81-81.....this is a .500 team and that's only if the starters improve off last year.Everyone thinks our offense is top notch and will be among the AL leaders but the sox are the only team to play 81 games at fenway where a 10 run lead in the 3rd is almost enough.

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In response to notin's comment:

im complaining that if we signed grienke/sanchez, or hamilton we would be back into the playoffs for the first time in a while....instead we have ocean state job lot free agents that already are breaking down before they play one inning...and valentine being gone has to improve the won-lost by five games....John farrell is going to be good for the team....but i hoping for .500 at best...would love to see me proved wrong....12 game improvement is pretty good

w/out Naps: 85

W/ Naps: 89

75-78 wins...going under..no ace

hoping I am totally wrong though

Read my mind SinceYaz.  88 here as well.

Under and Under .500 too 79 and 83 for me

Under 82

Gotta go under, monsieur, but I think they will be right around 83-84...The way the Yanks are constitued right now I see the Red Sox splitting the season series....If the Yanks make any major improvements or additions (and I do not consider Scott Hairston that significant if they do sign him), then you might lower that win total a hair or two...In a sense this looks like a transitional year for both the Yankees and Red Sox....On paper the Blue Jays still look pretty scary to me, especially if Josh Johnson and Buehrle stay healthy and pitch well....But we have learned in the past 2 years that what looks good on paper does not always play out as expected.....

In response to pelosireturns' comment:

So the same # of wins as losses last yr? I'll say 88 wins.

In response to Joebreidey's comment:

That run differential is pretty optimistic.

In response to Ben Cheringtom's comment:

Chances Ben stops the name-calling.....0%.

I'll say over.

85 wins means an average of ~14 wins per starter. I just don't see it happening. With at least one bonafide 20 game winner in the rotation, maybe.

In response to Alibiike's comment:

It's actually about a 17-16 record in games from each of the 5 starter slots.

 

(I still think the over/under is more like 80 wins, as of right now.)

In 2012 Vegas had the over under on the Sox as 89.5 and their odds of winning the WS at 9-1.

 

Too early for over/under on wins and losses.  But vegas has the initial WS number at 25 - 1 for the Sox.

 

 

In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

Which is NOT serious contention in my opinion.

In response to moonslav59's comment:

Those odds, more often than not, are way off

In response to moonslav59's comment:

Well, I was looking at the BP to pick up the rest of the wins necessary. 14 would net them 70 wins.

3 years ago, I would have said it was doable, but I really think opposing hitters have figured out Lester. Buchholz is inconsistent, Lackey is a huge "if", and Dempster is a .500 guy. Really, I think Doubront has the best chance at winning 20 but his immaturity could be his undoing.

nhsteven entirely irrelevant since his boyfriend retired from the forum.

Rather than a Troll u are a Droll.

In response to Softlaw1's comment:

+1

I question the spacing of the numbers, since it doesn't look like it should be 26-27% harder to win 90 than 86.  I'm thinking step-plateau in my vernacular.  Basically, 86 is tough unless Lester and Buchholz return to form, and if they return to form, 90 should be almost as easy as 86.

Other than that, I think the numbers are spot on.

In response to Alibiike's comment:

The average AL team has ~ 23 wins from the BP in both 2012 and 2011.  You're implying only 15 wins from our BP.

In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

All LV odds bets are ripoffs.  They probably clear 40% on those wagers.  The under/over is the only one that counts.

In response to carnie's comment:

I will take a over pick with 89 wins. The first 15 gms. will start off shaky cause of the rotation but will gel after the first 3 starts. I will pick Gomes as the new arrival dark horse.