What to do this offseason

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: What to do this offseason

    It's different if you trade some lower ranked prospect pitchers for a solid young starter under team control for several seasons.

    Of course. I mean, if we can swindle a team and get a very good young SP who is cheap and under our control for at least a couple of years in exchange for some lower ceiling AA prospects, sure. Generally speaking, I would want to STOCKPILE good young arms right now in the hopes that in 2014 or 2015 a couple of them might really help the team rather than trade away any pitcher in our farm system with promise. If you throw enough spaghetti at the wall some of it will stick.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: What to do this offseason

    CORRECTION: Oakland might not care what Boston's record is, but a correlation if often found between a team's talent and its record. A more talented team is not likely to trade one of its best talents for a less talented team's middling prospects.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: What to do this offseason

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    It's different if you trade some lower ranked prospect pitchers for a solid young starter under team control for several seasons.Of course. I mean, if we can swindle a team and get a very good young SP who is cheap and under our control for at least a couple of years in exchange for some lower ceiling AA prospects, sure. Generally speaking, I would want to STOCKPILE good young arms right now in the hopes that in 2014 or 2015 a couple of them might really help the team rather than trade away any pitcher in our farm system with promise. If you throw enough spaghetti at the wall some of it will stick.


    Not everyone understands the rag pumpsie.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: What to do this offseason

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    It's different if you trade some lower ranked prospect pitchers for a solid young starter under team control for several seasons.Of course. I mean, if we can swindle a team and get a very good young SP who is cheap and under our control for at least a couple of years in exchange for some lower ceiling AA prospects, sure. Generally speaking, I would want to STOCKPILE good young arms right now in the hopes that in 2014 or 2015 a couple of them might really help the team rather than trade away any pitcher in our farm system with promise. If you throw enough spaghetti at the wall some of it will stick.



    Not everyone understands the rag pumpsie.

     

     



    Not sure what you mean by that.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: What to do this offseason

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    It's different if you trade some lower ranked prospect pitchers for a solid young starter under team control for several seasons.Of course. I mean, if we can swindle a team and get a very good young SP who is cheap and under our control for at least a couple of years in exchange for some lower ceiling AA prospects, sure. Generally speaking, I would want to STOCKPILE good young arms right now in the hopes that in 2014 or 2015 a couple of them might really help the team rather than trade away any pitcher in our farm system with promise. If you throw enough spaghetti at the wall some of it will stick.



    Not everyone understands the rag pumpsie.

     

     



    Not sure what you mean by that.

     




    Rag Time Baby.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: What to do this offseason

    Rag Time Baby.

    Did you mean Ragu Time?

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: What to do this offseason

    It's different if you trade some lower ranked prospect pitchers for a solid young starter under team control for several seasons.

    Of course. I mean, if we can swindle a team and get a very good young SP who is cheap and under our control for at least a couple of years in exchange for some lower ceiling AA prospects, sure. Generally speaking, I would want to STOCKPILE good young arms right now in the hopes that in 2014 or 2015 a couple of them might really help the team rather than trade away any pitcher in our farm system with promise. If you throw enough spaghetti at the wall some of it will stick.

     

    Maybe I am just a little turned off by our pitching prospects since it has been a while for one to become highly successful. (No, I don't count Masterson as being highly succesful.) I don't have much faith is Ranaudo, Britton, Pimental and anyone not named Barnes, except for maybe Webster and de la Rosa. Perhaps it from this position that I seem to be more willing to part with a few of our pitching prospects to help us gain a more reliable and surer bet pitcher like Brett Anderson, who is young and under team control for 3 more years.

    13:$5.5M, 14:$8M club option ($1.5M buyout),15:$12M club option ($1.5M buyout)

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: What to do this offseason

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Rag Time Baby.

    Did you mean Ragu Time?



    Rag Time.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: What to do this offseason

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    In response to notin's comment:

     

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    In response to notin's comment:

     

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    One thing we should do this off season is spend the freed up money wisely.  Take a good look at the foreign free agent market. Recently , with our maxed - out payroll , we had to pass on guys like Chapman , Cespedes , Darvish and a few others.  There may be some good ones out there.  It is always tough to improve through trades.  There is always the chance that we get the worst of any deal.

     




     

    And that is EXACTLY the wrong way to look at it.

     

    Not to single anyone out, but fans seem to be obsessed with "winning" the trades.  Check out the comments on any trade thread in MLBTR.  The question after a trade should NEVER be - Did we do better in the trade?   The question has to be - is the team better, and is this the best trade we could have made in this scenario?

     

    How the other team does is completely immaterial.  You have to know their needs to make an offer, but you never worry about whteher or not they "won the trade."

     

     

     




    It is simple. You get the worst of a trade when the player you dealt turns out to be better than the guy you received.  If that is the case , your team is not going to be better for it.

     




    Not true at all.

     

    Did Hanley Ramirez turn out to be a better player than Mike Lowell?  Who is the better pitcher  - Anabal Sanchez or Josh Beckett?   By that logic, the Sox "lost" a trade that netted them an ALCS MVP and a World Series MVP.  Please explain how they are worse for it.

    Heck, if you get right down to it - in no way on any planet does a trade that sends Nomar Garciaparra and Matt Murton out for Doug Mientkiewicz and Orlando Cabrera come even close to being equal.  Talentwise, the Sox got FLEECED on that deal, big time.  They didn't lose that trade; they got crucified, burried, dug up and then crucified again.   Yet somehow, some way, there was a happy ending, yes?

    If you get a guy who makes your team better, then don't worry about winning and losing trades, your formula for which doesn't seem to even bother to take depth into account. 

     




    You are twisting things to suit your opinion.  In the trades you cited , I would say that the Sox got the better of both of them.  They both resulted in a championship. I would never say that they got the worst of those trades.  Anyway , my point is that we now have money to spend , and we should look to spend it wisely on the free agent and foreign market.   You are singling out my comment that there is always a chance we can get the worst of a trade.  What about that comment is not true ?   Of course there is a chance.

     




    I did not twist a thing.

    I am singling out the part that needed to be signled out.  I singled out your opinion of why the team shoukld not trade, although I also did not single you out personally, and at some point stated it was quite common.

     

    And I still don't agree with the counterargument, either.  You explicitly said a team loses a trade if they give up better players than they receive.  I said that is not true, and highlighted to obvious ones.  At which point, you changed your criteria that a trade need not be evaluated solely on the players involved and which player turned out to be better. 

     

    And that is a good thing that you changed that viewpoint, becuase trades are not so easily formulaic in their success, barring the incredibly obvious one that nets a WS MVP and an LCS MVP in one fell swoop.

     

    I do expect the Sox to sign at least one marquee free agent this offseason, possibly two.   But the Epstein FO that built this FO did have a tendency for blockbuster trades, so I would expect one as well...

     

     

     
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  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from don444. Show don444's posts

    Re: What to do this offseason

    In response to 92coug's comment:

    I have been a diehard sox fan all my life, and I can honestly say right now, that I can't wait for this season to end.I couldn't tell you anything about the pennant races. With that said, I'm looking forward to this offseason. So what to do? I think we have some talent in our minor league system, but they are a year or so away. Bogarts, Bradley, Barnes Ranaudo, and Brentz. I don't know if Webster or De La Rosa will be ready this year or not. I think 2013 will be a bridge year. My thoughts:

    Pitching:

    Lester

    Buchholz

    Doubront

    Lackey

    ??????

    I still like Lester and Buch - but one of them needs to step up to be the #1 or we need to acquire one. If we acquire one, every team will be asking for the farm. Do we risk this? or do we go the FA route and go after say an Edwin Jackson, or a James "big game" Shields? or even a Kuoroda.  I would love to acquire Anderson from the A's but he comes with a steep cost of rookies. I say we bridge the gap, get someone for 2 or 3 years. I like Shields as he is AL East tested but can we get him for say 3/yr 33M?

    Relief pitching

     

    Get rid of Aceves and Melancon. I think Bard is messed up, Ankiel style that is, so is he salvageable? I think so, he just needs some confidence

     

    Closer: Bailey

    Bard, Achison, Miller, Morales, Tazawa, Hill, Breslow, Mortenson and Carpenter

     

    Maybe use one of the lefty's as trade bait for a right hand arm in the pen?

    C) Lav or Salty

    1B: ????? -what to do? We have Gomez, but he's not the solution. I'd love to see us go after David Wright (him or WMB move to 1b)  is he becomes a FA as there is a club option, or maybe Nick Swisher.

    2b) Pedey  - he is solid. Make him the Captain?

    SS) Iglesias great glove - but can he hit? What about going all in with Bogarts? 

    3B) Middlebrooks

    OF) Ellsbury - he's on his last arb - he needs a big year for a big contract.

    OF) resign Ross! He has been great  - plus he is a right handed bat

    OF) Nava/Kalish/Sweeney/Sands - not great choices here. Can the Sox get greedy at get Swisher and Wright?

    DH) Resign Papi  - give him a 2 year 28M contract. Let him finish his career in Boston.

     

    Bench: I love Aviles keep him as he is versatile

    Ciriaco

    Nava/Kalish/Sweeney/Sands

    Lav/ Salty

    Trade possibilities:

    Brett Anderson: doubt the A's will trade him, but would a package of Kalsih, Iglesias, Workman, Duobront  and Cecchini get it done?

    J Upton -a similar package from above get this done? Or do we move Ellsbury with a prospect for him?

    My dream starting lineup for next year:

    c) Lav

    1b) David Wright

    2b) Pedey

    SS) Bogarts (roll the dice)

    3b) Middlebrooks

    OF) Upton

    OF) Ross

    OF) Swisher

    DH) Papi

    P) Anderson

    P) Lester

    p) Buchholz

    P) Lackey

    P) Shields

    Thoughts?

    Middlebrooks to first ........ 

     

     




     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: What to do this offseason

     Do we risk this? or do we go the FA route and go after say an Edwin Jackson, or a James "big game" Shields? or even a Kuoroda.  I would love to acquire Anderson from the A's but he comes with a steep cost of rookies. I say we bridge the gap, get someone for 2 or 3 years. I like Shields as he is AL East tested but can we get him for say 3/yr 33M?

    Shields is not a free agent. The Rays will take the option and possibly trade him. They need offense and a catcher.

    I do not think Anderson will be as costly as Gio Gonzalez last year.

    Edwin Jackson or Kuroda may be nice "bridge" pick-ups on 1 or 2 year deals, but I'd prefer to gamble on younger arms with higher longer term upside, like McCarthey, Marcum and others.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: What to do this offseason

    In response to hill55's comment:

     

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [quote]Why does Oakland care what our record is?  Would they trade him to us if we were at .500?

    And are you sure that Oakland wouldn't trade young, affordable pitching?

    Cahill & Gio Gonzalez were traded at the age of 23 & 25, and they were traded about 9 months ago.


    Oakland might not care what Boston's record is, but a correction if often found between a team's talent and its record. A more talented team is not likely to trade one of its best talents for a less talented team's middling prospects.

    Last offseason the Athletics traded Gio Gonzalez for a package that included three high Baseball America Top 100 prospects and Trevor Cahill for a package that included a five-time Baseball America Top 50 prospect. This thread is void of a Red Sox trade package that includes a current Top 100 prospect (the stocks of Drake Britton and Anthony Ranaudo have dropped significantlly since their preseason 2011 ranknigs in the Second 50).

     



    For Gio, it was-

    Cole #57

    Milone N/A

    Norris #72 in 2011, but unrated in their pre-2012 picks

    Peacock #36

    So for Gio, it was not three high top-100 picks, it was more like two middling top-100 picks, and two decent prospects.

    For Cahill, it was basically for a guy that ranged from 26-49.

    Not to say that we'd get Anderson cheap, as I've mentioned all along, but we could certainly top the Cahill offer, and probably the Gio offer.

 
  • You have chosen to ignore posts from snakeoil123. Show snakeoil123's posts

    Re: What to do this offseason

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

     

    They have a very simple off season ahead of them:

     

    1.  Sign Ellsbury

    2.  Sign the top two FA starters available

    3.  Pick up a cheap closer option for when Bailey fails miserably - so get a set up guy who can be pressed into action when Bailey collapses.

    4.  Sign Ross as your veteran OF

    5.  If you cann get a PH 1B do it - but don't break the bank.

     

    Sit back and get ready for the young guys to play next year.  Improved rotation = playoffs.

     

    Yeah that's really simple.  why didn't I think of that?  The Red Sox should just get the top two starting pitchers out there.  You continue to amaze me with your baeball acumen.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     




     
  • You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: What to do this offseason

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    It's different if you trade some lower ranked prospect pitchers for a solid young starter under team control for several seasons.

    Of course. I mean, if we can swindle a team and get a very good young SP who is cheap and under our control for at least a couple of years in exchange for some lower ceiling AA prospects, sure. Generally speaking, I would want to STOCKPILE good young arms right now in the hopes that in 2014 or 2015 a couple of them might really help the team rather than trade away any pitcher in our farm system with promise. If you throw enough spaghetti at the wall some of it will stick.

     



    It's not either/or.  It never has and never will.  It's about the proper identification of will succeed, and who won't.  Keeping all of our prospects and playing the law of averages adds no value.

     
  • You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: What to do this offseason

    ...Last offseason the Athletics traded Gio Gonzalez for a package that included three high Baseball America Top 100 prospects and Trevor Cahill for a package that included a five-time Baseball America Top 50 prospect. This thread is void of a Red Sox trade package that includes a current Top 100 prospect (the stocks of Drake Britton and Anthony Ranaudo have dropped significantlly since their preseason 2011 ranknigs in the Second 50).

     

    [/QUOTE]

    For Gio, it was-

    Cole #57

    Milone N/A

    Norris #72 in 2011, but unrated in their pre-2012 picks

    Peacock #36

    So for Gio, it was not three high top-100 picks, it was more like two middling top-100 picks, and two decent prospects.

    For Cahill, it was basically for a guy that ranged from 26-49.

    Not to say that we'd get Anderson cheap, as I've mentioned all along, but we could certainly top the Cahill offer, and probably the Gio offer.

     

    Not only that, but I do not think Anderson's value is as high as Gio's was last winter.

    Gio had just turned 26. Brett Anderson will be 25 when the 2013 season begins.

    Gio had just had 2 straight seasons of 200+ IP. Anderson's IP has decline for 3 straight years (175>112>83>35) and he has never been over 176 IP.

    Gio had just had 2 seasons with an ERA below 3.24 (10th best ERA+ in both years). Brett has been over 4.00 in 2 of the last 4 seasons.

    Gio still had 4 years of team control (arbs) with Gio.  Anderson has 3 years of team control left at this rate:  13:$5.5M, 14:$8M club option ($1.5M buyout),15:$12M club option ($1.5M buyout)

     

    I'm not sure if Oakland will trade Anderson this winter. They traded Gonzalez, Cahill and Bailey recently, all of whom were sceduled to make about what Brett will make next year.

    I don't think we will have to trade Bogaerts, Bradley or Barnes to get him, but we will have to part with some nice prospects: perhaps Lava, Cecchini and Pimental or Brentz, Owens & Ranaudo. It might not even cost that much.

     
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