Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

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    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen? :  Scutero and he was just an over priced average SS.  And Iggy can replace him if needed.  He is a terrific fielder and will save many pitches for the staff if inserted.  He will have to hit a little better but he is young and will certainly improve at the plate with experience.    The Sox are looking for something else for sure now.  
    Posted by Mchampion[/QUOTE]

    Sorry I don't buy it. 6mil is not over priced for an average shortstop. Scoot was steady but not spectacular but atleast could hit and did hit .299 last year, was a very steady veteran presence who played hard every day. There is no proof Iggy can hit MLB pitching. I don't buy the argument about his saving so many hits, etc. The Sox now have put themselves in a corner and will most likely over pay Ortiz to keep him when they say they can't afford a lousy 6mil to keep Scoot. Unless they come up with a better plan this move doesn't make sense. All to save a lousy 6mil to sign pitching. This club can afford to go over the luxury tax if needed. Looks like they're becoming "cheap".  
     
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    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    I always liked Scuttaro, he hit Mariano Rivera in theat early game in August where Reddick had that key hit. JBAY you think they could go after Hensley Ramirez  and a pitcher ?


    In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen? : eventually, not this year.
    Posted by J-BAY[/QUOTE]
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    i feel confident this move signals more to come in terms of a pitcher....Scutaro was very good in his role...this is a perfect example why stats cant replace what happens on the field....Marco was a gamer, played harder than anyone on the team not named Pedroia, and manned the most difficult position nicely...he was a bargain at 6 million...I refuse to believe this is about making room for Papi's arb raise....Im hoping this means Iggy will start and Oswalt will be signed..Im also hoping that once Garza gets his 12 mil in arb, he gets traded for Beckett in an even swap....then our team can move forward from the 2011 debacle...
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from J-BAY. Show J-BAY's posts

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    [QUOTE]I always liked Scuttaro, he hit Mariano Rivera in theat early game in August where Reddick had that key hit. JBAY you think they could go after Hensley Ramirez  and a pitcher ? In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen? :
    Posted by AL34[/QUOTE]

    Not Ramirez, AL. The Sox don't have the high level prospects to acquire him via trade and the Marlins aren't looking to move him. He's come to terms with playing third, after they acquired Reyes. Not sure the Sox want him at this point. I think they're committed to giving Iggy a chance. We may see him at some point this year, but not to out of ST, expect he'll start in Pawtucket.  He was injured and missed the most of second half of the 2011 season, needs more time in the minors IMO. As far as a pitcher, yes. the 9-10 million the Sox have to spend after the Scutaro trade, to stay below the luxery tax threshold, I expect they will pick up another starter...possibly Oswalt.  
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from chuchos. Show chuchos's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    Salary dump for sure. And they get a bullpen arm. Fine by me. Just hope most of that $ doesn't end up up Papis pockets.
     
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    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?:
    [QUOTE]Raise your hand if you're hoping Starlin Castro from the Cubs has been given as compensation. I didn't say you believed it, just raise your hand if you hope......
    Posted by TheExaminer[/QUOTE]With Bud Selig making the call it's more likely we get Fidel Castro!!!! As for Mortensen he was the obligitory body that washed up on shore in order to free up the cash for Oswalt,now barring any last minute manuevers by his agent that is.....
     
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    [QUOTE]Scutaro had a .744 OPS here in Boston from 2010-2011. I doubt it would have improved at age 37. The choices we have now are all better fielders than Scutaro, some by a long shot. It's also interesting to note that Aviles and Punto could combine to put up a .744 OPS in 2012 as well. Aviles (32 not 37): with Boston in 2011: .775 Career OPS: .737 Career splits: .814 vs LHPs/.703 vs RHPs Punto (34 not 37): 2011 OPS with StL: .809 Career OPS: .652 Career splits: .654 vs RHP/.649 vs LHPs These numbers don't prove an Aviles/Punto combo can match Scutty's .744 Boston OPS, but they do show it is not unrealistic to think they may come close and make up for any shortcomings with much better defense at the key SS position. 
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE] Iglesias or Boergarts might be given a legitimate oppurtunity come ST to earn the job. Iggy is ready glove wise,whereas Boergarts
    is closer than we all think both offensively and defensively. One things for sure there won't be another flop artist trying to play SS this year.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    Could we give OPS a rest? 

    Could we give "attitude" a rest?

    While it's a good # for people who aren't capable of spending the time to dig further, this is a really a bad example of using it.

    OPS is flawed like all stats, but still remains better than using just OBP. I'm not about to list 4-5 stats each vs LHPs and RHPs. OPS tells a useful story.

    Scutaro batted 300 last year.  Had clutch hits.  
    He batted .284 in 2 seasons with Boston and turns 37 in October.
    Played a good defense. Wrong.
     And while most of team mates checked out last year, continued to play his heart out.  He earned my respect last year and I wish him well in Colorado. 
    I wish him well also. 
    Clearly this is a salary dump to try and add a starter - possible Oswalt OR, to cover Ortiz's asking price if he wins in ARB. 
    Exactly. Dumping CC, Lackey, Dice-K or Jenks was not an option. Dumping Youk would have created more problems than it solved.
    Also, I believe management is forcing Inglessias to take over at SS - they paid him very well for a minor leaguer and he's one of their top prospects:  I believe upper Mgt are demading an ROI for him now.
    The GM puts the tem together. Theo created some of the issues (and pluses), and now ben has to make it work. Scutaro was clearly the best option to dump salary. Yeah, it's too bad he was one of the gutsiest players on our team, but it made the most sense, in terms of dollar amount saved and who is available to take his place.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen? : Iglesias or Boergarts might be given a legitimate oppurtunity come ST to earn the job. Iggy is ready glove wise,whereas Boergarts is closer than we all think both offensively and defensively. One things for sure there won't be another flop artist trying to play SS this year.
    Posted by sportsbozo1[/QUOTE]

    You really expect a 19 y/o from low A ball is making the jump to MLB?  Not a chance.

    Now Iggy on the other hand......
     
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    [QUOTE]Are the Red Sox that poor that they need to dump a decent every day player for a nothing player who most likely won't be here long and no one to play SS. Iggy is not ready so forget that fantasy. So here we go again, a circus a short stop. This trade is a joke. I'm hoping ben knows something we do not, like another short stop. Right now this team looks like one step forward, two steps backwards and 3rd to 4th place. Hetchinspete. 
    Posted by Hetchinspete[/QUOTE]

    Pete,

    You can rage against the dying light to your heart's content, but this is how baseball works in the 21st century.

    It's not a bad trade, it's a good trade....I like Scutaro, but the reality is he was by far the highest-paid, and eldest, of our 3 utility infielders and it may enable us to improve one of the key areas (SP, SP & SP) that might cripple us if we don't make a move.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    i feel confident this move signals more to come in terms of a pitcher....Scutaro was very good in his role...this is a perfect example why stats cant replace what happens on the field....Marco was a gamer, played harder than anyone on the team not named Pedroia, and manned the most difficult position nicely...he was a bargain at 6 million...I refuse to believe this is about making room for Papi's arb raise....Im hoping this means Iggy will start and Oswalt will be signed..Im also hoping that once Garza gets his 12 mil in arb, he gets traded for Beckett in an even swap....then our team can move forward from the 2011 debacle...

    What have you guys been smoking? Scutaro was not a good fielder at all.

    He did hit pretty well in the clutch and vs the Yanks, but those are small sample sizes. People also ignore these small sample sizes:
    Marco vs TB (our true competitor in 2011): .188/.273/.313/.585
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    Neyer http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/1/22/2724724/boston-red-sox-scutaro-trade-rockiesand (and most of the comments) are largely surprised at how little Ben got for Scutaro.  I'm not.  After his carreer year in 2009 he got 2yr 12.5m.  Now 2 years older if he was a FA, how many teams would pay him $6m (plus the prospect in this case)?  The proof is in the pudding, as Joe B. said that is what his value is.

    Besides the cash saved, a statistical arguement can be made to say that Aviles is a better fielding SS.

    2008 - 2011 at SS Aviles  12.4 UZR/150
    2002 - 2011 at SS Scutaro  -2.8 UZR / 150

    and as Moon points out he is 5.5 years younger.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

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    [QUOTE]i feel confident this move signals more to come in terms of a pitcher....Scutaro was very good in his role...this is a perfect example why stats cant replace what happens on the field....Marco was a gamer, played harder than anyone on the team not named Pedroia, and manned the most difficult position nicely... he was a bargain at 6 million...I refuse to believe this is about making room for Papi's arb raise....Im hoping this means Iggy will start and Oswalt will be signed..Im also hoping that once Garza gets his 12 mil in arb, he gets traded for Beckett in an even swap....then our team can move forward from the 2011 debacle... What have you guys been smoking? Scutaro was not a good fielder at all. He did hit pretty well in the clutch and vs the Yanks, but those are small sample sizes. People also ignore these small sample sizes: Marco vs TB (our true competitor in 2011): .188/.273/.313/.585
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    According to baseball reference.com, Scutaro's fielding % was exactly that of the avg ss in the league .972

    you should watch the games more closely - Marco was more than adequate and fielded the position better than 1/2 of his teammates....at the most demanding position
     
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    [QUOTE] Besides the cash saved, a statistical arguement can be made to say that Aviles is a better fielding SS. 2008 - 2011 at SS Aviles  12.4 UZR/150 2002 - 2011 at SS Scutaro  -2.8 UZR / 150 and as Moon points out he is 5.5 years younger.
    Posted by tom-uk[/QUOTE]

    I wouldn't give too much weight to the UZR/150 figures for Aviles as far as a predictor of future performance is concerned.  For that stat to have any value, you need at least 2-3 full years of data.  Aviles only has 141 career starts at SS, and hasn't played much over the past 3 years.  747.2 of his 1212 innings are from 2008.  In 2009, his 2nd largest SS sample, he posted a -8.2 UZR/150.  This seems to indicate moderate to high variance in his historical SS performance, which requires a larger overall sample size to make defensive predictions going forward.
     
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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen? : According to baseball reference.com, Scutaro's fielding % was exactly that of the avg ss in the league .972 
    Posted by georom4[/QUOTE]

    There's a difference between being sure handed (fielding %) and being able to make plays.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    According to baseball reference.com, Scutaro's fielding % was exactly that of the avg ss in the league .972

    Come on Geo! Are you really still locked into Fldg % as the best gauge of a good fielder? Yes, Marco makes about the exact amount of plays hit at him that the average SS makes. Is that all you think there is to fielding?

    you should watch the games more closely - Marco was more than adequate and fielded the position better than 1/2 of his teammates....at the most demanding position.

    I watched every single game in 2011 and all but 2 in 2010. I even replay several plays. I always play particular close attention to defense, because that is what I enjoy. Scutaro is a horrible fielder, who got a little better towards the end of 2011 as he regained his health. His range is worse than all but Jeter's. He is bad at turning DPs and has a bad arm for relay throws. I don't need UZR/150 to show that I and most of the baseball world know the truth about Scutty's defense. He's bottom 5 easily, and probably bottom 2-3 out of 30.
     
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                         Is there a possibility that this is not a done deal yet? Is there a solid confirmation source for this deal? This seems to have gone down quickly. I'm wondering about physicals and stuff like.
     
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    [QUOTE]Could we give OPS a rest?  Could we give "attitude" a rest? While it's a good # for people who aren't capable of spending the time to dig further, this is a really a bad example of using it. OPS is flawed like all stats, but still remains better than using just OBP. I'm not about to list 4-5 stats each vs LHPs and RHPs. OPS tells a useful story. Scutaro batted 300 last year.  Had clutch hits.   He batted .284 in 2 seasons with Boston and turns 37 in October. Played a good defense. Wrong.  And while most of team mates checked out last year, continued to play his heart out.  He earned my respect last year and I wish him well in Colorado.  I wish him well also.  Clearly this is a salary dump to try and add a starter - possible Oswalt OR, to cover Ortiz's asking price if he wins in ARB.  Exactly. Dumping CC, Lackey, Dice-K or Jenks was not an option. Dumping Youk would have created more problems than it solved. Also, I believe management is forcing Inglessias to take over at SS - they paid him very well for a minor leaguer and he's one of their top prospects:  I believe upper Mgt are demading an ROI for him now. The GM puts the tem together. Theo created some of the issues (and pluses), and now ben has to make it work. Scutaro was clearly the best option to dump salary. Yeah, it's too bad he was one of the gutsiest players on our team, but it made the most sense, in terms of dollar amount saved and who is available to take his place.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    OPS tells a SUPERFICIAL story.  Why not look at the components that go into it invidually?  Why not understand what the player's role is?  Scutaro's job wasn't to be a slugger.
     
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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen? : I wouldn't give too much weight to the UZR/150 figures for Aviles as far as a predictor of future performance is concerned.  For that stat to have any value, you need at least 2-3 full years of data.  Aviles only has 141 career starts at SS, and hasn't played much over the past 3 years.  747.2 of his 1212 innings are from 2008.  In 2009, his 2nd largest SS sample, he posted a -8.2 UZR/150.  This seems to indicate moderate to high variance in his historical SS performance, which requires a larger overall sample size to make defensive predictions going forward.
    Posted by JB-3[/QUOTE]

    Name a better one!  If 1212 SS aren't enough then I guess we disregard the 1400 innings of poor numbers at 2nd and 3rd .  I understand the sample size issue and I would always quote three full seasons if possible, but what is the alternative?
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    OPS tells a SUPERFICIAL story.  Why not look at the components that go into it invidually?  Why not understand what the player's role is?  Scutaro's job wasn't to be a slugger.

    The role of any MLB short stop is to make the plays...preferably more than the opponent's SS makes on your players. If you make less, you have to make up for it on offense. If you make significantly less, you have to be a very good offensive player. I agree; it doesn't have to be as a slugger.

    Scutaro was a better than average offensive SS.
    His career  numebers are pretty good for a SS:
    BA    .270
    OBP .338
    Slg% .389
    OPS  .727

    with Boston (very respectable):
    .284/.343/.401/.744
    5th best SS BA in MLB
    7th best OBP
    7th best Slg%
    7th best OPS

    He also missed over 30 games last year due to injury or fatigue.

    My point is that there are more than one or two ways for SSs to win games for their teams. Scutty won some with his bat (more so than most SSs) and lost some with his glove and arm. My hope is that Iggy & Company will win more with their gloves and arms than they lose with their bats (compared to Scutty). I think it will be pretty even. 

    I understand we can not expect the same BA & OBP from Aviles, and we'll almost certainly getway less from Iggy & Punto, but the defense should at least even things out (or come close enough to allow the pitcher we get for $6M to tilt the balance).

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen? : I wouldn't give too much weight to the UZR/150 figures for Aviles as far as a predictor of future performance is concerned.  For that stat to have any value, you need at least 2-3 full years of data.  Aviles only has 141 career starts at SS, and hasn't played much over the past 3 years.  747.2 of his 1212 innings are from 2008.  In 2009, his 2nd largest SS sample, he posted a -8.2 UZR/150.  This seems to indicate moderate to high variance in his historical SS performance, which requires a larger overall sample size to make defensive predictions going forward.
    Posted by JB-3[/QUOTE]

    Name a better one!  If 1212 SS aren't enough then I guess we disregard the 1400 innings of poor numbers at 2nd and 3rd .  I understand the sample size issue and I would always quote three full seasons if possible, but what is the alternative?

    Aviles is certainly a decent SS. Not great, but not bad either. His RF/9 at SS is 4.51. Scutaro's is 3.95 (3.82 in 2011).

    Here's an interesting look at UZR/150.

    Out of all SSs with over 1,000 innings at SS since 2008:
    UZR/150
    1) Punto  14.2
    2) Aviles  12.4
    3) Wilson 11.4
    4) Janish 11.3
    5) BRyan 11.1
    6) Izturis  10.0
    7) Hardy    9.8
    8) Everett  9.2
    9) Barnes  9.1
    10) McDon 8,7
     Rollins 8.4, ARam 7.8, Santiago 7.2, Andrus 6.8, Escobar 5.9, Tulo 4.8, AGon 4.4...

    23rd Scutaro +1.2
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?:
    [QUOTE]According to baseball reference.com, Scutaro's fielding % was exactly that of the avg ss in the league .972 Come on Geo! Are you really still locked into Fldg % as the best gauge of a good fielder? Yes, Marco makes about the exact amount of plays hit at him that the average SS makes. Is that all you think there is to fielding? you should watch the games more closely - Marco was more than adequate and fielded the position better than 1/2 of his teammates....at the most demanding position. I watched every single game in 2011 and all but 2 in 2010. I even replay several plays. I always play particular close attention to defense, because that is what I enjoy. Scutaro is a horrible fielder, who got a little better towards the end of 2011 as he regained his health. His range is worse than all but Jeter's. He is bad at turning DPs and has a bad arm for relay throws. I don't need UZR/150 to show that I and most of the baseball world know the truth about Scutty's defense. He's bottom 5 easily, and probably bottom 2-3 out of 30.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Really, a horrible fielder???  If he turns the plays that he is supposed to make, and bats .300, what else do you expect from him???? Seems a little rough there Moon...almost Softy like....
     
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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen? : According to baseball reference.com, Scutaro's fielding % was exactly that of the avg ss in the league .972 you should watch the games more closely - Marco was more than adequate and fielded the position better than 1/2 of his teammates....at the most demanding position
    Posted by georom4[/QUOTE]

    What is your opinion of his RBI total?
     
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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen? : What is your opinion of his RBI total?
    Posted by SonicsMonksLyresVicars[/QUOTE]

    I thought that the discussion was about defensive ability. Scutaro was fine as an offensive SS.
     
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    In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen? : Really, a horrible fielder???  If he turns the plays that he is supposed to make, and bats .300, what else do you expect from him???? Seems a little rough there Moon...almost Softy like....
    Posted by georom4[/QUOTE]

    Extend the logic Geo....if the Statue of David, placed between 2nd and 3rd base, successfully caught 100% of the balls hit directly into its mouth but couldn't move, armlessly, to field the other 99.9% of balls a great SS would reach....is the statue a good fielder?  Or just a sure-handed (-mouthed) one?

    The difficulty is that FP is a fairly unassailable stat (fielding decisions being the only variable) while range factor is neither a mature stat nor widely accepted.




     

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