What's your over/under?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from iamme17. Show iamme17's posts

    Re: What's your over/under?

    81-81.....this is a .500 team and that's only if the starters improve off last year.Everyone thinks our offense is top notch and will be among the AL leaders but the sox are the only team to play 81 games at fenway where a 10 run lead in the 3rd is almost enough.

     
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  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: What's your over/under?

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to georom4's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    im going .500

     

    that would be a  12 games improvement....

     

    and hopefully the best part is the youngsters develop....

    [/QUOTE]


    So after an entire offseason of complaining, you are predicting a nearly 20% improvement in wins?!?   What exactly were you complaining about again?

    [/QUOTE]

    im complaining that if we signed grienke/sanchez, or hamilton we would be back into the playoffs for the first time in a while....instead we have ocean state job lot free agents that already are breaking down before they play one inning...and valentine being gone has to improve the won-lost by five games....John farrell is going to be good for the team....but i hoping for .500 at best...would love to see me proved wrong....12 game improvement is pretty good

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: What's your over/under?

    w/out Naps: 85

    W/ Naps: 89

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Iceman4. Show Iceman4's posts

    Re: What's your over/under?

    75-78 wins...going under..no ace

    hoping I am totally wrong though

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from HankukSox. Show HankukSox's posts

    Re: What's your over/under?

    Read my mind SinceYaz.  88 here as well.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoofyGolfa. Show GoofyGolfa's posts

    Re: What's your over/under?

    Under and Under .500 too 79 and 83 for me

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from tcal2-. Show tcal2-'s posts

    Re: What's your over/under?

    Under 82

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from GreenPartyCelt. Show GreenPartyCelt's posts

    Re: What's your over/under?

    Gotta go under, monsieur, but I think they will be right around 83-84...The way the Yanks are constitued right now I see the Red Sox splitting the season series....If the Yanks make any major improvements or additions (and I do not consider Scott Hairston that significant if they do sign him), then you might lower that win total a hair or two...In a sense this looks like a transitional year for both the Yankees and Red Sox....On paper the Blue Jays still look pretty scary to me, especially if Josh Johnson and Buehrle stay healthy and pitch well....But we have learned in the past 2 years that what looks good on paper does not always play out as expected.....

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: What's your over/under?

    In response to pelosireturns' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Over by 8

    [/QUOTE]

    So the same # of wins as losses last yr? I'll say 88 wins.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: What's your over/under?

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Over

    [/QUOTE]

    More precisely, 767 runs scored, and 676 against.

    [/QUOTE]

    That run differential is pretty optimistic.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Alibiike. Show Alibiike's posts

    Re: What's your over/under?

    In response to Ben Cheringtom's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    over

     

    Chances whiners Geo, Ghost, Allbike go under...100%

     

    Chances imbeciles like pumpsiegreen go under 100%

     

    Chances idiot police like kimsaythis/ pike go nuts 100 %

    [/QUOTE]

    Chances Ben stops the name-calling.....0%.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from stan17. Show stan17's posts

    Re: What's your over/under?

    I'll say over.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Alibiike. Show Alibiike's posts

    Re: What's your over/under?

    85 wins means an average of ~14 wins per starter. I just don't see it happening. With at least one bonafide 20 game winner in the rotation, maybe.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: What's your over/under?

    In response to Alibiike's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    85 wins means an average of ~14 wins per starter. I just don't see it happening. With at least one bonafide 20 game winner in the rotation, maybe.

    [/QUOTE]


    It's actually about a 17-16 record in games from each of the 5 starter slots.

     

    (I still think the over/under is more like 80 wins, as of right now.)

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: What's your over/under?

    In 2012 Vegas had the over under on the Sox as 89.5 and their odds of winning the WS at 9-1.

     

    Too early for over/under on wins and losses.  But vegas has the initial WS number at 25 - 1 for the Sox.

     

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: What's your over/under?

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In 2012 Vegas had the over under on the Sox as 89.5 and their odds of winning the WS at 9-1.

     

    Too early for over/under on wins and losses.  But vegas has the initial WS number at 25 - 1 for the Sox.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Which is NOT serious contention in my opinion.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: What's your over/under?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In 2012 Vegas had the over under on the Sox as 89.5 and their odds of winning the WS at 9-1.

     

    Too early for over/under on wins and losses.  But vegas has the initial WS number at 25 - 1 for the Sox.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Which is NOT serious contention in my opinion.

    [/QUOTE]

    Those odds, more often than not, are way off

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Alibiike. Show Alibiike's posts

    Re: What's your over/under?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Alibiike's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    85 wins means an average of ~14 wins per starter. I just don't see it happening. With at least one bonafide 20 game winner in the rotation, maybe.

    [/QUOTE]


    It's actually about a 17-16 record in games from each of the 5 starter slots.

     

    (I still think the over/under is more like 80 wins, as of right now.)

    [/QUOTE]

    Well, I was looking at the BP to pick up the rest of the wins necessary. 14 would net them 70 wins.

    3 years ago, I would have said it was doable, but I really think opposing hitters have figured out Lester. Buchholz is inconsistent, Lackey is a huge "if", and Dempster is a .500 guy. Really, I think Doubront has the best chance at winning 20 but his immaturity could be his undoing.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: What's your over/under?

    nhsteven entirely irrelevant since his boyfriend retired from the forum.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: What's your over/under?

    Rather than a Troll u are a Droll.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: What's your over/under?

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Care to wager tags on that?

    Sure, but you'll need to specifically define "borerline playoff team".

    Frankly, at 150 million, if the Red Sox don't win at least 94 games then the word insane comes to mind.

    Probability is what the game is about, in terms of decision making and evaluating potential construction moves. With or without the great Napoli:

    Probability of 86 wins ore more is 81. 456%

    Probability of 90 wins ore more is 54.875%

    Probability of 94 wins or more is 25.440%

    These numbers would be transformed greatly if Cherry was competent, and it would included spending about 30M less for this year.

    more than 85, probability is overwhelmingly over

    [/QUOTE]

    +1

    I question the spacing of the numbers, since it doesn't look like it should be 26-27% harder to win 90 than 86.  I'm thinking step-plateau in my vernacular.  Basically, 86 is tough unless Lester and Buchholz return to form, and if they return to form, 90 should be almost as easy as 86.

    Other than that, I think the numbers are spot on.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: What's your over/under?

    In response to Alibiike's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    85 wins means an average of ~14 wins per starter. I just don't see it happening. With at least one bonafide 20 game winner in the rotation, maybe.

    [/QUOTE]

    The average AL team has ~ 23 wins from the BP in both 2012 and 2011.  You're implying only 15 wins from our BP.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: What's your over/under?

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In 2012 Vegas had the over under on the Sox as 89.5 and their odds of winning the WS at 9-1.

     

    Too early for over/under on wins and losses.  But vegas has the initial WS number at 25 - 1 for the Sox.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    All LV odds bets are ripoffs.  They probably clear 40% on those wagers.  The under/over is the only one that counts.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from boborielly224. Show boborielly224's posts

    Re: What's your over/under?

    In response to carnie's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    OK, the roster is almost set and I reckon it's prediction time. I'm going to arbitrarily set the over/under on the Boston Red Sox at 85 wins. Time to put your money where your mouth is. I'm taking the over. Anyone else?

    [/QUOTE]


    I will take a over pick with 89 wins. The first 15 gms. will start off shaky cause of the rotation but will gel after the first 3 starts. I will pick Gomes as the new arrival dark horse.

     
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