Where Should a Pitcher with these Numbers be Slotted?

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    Re: Where Should a Pitcher with these Numbers be Slotted?

    I don't understand why so many people on this board act like a 5 era is some magic number and when a pitcher is above this he's horrendous.  A quality start, 6 IP, 3 ER, is a 4.5 era.  5 era isn't top of the rotation by any means, but it isn't that bad for a 4,5 starter.
     
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    Re: Where Should a Pitcher with these Numbers be Slotted?

    In Response to Where Should a Pitcher with these Numbers be Slotted?:
    Red: OK to very good Black: Not horrible Blue: Very bad to horrible IP  ER  H+BB 6.2  1   4 7.0  2   7 6.0   4    8 5.1   5   8 7.0  1     9 8.0  3   4 6.0  5   11 5.1   5  11 7.0  3   10 4.2   3   11 6.1    7    11 7.0  3    5 6.2  3    7 7.0  3    8 8.0  4   11 5.1  4     9 4.0  4    10
    Posted by moonslav59


    The reality is that he sould be #6 if you base it soley off performance...dating back to the AS break he has allowed on average more runs than anyone on the staff too include Lackey....see below ERA (Earned runs per 9) ARA (average runs allowed) and AERA (average earned runs allowed)...

    Wake's Last Ten Starts
    OPPONENTRESULTIPHRERHRBBSOERAARAAERA
    vs OAKL 5-1548842235.10   8   4
    @ KCL 4-95.19440034.97   4   4
    @ SEAL 3-589541244.90   5   4
    @ MINW 8-678531044.92   5   3
    vs CLEW 4-36.25331264.99   3   3
    @ CHWL 1-373331255.06   3   3
    vs SEAW 12-86.110772145.15   7     7
    @ BALW 15-104.29732234.80   7  3
    vs TORW 6-479330174.74  3  3
    @ HOUW 7-55.111550004.82  5  5
    Totals6 & 459.78150391012395.885.003.90
    Lackey Last Ten Starts 
    OPPONENTRESULTIPHRERHRBBSOERAARAAERA
    @ TEXW 11-56.27441355.98  4  4
    vs TBL 0-46.26432376.02  4  3
    @ SEAW 6-4610440236.13  4  4
    vs NYYW 10-466330256.14  3  3
    vs CLEL 6-96.28552056.23  5  5
    vs KCW 12-55.211432136.20  4  3
    vs SEAW 7-478110046.28  1  1
    @ TBW 9-55.210431176.70  4  3
    vs BALW 4-06.23000176.84  0  0
    vs TORL 7-92.19771027.47  7  7
    Totals7 & 356.3783633913485.283.603.30
    Lester's Last Ten Starts
    OPPONENTRESULTIPHRERHRBBSOERAARAAERA
    vs OAKW 9-363211243.09  2  1
    @ KCW 6-163110433.16  1  1
    vs TBW 3-173110183.22  1  1
    @ MINL 2-57.18440543.32  4  4
    vs NYYL 2-365330473.23  3  3
    @ CHWW 10-284222183.17  2  2
    vs KCL 1-35.17110263.23  1  1
    vs TORW 3-240000153.31  0  0
    @ PHIW 5-272000253.43  0  0
    @ PITL 1-368320153.66  3  2
    Totals6 & 462.2431715323552.171.701.50
    Beckett's Last Ten Starts
    OPPONENTRESULTIPHRERHRBBSOERAARAAERA
    @ TEXW 13-264111242.43  1  1
    @ KCW 4-377331042.46  3  3
    @ SEAL 4-558552162.40  5  5
    vs NYYW 3-266111252.17  1  1
    vs CLEW 3-266222072.20  2  2
    vs KCL 3-475431382.17  4  3
    vs SEAW 3-177111172.07  1  1
    @ TBW 1-081000062.12  0  0
    vs BALW 10-357331232.27  3  3
    @ HOUW 2-1851100112.12  1  1
    Totals8 & 2655621201011612.772.102.00
    Bedard Since Arriving 
    OPPONENTRESULTIPHRERHRBBSOERAARAAERA
    vs OAKW 4-042000453.45  0  0
    @ TEXL 0-467441143.57  4  4
    vs TBL 2-667311063.44  3  1
    @ MINW 4-353220463.55  2  2
    vs CLEL 3-757330053.55  3  3
    Totals2 & 32626121029263.462.402.00
    Miller's last eight Starts
    OPPONENTRESULTIPHRERHRBBSOERAARAAERA
    @ TEXW 6-06.13000264.42  0  0
    @ KCW 7-15.13110234.99  1  1
    @ CHWW 5-35.210330185.36  3  3
    vs KCW 13-93.29752215.45  7  5
    @ BALW 4-05.22000634.65  0  0
    @ TBL 6-92.25771505.68  7  7
    vs BALW 10-456330403.57  3  3
    @ HOUW 10-467221233.06  2  2
    Totals7 & 1   38 45 23 21  4 24 24 4.97 2.88 2.63
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Where Should a Pitcher with these Numbers be Slotted?

    In Response to Re: Where Should a Pitcher with these Numbers be Slotted?:
    I don't understand why so many people on this board act like a 5 era is some magic number and when a pitcher is above this he's horrendous.  A quality start,6 IP, 3 ER, is a 4.5 era5 era isn't top of the rotation by any means, but it

    isn't that bad for a 4,5 starter.
    Posted by greenwellforpresident


    I know that. You know that. Most here know that.

    But we have a demented mind on this board known as Softliar...who doesn't understand the simplest of concepts. Why? Because he has his head stuck up his azz.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Where Should a Pitcher with these Numbers be Slotted?

    In Response to Re: Where Should a Pitcher with these Numbers be Slotted?:
    I know, the old saying about pitching, :you are only as good as your last game". That does have some truth to it. Miller has pitched well for more than 1 game. He has done well for 3 games. He has nasty stuff. I'm Ok with him being the 4/5 starter. I just want people to know that Wake has not been as bad as some clowns are making him out to be. Even if you want to look at only ERA, at least look at Wake's ERA in the context of MLB 5/6 slotted pitchers. Look at the park he pitches in half his games. Look at the context of the amount of inherited runners the pen has allowed in his games compared to other Sox starters. (He has nearly as many allowed as the top other 4 combined! ) Look at all the misplayed hits in his games that were called hist not errors and led to several runs. Better to look at ERA and other measures of gauging a pitcher's performance level. WHIP is a highly regarded stat. It's not just me cherry-picking an obscure stat out of my hat. Take ERA in the context of other sta ts. Wake is 4th out of our healthy starters in WHIP (1.372). he is way ahead of Lackey (1.546) and Miller (1.654). Look at IP per start. Wake is 3rd (6.1 IP/GS). He has more IP and more GS'd since may 22nd than any other starter on the Sox. He's 5th in K/BB (ahead of Miller). Surprisingly, he's done the best job at not allowing SBs this year. Miller has faced only one top 12 MLB offense this year, Wake has faced way more than that. . Context of stats.
    Posted by moonslav59


    Moon,
    Not in his last ten he hasn't? Maybe he did earlier this year but if you look at the stats below and the teams both have faced of late...I'd say that Miller has faced far stiffer offenses than Wake...While I appreciate what the guy brings to our team and have great respect for him, and as much as I hate even saying this, it's time to skip Wake and let Miller pitch...

    Sortable Batting
    RKTEAMGPABRH2B3BHRTBRBIAVGOBPSLGOPS
    1NY Yankees13144697191204214311862038702.269.349.456.805
    2Boston13346637181303278291662137691.279.349.458.808
    3Texas13547026861299265261602096647.276.334.446.780
    4Cincinnati13346116271196212141531895593.259.330.411.741
    5St. Louis13445756241236252161341922594.270.339.420.759
    6Colorado13445716191182235321351886588.259.331.413.744
    7Toronto13345776151150232291541902583.251.316.416.731
    8Detroit13345326021225230231301891576.270.333.417.751
    9Milwaukee13545326011185222261461897578.261.323.419.742
    10Arizona13444925941111234291461841569.247.316.410.726
    11Philadelphia12944165841122215301241769569.254.325.401.725
    12Kansas City1344667582125326432981875559.268.327.402.728
    13NY Mets1304492582119325134901782549.266.336.397.733
    14Tampa Bay13244555681098234331351803544.246.319.405.724
    15Baltimore13145275591167218101531864541.258.314.412.726
    16Cleveland13044085531103234221171732523.250.319.393.712
    17Atlanta13345485491117207111491793518.246.311.394.705
    18Chicago Cubs13446025411200238281251869502.261.314.406.721
    19LA Angels13345285351146242251201798504.253.313.397.710
    20Oakland1334484530110523727911669502.246.313.372.686
    21Chicago Sox13144715271133197141271739503.253.318.389.707
    22Florida13144175141087220241181709492.246.317.387.704
    23Pittsburgh1334463513109222023881622489.245.310.363.673
    24Houston1344615511119726624791748482.259.313.379.692
    25Minnesota1334500510111821418861626473.248.307.361.668
    26LA Dodgers1324461508113418823961656480.254.318.371.689
    27San Diego1344518506108420037751583479.240.307.350.657
    28Washington13244425041073204201231686480.242.310.380.689
    29Seattle1324432457103920418861537440.234.296.347.642
    30San Francisco1344531454108123416881611424.239.301.356.656
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Where Should a Pitcher with these Numbers be Slotted?

    Beane, I have said I am fine with putting Miller ahead of Wake right now. I said about two weeks ago that Wake needed a break and wasn't meant to pitch so many innings. My argument here is that people are using Wake's 2011 stats to "prove" he is not a Sox top 5 starter. If you look at just ERA as softy and others so, Wake is better than lackey, if you look at more than ERA, and count context. Wake has done better than Miller this year in total. That is not the same as saying I think Wake is better than Miller right now.

    If some clown used 2010-2011 stats to justify sitting Wake in favor of Miller, I'm going to expose the absurdity of that point in the debate. It doesn't mean there aren't other justifications that point towards Miller. Silly clown can't seem to get that distinction. He assumes that just because I expose his misinformation, I am making a case for the other side. That is not necessarily true every time.

    Yes, Wake has had an easy last 10 opponents. I think he has faced only Toronto as a tough offense of late. Miller has faced just 1 top 12 offensive team all year. With all due respect, do you not think that helps his overall 2011 numbers just a tiny bit?

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Where Should a Pitcher with these Numbers be Slotted?

    In Response to Re: Where Should a Pitcher with these Numbers be Slotted?:
    Beane, I have said I am fine with putting Miller ahead of Wake right now. I said about two weeks ago that Wake needed a break and wasn't meant to pitch so many innings. My argument here is that people are using Wake's 2011 stats to "prove" he is not a Sox top 5 starter. If you look at just ERA as softy and others so, Wake is better than lackey, if you look at more than ERA, and count context. Wake has done better than Miller this year in total. That is not the same as saying I think Wake is better than Miller right now. If some clown used 2010-2011 stats to justify sitting Wake in favor of Miller, I'm going to expose the absurdity of that point in the debate. It doesn't mean there aren't other justifications that point towards Miller. Silly clown can't seem to get that distinction. He assumes that just because I expose his misinformation, I am making a case for the other side. That is not necessarily true every time. Yes, Wake has had an easy last 10 opponents. I think he has faced only Toronto as a tough offense of late. Miller has faced just 1 top 12 offensive team all year. With all due respect, do you not think that helps his overall 2011 numbers just a tiny bit?
    Posted by moonslav59


    I'm only trying to answer your question and support my opin with stats...I'm not all that interested in getting in between you and Softy...fact of the matter is I'm unclear what your defenition of top 12 is cause if we use the top scoring offenses he (Miller) has in fact faced Texas (#3) and KC (#12) twice.

    To me I get the value of whip etc, but in the end it's about runs allowed and then to me the most importnat stat is innings from a starter...Cliff Lee is off the charts in terms of his fantsy value...but he still allows an average of 2 runs every time he takes the ball....ditto guys like Sabathia...

    Wake of late has not pitched well and infact is allowing an average of 5 runs per start, earned or otherwise which is a tad on the high side.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Where Should a Pitcher with these Numbers be Slotted?

    In Response to Re: Where Should a Pitcher with these Numbers be Slotted?:
    In Response to Re: Where Should a Pitcher with these Numbers be Slotted? : I'm only trying to answer your question and support my opin with stats...I'm not all that interested in getting in between you and Softy...fact of the matter is I'm unclear what your defenition of top 12 is cause if we use the top scoring offenses he (Miller) has in fact faced Texas (#3) and KC (#12) twice. 

    1) When I did my research a few days ago, KC was 13th. Now they are tied for 12th (and 13th). Put it this way, Miller has only faced a top 12.5 opponent 1 time.

    2) I brought it up not as a way to bash Miller, but to show that when you compare his season stats with Wake, the context of stregnth of opponent should be considered at least in a small way.

    To me I get the value of whip etc, but in the end it's about runs allowed and then to me the most importnat stat is innings from a starter...

    Runs allowed is highly influenced by other factors (as is WHIP as well).
    If you go by IP per start, as you like, Wake is 3rd on the team, and way ahead of Miller. He has saved the pen, and the team record after his starts is something like 13-5.

    Cliff Lee is off the charts in terms of his fantsy value...but he still allows an average of 2 runs every time he takes the ball....ditto guys like Sabathia... Wake of late has not pitched well and infact is allowing an average of 5 runs per start, earned or otherwise which is a tad on the high side.

    I understand the small sample size logic. Miller is looking good of late. My issue was with those using season stats or 2010-2011 stats to "prove" Wake should not start, but then neglect those same stats from Miller and Lackey.
    Posted by Beantowne


     
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    Re: Where Should a Pitcher with these Numbers be Slotted?

    Tim Wakefield has an xFIP of 4.75 over the past two seasons but has not pitched enough to qualify for the FanGraphs rankings over that period. However, Wakefield's xFIP of 4.75 would rank 82nd of 82 starters if he qualified. Wakefield ranks 246th of 337 among all starters over that period:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=n&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0

    Tim Wakefield has made valuable contributions over his long career but at this point the knuckleballer would be relegated to the back end of the rotation on most teams.

    *  xFIP - Expected Fielder Independant Pitching where Home Runs are calculated as 10.5% of Fly Balls induced: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/xfip/
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Where Should a Pitcher with these Numbers be Slotted?


    Tim Wakefield has an xFIP of 4.75 over the past two seasons but has not pitched enough to qualify for the FanGraphs rankings over that period. However, Wakefield's xFIP of 4.75 would rank 82nd of 82 starters if he qualified. Wakefield ranks 246th of 337 among all starters over that period:

    www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=n&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0">http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=n&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0

    Tim Wakefield has made valuable contributions over his long career but at this point the knuckleballer would be relegated to the back end of the rotation on most teams.

    1) xFIP is a valuable stat, but standing alone it is not.

    2) Did you bother to look where Miller ranked?
    Wake is at 4.75. (186 out of 207)
    Miller is at 5.19. (192 out of 207 starters with over 70 IP)

    3) If you use a number to show Wake should not start, and Miller's is worse: I'm not getting the logic.

    4) Selecting just 2010-2011 may or may not be fair.  If you go back to 2009, 2008, or 2007 things look a lot different.

    5) Going by the popular 2010-2011 numbers, I showed how there are over 30 pitchers with an ERA over 5. Some have more starts and more IP than Wake. Most have plenty of action that places them in their team's top 5 starters. True, we are not "most teams". We expect better.

    6) Some other stats from the 2010-2011 timeframe chosen by those who think Wake is not worthy:

    207 pitchers with over 70 IP as a starter since 2010

    Starter ERA:
    187 Burnett  5.28
    189 Wake      5.42
    200 Miller      5.87

    Try tERA:
    125  Dice-K     4.58
    126  Lackey    4.60
    130  Wake       4.63
    207  Miller       6.60

    Starter WHIP:  
    130 Wake      1.39
    207 Miller      1.92 (Yes, last place out of 207 starters in MLB since 2010)

    I understand Miller is younger. I understand he has pitched well his last 2-3 starts. I understand he has some nasty stuff. I'm just tired of so many posters saying Miller should start over Wake because Wake had a bad xFIP, ERA, WHIp, whatever since 2010, when Miller is worse in all 3 categories. Use the short sample argument if you wish, but just own up to it. Don't disguise it with stats that actually should be favoring the Wake side of the argument.

     
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