Where to save, where to spend ...

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Where to save, where to spend ...

    I think history argues against mega-deals like those for A-Rod, Teixeira, Wells, Fielder, and others. If we don't QO some of our free agents, I wondering who might be available in the $15-18 million range that would be worth taking a chance on.

    Shane V has been such a great performer this year that I'd love to find two more of him for $30m/yr total.

    Who are the value free agents for us to be looking at right now?

     
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hammah29r2. Show Hammah29r2's posts

    Re: Where to save, where to spend ...

    just my humble opinion but I think that John Henry should open the vault and keep jacoby for what ever it takes.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from jete02fan. Show jete02fan's posts

    Re: Where to save, where to spend ...

    In response to Hammah29r2's comment:

    just my humble opinion but I think that John Henry should open the vault and keep jacoby for what ever it takes.

    12 years $299 mil sounds about right..Tongue Out


     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from jete02fan. Show jete02fan's posts

    Re: Where to save, where to spend ...

    In response to jete02fan's comment:

     

    In response to Hammah29r2's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    just my humble opinion but I think that John Henry should open the vault and keep jacoby for what ever it takes.

     

    don't know what those numbers look like but, he'll surely remain in Boston next season 

     

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Where to save, where to spend ...

    I think with only 42M currently owed in 2015, They would go over the Luxury tax a little in 2014 IF it was for a deal that makes sense. Not an A-Rod, Gonzo, CC type deal.

    I would go as high as 6/108 with Ellsbury. I think he will get more, but since Pence got 5/18, Ells has to get at least that. Probably more. The are already roumored to have offered 100M, so my guess on probably not far off from what they would offer.

    Signing Drew depends on how the Sox see Xander at SS. He will make a few rookie mistakes, but the offense looks pretty natural. If they can live with a few defensive mistakes, and Im not saying hes bad Im just saying Hes young and we can expect mistakes. Drew should get a 4yr deal, no less than 10M per somewhere.

    Salty should get 4 years at around 10M per. If the Sox think Vasquez and Swihart will be ready in 2015-16, then a 1-2 year stopgap is needed. If they think Salty is their guy, then I would say in the neighborhood of 4/40 would be a starting point. If not then You will need someone who can catch at least 100-120 games. Ross is a 60 game or so a year catcher and Lav is NOT the guy.

    Naps might stay. We have nothing as far as 1b prospects in the system that stand out. Someone like WMB or Cecchini could move there I guess, but I dont think thats their thinking right now. Mine either. Naps for 3 years at 13M per. I include protection for his hip issue. He could always DH the last year or two if need be. I like that move. He showed great defense and besides more K's than first thought, his stats remained right at/around his career norms.

    We might unload a pitcher or 2 this year. At least one before the season and one later in the season. I think Dempster and Peavy are salary dump types. Workman should be given the opportunity to get a rotation spot. They like Doubront, Buch is cheap at 8M, Lester will probably resign at some point, and Lackey is 16M over the next 2 years. Although Lackey could be an attractive player to dangle out there too.

    There will be movement in the bullpen too this winter. Maybe non-tender a couple guys and try to work out a lesser deal. Someone like Bailey and/or Morales. I'll take Miller back at his arb3 cost. Carp and Taz are each in their arb1 year this winter. Those are the only arb cases we have this offseason.

    Bunch of rule-5 prospects to decide on and some MiL FA as well.

    Busy winter for Ben.

     
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  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: Where to save, where to spend ...

    it's all house money coming off a title. 

    no way we retain JE.  Bora$ will get someone to blow $100MM away.

    move Hawaii to CF, Nava RF, jonny thugs LF. 

    Pray JBJ hitting approach is better for the inevitable S-Vic DL stint.

    Drew  - thanks dirt.  you honestly helped win us a title.  with your defense!  you should never have to pay for a beer in Boston.  but you will get paid elsewhere.  happy trails.

    X-Bo - here are the keys to SS for the Boston Red Sox.  if you come close to your ceiling...you will hold that spot for a long, long time.

    WMB - truth be told we are hesitant.  but, going into ST you have the starting 3b spot.  please work on consistancy. 

    Naps - those 2 years and $26MM that we had to pull off of last season's contract because: hip?  here they are.  please no extreme skiing in the offseason.

    Salty - you will be tempted to go elsewhere.  but you love it here.  we were the reason you can now throw the baseball back to the pitcher without having to count down from 7 everytime.  here is a contract for 3 years @ $28MM.  dont even think - just sign.

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from SleeStack1. Show SleeStack1's posts

    Re: Where to save, where to spend ...

    Would be nice to see McCann in Boston.... long shot....and probably too $$$

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Where to save, where to spend ...

    The Sox avoided crazy deadline signings this year. As a result of not overpaying, don't we have more lux tax flexibility than some teams out there?

    Detroit really scored with Iggy in terms of long control / low cost. Aren't there any similar control / cost situations for what we need that we're in a position to deal some pitching for? Anything?

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Where to save, where to spend ...

    I think with only 42M currently owed in 2015, They would go over the Luxury tax a little in 2014 IF it was for a deal that makes sense. Not an A-Rod, Gonzo, CC type deal.

    That number is a bit of an illusion, because we will have so many huge shoes to fill that we have to expect some will have to be through free agency or large extensions.

    After 2014, we will need to replace or extend all these players:

    Lester

    Ortiz

    Uehara

    Peavy

    Dempster

    Gomes

    Miller

    Morales

    Bailey

    Plus a bunch of guys getting arb raises needs to be figured in.

     

     

    I would go as high as 6/108 with Ellsbury. I think he will get more, but since Pence got 5/18, Ells has to get at least that. Probably more. The are already roumored to have offered 100M, so my guess on probably not far off from what they would offer.

    Maybe it was $100M/7. I can see overpaying at $90M/6, but I wouldn't go much higher than $75M/5.

     

    Signing Drew depends on how the Sox see Xander at SS. He will make a few rookie mistakes, but the offense looks pretty natural. If they can live with a few defensive mistakes, and Im not saying hes bad Im just saying Hes young and we can expect mistakes. Drew should get a 4yr deal, no less than 10M per somewhere.

    If a lost draft pick is attached to Drew, he may only get $30M/3.

    If he can get $14M/1 from us, is it worth him getting just $16M for the next 2 years?

     

    Salty should get 4 years at around 10M per. If the Sox think Vasquez and Swihart will be ready in 2015-16, then a 1-2 year stopgap is needed. If they think Salty is their guy, then I would say in the neighborhood of 4/40 would be a starting point. If not then You will need someone who can catch at least 100-120 games. Ross is a 60 game or so a year catcher and Lav is NOT the guy.

    I can see us signing Salty and then trading him in a year or two.

     

    Naps might stay. We have nothing as far as 1b prospects in the system that stand out. Someone like WMB or Cecchini could move there I guess, but I dont think thats their thinking right now. Mine either. Naps for 3 years at 13M per. I include protection for his hip issue. He could always DH the last year or two if need be. I like that move. He showed great defense and besides more K's than first thought, his stats remained right at/around his career norms.

    I think Napoli has the best odds of returning.

     

    We might unload a pitcher or 2 this year. At least one before the season and one later in the season. I think Dempster and Peavy are salary dump types. Workman should be given the opportunity to get a rotation spot. They like Doubront, Buch is cheap at 8M, Lester will probably resign at some point, and Lackey is 16M over the next 2 years. Although Lackey could be an attractive player to dangle out there too.

    We could restructure Lackey's deal to spread out the cap hit.

     

    There will be movement in the bullpen too this winter. Maybe non-tender a couple guys and try to work out a lesser deal. Someone like Bailey and/or Morales. I'll take Miller back at his arb3 cost. Carp and Taz are each in their arb1 year this winter. Those are the only arb cases we have this offseason.

    I'd like to see us sign Mujica.

     

    Bunch of rule-5 prospects to decide on and some MiL FA as well.

    Busy winter for Ben.

    Yes, it should be full or intrigue and excitement.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: Where to save, where to spend ...

    Maybe we can get Miguel Montero.... perhaps?

     

    Miguel Montero Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

     

    He is signed thru 2017 and a fair price and just came off a horrible season. Surely a Wil Middlebrooks might appeal to the DBacks. A Goldschmidt/Middy combo is enticing.

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from rameakap. Show rameakap's posts

    Re: Where to save, where to spend ...

    In response to SleeStack1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Would be nice to see McCann in Boston.... long shot....and probably too $$$

    [/QUOTE]

    Would love this as well.

    If the team has, say 6/108 million in them for Ells and could go as high as 4/40 for Salty, and Ells walks for that monster 6/126 Boras will probably get him, then I immediately give McCann 5/85 and Beltran 2/28. I don't think JBJ is ready yet. He can be a full-time CFer in 2015 after Gomes is gone. In this situation out OF would probably look like this:

    vs. righties: LF Nava (or Gomes if Nava is in RF) CF - Beltran RF Victorino (or Nava)

    vs. lefties - LF Gomes CF - Victorino - RF - Beltran or Nava

    Papi is signed for 1 year, obv to DH, who knows if he will play past that but I see one more season after next for Ortiz. The team will need a long-term solution at 1st after next season, but Napoli (3 years 36m) and Papi can share DH duties in 2015 and then Napoli and McCann can share some in '16 when one of our young catchers is ready to play half the season or so (McCann becomes an invaluable mentor for such a player).

    Finally, McCann becomes DH for his last 2 years. This is a guy whose swing and spray charts project for very good Fenway #'s. He is slightly above average defensively, but that still makes him better than Salty, he is only 1 year older than him and his avg #'s the past 3 seasons are all better.

    Salty - .244/.306 with a .763 OPS (.813 as a lefty) an avg of 18 HR and 60 RBI

    McCann - .252/.329/.770 an average of 21 HR and 65 RBI

    McCann did have about 25-30 more AB's per season and does have more wear and tear behind the plate. I just know he will be better behind the plate, we won't get run on as much and he will never look as helpless upt to bat, swinging at balls 8" away from him, as Salty did this postseason.

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: Where to save, where to spend ...

    i hope we sign napoli....i just love the guy..and i think he will hit more HR's next season...i just think 23HR was low for him...

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from rameakap. Show rameakap's posts

    Re: Where to save, where to spend ...


    Move Pedroia to leadoff if Ells is gone? Never seemed to light the world on fire when put there in an emergency, but with an offseason to wrap his mind around the idea I would like a player with a career .370 OBP up there. His slugging #'s have dropped drastically 4 years in a row anyhow.

    I would hit Middlebrooks 3rd. I know Xander will definitely have the better OBP, but Middy loves to swing away at bad pitches, but can easily be a 25 HR guy if he works on that. Hitting in front of Papi will mean he doesn't get thrown so much junk.

    2B-Pedey

    CF/RF - Victorino

    3B - Middlebrooks

    DH - Ortiz

    1B - Napoli

    CF/RF - Beltran

    C - McCann

    LF - Nava/Gomes (sometimes Nava in RF hitting 2nd)

    SS - Xander

    Carp, Ross and a veteran Alex Cora type lefty who can play all infield positions would be the bench

    Offer Bailey arbitration and sign another veteran with closer experience and between the two of them we hopefully get 1 healthy/nasty season of a set-up guy and Koji insurance for his age. Workman starts in AAA until one of those 2 ends up on the DL. Miller/Breslow the lefties. Obv Tazawa same 7th-8th role.

    If the team can't sign Beltran for a 2 year deal I would consider moving Dempster's 13.5m deal for an overpaid OFer like Andre Ethier or Jayson Werth. Both have like 4 years 70 million left on their contract. But after paying only 3-4m more than what Dempster is set to make, if the Dodgers or Nats throw in like 5m a year on the last 3 years for each player it could be worth it.

     

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from susan250. Show susan250's posts

    Re: Where to save, where to spend ...

    In response to raider3524's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    i hope we sign napoli....i just love the guy..and i think he will hit more HR's next season...i just think 23HR was low for him...

    [/QUOTE]


    Agree with you.  Even if he doesn't resign with the Red Sox he was one of the current Red Sox players that I was most happy for considering the heartbreaking loss in the World Series when he played for Texas.  I was rooting for them to win the World Series both of the times they were in it.   Josh Hamilton was one of my favorite MLB players when he was with Texas and many other players on that team that I really liked. 

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Where to save, where to spend ...

    In response to lasitter's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think history argues against mega-deals like those for A-Rod, Teixeira, Wells, Fielder, and others. If we don't QO some of our free agents, I wondering who might be available in the $15-18 million range that would be worth taking a chance on.

    Shane V has been such a great performer this year that I'd love to find two more of him for $30m/yr total.

    Who are the value free agents for us to be looking at right now?

     [/QUOTE]

    We have 6 legit SPs, plus Workman.  I think the first place to start is by planning on getting rid of Peavy or Dempster, depending on who returns the most value.

    So you start by offering all 4 FAs a QO.  JBJ replaces Ells, then you use Dempster or Peavy to replace Naps or Salty if they decline.  If Drew accepts, then I'd still feel pretty comfortable going with WMB/Carp at 1st.

    But we won't have a clue where to go for another 10 days.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Where to save, where to spend ...

     

    In the spirit of starting early, I looked at some (I felt) undervalued players, and ran them through the Uncannily Accurate Projection Machine, or UAPM (pronounced “uapm” or “whap ‘em”).

     

    I suggested Justin Ruggiano as a buy low candidate.   The early returns are Ruggiano would be a .253 / .333 / .478 hitter with 22HRs in 600PA.   Not bad, but I would never consider him for a role where he gets 600PA.  But he certainly can be had low.

     

    He was surprisingly close to his teammate Logan Morrison, whom I figured has breakout potential assuming he can ever get out of Miami.  Morrison projected in with a .267 / .368 / .451 with 16Hrs in 600PA.  He lets me down, although I do think he is going to break out big, especially if he gets out of Miami.  And I think the Marlins FO would like nothing more than to be rid of Logan Morrison, who still bears the distinction of being the only player in MLB history demoted to the minors for reasons related to Twitter.  (Ian Stewart was released for reasons related to Twitter, but he was already in the minors for reasons related to bad baseball, and, unlike Morrison, was not second on his team in HRs and RBI at the time.)

     

    On the free agent front, the smart buy for all listeners is Nate McLouth.  McLouth dials in with a .266 / .366 / .397.  Not much power (9 HRs in 600PA), but he did steal 30 bases last year. And also, he managed to break out of his “platoon” role and face LHP after being very limited for the previous few seasons.   Here is the leadoff many feel this team might be lacking.   McLouth stands a chance to be the biggest bargain in free agency this year.

     

    Another candidate who can probably be stolen away from his former team is Darwin Barney.  Known for his defense, Barney should also be known for his bad luck.  He projects as a .277 / .328 / .300 hitter.  Last year, he hit .208 with a .266 OBP.  He was KILLED by his .222 BABIP, especially since his xBABIP was .317.  That is a CRAZY difference.  With some normalization, his .206 / .222 slash line should have been .282 / .336.  Still no power, but absolutely stellar defensive play.   Barney has primarily played 2B in the majors, but has plenty of minor league and collegiate experience at shortstop.  His conversion to 2B had more to do with Starlin Castro than Darwin Barney.

     

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Where to save, where to spend ...

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to lasitter's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think history argues against mega-deals like those for A-Rod, Teixeira, Wells, Fielder, and others. If we don't QO some of our free agents, I wondering who might be available in the $15-18 million range that would be worth taking a chance on.

    Shane V has been such a great performer this year that I'd love to find two more of him for $30m/yr total.

    Who are the value free agents for us to be looking at right now?

     [/QUOTE]

    We have 6 legit SPs, plus Workman.  I think the first place to start is by planning on getting rid of Peavy or Dempster, depending on who returns the most value.

    So you start by offering all 4 FAs a QO.  JBJ replaces Ells, then you use Dempster or Peavy to replace Naps or Salty if they decline.  If Drew accepts, then I'd still feel pretty comfortable going with WMB/Carp at 1st.

    But we won't have a clue where to go for another 10 days.

    [/QUOTE]

    The Sox only have 6 SP if Buchholz is healthy...

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    Re: Where to save, where to spend ...

    In response to jete02fan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to jete02fan's comment:

     

    In response to Hammah29r2's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    just my humble opinion but I think that John Henry should open the vault and keep jacoby for what ever it takes.

     

    don't know what those numbers look like but, he'll surely remain in Boston next season 

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I wish I was as sure as you jete. Im hoping he'll take 5/90ish, but someone like Texas or NY may offer 7/120ish.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Where to save, where to spend ...

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    UAPM

    I suggested Justin Ruggiano as a buy low candidate.  

    [/QUOTE]


    I predict if the Red Sox make a trade this off season its with the Marlins.

    Ruggiano's key plus for me is that he is a righty OF. He would only fit if we lost either Ellsbury or Gomez. But if we did, he is almost perfect. My only concern is his arm if we played him in RF. Otherwise, he is a great, under rated fit. He has excellent righty power. Takes pitches. Good platoon splits. And of course getting him out of that park would juice his stats. I could see him putting up close to a .900 OPS at Fenway against lefties. He would be great as JBJ platoon insurance.

    Interestingly, the two areas I have seen Miami rumored to be interested in is 3rd base and offensive catcher. Middlebrooks has been specifically mentioned where they were said to like him. And then there is Ryan Lavarnway. I think Middlebrooks would be too much without it being a more complex package. But Lavarnway seems like a fair deal.

    Miami has an abundance of OF's in their system. Marisnick, Yelich and Ozuna to name a few. And two are CF's and two are righties. Ruggy looks like the odd man out for a team building with youth.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from 37stories. Show 37stories's posts

    Re: Where to save, where to spend ...

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to lasitter's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think history argues against mega-deals like those for A-Rod, Teixeira, Wells, Fielder, and others. If we don't QO some of our free agents, I wondering who might be available in the $15-18 million range that would be worth taking a chance on.

    Shane V has been such a great performer this year that I'd love to find two more of him for $30m/yr total.

    Who are the value free agents for us to be looking at right now?

     [/QUOTE]

    We have 6 legit SPs, plus Workman.  I think the first place to start is by planning on getting rid of Peavy or Dempster, depending on who returns the most value.

    So you start by offering all 4 FAs a QO.  JBJ replaces Ells, then you use Dempster or Peavy to replace Naps or Salty if they decline.  If Drew accepts, then I'd still feel pretty comfortable going with WMB/Carp at 1st.

    But we won't have a clue where to go for another 10 days.

    [/QUOTE]

    I say we have 7.  Despite his problems this year I think Webster is ready.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from proftom2. Show proftom2's posts

    Re: Where to save, where to spend ...

    I just want to wait and see. I thought they did a great job last winter.  Hope Jacoby stays, but will understand if he goes. Would like to see what JB Jr. can do. 

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Where to save, where to spend ...

    Spend on Jacoby

    Save on Catcher


    We can increase payroll this year so it shouldn't be too hard to put a team capable of repeating

    One guy that interests me is Roy Halladay.......

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxFanInIL. Show SoxFanInIL's posts

    Re: Where to save, where to spend ...

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to lasitter's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think history argues against mega-deals like those for A-Rod, Teixeira, Wells, Fielder, and others. If we don't QO some of our free agents, I wondering who might be available in the $15-18 million range that would be worth taking a chance on.

    Shane V has been such a great performer this year that I'd love to find two more of him for $30m/yr total.

    Who are the value free agents for us to be looking at right now?

     [/QUOTE]

    We have 6 legit SPs, plus Workman.  I think the first place to start is by planning on getting rid of Peavy or Dempster, depending on who returns the most value.

    So you start by offering all 4 FAs a QO.  JBJ replaces Ells, then you use Dempster or Peavy to replace Naps or Salty if they decline.  If Drew accepts, then I'd still feel pretty comfortable going with WMB/Carp at 1st.

    [/QUOTE]

    6 legit SP? No.

    WMB/Carp as 1B?  God no.

    JBJ replaces Ells?  A plus defender CF, integral member of 2 WS championships, top of the order star with 60 steal talent and drawing $100M offers this offseason is replaced by a minor leaguer that has proven/accomplished... um... nothing?  Good call.

    And an overpriced old .500 SP (Dempster) is going to replace Mike Napoli.

    You must have been a treat to trade baseball cards with as a kid.

    What, no Lavarnway & Breslow offers for Kershaw ?

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Where to save, where to spend ...

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Spend on Jacoby

    Save on Catcher


    We can increase payroll this year so it shouldn't be too hard to put a team capable of repeating

    One guy that interests me is Roy Halladay.......

    [/QUOTE]


    Why?

     

    Halladay has not been good or healthy for a couple of years now, and is entering his age 36 season.   For someone who rails against Buchholz because of his health issues, you sure don't appear to have thought this one through.

     

    The Sox have 6 better options at SP.  7 if we count Morales...

     
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