What's Lester worth? / $$ / Prospects

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    What's Lester worth? / $$ / Prospects

    I fully support making additional efforts to extend Lester, but I also don't doubt that other teams are ready to pony up a fat long term contract for his services. He deserves that too.


     


    That leaves us at the end of the season with a QO and a draft pick more than a year from now that might never produce, and if he does it won't be for years after that.


     


    On the other hand, some teams are in a "win now" mode, and would likely overpay in prospects for a shot at a ring.


     


    With Workman and de la Rosa pitching well, more talent down below, and Buck & Dubront returning one day, it might make sense to deal Lester for prospects that will be ready to help the team sooner than later.


     


    I'm not one that insists that we act as if we have to win everything every year. So my question is this:


     


    In terms of prospects for Lester, how many could we get, of what quality, playing what positions?

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bill-806. Show Bill-806's posts

    Re: What's Lester worth? / $$ / Prospects

    It is insanity to give 4/5/6/+ years & big $$$$$ to players on the back 9  !!!!  I even have CONCERN with Pedroirs contract & how he gets beat up every year, & that is a home town contract !!

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: What's Lester worth? / $$ / Prospects

    It's not going to happen, but for a comp you could look at the package Seattle got from Texas for Cliff Lee - the premier prospect they got was Smoak.   

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: What's Lester worth? / $$ / Prospects

    20 dingers last year and his other numbers don't suck. If we could get someone like him as a prospect, maybe a righty outfielder, that would be something. Don't think we could also score a "B" prospect?


    I doubt the Sox would do it, because they don't have to, but I do think other teams might be willing to overpay for someone like Lester. And I think it would be a great way to get more value from him than we'd get in the draft.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: What's Lester worth? / $$ / Prospects

    In response to lasitter's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    20 dingers last year and his other numbers don't suck. If we could get someone like him as a prospect, maybe a righty outfielder, that would be something. Don't think we could also score a "B" prospect?

     

    I doubt the Sox would do it, because they don't have to, but I do think other teams might be willing to overpay for someone like Lester. And I think it would be a great way to get more value from him than we'd get in the draft.

    [/QUOTE]


    [object HTMLDivElement]

    I assume you could get a top-50 prospect for 3 months of Lester, maybe top 30-40.  But we'd need to be completely out of the race, and we'd need to be certain we weren't re-signing him.

    To me, this looks like Ellsbury again.  Unless your team stinks, you might be better off hoping for some playoff success and settling for a draft pick.

    And if your concern is "draft pick more than a year from now that might never produce", you run the same risk with a prospect.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: What's Lester worth? / $$ / Prospects

    With Workman and de la Rosa pitching well, more talent down below, and Buck & Dubront returning one day, it might make sense to deal Lester for prospects that will be ready to help the team sooner than later.

    Workman has had two starts and Delarosa one. Not much you can conclude about either one based on such a SSS. And I am not sure that Buch and Doubront returning is such a good thing. I believe that Lester was sincere when he said he wanted to stay in Boston. The FO made their initial offer, which is not their best and final offer. I think he stays.

    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: What's Lester worth? / $$ / Prospects

    In response to Bill-806's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    It is insanity to give 4/5/6/+ years & big $$$$$ to players on the back 9  !!!!  

    [/QUOTE]

    Some pitchers do pretty good on the back 9.  Lester could be a left-handed Schilling. 

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: What's Lester worth? / $$ / Prospects

    Trading Lester now would be a sign that management is giving up on the season. Sox are playing their best baseball right now. No way you can give up on the season. No way you can trade Lester.  Forget it.

    Stabbed by Foulke.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: What's Lester worth? / $$ / Prospects

    dgalehouse: If you think the team has a legit shot at a ring for the first time in 100 years, I'm sure this would be a non-starter. I'm looking at the difference between the value of 85-90 wins vs making the playoffs vs going deep in October.

    The Yankees know exactly what missing the playoffs is worth to them in their market, and hence the half billion dollar spending spree this winter.

    What is the difference for Boston in ticket sales between being competitive and actually making the playoffs?

    There's an awful lot of baseball left, but at the moment Toronto looks like they could walk away with the AL East, with long odds for two or even one WC spot in the East.

    Even if we get a draft pick, Lester could go to one of the top 10 protected picks, and we get nothing in the first round for him.

    Since you are not guaranteed of a 1st round pick for Lester, maybe his end of season value is only worth the low side of $5-$10 million. So if you could trade Lester for $20 million in potential early production prospects, then it could be a big win.

    This is all contingent on some other team being desperate for a ring this year. If recent free agent signings are any indication, we might find just such a trading partner to put together a 2x or 3x way trade.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazy-world-of-troybrown. Show crazy-world-of-troybrown's posts

    Re: What's Lester worth? / $$ / Prospects

    Sox better get going on Lester. They are making a big mistake he wont get a big payday on open market. He made 30 million on 5 year deal, time to pay up.
    If they do Trade you can take 2 approaches, you can look for a High Prospect in Triple AAA, which maybe gets you another Prospect. Or you can look to the lower levels of guys just Drafted and signed A or A+ Prospects, in which you can get 3 or 4 GOOD Prospects, who are close to Double AA ball. Just need good Scouts and Evaluators. Theo has been taking this approach with the Cubs, and he is building a good Farm.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    The second approach is good for the win now mode teams, they keep their high Triple AAA Prospects, for a Rental Player, the Trading team grans the better lower tier players. (Many good ones there)
    As far as Smaok, Seattle can have him, he's a .230 hitter with no signs of improvement. A Career .220 hitter with RISP, he would get nothing but grief here with his numbers as a 1st Baseman.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: What's Lester worth? / $$ / Prospects

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    It's not going to happen, but for a comp you could look at the package Seattle got from Texas for Cliff Lee - the premier prospect they got was Smoak.   

    That's not a bad comp.

    In July 2010, Seattle sent reliever Mark Lowe with Cliff Lee to Texas for Justin Smoak, righthander Blake Beavan, reliever Josh Lueke and infielder Matt Lawson. Smoak entered that season as Baseball America's 13th-ranked prospect.

    Beavan has posted Felix Doubront-like numbers* with an ERA of 4.61 in 54 appearances, including 44 starts. The Mariners traded Lueke for catcher John Jaso, whom the Mariners traded for outfielder Michael Morse, whom the Mariner traded for outfielder Xavier Avery, who now toils as a 24-year-old down at Triple A Tacoma. Lawson opted for retirement.

    * Beavan has posted an ERA of 4.61 and a WHIP of 1.27 with a career ERA+of 82, including an ERA+ of 92 this season. Doubront, who is 16 months older than Beavan, has posted an ERA of 4.67 and a WHIP of 1.47 in 90 appearances, includng 68 starts, with career ERA+ of 90, including an ERA+ of 81 this season.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from stinkman. Show stinkman's posts

    Re: What's Lester worth? / $$ / Prospects

    Lester is worth a 5 year deal worth 21.5 -22 m... a year.

    if they fall out of it which they won't. But if they did , fork over your best AA prospect and your best A prospect. Plus a serviceable MLB player on your roster.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from BostonIrishGuy. Show BostonIrishGuy's posts

    Re: What's Lester worth? / $$ / Prospects

    What if we trade Lester to Miami for Stanton straight up?

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: What's Lester worth? / $$ / Prospects

    No way Lester gets traded.  if he did, it would take at least a top 20 prospect + lower level prospects to get it done.

    But he will be too valuable for us this season to trade.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from steven11. Show steven11's posts

    Re: What's Lester worth? / $$ / Prospects

    I think he gets whatever he wants from some team.  He may have to come down on the length of the contract but the price per year is a lock for him. When I say come down, no more than one year.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: What's Lester worth? / $$ / Prospects

    Lester will command serious $$ from someone, and I think the Sox will not be the top bidders.

    I'm just interested in what our one or two biggest long term needs are going forward, and whether we might satisfy them with a trade involving Lester.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Javi60. Show Javi60's posts

    Re: What's Lester worth? / $$ / Prospects

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    With Workman and de la Rosa pitching well, more talent down below, and Buck & Dubront returning one day, it might make sense to deal Lester for prospects that will be ready to help the team sooner than later.

    Workman has had two starts and Delarosa one. Not much you can conclude about either one based on such a SSS. And I am not sure that Buch and Doubront returning is such a good thing. I believe that Lester was sincere when he said he wanted to stay in Boston. The FO made their initial offer, which is not their best and final offer. I think he stays.

    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE

    [/QUOTE]

    Hope he does not go the Jacoby way... Keep him by all means, hr has at least 5 solid years ahead

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from pinstripezac35. Show pinstripezac35's posts

    Re: What's Lester worth? / $$ / Prospects

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    It's not going to happen, but for a comp you could look at the package Seattle got from Texas for Cliff Lee - the premier prospect they got was Smoak.   

    That's not a bad comp.

    In July 2010, Seattle sent reliever Mark Lowe with Cliff Lee to Texas for Justin Smoak, righthander Blake Beavan, reliever Josh Lueke and infielder Matt Lawson. Smoak entered that season as Baseball America's 13th-ranked prospect.

    Beavan has posted Felix Doubront-like numbers* with an ERA of 4.61 in 54 appearances, including 44 starts. The Mariners traded Lueke for catcher John Jaso, whom the Mariners traded for outfielder Michael Morse, whom the Mariner traded for outfielder Xavier Avery, who now toils as a 24-year-old down at Triple A Tacoma. Lawson opted for retirement.

    * Beavan has posted an ERA of 4.61 and a WHIP of 1.27 with a career ERA+of 82, including an ERA+ of 92 this season. Doubront, who is 16 months older than Beavan, has posted an ERA of 4.67 and a WHIP of 1.47 in 90 appearances, includng 68 starts, with career ERA+ of 90, including an ERA+ of 81 this season.

    [/QUOTE]

    the problem with that comp

    is tex was guaranteed 2 draft picks if they couldn't sign lee

    the team that trades 4 lester gets 0 picks

    while I have no idea what sox could get

    I think whether the other team can sign him is a big factor

     

     

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