Re: What's your over/under?
posted at 12/26/2012 10:03 AM EST
In response to Softlaw1's comment:
Care to wager tags on that?
Sure, but you'll need to specifically define "borerline playoff team".
Frankly, at 150 million, if the Red Sox don't win at least 94 games then the word insane comes to mind.
Probability is what the game is about, in terms of decision making and evaluating potential construction moves. With or without the great Napoli:
Probability of 86 wins ore more is 81. 456%
Probability of 90 wins ore more is 54.875%
Probability of 94 wins or more is 25.440%
These numbers would be transformed greatly if Cherry was competent, and it would included spending about 30M less for this year.
more than 85, probability is overwhelmingly over
I question the spacing of the numbers, since it doesn't look like it should be 26-27% harder to win 90 than 86. I'm thinking step-plateau in my vernacular. Basically, 86 is tough unless Lester and Buchholz return to form, and if they return to form, 90 should be almost as easy as 86.
Other than that, I think the numbers are spot on.