 3.48 (3.76 with KC)
His 4.64 career SS RF/9 is not a number associated with "horrific" fielders.
Julio Lugo's is 4.51 (4.21 in 2007's "wire to wire" season).
Renteria's is 4.33 (4.35 in Boston).
Gonzo's is 4.22 (4.36 in 2006 and 3.94 in 2009).
I'm not saying Aviles is better than these guys, but these numbers certainly show he hasn't been "horrific" this season. Yes, he's made some errors, and he has made some mistakes not called errors. All SSs do. Fangraphs has him rated 4th in UZR/150, 3rd in Range, and 2nd in DPR. You may dismiss these numbers, but they are based on people actually watching the games, something you have admitted to not doing.
I'd still tyake Iggy/Chiriaco over Aviles, but not because they are vastly superior defensively, but because they represent a better future and direction for this team. Our staff needs all the help we can get. Mike's offense has not been as good as expected, and has dropped off a cliff recently. The choice today is simple, but not because Mike is a "horrific" fielder: he is not.