Re: Where to save, where to spend ...
posted at 11/1/2013 11:16 PM EDT
I think with only 42M currently owed in 2015, They would go over the Luxury tax a little in 2014 IF it was for a deal that makes sense. Not an A-Rod, Gonzo, CC type deal.
That number is a bit of an illusion, because we will have so many huge shoes to fill that we have to expect some will have to be through free agency or large extensions.
After 2014, we will need to replace or extend all these players:
Plus a bunch of guys getting arb raises needs to be figured in.
I would go as high as 6/108 with Ellsbury. I think he will get more, but since Pence got 5/18, Ells has to get at least that. Probably more. The are already roumored to have offered 100M, so my guess on probably not far off from what they would offer.
Maybe it was $100M/7. I can see overpaying at $90M/6, but I wouldn't go much higher than $75M/5.
Signing Drew depends on how the Sox see Xander at SS. He will make a few rookie mistakes, but the offense looks pretty natural. If they can live with a few defensive mistakes, and Im not saying hes bad Im just saying Hes young and we can expect mistakes. Drew should get a 4yr deal, no less than 10M per somewhere.
If a lost draft pick is attached to Drew, he may only get $30M/3.
If he can get $14M/1 from us, is it worth him getting just $16M for the next 2 years?
Salty should get 4 years at around 10M per. If the Sox think Vasquez and Swihart will be ready in 2015-16, then a 1-2 year stopgap is needed. If they think Salty is their guy, then I would say in the neighborhood of 4/40 would be a starting point. If not then You will need someone who can catch at least 100-120 games. Ross is a 60 game or so a year catcher and Lav is NOT the guy.
I can see us signing Salty and then trading him in a year or two.
Naps might stay. We have nothing as far as 1b prospects in the system that stand out. Someone like WMB or Cecchini could move there I guess, but I dont think thats their thinking right now. Mine either. Naps for 3 years at 13M per. I include protection for his hip issue. He could always DH the last year or two if need be. I like that move. He showed great defense and besides more K's than first thought, his stats remained right at/around his career norms.
I think Napoli has the best odds of returning.
We might unload a pitcher or 2 this year. At least one before the season and one later in the season. I think Dempster and Peavy are salary dump types. Workman should be given the opportunity to get a rotation spot. They like Doubront, Buch is cheap at 8M, Lester will probably resign at some point, and Lackey is 16M over the next 2 years. Although Lackey could be an attractive player to dangle out there too.
We could restructure Lackey's deal to spread out the cap hit.
There will be movement in the bullpen too this winter. Maybe non-tender a couple guys and try to work out a lesser deal. Someone like Bailey and/or Morales. I'll take Miller back at his arb3 cost. Carp and Taz are each in their arb1 year this winter. Those are the only arb cases we have this offseason.
I'd like to see us sign Mujica.
Bunch of rule-5 prospects to decide on and some MiL FA as well.
Busy winter for Ben.
Yes, it should be full or intrigue and excitement.