Re: What to do this offseason
posted at 9/22/2012 5:18 PM EDT
We need to think about 2014 and beyond. While I do think we can compete in 2013 if we make a few key moves, we still won't be serious contenders for the ring. If we can move most of the following players for prospects or players that are under team control for several more years, we will be moving in teh right direction. We may also end up flipping some of the prospects for better younger players or a franchise type player.
David Ortiz: Offer him $12.5M/1 or whatever the minimum deal amount needed so that if he refuses and signes elsewhere we get the compensatory draft pick.
Players who will be free agents after 2013:
Jacoby Ellsbury: Trading Ellsbury this winter makes a lot of sense. He must be traded before 2013 begins in order for the team getting him to keep the extra value attached to Jacoby due to compensatory draft choice the team will get if he walks after 2013. I am sure a contender would give a nice prospect or player with longer team control in return. Perhaps, a larger package would net us a key prospect or young franchise type pleyer.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia: His stock is as high as it has been in years, and with Lava, Swihart and a couple other promising catcher prospects waiting in the wings, it makes sense to explore trading Salty for a prospect. I could also see us extending Salty and trading Lava. If Papi walks, we may keep both and use Lava as a DH vs RHPs.
Craig Breslow: I like Breslow, but so do many GMs. I think it makes sense to package Craig to try and get a nice prospect or longer-term player.
Ryan Sweeney: He would have been traded this past July had he not broke his own hand. While he'd make a nice 4th OF'er/defensive OF replacement for a team that may have some defensively challenged OF'ers in 2013 (Nava, Linares, Ross...), Sweeney does not fit into our longer-term plans. He will not bring much in return, but could be part of a larger deal or net us a low-level promising prospect.
Rich Hill: Could be part of a package deal.
Players who will be free agents after 2014:
Andrew Bailey: When we traded for Bailey, we were looking to seriously compete in 2012 & 2013. That has changed. While Andrew is is also signed for 2014, his 2-year value to another team is worth more than his 1 year (2014) value to us. Some contending team would surely offer something nice for Bailey.
Alfredo Aceves: As with Bailey, his value to another team looking to contend in 2013 and 2014 is more than his value to us. Plus, there seems to be other issues brewing between Alfredo and Sox management. It might be time to part ways and try and get a player under team control for 2015 or beyond.
Mike Aviles: We have Iggy and Ciriaco for 2013, and Bogaerts and other SS prospects for 2014 and beyond. I don't see Aviles helping us as much as he could help another team at this point. He is a better option than some teams have for 2013, so I am sure some GM wants him.
Andrew Miller: He has found a nice role in the pen. I think we could look to extend him, or we could give him a longer look next year before deciding. It might be best to wait until next July or winter to decide about extending or trading Andrew.
Franklin Morales: I like Morales and want to keep him. I wouldn't look to trade him this winter, unless we can get a serious upgrade at starting pitcher.
Other special cases:
John Lackey: After proving he is healthy, we may look to deal him next July or winter. He now has the added value of the injury option year at minimum wage that brings down his cost per years of service quite a bit.
Scott Atchison: While he still has 5 years of team control and has pitched very well for us, his age is an issue. I think we could get a nice prospect for Scott.
Mauro Gomez: I don't think he is the answer at 1B, so I'd think about including him in a bigger package might make sense.
Jose Iglesias: I do not want to trade Iggy, but I feel like Sox management does not like the idea of a low offesne SS. Unless they change their view, we might as well trade Iggy if we aren't going to play him.
Garin Cecchini: I really like this kid, but unless we move him or Middlebrooks to 1B, he is blocked.
Sean Coyle, Jose Vinicio, T. W. Lin & other possible blocked prospects: Depending on who we trade from the above list or not, we might look to deal some of these blocked prospects as well.