Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen? :Name a better one!  If 1212 SS aren't enough then I guess we disregard the 1400 innings of poor numbers at 2nd and 3rd .  I understand the sample size issue and I would always quote three full seasons if possible, but what is the alternative ?
    Posted by tom-uk[/QUOTE]

    It's not about having a better stat, it's about acknowledging the short comings of particular stats.  UZR/150 only has predictive value with very large samples, larger than most other stats require.  It would be nice to have a time weighted defensive stat, similar to UZR except that it would give extra weighting to the more recent samples.  Aviles hasn't posted a good defensive UZR since his rookie season.  Maybe it's because he was playing it everyday and could get in a rhythm, or maybe it's because he outgrew it.  Either way, he can't be worse than Scoot.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from caseycsw. Show caseycsw's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    Moon...While I agree that Scutaro is a below average defensive SS, I agree with Geo that calling him "horrible" as a fielder is a bit of uncharacteristic hyperbole for you...You might be right in your overall assessment, but I really do believe that the Aviles (who has only 141 games started at SS)/Punto platoon will not measure up....And most pundits agree that Iglesias is not ready yet to hit MLB pitching....I do think this "dump" is one the Red Sox will regret, unless Oswalt comes as a result and pitches well, sans injury problems......

    “Pray for the dead, and fight like hell for the living.”

    -          “Mother” Mary Harris Jones (union and community organizer, born 1837 (Ireland) – 1930 (U.S.))

    “You see, until a few weeks ago, it seemed as if Wall Street had effectively bribed and bullied our political system into forgetting about that whole drawing lavish paychecks while destroying the world economy thing. Then, all of a sudden, some people insisted on bringing the subject up again. And their (Occupy Wall Street) outrage has found resonance with millions of Americans. No wonder Wall Street is whining.”

    -          Paul Krugman, Princeton economist, N.Y. Times column, 10/16/11


     
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?


    Is Pedroia's range all that great? His arm? He won a gold glove not because of his range but his sure-handedness...he is almost a decade younger than Scutaro playing a less demanding position....

    The only sin Scutaro made was being a journeyman shortstop and starting for a team that was never got over its heartbreak for Nomar/OCab...

    He was a darn good player....If all the players played as hard as marco did in September, we mightve had a championship...
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from caseycsw. Show caseycsw's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?:
    [QUOTE]Is Pedroia's range all that great? His arm? He won a gold glove not because of his range but his sure-handedness...he is almost a decade younger than Scutaro playing a less demanding position.... The only sin Scutaro made was being a journeyman shortstop and starting for a team that was never got over its heartbreak of Nomar/OCab... He was a darn good player....If all the players played as hard as marco did in September, we mightve had a championship...
    Posted by georom4[/QUOTE]
    I have to agree with Geo about the Scutaro intangibles.....You are now looking at problems with the rotation, shortstop and right field....Maybe the Red Sox FO will resolve these problems before the season starts, but Oswalt, if he does come, better pitch up a storm and stay healthy, or this team will have some real hurdles to surmount.....

    “Pray for the dead, and fight like hell for the living.”

    -          “Mother” Mary Harris Jones (union and community organizer, born 1837 (Ireland) – 1930 (U.S.))

    “You see, until a few weeks ago, it seemed as if Wall Street had effectively bribed and bullied our political system into forgetting about that whole drawing lavish paychecks while destroying the world economy thing. Then, all of a sudden, some people insisted on bringing the subject up again. And their (Occupy Wall Street) outrage has found resonance with millions of Americans. No wonder Wall Street is whining.”

    -          Paul Krugman, Princeton economist, N.Y. Times column, 10/16/11


     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    Really, a horrible fielder??? 

    Maybe the term is subjective, but I'd call a bottom 5 SS very bad, and a bottom 2-3 SS "horrible". Maybe "very bad" is a better term.

     If he turns the plays that he is supposed to make, and bats .300, what else do you expect from him???? Seems a little rough there Moon...almost Softy like....

    I am Ok with a 25th best fielding SS who hits .300 and hits in the clutch, but the $6M contract tilted the balance.

    Also, just because he has a fielding percentage that is at the league average, does not mean he made "the plays he's supposed to make". DPs not converted are not called errors. Soft but accurate throws home that allow runners to score are not errors. Plays that involve range that other SSs make easily that Scutty doesn't even get to are not called errors, unless he drops it.

    Maybe it's rough, but I wouldn't call it "soft like".
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen? : I thought that the discussion was about defensive ability. Scutaro was fine as an offensive SS.
    Posted by UticaClub[/QUOTE]

    I know it was.  But the post I was referencing had mentioned Scutaro's fielding percentage as one of his virtues, so I thought it would be amusing (to me, anyway) to ask the poster what their view of Scoot's RBI total was....
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?:
    [QUOTE]Is Pedroia's range all that great? His arm? He won a gold glove not because of his range but his sure-handedness...he is almost a decade younger than Scutaro playing a less demanding position.... The only sin Scutaro made was being a journeyman shortstop and starting for a team that was never got over its heartbreak for Nomar/OCab... He was a darn good player....If all the players played as hard as marco did in September, we mightve had a championship...
    Posted by georom4[/QUOTE]

    Pedey has great range. His range is a big part of his being rated the second best fielding SS in MLB by UZR/150 from 2008-2011.

    Scutaro's RangeR was negative in that same time period.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from caseycsw. Show caseycsw's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    Aviles has shown flashes of potent offense, and I have no clue what he will look like at short...Maybe he will be more than adequate defensively, and my concerns are the wishful thinkings of a Yankee-fan...I guess I just don't like what the Red Sox got back for Scutaro....And if Mortensen becomes a middle-relieving bullpen stud or a respectable fifth starter, then I will officially eat my words....But something tells me the Red Sox are gonna miss Marco, and that we will be hearing about it again a few months from now...

    “Pray for the dead, and fight like hell for the living.”

    -          “Mother” Mary Harris Jones (union and community organizer, born 1837 (Ireland) – 1930 (U.S.))

    “You see, until a few weeks ago, it seemed as if Wall Street had effectively bribed and bullied our political system into forgetting about that whole drawing lavish paychecks while destroying the world economy thing. Then, all of a sudden, some people insisted on bringing the subject up again. And their (Occupy Wall Street) outrage has found resonance with millions of Americans. No wonder Wall Street is whining.”

    -          Paul Krugman, Princeton economist, N.Y. Times column, 10/16/11


     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen? : Pedey has great range. His range is a big part of his being rated the second best fielding SS in MLB by UZR/150 from 2008-2011. Scutaro's RangeR was negative in that same time period.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I watch Pedey every game - he does not have great range - diving for every ball doesnt equal range....as far as UZR goes Moon, you think you would have learned your lesson with Cameron being better than Ells in CF...remember that one??? There is almost no difference in fielding percentage over the last three years between Pedey and Scutaro...except that Marco is almost a decade older and has to throw twice the distance to get an out as compared to Pedey...
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxforlife22. Show soxforlife22's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen? : I watch Pedey every game - he does not have great range - diving for every ball doesnt equal range....as far as UZR goes Moon, you think you would have learned your lesson with Cameron being better than Ells in CF...remember that one??? There is almost no difference in fielding percentage over the last three years between Pedey and Scutaro...except that Marco is almost a decade older and has to throw twice the distance to get an out as compared to Pedey...
    Posted by georom4[/QUOTE]
    Get this through your head: fielding percentage is only part of it, and a small part at that. A couple percentage points of fielding percentage points means a few missed balls. A couple feet less range means a lot less plays made.
    Oh and diving does in fact equal more range... think about it. And beyond that he does actually have range. His speed is fine and his reactions/quickness are great
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    I watch Pedey every game - he does not have great range - diving for every ball doesnt equal range....as far as UZR goes Moon, you think you would have learned your lesson with Cameron being better than Ells in CF...remember that one??? There is almost no difference in fielding percentage over the last three years between Pedey and Scutaro...except that Marco is almost a decade older and has to throw twice the distance to get an out as compared to Pedey...

    Pedey has exceptional range, and I don't need UZR/150 to prove it (although it does).

    Yeah, I remember the Cam argument, and it has nothing to do with this argument.

    I don't care if Pedey is 10 years younger than Scutty, Scutty's range is horrible and was almost as bad 10 years ago as well.

    You overvalue Flg%, which is really not any better than UZR since it involves humans determining what is an error and what is not, and never takes into account mobility, quickness, and positioning/anticipation.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen? : It's not about having a better stat, it's about acknowledging the short comings of particular stats.  UZR/150 only has predictive value with very large samples, larger than most other stats require.  It would be nice to have a time weighted defensive stat, similar to UZR except that it would give extra weighting to the more recent samples.  Aviles hasn't posted a good defensive UZR since his rookie season.  Maybe it's because he was playing it everyday and could get in a rhythm, or maybe it's because he outgrew it.  Either way, he can't be worse than Scoot.
    Posted by JB-3[/QUOTE]

    What stat is best suited to use to make an assessment of how well Aviles will play SS?  The answer may be no stat, but that doesn't get us very far.  Yes UZR is more flawed than most stats,  but in the very difficult job of assessing defense I will quote it.  We all know the short-comings which have been mentioned plenty on here.

    After how many games is it worth noting?  If his career UZR is not worthy of note then certainly his single season 2008 UZR is of no relevance.

    Ultimately, Ben made a gamble and I can see the logic behind it.  If Aviles never put up that great 2008 number I would be puzzled. He has the potential to play a good SS, time will tell.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen? : What stat is best suited to use to make an assessment of how well Aviles will play SS?  The answer maybe no stat, but that doesn't get us very far.  Yes UZR is more flawed than most stats,  but in the very difficult job of assessing defense I will quote it.  We all know the short-comings which have been mentioned plenty on here. After how many games is it worth noting?  If his career UZR is not worthy of note then certainly his single season 2008 UZR is of no relevance. Ultimately, Ben made a gamble and I can see the logic behind it.  If Aviles never put up that great 2008 number I would be puzzled. He has the potential to play a good SS, time will tell.
    Posted by tom-uk[/QUOTE]

    Sometimes you just have to realize that there's no stat available for projection.  I don't have any problem with UZR given a sufficient sample.  The reason I bring up his 2008 UZR is because that's the vast majority of his career UZR that you cited.  I was showing why it was dangerous to use his career UZR as a projection in this case.  Overall UZR is one of the most reliable fielding metrics available for assessing how a player performed after the fact.  It's just it's predictive value that I believe has been overblown by many people in smaller samples.  The best predictor of future defense is still a trained eye, although even that needs a large enough sample.

    I like giving Aviles/Punto a chance to play SS everyday, at least until we have a chance to see how they handle the position, but I don't have any defensive expectations for them (good or bad).
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    Searching fangraphs UZR/150 from 2008-2011, SSs with 1,000 + innings:
    1) Punto
    2) Aviles

    I'm not saying these guys are the best 2 in MLB, but they aren't bad either.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?:
    [QUOTE]Searching fangraphs UZR/150 from 2008-2011, SSs with 1,000 + innings: 1) Punto 2) Aviles I'm not saying these guys are the best 2 in MLB, but they aren't bad either.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    If we have the 2008 version of Aviles, then we're in great shape.  Over 60% of Aviles' SS sample comes from the 2008 season at the age of 27 and he only has 195 innings at SS over the past 2 years combined.  If he was good enough to stick at SS long term, don't you think he would have had the chance to do so with the Royals?

    I don't have any problem with Punto.  While he also doesn't have the sample size you typically look for with UZR projections, he's never posted a negative UZR/150 either.  He's crazy consistent.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen? : Sometimes you just have to realize that there's no stat available for projection.  I don't have any problem with UZR given a sufficient sample.  The reason I bring up his 2008 UZR is because that's the vast majority of his career UZR that you cited.  I was showing why it was dangerous to use his career UZR as a projection in this case.  Overall UZR is one of the most reliable fielding metrics available for assessing how a player performed after the fact.  It's just it's predictive value that I believe has been overblown by many people in smaller samples.  The best predictor of future defense is still a trained eye, although even that needs a large enough sample. I like giving Aviles/Punto a chance to play SS everyday, at least until we have a chance to see how they handle the position, but I don't have any defensive expectations for them (good or bad).
    Posted by JB-3[/QUOTE]

    The best example (it has been beaten to death) about the trained eye is what "baseball people" said about Jeter.  He does some things well like charge balls and catch flares, but of course he also made some nice flocks in the PO with everyone watching.

    The problem is he was about league worst in total fielded grounders even though his teammates were within normal ranges. The trained eye had created a myth that stats were used to soundly debunk IMO.

    I think Scutaro is a ticking injury time-bomb.  Plantar fascitis, cervical prolapsed disc leading to muscular atrophy, and a rotator cuff tear in the last three seasons. It is to his credit how well he has played, no doubt a gamer. I worry about an old SS with a history of throwing problems.

    Aviles has his injury and poor performance issues as well.  Hence, KC dumping him.  I still like the move by Ben.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen? : The best example that has been beaten to death I know about the trained eye is what "baseball people" said about Jeter.  He does some things well like charge balls and catch flares, but of course he also made some nice flocks in the PO with everyone watching. The problem is he was about league worst in total fielded grounders even though his teammates were within normal ranges. The trained eye had created a myth that stats were used to soundly debunk IMO. I think Scutaro is a ticking injury time-bomb.  Plantar fascitis, cervical prolapsed disc leading to muscular atrophy, and a rotator cuff tear in the last three seasons. It is to his credit how well he has played, no doubt a gamer. I worry about an old SS with a history of throwing problems. Aviles has his injury and poor performance issues as well.  Hence, KC dumping him.  I still like the move by Ben.
    Posted by tom-uk[/QUOTE]
    Tom, allow for the possibility that the "PR eye" did most of the talking about Jeter. He seems to have been a teflon-coated player virtually from the day he became the Yankee shortstop. Once uncritical talk about a player gains momentum, especially in NY, people hesitate to to be the first to demur.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    i dont mind using stats to learn more about a player - but if UZR was so wrong about Cameron....why would it be accurate in any situation???? I literally laughed at the idea to replace ells in CF with old man Cameron....and I had to endure an entire spring training of UZR nonsense.....Crawford was a UZR dream...until he played in Fenway...is he a good fielder but not here....what to make of that??? does UZR measure confidence? why does UZR vary so much from one year to the next??? this is where Moon's opinion of marco being a terrible fielder...it is all statistical nonsense...Moon says he saw every game and could point to numerous times during every game where marco cost us a hit, extra base, or run....i find that to be pretty unbelievable...out of 27 outs a game, how many does a shortstop handle directly or indirectly (relay/stolen base)????  How many could be gamechangers?????


     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?:
    [QUOTE]i dont mind using stats to learn more about a player - but if UZR was so wrong about Cameron....why would it be accurate in any situation???? I literally laughed at the idea to replace ells in CF with old man Cameron....and I had to endure an entire spring training of UZR nonsense.....Crawford was a UZR dream...until he played in Fenway...is he a good fielder but not here....what to make of that??? does UZR measure confidence? why does UZR vary so much from one year to the next??? this is where Moon's opinion of marco being a terrible fielder...it is all statistical nonsense...Moon says he saw every game and could point to numerous times during every game where marco cost us a hit, extra base, or run....i find that to be pretty unbelievable...out of 27 outs a game, how many does a shortstop handle directly or indirectly (relay/stolen base)????  How many could be gamechangers?????
    Posted by georom4[/QUOTE]

    You mean Cameron wasn't a gold glove candidate in 2011?  His fielding percentage was 1.000!

    As for his 2010 defensive nightmare for the Sox, you don't think that had anything to do with his injuries?  Really?  UZR acknowledges that he was terrible in 2010.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?:
    [QUOTE]i dont mind using stats to learn more about a player - but if UZR was so wrong about Cameron....why would it be accurate in any situation???? I literally laughed at the idea to replace ells in CF with old man Cameron....and I had to endure an entire spring training of UZR nonsense.....Crawford was a UZR dream...until he played in Fenway...is he a good fielder but not here....what to make Posted by georom4[/QUOTE]

    sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/21 Apr 2010Cameron was diagnosed with an abdominal tear and placed on the 15-day disabled list on Monday.

    sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/news/story?id=5537410Cached - Similar5 Sep 2010 – Mike Cameron. The veteran center fielder had surgery to repair an abdominal tear Aug. 26, a procedure that took 4 ½ hours.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    wonderful revisionist history...Cameron was GIVEN the starting CF job before any tear, before any injury...he was no match for Ells in CF - he wasnt half the fielder that Ells was...unless you read his wonderful UZR scores....common sense fans questioned the wisdom of making such a radical change based on statistics...we were right - not because of injuries (when they didnt exist) but because of what we saw..instead we had to hear all that garbage about Ells lack of jump, his inability to read the ball, how cameron was superior in every way....and that was wrong....now a guy like scutaro plays his heart out for us for two years, at the toughest position, he fielding % is average that of all other shortstops, and now he's a bum????

    dumb and ungrateful

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    You're judging his defense by the time he was with the Sox.  While he was with the Sox, he was hurt the vast majority of the time.  UZR agrees that he was terrible with Boston.  Cameron was widely regarded as an elite defensive CF prior to joining Boston.  Hindsight is 20/20.

    Going by your logic, Cameron would have been a gold glover had he played a full season last year.  So which is it?  Is Cameron a good defender, or does fielding percentage have it's flaws as well?
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    In Response to Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?:
    [QUOTE]You're judging his defense by the time he was with the Sox.  While he was with the Sox, he was hurt the vast majority of the time.  UZR agrees that he was terrible with Boston.  Cameron was widely regarded as an elite defensive CF prior to joining Boston.  Hindsight is 20/20. Going by your logic, Cameron would have been a gold glover had he played a full season last year.  So which is it?  Is Cameron a good defender, or does fielding percentage have it's flaws as well?
    Posted by JB-3[/QUOTE]


    Im not the one arguing one statistic or another...im stating that what i saw, Marco was adequate and competent as a ss....i didnt have to check his stats to believe it one way or another....i think people are in for a rude awakening if they think Inglesias is going to be so awesome as SS that he will "save" runs...if anything, he will take them away with his weak bat compared to marco...
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    If we have the 2008 version of Aviles, then we're in great shape.  Over 60% of Aviles' SS sample comes from the 2008 season at the age of 27 and he only has 195 innings at SS over the past 2 years combined.  If he was good enough to stick at SS long term, don't you think he would have had the chance to do so with the Royals?

    I don't have any problem with Punto.  While he also doesn't have the sample size you typically look for with UZR projections, he's never posted a negative UZR/150 either.  He's crazy consistent.

    I wasn't saying I think Aviles is a top fielding SS, just because his small samople says he might be. I'm just saying his range is better than Scutty, and overall, he is a better fielder... not great, but better.
     
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    Re: Who the heck is Clayton Mortensen?

    I really enjoyed Scutaro and thought thats the guy that should have been the real leader of this team. I did think his lack of range hurt us but i dont see how you put him as the bottom 2-3 in the league. I also watch most of the games, played ss through collage, but you must have a better tv than i do  Hard for me to see the entire play as far as postioning , how hard ball was hit, etc. If you want to talk about lack of range how about Youk to Beltre, now that even i could see on tv. It probably also hurt Scutes image.
     

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