Re: Why are there no Napoli threads?
posted at 8/9/2013 10:08 PM EDT
In response to notin's comment:
Doesn't anyone see what is going on? He has to be dropped in the lineup, becuse tinkering with success ALWAYS leads to more success.
Too much is being made of Napoli’s strikeouts. Yes, he fans a lot. Is that really any better than grounding out or flying out? Before you answer, consider this.
Napoli has struck out 145 times. 71 of them have been with no one on base. So, almost 50% of the time, there was no chance for any sort of productive out. The 71 K are in 203 plate appearances, or 35% of his plate appearances.
The ultimate productive out would be a sacrifice fly, possible only with a runner on third and less than two out. Napoli has 8 strikeouts in 33 plate appearances in these instances. (Yes, small sample size. But hey, it is what it is.) So a guy who has struck out over 33% of the time on the season strikes out less often (24%) in situations that require contact. And while he has only produced one sacrifice fly in those instances, he does have 27RBI in those circumstances and an OPS of 1.053, including 3 HR and 5 XBH out of 9 hits. He does get the bat on the ball better when the situation calls for it.
With a runner on third and two outs, Napoli struck out 12 times in 30 plate appearances, or 40% of the time. But again, there was no chance for a productive out anyway. In fact, with 2 outs, and men on base, Napoli has struck out 29 times in 91 PA, or 32% of the time. Add his totals with the times no one was on base, and that accounts for almost 70% of his strikeouts coming when there was no chance for a productive out anyway. No sac fly. No moving the runner over.
I know if you put the ball in play, there Is a chance for an error, which should not be ignored. Of course, there is also a chance for a GIDP, which should also not be ignored. Napoli has come up with a runner on first base 157 times this year and struck out 51 times, for 32%. While not good, it also means 32% there was no chance of a GIDP. I would say there would have been a lot more GIDPs in that selection than errors had he put all those balls in play, since the DP is the much more common defensive occurrence. And since Napoli has put the ball on the ground 37% of the time, he might have gotten 13 or so hits in there. But he also would potentially grounded into a DP the other 45 times. ( know no one GIDP’s 45 times in 100+ games, but these are the situations for it. And part of the reason no one does is that hitters strikeout, which I am eliminating to show a point.)
The reason he Ks so much is because he takes a lot of pitches. This gives the added benfit of the BB. I will take a guy who strikes out a lot and walks a lot over a guy who strikes out a lot and does not. But I guess a lot of Sox fans feel that this is not important given their feeling towards Napoli and admiration of Middlebrooks…
Whats up notin? Nap has a big hit tonight, hopefully he can start hitting lefties again. The real question is while Mike and Johnny continue to struggle with lefties is, why Snyder and Holt are still here? Defense?
Bring in Middy and Bogy, Will has all the motivation in the world to prove he deserves his job back and Bogy could be the spark "Ells" gave us in 2007. Lets make a very exciting season even more exciting because they couldn't do much worse.