Who wins a Red Sox / A's tiebreaker?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: Who wins a Red Sox / A's tiebreaker?

    In response to Sheriff-Rojas' comment:

    The Red Sox are 81-57 Intraleague.  The A's are 80-56.  Softlaw/Fireman is a dckhead.



    The Oakland A's played the Astros 19 times this season going 15-4.  That sure helps them.  

    Oakland is 4-2 vs. the Angels at Anaheim and 2-4 vs. Seattle in Seattle.  

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Who wins a Red Sox / A's tiebreaker?


    Ice-cream has it right.  Oakland benefits from being in the West Division, especially with Houston.  Our worst team is Toronto, which actually competes.  I think the final games at LA and Seattle will not be easy, but who knows?  Maybe Oakland will stay hot or maybe the Angels and Mariners will roll over and play dead.  The Rockies will not and the Orioles absolutely will not. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Who wins a Red Sox / A's tiebreaker?

    In response to TheExaminer's comment:

    ....and dont think for a moment that LA doesnt know they hold Oakland's fate in their hands..

     




    LAA is soft though

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Who wins a Red Sox / A's tiebreaker?

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:

    it's still TBD - that's the bottom line for now

    there is a magic # for the Sox to get top seed.  I think it's 3???  you can figure it out by looking at the standings and how many games are left.......



    It's 3 over the Tigers.   The A's have 63 losses, so the Magic Number to clinch over them is 5, which would give the Sox 100 wins.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Who wins a Red Sox / A's tiebreaker?

    Well, the bottom line is the O's once again have our future in their hands

    It would be nice not to allow Buck and company to beat us out this time

    And yes I can't prove Davis is juicing (so he is not) but if I am a betting man.........he sure is.......

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Who wins a Red Sox / A's tiebreaker?

    Every game in the Play-offs is going to be a dogfight. Doesn't matter where or who. You win Play-off baseball by playing sound Fundemental Baseball. Pitching, Defense, and clutch hitting, and brains.

     Getting there is the hard part.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Who wins a Red Sox / A's tiebreaker?

    To respond to a guy about hoping that the yankees get back in the wildcard chase, I think they are done.  Already four games behind the #2 wildcard leader.  The Yankees is more likely need to go 6-0 and hopefully like Cleveland or Texas or Tampa go like 1-5 or 0-6.  I do not see it is happening

    So forget the Yankees.  It looked alike right now it is a three teams race.  Kansas City the forth team in the standing have a very slight chance to get back into the race.  Kansas City goes to Seattle and then back to Chicago White Sox.  Not a good road trip for them.  Anyone who have a funny west or long road trip between two cities tended to struggle.   Look at Rays and Texas too.  

    For now we can still hope that Texas can try to make a three way tie with Tampa and Cleveland to force two games playoff games!!

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Who wins a Red Sox / A's tiebreaker?

    In response to GoUconn13's comment:

    To respond to a guy about hoping that the yankees get back in the wildcard chase, I think they are done.  Already four games behind the #2 wildcard leader.  The Yankees is more likely need to go 6-0 and hopefully like Cleveland or Texas or Tampa go like 1-5 or 0-6.  I do not see it is happening

    So forget the Yankees.  It looked alike right now it is a three teams race.  Kansas City the forth team in the standing have a very slight chance to get back into the race.  Kansas City goes to Seattle and then back to Chicago White Sox.  Not a good road trip for them.  Anyone who have a funny west or long road trip between two cities tended to struggle.   Look at Rays and Texas too.  

    For now we can still hope that Texas can try to make a three way tie with Tampa and Cleveland to force two games playoff games!!

     




    so there would have to be TWO MORE games (not just 1) if there was a 3 way?  I think I recall seeing that

     

    that would be the best case scenario by far along w/ a top seed

     

    ask and you shall receive

     

    DONE!!!!!!!!!  I am pulling a Joe Namath!!!!

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Who wins a Red Sox / A's tiebreaker?

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:

    In response to GoUconn13's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    To respond to a guy about hoping that the yankees get back in the wildcard chase, I think they are done.  Already four games behind the #2 wildcard leader.  The Yankees is more likely need to go 6-0 and hopefully like Cleveland or Texas or Tampa go like 1-5 or 0-6.  I do not see it is happening

    So forget the Yankees.  It looked alike right now it is a three teams race.  Kansas City the forth team in the standing have a very slight chance to get back into the race.  Kansas City goes to Seattle and then back to Chicago White Sox.  Not a good road trip for them.  Anyone who have a funny west or long road trip between two cities tended to struggle.   Look at Rays and Texas too.  

    For now we can still hope that Texas can try to make a three way tie with Tampa and Cleveland to force two games playoff games!!

     

     




    so there would have to be TWO MORE games (not just 1) if there was a 3 way?  I think I recall seeing that

     

     

    that would be the best case scenario by far along w/ a top seed

     

    ask and you shall receive

     

    DONE!!!!!!!!!  I am pulling a Joe Namath!!!!

    [/QUOTE]

    Wild Card: What about the various AL scenarios, which one might punnilycharacterize as being "wild"?

    As noted above, it remains a crowded scrum for the two AL wild-card bids, what with theRangersRays, Indians, Orioles, Royals and Yankees all having designs on a berth. The MLB rules for such affairs -- at least the ones publicly disclosed -- provide for, at most, four-team tiebreaker scenarios. So we'll cover those here ...

    Two teams tie for one wild card: Very straightforward. One-game playoff on Sept. 30 with home-field advantage determined by the methods noted above in the Cardinals-Pirates section.

    Three teams tie for one wild card: Teams A, B and C are assigned as noted above and they play as noted above -- i.e. B at A, followed by the winner of A-B at C with the bid at stake.

    - Three teams tie for both wild cards: Game 1: Team B @ Team A, winner gets wild card; Game 2: Loser of Game 1 @ Team C, winner gets remaining wild card.

    - Four teams tie for one wild card: Tournament format. B @ A, D @ C, winners of those two games play for wild-card berth.

    Four teams tie for both wild cards: Game 1: Team B @ Team A, winner gets wild card; Game 2: Team D @ Team C, winner gets remaining wild card.

    All of that made perfect sense, right? Good. Now consider yourself prepped for the 

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    Re: Who wins a Red Sox / A's tiebreaker?

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:

    Well, the bottom line is the O's once again have our future in their hands

    It would be nice not to allow Buck and company to beat us out this time

    And yes I can't prove Davis is juicing (so he is not) but if I am a betting man.........he sure is.......



    I dread that as well. My dream scenario has the Sox clinching HFA, AND knocking Baltimore out of the playoffs on Friday night. Very possible, and would also most likely entail a Bal win today at TB, which only makes things better. Their number for elimination is 3, so I dont want them to be eliminated and have nothing to lose before we get to them. I also agree that Davis is up to something.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    Re: Who wins a Red Sox / A's tiebreaker?

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:

    In response to TheExaminer's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    ....and dont think for a moment that LA doesnt know they hold Oakland's fate in their hands..

     

     




    LAA is soft though

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Somewhat, but have been playing better lately. They beat Oakland Wednesday. Thye are also at home now, and know they can damage the A's. All they have to do is win one of three to help us. I dont think thats too much to expect. If they win two of three, we might be home free.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Who wins a Red Sox / A's tiebreaker?

    In response to TheExaminer's comment:

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Well, the bottom line is the O's once again have our future in their hands

    It would be nice not to allow Buck and company to beat us out this time

    And yes I can't prove Davis is juicing (so he is not) but if I am a betting man.........he sure is.......

     



    I dread that as well. My dream scenario has the Sox clinching HFA, AND knocking Baltimore out of the playoffs on Friday night. Very possible, and would also most likely entail a Bal win today at TB, which only makes things better. Their number for elimination is 3, so I dont want them to be eliminated and have nothing to lose before we get to them. I also agree that Davis is up to something.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Baltimore may be out of the playoff by the time they face the Red Sox.  IF Orioles wants to get back into the post season, they need to win every single game at the same time they hope that the A's loses every game to the Angels.  So the Red Sox can just clinch the homefield advantage before the Orioles/Red Sox series cuz the Orioles knows that the Red Sox may not even take that series too serious.   

    But if the A's are still winning games, the Red Sox will make themselves to play seriously, and try to win games too to prevent A's from getting the homefield advantage.  That may be a bad news to the Orioles cuz the Red Sox players have stated that they will work hard to keep themselves to get the homefield advantage until they get it.

    So it is Orioles's chance of making to the wildcard are slim right now.  

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    Re: Who wins a Red Sox / A's tiebreaker?

    In response to GoUconn13's comment:

    In response to TheExaminer's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    Well, the bottom line is the O's once again have our future in their hands

    It would be nice not to allow Buck and company to beat us out this time

    And yes I can't prove Davis is juicing (so he is not) but if I am a betting man.........he sure is.......

     

     



    I dread that as well. My dream scenario has the Sox clinching HFA, AND knocking Baltimore out of the playoffs on Friday night. Very possible, and would also most likely entail a Bal win today at TB, which only makes things better. Their number for elimination is 3, so I dont want them to be eliminated and have nothing to lose before we get to them. I also agree that Davis is up to something.

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Baltimore may be out of the playoff by the time they face the Red Sox.  IF Orioles wants to get back into the post season, they need to win every single game at the same time they hope that the A's loses every game to the Angels.  So the Red Sox can just clinch the homefield advantage before the Orioles/Red Sox series cuz the Orioles knows that the Red Sox may not even take that series too serious.   

     

    But if the A's are still winning games, the Red Sox will make themselves to play seriously, and try to win games too to prevent A's from getting the homefield advantage.  That may be a bad news to the Orioles cuz the Red Sox players have stated that they will work hard to keep themselves to get the homefield advantage until they get it.

    So it is Orioles's chance of making to the wildcard are slim right now.  

    [/QUOTE]

    Well, nothing would please me more than seeing the Sox waltz into Baltimore and take over. And I really do hope we are the ones that deliver the final blow. Fitting.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Who wins a Red Sox / A's tiebreaker?

    RE:  Davis

    He has nearly doubled his HR PER AB's (19 down to 11).......I will give him that he is entering his prime today but that seems like a statistical outlier.....I'd like to see the data on other ML's who went from 1 HR every 19 AB's to 1 HR every 11 AB's in a single season....And then compute the statistical probability for it happening. 

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Who wins a Red Sox / A's tiebreaker?

    RE:  Balt this weekend

    Well, they completely and totally stomped on the throats of the yankees.  Mission accomplished there 100%.  I need them to do that to the Orioles now too to prove a point.  This time, the O's won't have Crawford to rely on in Leftfield to help their chances......

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: Who wins a Red Sox / A's tiebreaker?

    The A's wont make it past the divisional round.  we just need to make sure we finish with a better record than dirty D.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from soups. Show soups's posts

    Re: Who wins a Red Sox / A's tiebreaker?

    Really, the best thing here is that the Sox don't allow it to go to a push at all.

    5-0, 4-1, 3-2.  All viable options here.  Like to avoid 3-2, but that still gives them a shot anyway.  Willing to bet that most (fans and media) would have the Sox going 3-2 or 4-1 the rest of the way. 

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from illinoisredsox. Show illinoisredsox's posts

    Re: Who wins a Red Sox / A's tiebreaker?

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:

    RE:  Davis

    He has nearly doubled his HR PER AB's (19 down to 11).......I will give him that he is entering his prime today but that seems like a statistical outlier.....I'd like to see the data on other ML's who went from 1 HR every 19 AB's to 1 HR every 11 AB's in a single season....And then compute the statistical probability for it happening. 



    Playing 81 games in Baltimore might explain some of it.  Camden Yards has yielded the 4th most HRs this year, Arlington Stadium (Davis previous home) is 19th.

    Last year (first full year in Baltimore) was 1 HR per 15 ABs (33 in 515).  He also recorded 1 every 17.3 ABs his rookie year in 2008.

    The 51 might prove to be a peak number, but I can see him putting up 40+ for the next several years.

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Who wins a Red Sox / A's tiebreaker?

    good point but isn't Arlington a homer friendly park too?

     

    last year in Balt he was 16 AB's (so 19 to 16 to 11)........


    at home he is at 10 AB's per HR and the road is 13 - maybe it explains some but not all...


    my prediction is that Davis will eventually get caught for doing something.  Add Miggy to that list too.......

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: Who wins a Red Sox / A's tiebreaker?

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:

    my prediction is that Davis will eventually get caught for doing something.  Add Miggy to that list too.......



    and Cano.  the rumors were that he was already nailed in the Spring but wriggled out of it.  prob on a technicality.  wouldnt really surprise me if in 20 years when rivera writes a tell-all because he blew through his fortune that he names himself, jeter, and posada as users.  i expect when all is said and done the entire 2003 yankees team will be exposed.  half of them are proven users already......

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Who wins a Red Sox / A's tiebreaker?

    In response to slasher9's comment:

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    my prediction is that Davis will eventually get caught for doing something.  Add Miggy to that list too.......

     



    and Cano.  the rumors were that he was already nailed in the Spring but wriggled out of it.  prob on a technicality.  wouldnt really surprise me if in 20 years when rivera writes a tell-all because he blew through his fortune that he names himself, jeter, and posada as users.  i expect when all is said and done the entire 2003 yankees team will be exposed.  half of them are proven users already......

     

    [/QUOTE]

    That's right about CANO - wonder why no yankee fan brings that up?

    If you believe in the Mitchell Report, about 20% of all yankees from 1996 have been using

    Of course, speculation is just speculation.  With Rodriguez and Petitte there is NO speculation - it is an absolute fact.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Who wins a Red Sox / A's tiebreaker?

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:

    In response to slasher9's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    my prediction is that Davis will eventually get caught for doing something.  Add Miggy to that list too.......

     

     



    and Cano.  the rumors were that he was already nailed in the Spring but wriggled out of it.  prob on a technicality.  wouldnt really surprise me if in 20 years when rivera writes a tell-all because he blew through his fortune that he names himself, jeter, and posada as users.  i expect when all is said and done the entire 2003 yankees team will be exposed.  half of them are proven users already......

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    That's right about CANO - wonder why no yankee fan brings that up? 

    Cabrera and Cano are BFF's too, don't forget that.

    If you believe in the Mitchell Report, about 20% of all yankees from 1996 have been using

    Of course, speculation is just speculation.  With Rodriguez and Petitte there is NO speculation - it is an absolute fact.

    [/QUOTE]


     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from illinoisredsox. Show illinoisredsox's posts

    Re: Who wins a Red Sox / A's tiebreaker?

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:

    good point but isn't Arlington a homer friendly park too?

     

    last year in Balt he was 16 AB's (so 19 to 16 to 11)........


    at home he is at 10 AB's per HR and the road is 13 - maybe it explains some but not all...


    my prediction is that Davis will eventually get caught for doing something.  Add Miggy to that list too.......




     

    I always thought Arlington was up there too, but at least this year, it's definitely middle of the pack.  I did use the wrong stat before (looked at park factor instead of HRs/game).  Per ESPN, Arlington yields 2.01 HRs per game, tied for 7th in the AL.  Camden Yards has averaged 2.89 HR's per game, which is 1st in the AL.

     

    As for Davis, you could be right, maybe he is on something.  But I see a 27 year old guy who hit 33 in his first year as a regular last season, who hit 17 in 80 games his rookie year and who hit 21 in 113 games his sophomore year .  Like I said, while 50+ may ultimately represent his career high, I can see him in the 40s for the next few years.  Barring injuries, it certainly isn't a Brady Anderson case of going from upper teens to 50 and then back down to the teens again.

     

    Toronto (2) and New York (6) are in the top 6, so Davis benefits from playing 18-20 games a year at those parks as well. Fenway is surprisingly stingy, tied with Detroit for 12th at 1.89

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Who wins a Red Sox / A's tiebreaker?

    In response to illinoisredsox's comment:

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    good point but isn't Arlington a homer friendly park too?

     

    last year in Balt he was 16 AB's (so 19 to 16 to 11)........


    at home he is at 10 AB's per HR and the road is 13 - maybe it explains some but not all...


    my prediction is that Davis will eventually get caught for doing something.  Add Miggy to that list too.......

     




     

     

    I always thought Arlington was up there too, but at least this year, it's definitely middle of the pack.  I did use the wrong stat before (looked at park factor instead of HRs/game).  Per ESPN, Arlington yields 2.01 HRs per game, tied for 7th in the AL.  Camden Yards has averaged 2.89 HR's per game, which is 1st in the AL.

     

    As for Davis, you could be right, maybe he is on something.  But I see a 27 year old guy who hit 33 in his first year as a regular last season, who hit 17 in 80 games his rookie year and who hit 21 in 113 games his sophomore year .  Like I said, while 50+ may ultimately represent his career high, I can see him in the 40s for the next few years.  Barring injuries, it certainly isn't a Brady Anderson case of going from upper teens to 50 and then back down to the teens again.

     

    Toronto (2) and New York (6) are in the top 6, so Davis benefits from playing 18-20 games a year at those parks as well. Fenway is surprisingly stingy, tied with Detroit for 12th at 1.89

    [/QUOTE]


    40 is reasonable but 55 tells me that he needs to be looked at more closely

    Brady Anderson got away with it big time - that may be the only guy who coud be proven by looking at the statistical odds.........

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: Who wins a Red Sox / A's tiebreaker?

    Miggy's health is questionable, and I've heard Detroit's relief corps is incomplete, so it may not be the worst thing to be matched up against them right now.  They have their 4 core starters, which still plays big, especially in a shorter best of 5 where there is less potential for weaknesses to be exposed.  

    Whatever the case, in the post-season you're going to have to bring your best and earn it no matter the peceived difficulty of the route taken.

     

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