What Team Would Have Been More Fun To Watch And Maybe Even Better?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: What Team Would Have Been More Fun To Watch And Maybe Even Better?y

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Numbers do not reflect the playoff value of Schilling and Beckett, but both were proven winners in the clutch. Do we have any of those types on our team now?



    Lackey and Lester have each won World Series finales.  I think Buchholz is capable of rising to an occasion like that.

    Schilling is actually one of the very few pitchers in the last 20 years who has come up big consistently in big games.  Verlander's postseason record is very inconsistent.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: What Team Would Have Been More Fun To Watch And Maybe Even Better?

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    We were not a 74 win base team at the end of 2012. The Pythagorean W-L Record included many games with AGon, C Ross and others on it. The record should be adjusted downwards to reflect those loses and to give us the starting point at which we were to work from this winter.

    I disagree.  If anything, I think it should be adjusted upward to reflect the losses we had with the decimated AAA lineup that we played with the last 2 months of the season.  The team that played before the big trade is  more comparable to the team that will play in 2013, and a better starting point.

     



    Go ahead and compare what you expected our team on paper in Macrh of 2012 to the expectation you have right now for this team.

    Catcher: even

    1B: 2012

    2B: 2012

    3B: 2013

    SS: even

    LF: 2012

    CF: 2012

    RF: even

    DH: 2012

    Lester: 2012

    Buch: 2012

    Doub: 2013

    Beck/Demp: 2012

    Bard/Lackey: 2012

    Pen: 2013

    Manager: 2013

    Bench: 2013

    Forget hindsight, do you really like this team now more than you liked our chances last March? Be honest.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: What Team Would Have Been More Fun To Watch And Maybe Even Better?

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Numbers do not reflect the playoff value of Schilling and Beckett, but both were proven winners in the clutch. Do we have any of those types on our team now?

     



    Lackey and Lester have each won World Series finales.  I think Buchholz is capable of rising to an occasion like that.

     

    Schilling is actually one of the very few pitchers in the last 20 years who has come up big consistently in big games.  Verlander's postseason record is very inconsistent.




    Plus I wouldn't say that Beckett has been a proven clutch winner since 2007.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: What Team Would Have Been More Fun To Watch And Maybe Even Better?

    Sometimes punting is the smart thing to do. Sometimes a punt is an offensive weapon. Sometimes a punt wins. We have a strong defense.

     

    There are so many reasons the Red Sox are going to be dramatically better. Let me count the ways....

     

    1-No Bobbie. That might be worth 5-10 games alone. The team had the worst attitude I have ever seen in baseball. EVERYDAY it seemed like a funeral. Like death. You could smell the stench. When they played Sweet Caroline, it sounded like a dirge. There was a black plague that was hanging in the mist. It wasn't even avoiding Ellspuff. And their lack of fight was obvious both late in games and late in the season. I remember only two comebacks. Watching the games was torture. And that was early in the season. A nightmare from day 1.

     

    2-Luck. This is partly connected to the above Bobbie theory. But only partly. They were 5 games unlucky last year. Five games. With some luck they could gain 10-15 wins alone.

     

    3-The addition of 8 quality players via trade and free agency with the loss of just 1. This could add easily 8-12 wins. I really like most of their additions. Good moves. Good players. A lot more depth too, which will help in case number 4 doesn't go perfectly.......

     

    4-Health. We were very ill last year. Ells, Pedey, Middlebrooks, Lackey etc. This could easily add 7-15 games. Right now, only Papi's health is concerning me. We are off to a good start.

     

    5-Play up to ability. Who played over their heads? I know a number of guys who played under.

     

    6-Magic minor leaguers. Remember how valuable Middlebrooks was? Now multiply that by 4...JBJ, Bogaerts, Webster and RDR. They could add a lot of wins in the middle of the season.

     

    7-Miscellaneous. I think the pitch taking skills are going to be a huge plus. Playing more shift. Better defense at catcher. The Astro's. The Yankees.

     

    Sure, we lost Agon and Beckett. Their 2.4 wins combined between them are gone. My guess is that their replacements will do better then that.

     

    I am going with 90 wins and the division title. If not, we can take advantage of that excellent field position we obtained via our punt and we can sell off a ton at the deadline if we are at 500 or worse and line up on 1st down in 2014 and start again.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: What Team Would Have Been More Fun To Watch And Maybe Even Better?

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Numbers do not reflect the playoff value of Schilling and Beckett, but both were proven winners in the clutch. Do we have any of those types on our team now?

     



    Lackey and Lester have each won World Series finales.  I think Buchholz is capable of rising to an occasion like that.

     

    Schilling is actually one of the very few pitchers in the last 20 years who has come up big consistently in big games.  Verlander's postseason record is very inconsistent.



    Beckett had one of the best post season records in the history of MLB before 2007 although a small sample size. After the 2007 playoffs, one could argue he was an alltime top 5 series SP.

    If you want to think Lester and Lackey are on the same level as Beckett  and Schilling of 2007, then fine. I'm sorry if I don't share your enthusiasm.

    Lester has had a playoff series ERA of over 4.50 in 3 of his career 5 series. He pitched 5.2 Innings of scoreless WS ball. That's it. (14 IP 0 ER vs LAA in 2008 ALDS)

    Lackey's WS line is 12.1 IP  15 hits  5 BBs and 6 ERs (4.38 ERA/1.622 WHIP)

    Beckett  had 16.1 IP vs the Yanks in the WS of 2003 with just 8 H and 5 BB and 19 Ks (1.10 ERA/0.796 WHIP) not to mention 26.1 IP of playoffs leading up to the WS with just 13 hits and 7 BBs and with an astounding 28 Ks.

    Schilling had been to the WS 2 times before 2007: 36.2 IP, 25 Hits, 7 BBs and 10 ERs with 35 Ks.

    The 2007 Sox also had Dice-K (15 wins) and Wake (17 wins) as our 3/4 starters and Lester coming onto the scene.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: What Team Would Have Been More Fun To Watch And Maybe Even Better?

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Numbers do not reflect the playoff value of Schilling and Beckett, but both were proven winners in the clutch. Do we have any of those types on our team now?

     



    Lackey and Lester have each won World Series finales.  I think Buchholz is capable of rising to an occasion like that.

     

    Schilling is actually one of the very few pitchers in the last 20 years who has come up big consistently in big games.  Verlander's postseason record is very inconsistent.

     




    Plus I wouldn't say that Beckett has been a proven clutch winner since 2007.

     



    Never said he was, and I wasn't the one who brought up 2007 to compare.

    Besides, I'd still rather have Beckett in game 7 of the 2013 WS than Dempster, Lackey or Doubront.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: What Team Would Have Been More Fun To Watch And Maybe Even Better?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    The 2007 Sox also had Dice-K (15 wins) and Wake (17 wins) as our 3/4 starters and Lester coming onto the scene.



    Dice and Wake had ERA's of 4.40 and 4.76 that year though.  And Wake was injured.  Lester was a kid with a few MLB games under his belt.

    Schilling was also coming off an injury and was not able to throw nearly as hard.  He was a battle-through-6-innings pitcher at that point.

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: What Team Would Have Been More Fun To Watch And Maybe Even Better?

    Sometimes punting is the smart thing to do. Sometimes a punt is an offensive weapon. Sometimes a punt wins. We have a strong defense.

     

    There are so many reasons the Red Sox are going to be dramatically better.

    Nobody here is projecting 69 wins in 2013.

     

    Let me count the ways....

     

    1-No Bobbie. That might be worth 5-10 games alone. The team had the worst attitude I have ever seen in baseball. EVERYDAY it seemed like a funeral. Like death. You could smell the stench. When they played Sweet Caroline, it sounded like a dirge. There was a black plague that was hanging in the mist. It wasn't even avoiding Ellspuff. And their lack of fight was obvious both late in games and late in the season. I remember only two comebacks. Watching the games was torture. And that was early in the season. A nightmare from day 1.

    Losing breeds a poor attitude. Nobody complained about Beckett's attitude after his masterful 2007 playoff run.

    I agree though, our manager and attitude should be much better this year.

     

    2-Luck. This is partly connected to the above Bobbie theory. But only partly. They were 5 games unlucky last year. Five games. With some luck they could gain 10-15 wins alone.

    What 5 games? Why should our luck be much better this year?

     

    3-The addition of 8 quality players via trade and free agency with the loss of just 1.

    No AGon. No Cody Ross. That's 2. No Beckett and CC. Yeah, they didn't help much in 2012, but Josh did in 2007, 2009, and 2011.

    This could add easily 8-12 wins. I really like most of their additions. Good moves. Good players. A lot more depth too, which will help in case number 4 doesn't go perfectly.......

    Our depth did great last year: Middlebrooks, Ross, Ciriaco, Pods...

     

    4-Health. We were very ill last year. Ells, Pedey, Middlebrooks, Lackey etc. This could easily add 7-15 games. Right now, only Papi's health is concerning me. We are off to a good start.

    It looks like 5 g4ys might start on the DL: Papi, Drew, Breslow, and Morales. We added old players. We added players with serious injuries. We did not get younger.

     

    5-Play up to ability. Who played over their heads? I know a number of guys who played under.

    Expecting everyone to play to their ability is setting yourself up to be dissapointed.

     

    6-Magic minor leaguers. Remember how valuable Middlebrooks was? Now multiply that by 4...JBJ, Bogaerts, Webster and RDR. They could add a lot of wins in the middle of the season.

    I hope so, and you left our Iggy.

     

    7-Miscellaneous. I think the pitch taking skills are going to be a huge plus. Playing more shift. Better defense at catcher. The Astro's. The Yankees.

    More AL teams improved than got worse.

     

    Sure, we lost Agon and Beckett. Their 2.4 wins combined between them are gone. My guess is that their replacements will do better then that.

    Naps and Dempster will do better? I hope so.

     

    I am going with 90 wins and the division title. If not, we can take advantage of that excellent field position we obtained via our punt and we can sell off a ton at the deadline if we are at 500 or worse and line up on 1st down in 2014 and start again.

    What if we are close enough to not be sellers, and then miss the playoffs. We'll have nothing to show for this winter, just a draft pick for the departing Ellsbury, and aging players getting paid big money still under contract for a year or two more. We'd have missed a year to improve. Yes, we'll have a better understanding of what kids we can count on, but that's not getting better.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: What Team Would Have Been More Fun To Watch And Maybe Even Better?

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    The 2007 Sox also had Dice-K (15 wins) and Wake (17 wins) as our 3/4 starters and Lester coming onto the scene.

     



    Dice and Wake had ERA's of 4.40 and 4.76 that year though.  And Wake was injured.  Lester was a kid with a few MLB games under his belt.

     

    Schilling was also coming off an injury and was not able to throw nearly as hard.  He was a battle-through-6-innings pitcher at that point.

     



    So, you'd go with this staff over that one? (Not to mention the offense disparity.)

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: What Team Would Have Been More Fun To Watch And Maybe Even Better?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:


    So, you'd go with this staff over that one? (Not to mention the offense disparity.)




    No, I never said anything about preferring this rotation.  I'm just trying to point out that you don't need a dominating rotation in the playoffs to win it all.  You probably need one starter who is pitching at ace level (like Schilling in '04 and Beckett in '07), and the rest you piece together.  A good bullpen is extremely important in the postseason. It all comes down to finding a way to win 11 games (12 if you're second wild card.)

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: What Team Would Have Been More Fun To Watch And Maybe Even Better?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Go ahead and compare what you expected our team on paper in Macrh of 2012 to the expectation you have right now for this team.

     

    First, those "expectations" from 2012 involved the "expectation" of making the playoffs. So if we even break even then we should "expect" to make the playoffs.

    Catcher: even-----I am expecting more from catcher then I expected before 2012. Aren't you? Why not? Ross is better then Shopach. And you think Salty has improved a lot defensively. And who expected 25 dingers from Salty?

    1B: 2012------Yes.

    2B: 2012------Yes, but by 2%.

    3B: 2013------Yes.

    SS: even-------No. I expect more from Drew then whats his name. And more from our backups too.

    LF: 2012-------No. Even at worst.

    CF: 2012-------Yes, but not by much.

    RF: even-------No. Victorino>Sweeney. A guy making 13 million doesn't have more expectations then Sweeney? Come on.

    DH: 2012------Yes, but like with Pedey and Ells, its the same guy.

    Lester: 2012---If you had asked me this 2 weeks ago, I agree. Now at worst its even and I am expecting more from Lester then I did going into last year. I was having doubts back then. Soooooo, no.

    Buch: 2012----No. I am calling it even. Buch had some doubts going into 2012 health wise and was coming off a poor finish. This year he is coming off a good finish and doesn't have the health concerns.

    Doub: 2013----Yes.

    Beck/Demp: 2012----I will give you this, but I think its kind of close. Beckett's velocity was dipping even in 2011. Beckett has always been on or OFF. And I consider Dempster a quality number 2.

    Bard/Lackey: 2012----I am not so sure I would have looked at it as more even.

    Pen: 2013-----Yes.

    Manager: 2013----Yes.

    Bench: 2013-----Yes.

    Forget hindsight, do you really like this team now more than you liked our chances last March? Be honest.

    I have it 7-5-4, advantage 2013.




     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: What Team Would Have Been More Fun To Watch And Maybe Even Better?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    What 5 games? Why should our luck be much better this year?

     

    The 5 games of unluck. And luck is unpredictable. But the law of averages says we should gain 5 games and be of average luck. This is what should be "expected" to start with.

     

     

    No AGon. No Cody Ross. That's 2. No Beckett and CC. Yeah, they didn't help much in 2012, but Josh did in 2007, 2009, and 2011.

     

    I was comparing to the end season roster. And I gave you the 2.4 wins from Agon and Beckett in the end of my post. So its 8-1, plus 2.4 wins from those two.

     

    Our depth did great last year: Middlebrooks, Ross, Ciriaco, Pods...

     

    We added 8 new guys that all are much better players then the Pods of the world. A great Pods is still a Pods. Our depth is much improved.

     

    It looks like 5 g4ys might start on the DL: Papi, Drew, Breslow, and Morales. We added old players. We added players with serious injuries. We did not get younger.

     

     

    I am not sweatin the loss of Breslow[who I don't like] or our number 6 starter. I did forget about Drews injury though.

     

     

    Expecting everyone to play to their ability is setting yourself up to be dissapointed.

     

    I am not expecting everyone to play up to their ability. Just have the team play more up to their ability then last season. Don't you?

     

     

    More AL teams improved than got worse.

     

    Don't agree with this. Only Toronto has improved in the A.L. East. And Texas is worse. And every year, most teams improve on paper or fall behind. A tiny improvement is no improvement.

     

    Naps and Dempster will do better? I hope so.

     

     

    Better then 2.4 wins between them. You betcha.

     

    What if we are close enough to not be sellers, and then miss the playoffs. We'll have nothing to show for this winter, just a draft pick for the departing Ellsbury, and aging players getting paid big money still under contract for a year or two more. We'd have missed a year to improve. Yes, we'll have a better understanding of what kids we can count on, but that's not getting better.

     




     

    This is an excellent point. We could fall inbetween and have to make a tough decision. They might punt again. Then I think you can rightfully gripe about the strategy.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: What Team Would Have Been More Fun To Watch And Maybe Even Better?

    Go ahead and compare what you expected our team on paper in Macrh of 2012 to the expectation you have right now for this team.

    Forget hindsight, do you really like this team now more than you liked our chances last March? Be honest.

    No, I don't like this team more than I liked our team before last season. I think I either predicted 92 or 94 wins for last year's team. I'm not sure what that has to do with how they actually performed, though. I DO like this year's team a lot better than the way the team performed last year.

    Before the trade, the team was 59-66, a .472 winning %. Over a full season, that would be 76 wins. This was way under most people's expectations, even with Beckett, Gonzalez, and Crawford on the team. Replacing their performances from last year will not be that difficult, Gonzalez' being the hardest to replace.

    After the trade, they were 10-27, a .270 winning %. Over a full season, that would be 44 wins. That's not even replacement level according to B-R's formula. IMO, basing a starting point off losses incurred over those last 2 months is unrealistic. The team was not as bad as their 69 wins.

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: What Team Would Have Been More Fun To Watch And Maybe Even Better?

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    Go ahead and compare what you expected our team on paper in Macrh of 2012 to the expectation you have right now for this team.

    Forget hindsight, do you really like this team now more than you liked our chances last March? Be honest.

    No, I don't like this team more than I liked our team before last season. I think I either predicted 92 or 94 wins for last year's team. I'm not sure what that has to do with how they actually performed, though. I DO like this year's team a lot better than the way the team performed last year.

    Before the trade, the team was 59-66, a .472 winning %. Over a full season, that would be 76 wins. This was way under most people's expectations, even with Beckett, Gonzalez, and Crawford on the team. Replacing their performances from last year will not be that difficult, Gonzalez' being the hardest to replace.

    After the trade, they were 10-27, a .270 winning %. Over a full season, that would be 44 wins. That's not even replacement level according to B-R's formula. IMO, basing a starting point off losses incurred over those last 2 months is unrealistic. The team was not as bad as their 69 wins.

     



    We also have to replace Cody Ross- one of our best OPS and RBI guys last year, particularly late & close.

    Mike Aviles did surprisingly well defensively and had 60 RBIs in 136 games.

    Podsednick batted .302 in over 200 PAs.

    Shoppach had a .798 OPS, which rates to be better than D Ross.

    Yes, replacing CC, Cook, Dice-K, the 2012 Beckett, and Melancon should be easy to improve on, but we also lost the 2011 Beckett, Atchison (1.58 ERA), Padilla (better than his 4.50 ERA indicated), and Albers (2.29).

    There is no doubt we will do better than 69 wins, but we lsot some good talent and replaced it with decent to good talent. I doubt it will be more than a 15 game boost, but it is possible.

     

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: What Team Would Have Been More Fun To Watch And Maybe Even Better?

    First, those "expectations" from 2012 involved the "expectation" of making the playoffs. So if we even break even then we should "expect" to make the playoffs.

    We are not even, so I don't agree.

     

    Catcher: even-----I am expecting more from catcher then I expected before 2012. Aren't you? Why not? Ross is better then Shopach. And you think Salty has improved a lot defensively. And who expected 25 dingers from Salty?

    I did, and I posted it last spring. I also do not expect Ross to match Shoppach's OPS, and Shopp was a good defensive catcher too.

     

    1B: 2012------Yes.

    2B: 2012------Yes, but by 2%.

    3B: 2013------Yes.

    SS: even-------No. I expect more from Drew then whats his name. And more from our backups too.

    I do not expect Drew ro play as well as Aviles/Ciriaco/Iggy

     

    LF: 2012-------No. Even at worst.

    You expected CC to play badly in 2012? Plus, we may have to use Gomes at DH not LF. OK, call it even.

     

    CF: 2012-------Yes, but not by much.

    RF: even-------No. Victorino>Sweeney. A guy making 13 million doesn't have more expectations then Sweeney? Come on.

    The expectation was a platoon of Sweeney and Ross. At the time Sweeney was decent vs RHPs and Ross killed LHPs.  SV is old, stinks vs RHPs, and we have nobody to sub for him in those 65% of the games. Even is being generous.

     

    DH: 2012------Yes, but like with Pedey and Ells, its the same guy.

    Yes, and older and starting off on the DL.

     

    Lester: 2012---If you had asked me this 2 weeks ago, I agree. Now at worst its even and I am expecting more from Lester then I did going into last year. I was having doubts back then. Soooooo, no.

    Based on ST 2013? Lester had very high expectations for 2012 last March. Even at best.

     

    Buch: 2012----No. I am calling it even. Buch had some doubts going into 2012 health wise and was coming off a poor finish. This year he is coming off a good finish and doesn't have the health concerns.

    His health concerns are more now than last spring.

     

    Doub: 2013----Yes.

    Beck/Demp: 2012----I will give you this, but I think its kind of close. Beckett's velocity was dipping even in 2011. Beckett has always been on or OFF. And I consider Dempster a quality number 2.

    Bard/Lackey: 2012----I am not so sure I would have looked at it as more even.

    Pen: 2013-----Yes.

    Manager: 2013----Yes.

    Bench: 2013-----Yes.

    Forget hindsight, do you really like this team now more than you liked our chances last March? Be honest.

    I have it 7-5-4, advantage 2013.

    So, I take that as a yes.



     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: What Team Would Have Been More Fun To Watch And Maybe Even Better?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Buch: 2012----No. I am calling it even. Buch had some doubts going into 2012 health wise and was coming off a poor finish. This year he is coming off a good finish and doesn't have the health concerns.

    His health concerns are more now than last spring.



    Huh?  What health concerns are there for Buch?

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: What Team Would Have Been More Fun To Watch And Maybe Even Better?

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Buch: 2012----No. I am calling it even. Buch had some doubts going into 2012 health wise and was coming off a poor finish. This year he is coming off a good finish and doesn't have the health concerns.

    His health concerns are more now than last spring.

     



    Huh?  What health concerns are there for Buch?

     




    Yeah, I kinda scratched my head on that one too. Is there something wrong I didnt hear about?

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: What Team Would Have Been More Fun To Watch And Maybe Even Better?

    Catcher-You have done numerous posts about the in season improvement of Salty on defense. Now you don't want to mention it? As for Shopach vs. Ross, who is the better player? We got Shoppach for about 1.5 million for 1 year. He was coming off a .607 OPS. Ross cost 3 million for 2 years and is coming off a .770. Hope advantage........this season. Would you trade Ross for Shopach? Better question, would you trade Ross for the 2011 version of Shopach?

     

    SS-----This is not about what the SS's did. Its about what we were expecting. And I expect more from Drew this year then I expected from Aviles last year. Aviles was acquired for a song and a dance and I had huge doubts about his defense. Drew signed for nearly 10 million and I expect 90% of the old Drew this year. I bet if the Cardinals had a choice right now for their new SS, they would pick Drew now vs. Aviles from 2011. I think most people and teams would.

     

    RF-LF-------If we expected Carl Crawford to be healthy, you are right. I think at this stage of Spring training in 2012, things were not looking that rosey .Count on Crawford and you are right. Don't count on Crawford and 2013 looks better in both RF and LF. Truthfully, Crawford had so many injuries and set backs I can't recall precisely how much time he was supposed to miss at this stage of spring training. Let me add, I am "expecting" JBJ to be the starting LF fairly early this season. And I consider JBJ a more patient version of Carl Crawford. JBJ can go the other way better. Better arm. Probably better defense. Has a better attitude. He might be expected to be better as a rookie as we should have expected from Crawford coming off TWO serious surgeries.

    Lester----Lester was coming off a bad September 2011. He lost velocity. He had an OK spring. Now he has his pitching coach back and has had a great spring. I am fine with a call of even though.

     

    Buch-----What health concerns?


    After adjusting Lester to even and recounting more accurately, I have it 8-5-4 advantage 2013. I guess it all depends on the Crawford expectations.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: What Team Would Have Been More Fun To Watch And Maybe Even Better?

    Look as Yogi said Pitching is 90% of the game and the other half is the offense - or something like that? Been saying it all winter and previous winters on this board. RS will go as far as their pitching takes them. RS offense will score enough runs to be a playoff team or even a WS team [not saying they'll be in WS]. Look no farther than SF Giants as perfect example other than B.Posey and Sandoval who scares you in that lineup? Or the Cardinals of 2 seasons ago can the RS match up offensively w/ the likes of Freese / Holliday/Craig/Molina of course. Problem is can they pitch like them?

    Reasons for optimism-

    Return of Farrell- Since John Farrell left RS pitching staff has seen 3 pitching coaches in 2 seasons. Think the decline in staff had something to do w/ all the new voices? Farrell had the respect of every pitcher during his time here as pitching coach. His return can only help the staff.

    Juan Nieves- Picked by Farrell and respected thru out the league.

    Salty- while I'm not the biggest fan of Salty's behind the plate defensively and calling a game. Think having Farrell back in dug out can only help Salty. Also having Tek back around the club can't hurt either. Plus the fact that he's now entering his 3rd full season as a starter can only help him in knowing the staff and being more comfortable. Plus we'll have Ross to possibly catch 60-70 games won't hurt either. But do believe that Salty has a chance to really break out this yr offensively.

    No Bob V- I was not in favor of move, have met him previously in his restaurant in Stamford and had just as big an ego there as he did in dugout and knew that would not go over well w/ media in Boston. Good Riddance!

    Pitching staff- really believe this staff could turn out to be pretty good. Pen has makings of being very good. Could see bounce back years from both Lester and Buchholz based on their ST work so far. Dempster and Lackey should be far better than anything we got out of Matsuzaka, Cook, Weiland, etc.. the last couple years [14-10 or 12-11 type yrs]. But the key for me does Doubront take the next step? Possible for a 15 win season not unrealistic based on what he did last yr, but must get deeper into games. If he does this staff could be pretty darn good. Disappointed he did not come to camp in better shape, but must admit has pitched pretty well of late in ST.

    Depth- But what I really like is the depth of starters the RS now have. In yrs past when a starter or 2 went down we were stuck w/ the Beddard/Cook/Weiland/Wakefield/Germano/ Tazawa/ Miller/Stewart filling in and pitching terribly the last 2 yrs. But this yr if someone went down who wouldn't be excited for a Webster / De La Rosa or possibly even a Barnes being called up to fill that spot. Even a Steven Wright start or 2 wouldn't be as bad.

    While I do believe the RS are a David Price away from being a WS team, 85 wins is not unrealistic, lets not forget they were a 90 win team almost every yr since 03 til last year. So 85 w/ Naps taking Agons place, and Dempster for Beckett not unrealistic. But must stay healthy for a change. But I'll admit I'm an optimist!

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: What Team Would Have Been More Fun To Watch And Maybe Even Better?

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Buch: 2012----No. I am calling it even. Buch had some doubts going into 2012 health wise and was coming off a poor finish. This year he is coming off a good finish and doesn't have the health concerns.

    His health concerns are more now than last spring.

     



    Huh?  What health concerns are there for Buch?

     

     




    Yeah, I kinda scratched my head on that one too. Is there something wrong I didnt hear about?

     



    Back injuries do not usually just go away. Maybe for a little while, but they almost always come back. 

    He had a stress fracture in his back. If that does not concern you at all, I do not know anything more to say, but my point is, why does anyone feel more confident about Buch now rather than this time last year?

    I'm Ok with calling it even, but I see no reason to feel better now than last year.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: What Team Would Have Been More Fun To Watch And Maybe Even Better?

    Catcher-You have done numerous posts about the in season improvement of Salty on defense. Now you don't want to mention it? As for Shopach vs. Ross, who is the better player? We got Shoppach for about 1.5 million for 1 year. He was coming off a .607 OPS. Ross cost 3 million for 2 years and is coming off a .770. Hope advantage........this season. Would you trade Ross for Shopach? Better question, would you trade Ross for the 2011 version of Shopach?

    I'm going by what I expected last year. I posted my expectations with specific numbers, so I'm not just making this up as I go along. I'm fine with you guys disagreeing, but I had our catchers hitting 30 HRs last year (projected). Shoppach had awesome numbers vs LHPs in the previous 3 years before coming here, and I also had high expectations for Lava. Salty has much better numbers vs RHPs, and I do not feel Ross is as good against LHPs as Shoppach's numbers were from 2009-2011. Shoppach also had a very good defensive reputation.

    I do think Salty will be better in 2013 than I thought he'd be in 2012, but I had higher expectations for Shopp vs LHPs and Lava as the 3rd man, than I do for Ross and Lava now. It's a close call. (We may also see Salty DH some this year.)

     

    SS-----This is not about what the SS's did. Its about what we were expecting. And I expect more from Drew this year then I expected from Aviles last year. Aviles was acquired for a song and a dance and I had huge doubts about his defense. Drew signed for nearly 10 million and I expect 90% of the old Drew this year. I bet if the Cardinals had a choice right now for their new SS, they would pick Drew now vs. Aviles from 2011. I think most people and teams would.

    I was begging for Iggy last year too. I liked Aviles as a hitter last March, and I have no higher expectations for Drew on offense this year. I do not think Drew is as good a fielder as Aviles, and he's a huge injury risk with a pin in his foot. If I knew Iggy would be our FT SS all year, I'd feel better about our 2013 SS over 2012.

     

    RF-LF-------If we expected Carl Crawford to be healthy, you are right. I think at this stage of Spring training in 2012, things were not looking that rosey .Count on Crawford and you are right. Don't count on Crawford and 2013 looks better in both RF and LF. Truthfully, Crawford had so many injuries and set backs I can't recall precisely how much time he was supposed to miss at this stage of spring training. Let me add, I am "expecting" JBJ to be the starting LF fairly early this season. And I consider JBJ a more patient version of Carl Crawford. JBJ can go the other way better. Better arm. Probably better defense. Has a better attitude. He might be expected to be better as a rookie as we should have expected from Crawford coming off TWO serious surgeries.

    I was also a huge Cody Ross fan, and when we signed him, I was highly praising him for his offense, especially vs LHPs. I also liked Sweeney's defense and decent numbers vs RHPs. While I was down on the CC signing from day one, I said on numerous occaisons that I felt he would revert to his career norm in 2012. I was wrong, but in March I expected more from him, Ross and Sweeney than I do for SV, Gomes, Nava and Carp. Gomes may DH, and we may end up using JBJ. If so, I might change my rating, but I see no evidence of Ben going with JBJ in any significant way this year unless by force of injury. I wouldn't be surprised if he signs a Pods type before using JBJ.

     

    Lester----Lester was coming off a bad September 2011. He lost velocity. He had an OK spring. Now he has his pitching coach back and has had a great spring. I am fine with a call of even though.

    Tough call. I wasn't down on Lester last winter like many here were. He only had 2-3 bad starts. His velocity was down, but I still had high expectations. The guy just had a 4.82 ERA last year, I'm sorry, but that lowers my 2013 expectations.

     

    Buch-----What health concerns?

    His back. His 4.52 2012 ERA. (Both he and Lester had higher WHIP as well.)


    After adjusting Lester to even and recounting more accurately, I have it 8-5-4 advantage 2013. I guess it all depends on the Crawford expectations.

    I might agree to adjust my 5-3-7 to 5-5-5, but I don't count the manager and Bench equally to SPs and other slots. Plus, I admit I was wrong last year, and I have learned from that mistake.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: What Team Would Have Been More Fun To Watch And Maybe Even Better?

    Moonslav59......

     

    Catcher---You make an excellent point about the platoon splits. Still believe Ross>Shopach. But thats me.

     

    SS---I and most had serious questions about Aviles defense going into last year. Drew>Aviles.

     

    LF----It sure seems to me like the Sox are going to go with JBJ by June at the latest. We will see.

     

    Buch-Back----I had a serious back injury about 15 years ago. My back is much better then it was a couple of years after the injury. One thing is I have learned how to treat it and what it can handle. Plus, stress fractures in most bones heal and are 100% down the line. I have more confidence in Buch's health now then in 2012 spring training.

     

    SP----Agree with SP being the key to success in baseball. However, I like our staff every bit as much as I did in March 2012. Not much more. But at least as much and maybe a bit more. Maybe I am putting some stock in Spring training stats and that is a mistake on my part. We will see. 

     
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  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: What Team Would Have Been More Fun To Watch And Maybe Even Better?

    In response to BMav's comment:

    Moonslav59......

     

    Catcher---You make an excellent point about the platoon splits. Still believe Ross>Shopach. But thats me.

    It could be, but my expectations were very high for our catcher offense last March. I was worried about Salty's defense, so it's pretty close this year.

    I am happy with our catchers.

     

    SS---I and most had serious questions about Aviles defense going into last year. Drew>Aviles.

    Drew is a huge question mark. His health has been a mess. His fielding is among the worst in the last deacde, and now he has a pin in his ankle. 

    He has the potential to be better than Mike can ever be, but I do not think any higher of Drew than I did about Aviles last year.

     

    LF----It sure seems to me like the Sox are going to go with JBJ by June at the latest. We will see.

    Then, I will change my call, but unless Papi stays hurt, Gomes will be in LF.

     

    Buch-Back----I had a serious back injury about 15 years ago. My back is much better then it was a couple of years after the injury. One thing is I have learned how to treat it and what it can handle. Plus, stress fractures in most bones heal and are 100% down the line. I have more confidence in Buch's health now then in 2012 spring training.

    Based on what? His 4.56 ERA? His 1.326 WHIP?

    As compared to 3.48/ 1.294 after 2011? It's not even close here. People were calling Buch our ace last March.

     

    SP----Agree with SP being the key to success in baseball. However, I like our staff every bit as much as I did in March 2012. Not much more. But at least as much and maybe a bit more. Maybe I am putting some stock in Spring training stats and that is a mistake on my part. We will see. 




    There is no way anyone can honestly say they did not have higher expectations for our rotation last March than now. Our pen looks a lot better, but not enough to outweigh the SP'ers.

    Last March, people were rejoicing in the fact that Lackey was not pitching, now they are praising him.

    Dempster is no Beckett.

    Doubront is a wild card.

    Lester and Buch were coming off much better seasons in 2011 than 2012. It's a joke to pretend they have higher expectations now than then.

    People were gah gah over Bard or Aceves as starters last March. 

    Our pen was highly suspect with the loss of Papelbon, but come on, out total staff outlook was much higher last March. This isn't even close.

     
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