Where should Ellsbury bat?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliamsjr. Show hankwilliamsjr's posts

    Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?

    6) Aviles (RF)-- (I'd rather have Lava here)
    7) DMac  (LF)
    8) Shopp
    9) Scut

    Nearly half this lineup is going to be better than any bottom half lineup in baseball. Theo really left the roster in great shape.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?

    Hitting LO and hitting 9th are two different things. For one, you are likely to get one more plate appearance a game as the LO. In one league, it's where you place your non-hitters traditionally--pitchers. The reason why CC is not a good fit for No. 1, No. 2 is frankly he doesn't get on base. If he could get on base, different story. That's why often guys get sent to the No. 8 and No. 9 spots---to not hurt the 1-7 parts of the order because they don't get on base or produce runs. You can try to hide a guy in the No. 6 spot, but eventually the bad hitters get exposed--sort of the way CC was exposed last season. Plate appearances are for guys who get on base/and or produce runs---that's why you get to hit in the Nos. 1-5 spots. You EARN IT.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?

    I made my point in the lineup's deficiencies in a previous post. The team is stuck with a 1-5 that is as good as there is, and a 6-9 that might be as bad as there is. More moves obviously will be made by Benny the GM

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliamsjr. Show hankwilliamsjr's posts

    Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?

    Hermida would be a great booster for the bottom of the lineup. Great low risk and high reward move that Theo made famous.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from fourrings. Show fourrings's posts

    Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?

    leave Ellsbury right where he is, leading off, after the year he had why change anything? lets say the sox moved him to 3rd in the order, i bet he changes his approach and starts trying to hit home runs and has a down year, he is obviously comfortable leading off so i say leave it alone
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?

    In Response to Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?:
    [QUOTE]I made my point in the lineup's deficiencies in a previous post. The team is stuck with a 1-5 that is as good as there is, and a 6-9 that might be as bad as there is. More moves obviously will be made by Benny the GM
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]

    Scutaro is a good #9 hitter

    Salty and Kalish could be productive

    Ben really can't do too much more here budget-wise given Lupus's enourmous salary.

    I am wondering if Aviles could play LF he could take away AB's from Lupus against LHP's  (there's talk about playing Aviles in RF - I don't like that idea but I think he may be able to play LF; at least when we are talking about home games)

    And Shoppich could do the same w/ Salty

    6-9 could be OK

    RHP

    6  Lupus
    7  Kalish
    8  Salty
    9  Scut

    LHP

    6  Aviles
    7  Shoppach
    8  Kalish
    9  Scut
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?

    I think are pretty much in agreement on the points except that I know Crawford was moved out of the top 4 spots by Madden.  I had seen the games and I recall the announcers talking about it.  Crawford was moved to the 5-hole when Upton was hitting well in 2008 and I know against tough lefties he was batting below the top 5, 7th I think.  

    The numbers don't lie. In 2008, he had just 2 PAs outside of the 2 or 3 slot. He never started a game in other than 2 or 3 in 2008. In the 8 years from 2004 to 2011, he had just 13 PAs outside if the 1-3 slots. He was on a horrible hitting team.

    As bad as his numbers were ve LHPs over the years, TB never had a better option to platoon him with. Here in Boston, we do. (Almost every RH'd hitter and most LH'd hitter do better than CC.)

    I saw the games so I don't know where you got those stats.  

    Baseball Reference.

    Perhaps it wasn't as often as I believe but I know it was happening.  Regardless, we both agree (and the stats support it) he is terrible vs LH's.......Bottom Line - I'll agree to bat him 6th vs RH's if he's benched versus LH's.

    He hits a few LHPs pretty well, so he should so he could play those games.

    The key is Aviles in RF. If he can't play RF capably, then we are left with DMac to platoon with CC or Sweeney, and Sweeney is actually worse vs LHPs than CC.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?

    In Response to Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Where should Ellsbury bat? : Scutaro is a good #9 hitter Salty and Kalish could be productive Ben really can't do too much more here budget-wise given Lupus's enourmous salary. I am wondering if Aviles could play LF he could take away AB's from Lupus against LHP's  (there's talk about playing Aviles in RF - I don't like that idea but I think he may be able to play LF; at least when we are talking about home games) And Shoppich could do the same w/ Salty 6-9 could be OK RHP 6  Lupus 7  Kalish 8  Salty 9  Scut LHP 6  Aviles 7  Shoppach 8  Kalish 9  Scut
    Posted by andrewmitch[/QUOTE]
    Kalish is going to either be hurt or in AAA this season.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?

    Why platoon Aviles in RF when he could platoon directly in LF

    How about that?  A 20 million dollar guy splitting time with a one million dollar guy.  No wonder why Theo ran for cover.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?

     am not sure in what order but the top 3 should be Ellsbury Pedroia and Crawford. Crawford is the classic try too type of guy, give him his old spot back and tell him to relax and he should be fine.

    BOsoxJoe5, 

    With all due respect, this is so wrong on so many levels, it's hard to know where to begin:

    1) The 3 slot is not his "old slot". It was the 1 slot, then the 2 slot with the 3 slot being the slight majority slot in 2007 only.

    2) The 3 slot should go to someone who hits both LHPs and RHPs pretty well, so bringing in a LHP or RHP to end a late rally is not a good option for the opposing team. CC is awful vs LHPs.

    3) The 3-slot should be a high OBP guy (CC is not) with some good power (CC has a little power, but not on the Sox-comparatively )

    4) Why demote several more deserving players and mess with their pysche and confidence as they watch a worse hitter take their place or move them down a notch?

    5) Most importantly, we have multiple better options, including the bad idea of moving CC to 1 (vs RHPs) and Ells to 3. Here are all the better options than CC:
    Vs. LHPs:
    Everyone except Sweeney and maybe Salty.
    Seriously: almost everyone!
    Vs. RHPs: (2010-2011 OPS vs RHPs)
    AGon (.968) Our best option for 2012 vs RHPs.
    Papi (.995) Could argue batting Papi 3rd or 4th vs RHPs.
    Ells  (.909) I like him 1st, but still better 3rd than CC.
    Pedey (.837) if not 2nd--I'd even rather bat CC 2nd and Pedey 3rd than CC 3rd.
    Youk  (.811/.863 career) Played hurt in '11 but still had better OPS than CC
    Crawford: (.851) Career .812 (per 622 PAs vs RHPs: .306  14  66-- whoopie!)

    I see 5 better options than CC on our team. None of these guys should be demoted to 6th so CC can do worse at 3rd.

    Even Salty is a close option up 3rd vs RHPs over CC based on 2011 numbers alone.
      (per 622 PAs: .247  27  105)

    The best slot I could possibly see CC other than 6-9 or benched would be 2nd vs RHPs, based solely on Youk's recent decline, especially vs RHPs: 
    (Note: this is not my choice)
    vs RHPs
    1) Ells
    2) CC
    3) AGon
    4) Pedey **
    5) Papi
    6) Youk
    7) Salty
    8) Sweeney
    9) Scutty

    ** Pedey actually has hit best up 4th NOT 2nd:
    2nd .311/.381/.472/.853
    4th  .397/.439/.678/1.117 (in 133 PAs)
    Project to 665 PAs: .397  35  140  

    If Youk is hurt or continues his very recent career downslide, we should seriously think about putting Pedey or Papi 4th. (Batting Scutty or Aviles up 2nd vs LHPs if Pedey is moved)


     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxpride34. Show redsoxpride34's posts

    Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?

    there is no way that carl crawford should be hitting in the 7 hole again this year. you dont pay a guy 20 mill and hit him that low. he needs to be moved up in the order to build his confidence. thats where francona really screwed things up last year. He dropped crawford down and then when crawford did good he didnt move him up at all, leaving crawford frustrated. i have been thinking about where ellsbury should bat and have not yet come to a solid conclusion. what i do know is that we need to move crawford up. one line up i think would work is:

    crawford
    pedroia
    ellsbury
    gonzalez
    youk
    ortiz
    sweeney(would be kalish once he is healthy, but at this point sweeney is the best in house option we have)
    lavarnway/salty ( i would make lavarnaway the starter, i think he should be given every chance to win the starting job in spring training)
    scutaro (i would start iglesias but i know scutaro will be the starter)

    My reasoning for moving ellsbury down is that based on last year, he is capable of being more of a middle of the order bat and may not be best utilized in the leadoff spot. Have crawford, pedroia, and ellsbury hit in front of gonzo will provide him with even more rbi opportunities than last year. crawford needs to either hit lead off or 2nd. I like pedroia in the 2 hole so i put crawford as the leadoff hitter. I know crawford isnt a huge obp guy but i think he could improve in that area given the chance. a  big part of that is that doesnt draw many walks. He did get a fair amount of hits when he played in tampa which shows he can get on base but without the walks his obp will never be that high. i think that is our best line up. 
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?

    Crawford did good?  I must have missed that AB

    O B P = 2 8 9

    I recall he had a good May but that was it. 

    He consistently bad too:  AT NO POINT IN TIME DURING THE SEASON - NOT EVEN FOR A SINGLE DAY - DID HIS O B P HIT EVEN A MERE 300

    I just can not comprehend how this solution to this is to move him up in the line up

    And how does a former All Star who played in the World Series and who will have earned TWO-HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS and has been a sought after athelete since he had pubs, needs his "confidence rebuilt"

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?

    Crawford was batting 5th in the 2008 Playoffs:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TBA/TBA200810020.shtml

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHA/CHA200810050.shtml

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHA/CHA200810060.shtml

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TBA/TBA200810100.shtml

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TBA/TBA200810110.shtml

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS200810130.shtml

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS200810140.shtml

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS200810160.shtml

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TBA/TBA200810180.shtml

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TBA/TBA200810190.shtml

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TBA/TBA200810220.shtml

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TBA/TBA200810230.shtml

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHI/PHI200810250.shtml

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHI/PHI200810260.shtml

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from UticaClub. Show UticaClub's posts

    Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?

    What's with the fascination of calling Crawford by the name of Lupes. There is no such name. Do you mean to say Lupus? If so why?  When you said pubs, did you mean to say pubes? A pub is a tavern or a bar.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?

    there is no way that carl crawford should be hitting in the 7 hole again this year. you dont pay a guy 20 mill and hit him that low. he needs to be moved up in the order to build his confidence. thats where francona really screwed things up last year. He dropped crawford down and then when crawford did good he didnt move him up at all, leaving crawford frustrated. 

    Please! Stop the "confidence" BS. Crawford hit like he deserved to be on the bench. He was honored to be playing at all vs LHPs.

    You speak of boosting CC's confidence by moving him up, but neglect to take into consideration the "confidence" of Youk and Papi.

    Papi had a great 2011 season, and you want to demote him to 6th?
    Youk to 5th? He did better than CC, and you want him demoted?

    Nobody is upset batting lower in the order, unless they think they are better than someone ahead of them. Does CC really think he is a better hitter than Papi, Youk, Pedey, Ellsb, or AGon?  I think not.

    Instead, Papi and Youk would be scatching their heads wondering what they did wrong, and why a guy who hit horrible last year and has never hit better than them in any single year, should boot them out of their slots.

    CC deserves no better than 6th vs RHPs, and no better than 8th or 9th vs most LHPs.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?

    I haven't been on here since the debacle that this well intentioned thread became last night. I see the BS is just as deep today.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from J-BAY. Show J-BAY's posts

    Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?

    In Response to Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?:
    [QUOTE]I haven't been on here since the debacle that this well intentioned thread became last night. I see the BS is just as deep today.
    Posted by TheExaminer[/QUOTE]

    this went off the rails.....way off. 
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?

    No it didn't.  The issue was the batting order.  If you move Ellsbury out of lead off, how does that effect the rest of the order.  We have been focusing on Crawford given he is supposed to be a table setter and those with logic realize to assess him as a table setter is a big mistake.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from UticaClub. Show UticaClub's posts

    Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?

    I thought that the thread was about a little boy with blonde hair who played right field for the Bad News Bears in a 1976 movie. It sounds like Andrewmitch received a tape of that movie in his Christmas stocking and can't stop talking about it. Why not change your avatar to Timmy Lupus.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?

    I made my point in the lineup's deficiencies in a previous post. The team is stuck with a 1-5 that is as good as there is, and a 6-9 that might be as bad as there is. More moves obviously will be made by Benny the GM

    This is larglely myth:

    Have you seen most teams 6-9 hitters? Even  just AL teams?

    Our bottom of the order should be no worse than 2011, in fact, an uptick by CC could bring it way up. Salty could improve. Shoppach is slightly better than Vtek vs LHPs and BV will probably use a stricter C platoon than Tito. 

    Right now, our 6-9 line-up will probably be this:
         vs RHPs                            vs LHP
    6) Crawford .812             6) Shoppach .909
    7) Salty       .772             7) DMac        .799 (but over .800 with Sox)
    8) Sweeney .754            8) Scutaro     .742
    9) Scutaro    .722            9) Crawford   .684

    Now, compare these numbers with our 2011 6-9 slot numbers:
    6) .695  (We should blow this number out of the water in 2012)
    7) .778  (I expect about the same here in 2012)
    8) .629  (We could improve this slot by over 100 pts- see above)
    9) .757  (We may lose some ground here unless we play Aviles v LHPs not CC)

    I'd project our 2012 slot numbers to be something like this:
    6) .850
    7) .775
    8) .740
    9) .725 (.750 if DMac & Aviles play OF vs most LHPs)

    Aviles vs LHPs
    Career .814  (.924 in 2011)

    Now, let's look at other AL teams 6-9 slots last year:
    (You should see the NL team's bottom of the orders!!!)
    AL Teams with 80+ wins:

        Bos  (proj) NYY  Tex  Det  TB     LAA  Tor  Cle
    6) .695  .850  .726  .898  .842  .733  .775  .665  .668
    7) .778  .775  .738  .793  .720  .659  .755  .722  .730
    8) .629  .740  .838  .760  .768  .605  .708  .619  .638
    9) .757  .725  .638  .668  .637  .579  .541  .675  .619

    Texas was the most balancd, but their 1-5 was much worse than ours, and their highest OPS was the 6 slot. No other slot was higher than .858 (3rd) or .838 (1st).

    Look at Texas: Michael Young raised his OPS 80 points at age 34. Will he be at .854 in 2012?

    AL Teams with 79 or less wins in 2011:
         MN  Sea  Bal   KC   Oak  CWS
    6) .777  .635  .758  .759  .636  .616
    7) .639  .647  .759  .592  .606  .678
    8) .526  .572  .709  .684  .687  .766
    9) .539  .654  .690  .650  .704  .610

    It's the same argument I heard last year about VTek's hitting. When compared to other catchers, VTek was comparable to the average MLb starting catcher. He was out back-up, putting up vaerage starting catcher numbers, and some clowns thought he was a major reason for us losing.

    Yes, a balanced line-up is a great thing to have. Texas was more balanced than the Yanks or us, but both the Yanks and we were way better 1-5. 

    If you come close to agreeing with my 2012 projections for our 6-9 slot, we will probably have a better 6-9 line-up than all but maybe 2 other AL teams and have a shot at being #1.

    We lost these guys from 2012: almost all their PAs were in the 6-9 slots:

    Lowrie (341) .685  
      (Replaced by Aviles .775, Punto .809 , and maybe more PAs from  Youk.833)

    Drew   (286)  .617
      (Replaced by Sweeney .687-.743 v RHPs) , DMac .799 v LHPs & Aviles .775 v all )

    Redd   (278)  .784
      (See Drew)

    VTek   (250)  .723
      (Replaced by Shoppach .607 -.788 vs LHPs & more PAs by Salty or Lava .738)

    Cam    (105)  .477
      (See Drew)

    Navar  (40)   .626
      (See Lowrie)

    Jacks   (22)   .543    
      (See Drew) 

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?

    Ellsbury will stay right where he is for the time being, but if his trend line continues he could be put in the 3 hole by a team -- probably not Boston.
    If the Dodgers get a very wealthy new owner -- as is rumored -- it will be no surprise if they place Ellsbury on their shopping list. He'd be a natural for LA as part of an outfield with Kemp and Ethier.  He'd be a big hit in Hollywood. He even looks like a superstar.
    Hard to say what the Dodgers might ultimately be able to offer in return for Ellsbury, especially since the timeline stretches from now until the trading deadline in 2013. But if that club has the money to sign him long term it will be in the mix.
    It depends on what he does on the field, of course. This story will be followed closely, probably without great enthusiasm by most Boston fans.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from traven. Show traven's posts

    Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?

    Ells is a great leadoff hitter...he gets on and that is what he is supposed to do in that slot so that the big boys can bring him around.  If you make him one of the big boys, who gets on so all of the big boys can drive them in?  His speed would be wasted in the 3 hole...he steals 2nd and AGon gets walked...not a good thing.  As for the Crawford issue...let him earn his way into the lineup position he is best suited for...as Moon said earlier...he was lucky to not be coming off the bench all year the way he played.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?

    Why platoon Aviles in RF when he could platoon directly in LF

    Because as bad as CC is vs most LHPs, Sweeney is even worse... hence the possible need for bot DMac & Aviles as OF platoons.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?

    Let's look at other AL teams 6-9 slots last year:
    (You should see the NL team's bottom of the orders!!!)
    AL Teams with 80+ wins:

        Bos  (proj) NYY  Tex  Det  TB     LAA  Tor  Cle
    6) .695  .850  .726  .898  .842  .733  .775  .665  .668
    7) .778  .775  .738  .793  .720  .659  .755  .722  .730
    8) .629  .740  .838  .760  .768  .605  .708  .619  .638
    9) .757  .725  .638  .668  .637  .579  .541  .675  .619

    Texas was the most balancd, but their 1-5 was much worse than ours, and their highest OPS was the 6 slot. No other slot was higher than .858 (3rd) or .838 (1st).

    Look at Texas: Michael Young raised his OPS 80 points at age 34. Will he be at .854 in 2012?

    AL Teams with 79 or less wins in 2011:
         MN  Sea  Bal   KC   Oak  CWS
    6) .777  .635  .758  .759  .636  .616
    7) .639  .647  .759  .592  .606  .678
    8) .526  .572  .709  .684  .687  .766
    9) .539  .654  .690  .650  .704  .610

    Other than maybe Texas and NYY, what other team has better 6-9 or 7-9 hitters than us?  I know ours don't look "great", but comparatively speaking, they are better (or far better) than most.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?

    In Response to Re: Where should Ellsbury bat?:
    [QUOTE]Why platoon Aviles in RF when he could platoon directly in LF Because as bad as CC is vs most LHPs, Sweeney is even worse... hence the possible need for bot DMac & Aviles as OF platoons.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Still, Aviles in LF and DMac in RF then
     

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