Greinke & A Sanchez were 29

(Both will be younger than Dempster is now during their last year of their deals.)

 

E Jackson & B McCarthy are 29 as well

 

BJ Upton 28 (He'll be as old is Shane during his 4th of the 5 year deal.)

 

Melky Cab was 28

 

There were choices this year, some too expensive, some big gambles, and some for 5+ years, but the fact is, Ben did choose older FAs.

In response to moonslav59's comment:

Why should you feel more confident about this yr than last yr? 

Because we saw what last yr brought us. 

I think you're over-rating Beckett, over-rating AGone. Don't think you've ever been guilty of over-rating CC. ;) 

1) got rid of a LF that never really playedV& was horrible the 3 months he did. 

2) rid of 1B that never matched expectations.

3) rid of a SP on the decline & one I never personally wanted to re-sign in the first place. 

4) rid of a shoddy manager & got someone familiar/great history w/ team.

5) got some proven players on the flip.

6) kept young talent we might need if/when injury bug comes back again ( apparently its already happening).

7) maybe a FULL season of Pedroia, WMB, Ellsbury Buch.

8) a real RFer ( Ells can play more center-left ).

9) Better Bp

10) Better @ C

20 more wins, Hold me to it. 

 

 

 

In response to moonslav59's comment:

He pitched all last year with no issues, except the stomach thing that the toradol caused...If he had some reoccurring back issues then yeah, Id be concerned. Hes had no signs of any issues for over a year now.

Shouldnt we be arguing if are expectations for this year are more than our RESULTS last year than what our expectations were last year?

I mean, I get what were doing here, but I think it would be more productive if we based our expectations on last years final results.

In response to southpaw777's comment:

It's difficult to compare this team to last year's team, becuase we had basically 2 teams: the pre Dodger trade team and the post trade team, not to mention all the injuries.

If we compare to the post Dodger trade team, then the team was more like a 50 win team than a 69 win team, so we our improvements enough to improve by 40 games?

If we compare to the pre Dodger trade team with a normal amount of injuries, maybe we would have been an 85 win team not 69. I don't think we are as good (on paper) as last year's team coming out of ST (with the outlook that hurt players would return- exept Lackey).

It's really hard to compare either way, but to me, it's more realistic to compare our expectation now vs our expectation a year ago today, and then try to project injuries and other factors.

I get your point, though.

Why should you feel more confident about this yr than last yr? 

Because we saw what last yr brought us. 

I think you're over-rating Beckett, over-rating AGone. Don't think you've ever been guilty of over-rating CC. ;)

I admit I seem to value Beckett more than most Sox fans.  I think I actually undervalue AGon as compared to most here. I never wanted CC, but did think he's put up near career norm numbers for 1-2 years then slowly decline: my issue was we ddin't need a lefty OF'er, and he was ovepaid by over $50M.

 

1) got rid of a LF that never really playedV& was horrible the 3 months he did. 

Icalled the Dodger trade perhaps the "best deal of my lifetime".

 

2) rid of 1B that never matched expectations.

I expect more from AGon than Naps.

 

3) rid of a SP on the decline & one I never personally wanted to re-sign in the first place. 

It's an odd year in 2013, so let's see. I'm OK with a pitcher who is great every other year vs the ones we have who are never great.

 

4) rid of a shoddy manager & got someone familiar/great history w/ team.

Let's see.

 

5) got some proven players on the flip.

Proven mediocre, past prime, and overpaid.

 

6) kept young talent we might need if/when injury bug comes back again ( apparently its already happening).

Loved keeping the kids, but hoped we had added more.

 

7) maybe a FULL season of Pedroia, WMB, Ellsbury Buch.

Maybe, but hten maybe injuries elsewhere. I'd done counting on perfect health to have a remote chance.

 

8) a real RFer ( Ells can play more center-left ).

It's his first year there, and he stinks vs RHPs. I'm not drinking that Kool-Aid.

 

9) Better Bp

Yes, but one never knows with a pen.

 

10) Better @ C

Shoppach gave us great numbers that we can hope Ross matches.

 

20 more wins, Hold me to it. 

I will.  13-15 more wins: hold me to it.

Back injuries do not usually just go away. Maybe for a little while, but they almost always come back. 

 

He had a stress fracture in his back. If that does not concern you at all, I do not know anything more to say, but my point is, why does anyone feel more confident about Buch now rather than this time last year?

I'm Ok with calling it even, but I see no reason to feel better now than last year.

 

He pitched all last year with no issues, except the stomach thing that the toradol caused...If he had some reoccurring back issues then yeah, Id be concerned. Hes had no signs of any issues for over a year now.

 

I have had severe back issues for over 20 years. They can come and go for long stretches. I hope for the best, but am always wondering.

Beckett had some back issues in his time with us.

In response to moonslav59's comment:

I'm sorry, but comparing "back issues" is just ridiculous.

In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

He sure did.

In response to ThefourBs' comment:

I'm not. I'm just saying that many people with back injuries know taht you can feel great for months and years, and then poof. 

It may never come back to Clay, and I hope it doesn't, and I'm not claiming my issues are related to his, but a back injury is worse than an ankle sprain.

In response to carnie's comment:

...and the issues kept coming back again and again, didn't they?

In response to moonslav59's comment:

Yet you've expressed confidence that Beckett will have a very good year and are very concerned about Clay. I think that was the point that Halifax was trying to make.

In response to moonslav59's comment:

A muscle strain isn't as serious as a stress fracture, which isn't as bad as a herniated disc.

There's a wide range of back problems.

Not all of them are chronic.

 

Bucchohlz is in no more danger of reoccurance than an athete with a pulled hammy, as long as he keeps up with a exercise program that strengthens his back and abdominal muscles.

In response to moonslav59's comment:

 

In response to BMav's comment:

 

Moonslav59......

 

Catcher---You make an excellent point about the platoon splits. Still believe Ross>Shopach. But thats me.

It could be, but my expectations were very high for our catcher offense last March. I was worried about Salty's defense, so it's pretty close this year.

I am happy with our catchers.

 

SS---I and most had serious questions about Aviles defense going into last year. Drew>Aviles.

Drew is a huge question mark. His health has been a mess. His fielding is among the worst in the last deacde, and now he has a pin in his ankle. 

He has the potential to be better than Mike can ever be, but I do not think any higher of Drew than I did about Aviles last year.

 

LF----It sure seems to me like the Sox are going to go with JBJ by June at the latest. We will see.

Then, I will change my call, but unless Papi stays hurt, Gomes will be in LF.

 

Buch-Back----I had a serious back injury about 15 years ago. My back is much better then it was a couple of years after the injury. One thing is I have learned how to treat it and what it can handle. Plus, stress fractures in most bones heal and are 100% down the line. I have more confidence in Buch's health now then in 2012 spring training.

Based on what? His 4.56 ERA? His 1.326 WHIP?

As compared to 3.48/ 1.294 after 2011? It's not even close here. People were calling Buch our ace last March.

 

SP----Agree with SP being the key to success in baseball. However, I like our staff every bit as much as I did in March 2012. Not much more. But at least as much and maybe a bit more. Maybe I am putting some stock in Spring training stats and that is a mistake on my part. We will see. 

 

 

There is no way anyone can honestly say they did not have higher expectations for our rotation last March than now. Our pen looks a lot better, but not enough to outweigh the SP'ers.

Last March, people were rejoicing in the fact that Lackey was not pitching, now they are praising him.

Dempster is no Beckett.

Doubront is a wild card.

Lester and Buch were coming off much better seasons in 2011 than 2012. It's a joke to pretend they have higher expectations now than then.

People were gah gah over Bard or Aceves as starters last March. 

Our pen was highly suspect with the loss of Papelbon, but come on, out total staff outlook was much higher last March. This isn't even close.

 

Sorry, but I disagree with this whole statement. Speaking for myself, I wasnt comfortable with our rotation last year for a few reasons. The way 2011 ended, we had a rookie (Doubie) who came to camp the year before completely out of shape, and Bard, who stunk last time he started. Sure, I was being optimistic, but that didnt mean I wasnt without a few doubts. Buch ended the year on the DL. Lester didnt finish well and Paps left, leaving us with no closer besides an oft injured one (Bailey) who got injured last march. Go figure. I wasnt any where near "gah gah" with the notion of Bard and Aceves in the rotation at all, and certainly not with Aceves closing...

 

I can honestly say I feel a LOT better this year than I did about our rotation and bullpen last year at this time, and I am more optimistic than I was last year as well...

But thats just me.

In response to southpaw777's comment:

The way I remember it the general mood going into last year was not great at all.  People were angry about the collapse and the chicken and beer stuff.  The reaction to Valentine's hiring was mixed to say the least.  Many were unimpressed with Cherington's offseason trades for Bailey and Melancon.  There was a lot of talk about the need to 'clean house', starting with unloading Beckett for whatever we could get.  Most people didn't know what to think about Bard becoming a starter.  There were pockets of optimism, of course, but I think overall it was not an optimistic fandom.

I still remember Schilling predicting that the season was going to be like the voyage of the Titanic.  He nailed that one.

In response to carnie's comment:

I never came close to expressing confidence Beckett would have a very good year. I said I'd rather have a pitcher who is great every other year than a mediocre one. I have mentioned the odd year thing, and I would bet Beckett has a better year than Dempster (even after adjusting for park & league), but I am niot "confident" in Beckett or any of our starters this year.

If we had Beckett this year, I'd be concerned about his health more than Buch's due to age and more history, but my pooint is simply this: I worry about Buch's back issue certainly more than I do for pitchers with no back injury history. I never said I am counting on him missing time this year, but the back issue and his poor overall 2012 season makes him a question mark with high upside for 2013. I don't get why so many people are acting like I am saying he is destined to fail in 2013 or something.

Bucchohlz is in no more danger of reoccurance than an athete with a pulled hammy, as long as he keeps up with a exercise program that strengthens his back and abdominal muscles.

 

Seriously? A stress fracture to the lower back in what, August of 2011 is equal to a hammy pull?

 

(Actually hammy pulls do tend to reoccur as well, so maybe you have a point.)

 

 

Sorry, but I disagree with this whole statement. Speaking for myself, I wasnt comfortable with our rotation last year for a few reasons. The way 2011 ended, we had a rookie (Doubie) who came to camp the year before completely out of shape, and Bard, who stunk last time he started. Sure, I was being optimistic, but that didnt mean I wasnt without a few doubts. Buch ended the year on the DL. Lester didnt finish well and Paps left, leaving us with no closer besides an oft injured one (Bailey) who got injured last march. Go figure. I wasnt any where near "gah gah" with the notion of Bard and Aceves in the rotation at all, and certainly not with Aceves closing...

 

I can honestly say I feel a LOT better this year than I did about our rotation and bullpen last year at this time, and I am more optimistic than I was _

__________________________________________________

The way I remember it the general mood going into last year was not great at all.  People were angry about the collapse and the chicken and beer stuff.  The reaction to Valentine's hiring was mixed to say the least.  Many were unimpressed with Cherington's offseason trades for Bailey and Melancon.  There was a lot of talk about the need to 'clean house', starting with unloading Beckett for whatever we could get.  Most people didn't know what to think about Bard becoming a starter.  There were pockets of optimism, of course, but I think overall it was not an optimistic fandom.

 

I still remember Schilling predicting that the season was going to be like the voyage of the Titanic.  He nailed that one.

 

I'm not saying you two had high expectations, but I clearly recall many here arguing with me just like now about how I kept insisting that we needed a top of rotation (1-2 slot type) to be strong contenders in 2012. The vast majority here were all saying we could count on our big 3 starters, even though I repeatedly told them that "the big 3" never had big seasons at the same time, so why should we expect it in 2012? I heard countless times how we were the best team in MLB for 4 months in 2011, and with better health (sound familiar) we'd be strong ring contenders without any trades needed.

Yes, there were many here upset with Bobby V, unhappy we had no RH'd power hitter to bat 4th like Manny, and a few who agreed we needed a starter, but most loved having Bard as a starter.

I did not think we were favorites to win last spring. I projected 94-96 wins, a playoff run, and perhaps, with some luck, a ring. I actually expected a decent year from Beckett (even though it was an even year). I thought he'd "have something to prove". I liked Youk, I wanted Iggy at SS instead of Aviles, but quickly realized I was mistaken about Mike's SS defense.  I was never a big CC fan, but repeatedly said I expected career norm type numbers in 2012. I expected Ellsbury to come close to his 2011 numbers. I actually liked our bench and predicted great offense from the Shopp/Salty combo. I was mostly worried about our rotation and pen.

I happen to have much lower expectations this year as compared to last March. I understand if some disagree, but I just see more question marks this year than last. We saw how last year turned out, so I'm doubley doubtful.

In response to moonslav59's comment:

The only "person" I can remember arguing with you about that is our favorite alleged attorney.

To me, it is almost all about the starting rotation, and as giddy as some here are getting over a small ST sample size, I don't see equal concern over the poor offensive numbers this spring. I will project that our offense will do fine this year, and although I do think my expectations for our offense last year (AGon, Cody Ross, no Middlebrooks in the picture, etc...) are higher than now, for argument's sake, I'll call it even. (Even with the injuries and the post-Dodger trade numbers included, our 2012 offense still placed us 8th in runs and 11th in OPS.)

The starting rotation expectations:

I have never been one to get all giddy over ST numbers, but of course it's nicer to see them doing well than poorly. I base my projections and expectations more on what the starter did last year and over the last 2-3 years much more than career numbers or recent ST numbers. I'm not saying my way is better than anyone elses, and I did come up way short in my 2012 projections using this methodology, but simply put, our starting pitchers had a horrible 2012 season, and I can not for the life of me, understand how so many posters seem to have higher expectations for our SPs this year than last year at this time. Spring training is just that: training in the spring. It hardly means jack. Let's look one by one:

Jon Lester: It is a myth that he finished 2011 poorly. He only had 2 bad starts out of his last 9, and one not so good start. The other 6 starts he allowed 0-2 ERs.  His 2012 final numbers of 15-9  3.47 with a 1.257 WHIP were pretty much in line with his career numbers at that time. Compare that to his 9-14  4.82 and  1.383 2012 line, and I can not in any way see any justification in having higher expectation now than last March. I guess the best argument might be his last two months of  2012, but both months were (Aug 3.59/1.148 & Sept 3.96/1.459)still worse than his 2011 overall numbers. Sorry folks, it's not even close in my opinion. 2 years in a row of lost velocity also weighs heavy on my expectations in 2013. 

Clay Buchholz: I understand the injury issue that was weighing heavily on our minds last March. However, they were saying he was healthy- just as they are saying now. The recent numbers for Buch are scary.

  2010: 17-7  2.33  1.203  (6.2 K/9)

  2011: 6-3    3.48  1.294   (6.5)

  2012: 11-8  4.56  1.326   (6.1)

Even if we cut him some slack for getting back on track in 2012 and forget his April and May numbers, he still did not finish that well:

   August  3.72  1.183

   Sept      4.82  1.339

   last 15 starts: 3-6  3.76 1.146  (6.2 K/9)

Not bad, but still not as good as 2010 and 2011. I do have high expectations for Buch this year. I still worry about his back injury haunting him, but I can not say I have higher expectation for Buch this year than I had last March. A 4.56 ERA and 1.326 WHIP over the last season makes be feel less confident that he will pitch well in 2013 than I felt in 2012.

Beckett/Dempster: I know many here were disgusted by Beckett's 2012 final games, but the guy was clearly our ace in 2011, and without him, we'd never have been close to being in it to the end. Like him or not, his 2011 season was one of the best in his career. Yes, he's been on and off over the years in an almost perfect odd year on, even year off pattern, but many of his off seasons were injury related. Yes, his velocity had declined, but he was proving in 2011, that he could be a great pitcher and not just a "thrower". The guy ended the season with 2 bad starts, and posters wanted to forget the other 28 that got us to withing striking distance of the playoffs much more than anyone else on the staff. I may have been in a minority last season, but I expected Josh to come out strong with "something to prove" and have a great 2012 season. I was wrong- dead wrong, but none the less, my expectations were high, and i believe justifiably so. It was not a fluke of high run support that the team went 20-10 in his 2011 starts, in fact they burned him with low support. He could have easily been 20-5 and been in the CY Young award talks with just normal Sox run support.

Josh had a 2.89 ERA pitching half his games in Fenway. His 1.026 WHIP was by far, the best of his career. His 3 year ERA was 3.97 and WHIP 1.21 (2009-2011). What starter do we have now that has those 3 year numbers? Oh yeah, Dempster does, right?  WRONG!  Pitching in an inferior league with no DH, Dempster has these 3 year numbers:

37-34  4.04  1.33 WHIP  (4.23 tERA)

His 3 year ERA+ have been 110, 81, and 124 (90 in the AL).

Beckett's was 121, 75 and 149 (his career best in 2011).

Again, I get the attitude argument, the clubhouse cancer argument, but on the field, it's hard to imagine anyone thinking that a SP who turns 36 this May has a higher expectation now than what we should have had for Beckett last March.

Doubront: I may be in the minority again by not being that impressed by his 2012 season. I can certainly agree that my expectations are higher now than last March, but I'm not getting all gah gah over a guy who had a 4,86 ERA and a 1.447 WHIP the prior season. I won't get into the coming to camp out of shape argument with you guys, but it weighs heavily on my mind. He has nasty nasty nasty stuff. His K rate proves that, but I see no reason to expect he will get the BB issue in order, and for those using the ST numbers to get all giddy over Lester, Buch and Dempster, then you should be very concerned with Doub's 1.462 ST WHIP. 

 

Bard/Lackey:  This is the hardest one to judg e. I, for one, was not happy moving Bard to the starter role, especially at a time when we were losing Papelbon as our closer, but it was what it was. I did not expect bard to fail that badly though, and trying to create a reliable expectation for him or Lackey going into 2013 is near pure speculation, so I'll go with calling this close to even.

 

I love having Morales (if he can get healthy), Mortensen, Tazawa (if they can stretch him out quickly enough to help), and Webster as out back-up SPs. They look better than Dice-K, Cook and others did last year at this time, but even if these guys get 40 games started that last year's back-ups got, 9 of last year's were from Morales at 3.77/1.231, so the true differential is really for those possible 30 starts going from Cook (18), Dice-K (11) and Stewart (2) to Aceves, Mortensen or Webster (Taz is not likely to start in 2013). I'll give a strong edge to 2013 over 2012, but I do recall thinking the Cook or Padilla signing might work out and that maybe Dice-K in a contract year could bounce back and help out mis season.

 

In summary, I am not seeing anyway the higher 2013 SP expectations can be justified. In my opinion, there is just as much reason to think Lester, Buch, and Doubront will come close to their 2012 numbers rather than their 2009-2011 numbers. There was little reason to expect the 2012 numbers from these three last March. (I'll give Doubront's 2013 and edge though.) The Beckett-Dempster is clearly in beckett's corner to me. The Bard-Lackey is a toss-up that I could agree to give an edge to Lackey. The 6th starter role: advanatage 2013.

 

I guess what Im saying is im more optimistic than I was last year. When they hired BV I lost some of that optimism. Yes, I gave him a chance and remained optimistic to start the season, but quickly lost that optimism after the youk comments.

This year, although not the best on paper, I have a better feeling going into this season than last. The starting rotation, although only ST, has been encouraging to see some of the positive changes.

 

this starting rotation of vets was very good...in 2008

pray that they turn back the clock somehow despite the fact that there is no way they will throw harder or be stronger than five years ago

 

maybe felix D can win 20 if he bothers himself to get in game shape

In response to moonslav59's comment:

You can analyze it into the ground, in fact, no offence but you already have. :-)

I guess my optimism is based on these reasons:

1) I think Lester and Buchholz are both CAPABLE of pitching like good #2's.

2) I'm hoping Doubront will be at least 10% better than he was last year.

3) I'm hoping that Lackey's surgery has restored him to something resembling the pitcher we thought we were getting.

4) Dempster - 180 innings, 4.5-4.7 ER.

I'm hoping that Salty really has improved, that Ross will be a good CERA guy, and that all the coaching and attitude changes will benefit the rotation.  I'm hoping that Aceves, Morales, Webster and whoever will be decent depth.

So yeah, a lot of hoping going on there, absolutely.  I'm choosing to be optimistic, unless and until reality slaps me upside the head, which it certainly may.

In response to southpaw777's comment:

I think a lot of fans lost much enthusiasm once BV's effect started to come into view, but I remember many fans still being very optimistic right before the trade deadlin- thinking we were one big trade away from contending.

In one short month- all had lost hope.