Looking at the numbers, nothing so impressive that a team mush give up several prospects to acquire him.

Maybe I'm not convinced.  Maybe his hype is more powerful than his performance.  Maybe I just don't like Uptons, as I never really understood the big deal about his brother, either.

How many players are being shopped that are top 16 WAR and top 14 OPS among players with 2400 PAs since 2009?

How many are just 25?

That's why.

i mean he is a good player with lots of talent. but is woefully inconsistent and has a bad attitude and i don't like that. He certainly isn't good enough to give up 3 top prospects for 3 years for him. Especially if we have to extend him after trading. any players that would go to AZ for bad attitude upton should go to Miami in a deal for a better player in Stanton (better player, better attitude, more years and less $)

The resident crackpot troll has got that particular bone in his mouth at the moment.  Not the exact sort of bone he longs to have in his mouth, but that's for other threads. 

In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

Funniest post of the day.

In response to moonslav59's comment:

Seriously moon, if softlaw thinks it's a good idea, how good an idea can it really be?

He is not even modestly "inconsistent". All players have ups and downs, and Upton played hurt last year.

A differential of .114 in OPS over the last 4 years is not even close to being "woefully inconsistent".

Other great player's OPS differentials over the last 4 years:

How Upton compares to the top 10 OPS players the last 4 years (2009-2012):

Hamilton .303

Pujols      .250

Ortiz        .232

Bautista  .170

AGon        .156

Fielder    .143

Braun      .128

***  Upton   .114 ****

Miggy      .100

CGonz     .096

Votto       .094

 

If you adjust for injury, it could be argued that Upton is the most consistent top OPS man out of the top players with 2400+ PAs since 2009.

In response to rickerd2's comment:

Upton's a good young player with serious talent, but the Sox aren't going to empty the farm for him.  They certainly wouldn't include Boegarts or Middlebrooks in any trade for him, and it would likely require at least one of them.  They also aren't going to trade young pitching for a guy like Upton, so they don't seem to match up at all. 

In response to carnie's comment:

This is the one thing that bothers me, but you know, a broken clock is right twice a day.

(Actually the broken clock has a better record tha softy's last 300 positions.)

In response to jasko2248's comment:

I think Ben would part with 2 "young pitchers" from Doubront, Morales, Tazawa or Aceves (+cash with Aceves). If we then signed Marcum, we'd hardly miss any 2 of these guys.

Then, add guys like Lava, Cecchini (blocked), Owens or Britton, Brentz or de la Cruz, and Iggy or Vinicio and we might not have to part with Boggy or Barnes.

In response to moonslav59's comment:

i still don't think that would be enough. i think AZ is going to get top prospects for him and if not then i think they'll hang onto him. its not like their farm system is depleted and they need 8 subpar talents to restock it.... they want future stars. from the RS POV at least 2 of XB, JBJ and MB. anything short of that won't land him IMO

In response to moonslav59's comment:

 

Thats 14th out of 43 players in OPS, since thats the total players with 2400 PA's since 2009.  He is young though.

I'm not a fan of Justin Upton.  I think he is just as likely to have the .799 and .786 OPS that he put up in 2010 and 2012, respectively, as he is to have the .899 and .898 OPS that he put up in 2009 and 2011, respectively.

Will he improve?  Although he is not his older brother, I will note that BJ Upton's seasons at age 22 and 23 were very similar to Justin Upton's seasons at that age (though reversing the age 22 and 23 seasons) and BJ has regressed, not gotten better.  I admit that I have seen BJ and LOT more than Justin and that my impressions of BJ probably influence my assessment of Justin more than they should.

Justin and BJ Upton may have better careers than Delmon and Dmitri Young, two other brothers who were drafted in the first round, but I'd pass on all of them, especially because their salaries and what it'll take to acquire them in trades has always been, in my mind, out of proportion to what they contribute to a team.  I'm not sure about Dmitri, now retired, but there are too many stories of Justin and BJ getting benched and Delmon having off-the-field issues. 

Upton has a no trade clause that includes Boston

According to MLBTraderumors.com:

 His no trade clause includes Red Sox,Cubs,Mariners and Blue Jays 

In response to moonslav59's comment:

I don't think that would be enough at all, but I also don't think we'll ever find out, either. 

I don't get the infatuation either.  He's a good player, but he's not worth breaking the bank for, IMO.

 

In response to moonslav59's comment:

What would that be on the road?

AZ was going to get a 19-year-old Walker & a 21-year-old Franklin - they're looking down the road.  They wouldn't be interested in Aceves or Morales - only Barnes & Bogaerts / Middlebrooks would start the conversation, with probably a Webster & Doubront thrown in to match the value the Mariners were willing to part with.  Upton doesn't convince me he's worth that kind of haul.  Trout, yes; Stanton - probably; Upton - I'm just not convinced.

 

Assuming that he would waive his no - trade stipulation , the deal ( like all deals ) comes down to how much you are willing to give up. If it would cost the top three or four prospects , you just have to pass.

Comparison of Upton with JD Drew:

Drew 278/384/489

Upton 278/357/475

Per 162 games

Drew 25 HR 82 RBI

Upton 24 HR 80 RBI

OPS+

Drew 125

Upton 117

In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

Drew at what ages?  You used the entire career of a player who retired at 36 to compare to a 25yo outfielder?   And the nfigured fans would only associate the outfielder with the player they saw from ages 32 through 36, and who carried alot of negative PR?

 

Try this exercise - compare Upton's career numbers to Matt Kemp at the same ages.

 

Then compare JD Drew at ages 32 to 35 against Dwight Evans at the same ages....

hey notin, what sites do you use to compile data?

fangraphs.com and baseball-reference.com

 

fangraohs has much more information, but b-r.com has some outstanding features for looking at an individual player and isolating years in his career...

In response to BMav's comment:

Yes, and...

28th in OPS out of 111 with 2000+

25th in WAR.

33rd in OPS & 26th in WAR out of 185 with 1500+ PAs.

(If you throw out 2012, and go by 2009-2011: he's 21st out of 127 in OPS with 1500+ PAs and 20th in WAR and 27th in OPS & 20th in WAR out of 225 with 1000+ PAs)

He's young and he's available. Those two do not collide very often.

In response to Joebreidey's comment:

His road splits are bad, no doubt, but show me any hitter after about the top 10, and I'll show you something to complain about... some stat... some flaw... something.