Why are these guys hitting so well?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Why are these guys hitting so well?

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    In response to slomag's comment:

     

    There aren't any real holes in the lineup, so it's hard to pitch around guys, and everybody works the count well.  OBP is the key.

     



    That sentence pretty much sums it up.  The FO made a conscious effort this offseason to bring in high OBP guys (thank you Bill James).  OBP is the single biggest factor in scoring runs, not home runs, not slugging.  The Sox are 2nd in the league in OBP (.348) behind Detroit and first in wOBA (.344).

     



    Actually, the guys Ben "brought in" were not really known as high OBP guys, at least in the most recent 2-3 years. However, there is more to it thatn just looking at their career or recent OBP.

    Napoli .379 (11-12) 6th best 1Bman OBP out of 63 1Bmen with 300+ PAs

    Drew   .313 (11-12) 25th best SS in OBP out of 54 SSs with 300+ PAs

    Gomes .349 (11-12) 38th best OF'er out of 169 OF'ers.

    Victorino .337 (11-12) 62nd best OF'er out of 169. Not really great.

     

    Victorino had a .340 career OBP when we signed him, but had the 6th best OF OBP vs LHPs from '11-'12.

    Gomes had the 4th best OF OBP vs LHPs from 2011-2012 at .411.

    Drew has a career OBP of .327, which is pretty good for a SS. He once had a .352 OBP (2010).

    Napoli has a career .355 OBP, but had a .414 OBP in 2011 and .374 in 2008.

     

    Carp was not acquired for his OBP.

     

    Our best OBP players this year...

    .466 Iggy  

    .407 Papi

    .398 Pedey

    .372 Nava

    .371 Carp (Not signed for an expected high OBP)

    .356 Ells

    .349 Vict

    .344 Nap

    .326 Salty

    .320 Gomes

    .308 Drew

    .228 Midd

     

    Of the acquired players, all but Carp and Victorino have a worse 2013 OBP than their career OBP or 2011-2012 combined OBP.

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Why are these guys hitting so well?


    I stand by my OP and the belief it's a combination of depth--a lot of guys contributing (and in the case of Middlebrooks, Bradley, and maybe Bogaerts at Pawtucket, waiting to contribute or contribute again)--and chemistry. 

    moonslav's stats point out that the additions have not necessarily hit all that well, but I do think they contributed to overall team psychology, chemistry.  But of course the lion's share of the credit has to go to Farrell for way he has managed all these different personalities and skills.  He has shown respect for veterans while bringing in rookies for just the right amount--Iglesias a lot, Bradley not so much, Webster in the middle. 

    When Middlebrooks went down to AAA, he owned his situation and said he has to play better.  Same for Bailey when he lost the closer job to Uehara.  Gomes has been relegated to part-time, but has embraced the role and contributed.  Nava started part-time but quickly earned his way to full-time.  Carp has been very effective as a part-timer.  Drew kept his SS job despite the brilliance (and hitting) of Iglesias and has been effective--and lately has been hitting a lot better. 

     

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Why are these guys hitting so well?

    Yeah, a lot of guys contributing is a great thing.  Last night was a perfect example.  Drew with a 2-run triple, Gomes with the huge pinch-hit.  Cherington deserves a lot of credit, he seems to have had a good idea what he was doing putting this team together. 

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Why are these guys hitting so well?

    We shouldn't over look the defense and pitching. While Drew and Napoli are not great defenders, they have been surpisingly close to the norm. If they can both raise their OPS, it will help immensely. Victorino has done very well in RF, when healthy, and Ross did a fine job in limited time. Gomes is Gomes.

    While Dempster has not led us to that many wins, he has pitched well and eaten a lot of innings- saving the pen. Lackey, although not a Ben addition, has been fantastic. The big boost on the staff has clearly been Uehara. 2 years of control is great. Having faith in Tazawa was also a big decision.

    It will be  interesting to see what Ben does this deadline. His hands were tied the winter of 2011-2012, and last deadline, we were pretty much out of it. Let's see if he is reactive or proactive or passive.

    I'm hoping he tries hard to improve our team this year, but that any big move should involve making us better at least for 2014, but hopefully beyond. I'd also like to see him free up some roster space by moving from quantity to quality of youth. We will be hitting a roster crunch and rule 5 dilema this winter. Many teams will be facing the same situation then, so they won't be looking to trade 1 player for 2 or 3. Best to try and do it this summer. Some of the guys we are likely to lose would be top 30 prospects on some teams.

    Ben has done a great job building up the farm and lessening our longterm debt. We can now afford a bit of a "splash", but I hope we don't get careless and settle on the best player available, even if it's not a good deal. I have faith in Ben, and he showed with the Dodger trade and unpopular FA signings that he is now his own man. We should give him some time and space and let his work prove itself worthy or otherwise.

    Sox4ever

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Why are these guys hitting so well?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Actually, the guys Ben "brought in" were not really known as high OBP guys, at least in the most recent 2-3 years. However, there is more to it thatn just looking at their career or recent OBP.

     

    Napoli .379 (11-12) 6th best 1Bman OBP out of 63 1Bmen with 300+ PAs

    Drew   .313 (11-12) 25th best SS in OBP out of 54 SSs with 300+ PAs

    Gomes .349 (11-12) 38th best OF'er out of 169 OF'ers.

    Victorino .337 (11-12) 62nd best OF'er out of 169. Not really great.

     

    Victorino had a .340 career OBP when we signed him, but had the 6th best OF OBP vs LHPs from '11-'12.

    Gomes had the 4th best OF OBP vs LHPs from 2011-2012 at .411.

    Drew has a career OBP of .327, which is pretty good for a SS. He once had a .352 OBP (2010).

    Napoli has a career .355 OBP, but had a .414 OBP in 2011 and .374 in 2008.

     

    Carp was not acquired for his OBP.

     

    Our best OBP players this year...

    .466 Iggy  

    .407 Papi

    .398 Pedey

    .372 Nava

    .371 Carp (Not signed for an expected high OBP)

    .356 Ells

    .349 Vict

    .344 Nap

    .326 Salty

    .320 Gomes

    .308 Drew

    .228 Midd

     

    Of the acquired players, all but Carp and Victorino have a worse 2013 OBP than their career OBP or 2011-2012 combined OBP.

     




    Call them high OBP guys or not, improving the team's BB% and OBP was a priority this offseason, IMO.  I'm guessing the coaches have also focused on that with guys like Salty and Iggy.

    Compare the '11-'12 OBP of Napoli, Drew, Victorino, and Gomes to the OBP of the 2012 Red Sox at their respective positions:

    Napoli .379, last year's 1B .325

    Drew .313, last year's SS .272

    Victorino .337, last year's RF .309

    Gomes .349, last year's LF .327

    It's fair enough to say that some of them are not known for being on base machines, but IMO, the FO signed these guys in large part because of the improvement in OBP that they would provide over last year's team.  It's the ability to get on base that leads directly and indirectly to scoring runs.

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from JimfromFlorida. Show JimfromFlorida's posts

    Re: Why are these guys hitting so well?

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    The problem with this theory, is that half the players Ben signed have been inconsistent or consistently bad or hurt. I wouldn't say we are winning because of the signings.

    How can you say they are not winning because of the signings? With out the guys they have they would not be where they are

     

    It would be hard to see us in 1st place without Napoli, Uehara, and Carp, but one could argue we'd be farther ahead had we not signed a couple of these guys as well.

    How could you argue that they are where they are because of what they have not because of what others wanted signed

    Uehara: Fantastic signing that nearly everyone here liked at the time

    Dempster: has done very well, but with bad luck. Many here did not like this signing (including me). With such poor run support, it's hard to say we'd have less wins with someone else, but that's not fair to Dempster.

    Hanrahan: injury cut his season short & did poorly in tiny sample size. (Trade not signing)

    Drew: Better fielding than I expected, but has not met expectations (most were against this signing and a few of us really wanted Iggy from day 1.)

    Victorino: Injured a lot and doing OK when he plays. (I thought he was overpaid and signed for a year too long. I'd say most did not like this signing, but it was close to 50-50.)

    Napoli: has been our RBI man- hard to criticize this signing. He is still way below his reent OPS numbers.

    Gomes: Underperformed, but is heating up some. (I preferred this signing than Cody Ross' massive overpay.)

    Carp: the steal of the winter (softy lambasted this no risk deal: most of us saw it for what it was- a low risk deal with a slight to moderate chance at hitting paydirt.)

     You in now way can say the RS would be better off with out the guys they have. You can not even say they'd be better with some one else as what they are doing elsewhere probably would not be doing here. Many here and many experts were saying they were a bad team and would be lucky to get to 4th place. Yes players have had injuries and some are below what is expected as some are above what is expected. As much as many wanted Iggy not one could have seen what he has done. As for Drew many hated the guy because he is a DREW and said he was fragile. No one looked at his history.

    NO MATTER WHAT PEOPLE THINK IT BOILS DOWN TO THE FACT THE THE FO DID EVRYTHING IN THEIR POWER TO MAKE THIS TEAM GOOD. YES SOME HAVE FAILED BARD, HANRAHAN, BAILEY, MIDDLEBROOKS AND SOME HAVE BEEN MORE UP OR DOWN AT TIMES. HOWEVER NO ONE CAN SAY THAT THIS TEAM WOULD BE BETTER WITH ANY OTHER PLAYERS OTHER THAN THE GUYS WHO ARE PERFORMING RIGHT NOW. ANY SUGGESTION IN THAT REGARDS IS OURE SUPPOSITION.

    [/QUOTE]


     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Why are these guys hitting so well?

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Actually, the guys Ben "brought in" were not really known as high OBP guys, at least in the most recent 2-3 years. However, there is more to it thatn just looking at their career or recent OBP.

     

    Napoli .379 (11-12) 6th best 1Bman OBP out of 63 1Bmen with 300+ PAs

    Drew   .313 (11-12) 25th best SS in OBP out of 54 SSs with 300+ PAs

    Gomes .349 (11-12) 38th best OF'er out of 169 OF'ers.

    Victorino .337 (11-12) 62nd best OF'er out of 169. Not really great.

     

    Victorino had a .340 career OBP when we signed him, but had the 6th best OF OBP vs LHPs from '11-'12.

    Gomes had the 4th best OF OBP vs LHPs from 2011-2012 at .411.

    Drew has a career OBP of .327, which is pretty good for a SS. He once had a .352 OBP (2010).

    Napoli has a career .355 OBP, but had a .414 OBP in 2011 and .374 in 2008.

     

    Carp was not acquired for his OBP.

     

    Our best OBP players this year...

    .466 Iggy  

    .407 Papi

    .398 Pedey

    .372 Nava

    .371 Carp (Not signed for an expected high OBP)

    .356 Ells

    .349 Vict

    .344 Nap

    .326 Salty

    .320 Gomes

    .308 Drew

    .228 Midd

     

    Of the acquired players, all but Carp and Victorino have a worse 2013 OBP than their career OBP or 2011-2012 combined OBP.

     

     




    Call them high OBP guys or not, improving the team's BB% and OBP was a priority this offseason, IMO.  I'm guessing the coaches have also focused on that with guys like Salty and Iggy.

     

    Compare the '11-'12 OBP of Napoli, Drew, Victorino, and Gomes to the OBP of the 2012 Red Sox at their respective positions:

    Napoli .379, last year's 1B .325

    Drew .313, last year's SS .272

    Victorino .337, last year's RF .309

    Gomes .349, last year's LF .327

    It's fair enough to say that some of them are not known for being on base machines, but IMO, the FO signed these guys in large part because of the improvement in OBP that they would provide over last year's team.  It's the ability to get on base that leads directly and indirectly to scoring runs.

     



    I think OBP has always been a big part of Sox acquisitions, but I just didn't see the guys they obtained this past winter as being known for OBP. Gomes and Victorino are vs LHPs, but Shane has had a horrible OBP vs RHPs and was expected to be our FT'er. I think he was signed more for defense as CF or RF'er, speed, attitude and what he bats vs lefties (our weakness). Naps was certainly an improvement over last year's 1Bmen, and has the ability to get on base at over .375. Drew and Ross may be OK at their positions, but are not know as OBP guys.

    I do think they have worked with Iggy and others on improving OBP skills, and keeping Nava on the 25 man roster was certainly OBP related.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Why are these guys hitting so well?

    The problem with this theory, is that half the players Ben signed have been inconsistent or consistently bad or hurt. I wouldn't say we are winning because of the signings.

    How can you say they are not winning because of the signings? With out the guys they have they would not be where they are

    We are not in 1st place because of Ross, Gomes or Drew. If we had played Iggy all year, we MIGHT be better off. 

    The Victorino signing has helped, but his injuries have not. Plus, it's not like if we didn't sign these 4 guys, we wouldn't have signed anyone else.

    Napoli has been a huge plus.

     

    It would be hard to see us in 1st place without Napoli, Uehara, and Carp, but one could argue we'd be farther ahead had we not signed a couple of these guys as well.

    How could you argue that they are where they are because of what they have not because of what others wanted signed

    I worded that wrong; I meant Ross, Gomes, Victorino and Dempster (not the 3 I listed). It's hard to see where anyone else we signed might have made us lose more than we have.

    Uehara and Naps are big pluses. The others are sketchy at best. (Dempster has done well, but if we signed anyone else, and he got the same run support, we'd probably have the same amount of wins as we do now.)

     

    Uehara: Fantastic signing that nearly everyone here liked at the time

    Dempster: has done very well, but with bad luck. Many here did not like this signing (including me). With such poor run support, it's hard to say we'd have less wins with someone else, but that's not fair to Dempster.

    Hanrahan: injury cut his season short & did poorly in tiny sample size. (Trade not signing)

    Drew: Better fielding than I expected, but has not met expectations (most were against this signing and a few of us really wanted Iggy from day 1.)

    Victorino: Injured a lot and doing OK when he plays. (I thought he was overpaid and signed for a year too long. I'd say most did not like this signing, but it was close to 50-50.)

    Napoli: has been our RBI man- hard to criticize this signing. He is still way below his reent OPS numbers.

    Gomes: Underperformed, but is heating up some. (I preferred this signing than Cody Ross' massive overpay.)

    Carp: the steal of the winter (softy lambasted this no risk deal: most of us saw it for what it was- a low risk deal with a slight to moderate chance at hitting paydirt.)

     You in now way can say the RS would be better off with out the guys they have. You can not even say they'd be better with some one else as what they are doing elsewhere probably would not be doing here. Many here and many experts were saying they were a bad team and would be lucky to get to 4th place. Yes players have had injuries and some are below what is expected as some are above what is expected. As much as many wanted Iggy not one could have seen what he has done. As for Drew many hated the guy because he is a DREW and said he was fragile. No one looked at his history.

    Please, many of us disected his history ad nauseum.  The fact is, this team is being mostly led by non-signess, except for Napoli and Uehara. Thye Carp trade was big. The Hanrahan trade not.

     

    NO MATTER WHAT PEOPLE THINK IT BOILS DOWN TO THE FACT THE THE FO DID EVRYTHING IN THEIR POWER TO MAKE THIS TEAM GOOD. YES SOME HAVE FAILED BARD, HANRAHAN, BAILEY, MIDDLEBROOKS AND SOME HAVE BEEN MORE UP OR DOWN AT TIMES. HOWEVER NO ONE CAN SAY THAT THIS TEAM WOULD BE BETTER WITH ANY OTHER PLAYERS OTHER THAN THE GUYS WHO ARE PERFORMING RIGHT NOW. ANY SUGGESTION IN THAT REGARDS IS OURE SUPPOSITION.

    I never even implied that Ben did not do everything he thought he could do to make this team better, in fact, I thought he concentrated too much on the here and now after the Dodger trade and not enough on the future. I have continually said he deserves a chance to prove himself. 

    I can throw right back at you that no one can say we wouldn't be better off had Ben not signed SOME of the FAs he did, and instead signed others. There is no way of knowing either way, but I think I could easily argue that we might be better off had...

    1) We played Iggy at SS all year long and used the Drew money elsewhere.

    2) Signed another catcher besides Ross (hard to blame Ben for an injury, but still...)

    3) Signed a healthier RF'er than Victorino.

    4) Not signed Gomes and used the Drew and Gomes money to sign someone else.

    5) The Hanrahan trade was not helpful, but may not hurt if none of the kids do well.

     

    I love the Napoli & Uehara signings and the Carp deal. The Dempster signing looks good, but he has had hard luck- no blame to assign anywhere there.

    To me, that shows 4 sketchy signings and 3 good ones. One good trade- one not helpful. 

    We spent a ton of money on this year's FAs. Oveerall, they have helped us be better, but my position is that they have not been the driving force behind our wins. I know, I know- it's all about Chemistry, right?

    Sox4ever

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Why are these guys hitting so well?

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

    There was never a reason to think they wouldn't hit.  I think some of the posters tend to think that everyone else has a juggernaut, when everyone else has holes.  We have no position below .705.  Detroit, for all the hitting that Miggy and Fielder supply, still have a .609 at catcher and .654 at DH.

     



    "Hit" covers a pretty wide definitional swath.  I'm say nobody, especially not you, was saying before this season,  "these guys are going to lead MLB in runs scored and OPS at the mid-point mark.  I mean, look at the terrific lineup."  This lineup, including all the guys who have gone in and out of it, has vastly exceeded any reasonable expectations.  At the beginning of the season, a lot of guys wondered if Ortiz was even going to play. 

     



    I said they probably had the best offense in the league and should finish in the top-3 in scoring.  I usually don't care to get too exact because of variability.  Take the rough averages over the past 3 years.

    • Salty   .737
    • Napoli  .875
    • Pedey  .837
    • Drew   .746
    • WMB   .835
    • Gomes .774
    • Ells      .824
    • Vic      .766
    • Papi     .950
    • Bench  .700

    The average is .804.  The NYY led the league in 2012 with a .790, but lost Swisher and Martin.  Texas was 2nd with .780, but lost hamilton.  LAA was 3rd with .764, picked up Hamilton to replace Hunter.

    You can play around at the margins, but the RS still have ABOUT the top OPS.  You can also go to FG for their pre-season projections, and wind up with similar results.  The offense is actually pretty easy to predict, barring injuries.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from JimfromFlorida. Show JimfromFlorida's posts

    Re: Why are these guys hitting so well?

     

    I can throw right back at you that no one can say we wouldn't be better off had Ben not signed SOME of the FAs he did, and instead signed others. There is no way of knowing either way, but I think I could easily argue that we might be better off had...

    YOU CAN NOT SAY WE'D BE BETTER OFF. YOU CAN SAY THEY HAVE DONE DAMN GOOD. YOU CAN NOT SAY THEY'D BE BETTER OFF THAT STATEMENT OR THEORY WOULD BE PURE SUPPOSITION BASED UPON NO FACTUAL EVIDENCE

     

     

     

    1) We played Iggy at SS all year long and used the Drew money elsewhere.

    WOULD IGGY HAVE PERFORMED AS WELL??? WE DO NOT KNOW BUT WE DO KNOW HE IS DOING GREAT UNDER CURRENT CIRCUMSTANCES.

    MAYBE DREW'S MONEY COULD HAVE BEEN USED SOME WHERE ELSE BUT AGAIN IT IS PURE SUPPOSITION FOR A THEORY.

     

    2) Signed another catcher besides Ross (hard to blame Ben for an injury, but still...)

    WITH OUT THE CONCUSION YOU WOULD NOT EVEN BE SAYING THIS AND ROSS HAS BEEN A GOOD ADDITION FOR THE TEAM

     

    3) Signed a healthier RF'er than Victorino.

     

    A HEALTHIER PLAYER DOES NOT MEAN ANY BETTER STATS OR PLAY OR MORE WINS BY ANYY STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION.

     

    4) Not signed Gomes and used the Drew and Gomes money to sign someone else.

    BOTH DREW AND GOMES HAVE WON GAMES FOR THE SOX AND BOTH HAVE HAD BAD GAMES BUT SIGNING OTHERS DOES NOT EQUATE TO A BETTER TEAM OR PLAYERS FOR THIS TEAM

     

     

    5) The Hanrahan trade was not helpful, but may not hurt if none of the kids do well.

    IT HAS NOT BEEN HELPFUL HOWEVER HIS INJURY HAS ALLOWED US TO SEE WHAT OTHERS CAN AND CAN NOT DUE(BAILEY).

     

     

     WHAT I'M SAYING IS THAT ANY CHANGES TO THE MOVES BY THE RS THIS PAST OFF YEAR IS WHAT MADE THIS TEAM WHAT IT IS AND WHAT IT IS ACCOMPLISHING.

    RS FANS HAVE THIS INATE ABILITY TO BELIEVE IF THEY SIGNED OTHER SUPPOSEDLY "BETTER" PLAYERS THAT THE TEAM WOULD BE BETTER. THAT IS A FALLACY.

    MAY I JUST GO BACK TO THE SIGNINGS OF THE RECENT PAST OF SOME VERY GOOD PLAYERS WHO DID NOT IMPROVE THE TEAM LIKE THE SIGNINGS OF THIS PAST YEAR

     A BIRD IN HAND (CURRENT ROSTER) IS BETTER THAN TWO IN THE BUSH (NOT SIGNING OR TRADING FOR PLAYERS FANS THINK WOULD MAKE THE TEAM BETTER).

    SAYING SIGNING ANOTHER PLAYER AND THAT THEY'D BE BETTER IS LIKE PISSING IN ONE HAND AND PUTTING ALL YOUR DREAMS IN ANOTHER AND SEEING WHICH ONE FILLS UP FIRST.

     

    Love the Red Sox and enjoy the ride every year

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Why are these guys hitting so well?

    I can throw right back at you that no one can say we wouldn't be better off had Ben not signed SOME of the FAs he did, and instead signed others. There is no way of knowing either way, but I think I could easily argue that we might be better off had...

    YOU CAN NOT SAY WE'D BE BETTER OFF. YOU CAN SAY THEY HAVE DONE DAMN GOOD. YOU CAN NOT SAY THEY'D BE BETTER OFF THAT STATEMENT OR THEORY WOULD BE PURE SUPPOSITION BASED UPON NO FACTUAL EVIDENCE

     If you read what I said before, I stated "there is no way of knowing either way". However, I do not think it is a stretch to think we'd have been better had Iggy played all year, instead of Drew.

     

     

    1) We played Iggy at SS all year long and used the Drew money elsewhere.

    WOULD IGGY HAVE PERFORMED AS WELL??? WE DO NOT KNOW BUT WE DO KNOW HE IS DOING GREAT UNDER CURRENT CIRCUMSTANCES.

    MAYBE DREW'S MONEY COULD HAVE BEEN USED SOME WHERE ELSE BUT AGAIN IT IS PURE SUPPOSITION FOR A THEORY.

    Yes, of course it is supposition, but it's not hard to imagine spending $9.5M on someone better than what Drew has given us. Like I said, we have no way of knowing. You keep acting like I'm saying we definitely would be better without Drew, Gomes, Ross and Hanrahan.

     

    2) Signed another catcher besides Ross (hard to blame Ben for an injury, but still...)

    WITH OUT THE CONCUSION YOU WOULD NOT EVEN BE SAYING THIS AND ROSS HAS BEEN A GOOD ADDITION FOR THE TEAM

     You are totally misreading my points. I liked the Ross signing. I was responding to the point that Ben's signings have helped us or been the main reason we turned things around. I am using hindsight to judge if all, most or some players have helped, hurt, or done soemwhere inbetween. THERE IS NO WAY TO KNOW IF SOME OTHER PLAYER WOULD HAVE DONE BETTER. All we know right now, is how the players he got have done in the first half of 2013. It's still an open book.

     

    3) Signed a healthier RF'er than Victorino.

     

    A HEALTHIER PLAYER DOES NOT MEAN ANY BETTER STATS OR PLAY OR MORE WINS BY ANYY STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION.

    It does not mean he'd do worse either. Again, we will never know. My point is that SV has not helped us all that much. He's doing well now, and has the second half to make him a big plus.

     

     

    4) Not signed Gomes and used the Drew and Gomes money to sign someone else.

    BOTH DREW AND GOMES HAVE WON GAMES FOR THE SOX AND BOTH HAVE HAD BAD GAMES BUT SIGNING OTHERS DOES NOT EQUATE TO A BETTER TEAM OR PLAYERS FOR THIS TEAM

    I have to disagree here. While these two have made some contributions, I think the odds are better the $19.5M could have been spent better. Sure, it could have been spent on someone who got hurt or did worse than these two, but I'd put my money on us doing better than we have thus far with Iggy at SS all year and $19.5M spent elsewhere. NO way of knowing, but...

     

     

    5) The Hanrahan trade was not helpful, but may not hurt if none of the kids do well.

    IT HAS NOT BEEN HELPFUL HOWEVER HIS INJURY HAS ALLOWED US TO SEE WHAT OTHERS CAN AND CAN NOT DUE(BAILEY).

    Seriously? You are going down this road? 

     

     

     WHAT I'M SAYING IS THAT ANY CHANGES TO THE MOVES BY THE RS THIS PAST OFF YEAR IS WHAT MADE THIS TEAM WHAT IT IS AND WHAT IT IS ACCOMPLISHING.

    RS FANS HAVE THIS INATE ABILITY TO BELIEVE IF THEY SIGNED OTHER SUPPOSEDLY "BETTER" PLAYERS THAT THE TEAM WOULD BE BETTER. THAT IS A FALLACY.

    NO, it's not a fallacy. You are doing the same thing they are doing, but in reverse. The truth is, we have no way of knowing which side is right. One cannot assume that if a guy like Justin Upton, for example, is doing well with the Braves, he'd do thatw ell here in Boston, but we can't assume he'd bomb either.

    Drew has not done what his supporters were projecting offensively. His defense has been better than I expected, but is still worse than Iggy.

    Gomes hasn't come close to what was expected from him vs LHPs. He's coming around, but as of right now, he has not been a plus.

    Hanrahan may not of cost us anything, if the prospects all bomb, but he lost some games for us. It's very hard to imagine anyone else taking his place would have done worse.

    MAY I JUST GO BACK TO THE SIGNINGS OF THE RECENT PAST OF SOME VERY GOOD PLAYERS

    WHO DID NOT IMPROVE THE TEAM LIKE THE SIGNINGS OF THIS PAST YEAR.

    Oh, it's OK for you to assume this about past years. Last year Cody Ross and Shoppach helped us more than they hurt.

     A BIRD IN HAND (CURRENT ROSTER) IS BETTER THAN TWO IN THE BUSH (NOT SIGNING OR TRADING FOR PLAYERS FANS THINK WOULD MAKE THE TEAM BETTER).

    An assumption no different than others saying the opposite.

     

    SAYING SIGNING ANOTHER PLAYER AND THAT THEY'D BE BETTER IS LIKE PISSING IN ONE HAND AND PUTTING ALL YOUR DREAMS IN ANOTHER AND SEEING WHICH ONE FILLS UP FIRST.

    Saying we could have done no better than what we have done, is just like pissing on an electric fence.

    Sox4ever

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Why are these guys hitting so well?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    Napoli has been a huge plus.

     

    2013 OPS

    Napoli       .786

    Scutaro    .789

    Lowrie      .802

    Gardner    .804

    Nava         .813

     

     




     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from youkillus. Show youkillus's posts

    Re: Why are these guys hitting so well?

     Good job Moon, Jim is out to lunch on this supposition thing. Here's how it works, a player will duplicate his minor league production in the majors to a strong degree. A player will produce at his previous levels from year to year. Injuries will impact a player's productivity and are hard to predict, yet can be guestimated based on how reckless thay tend to play. Bryce Harper comes to mind. Players will peak offensively from ages 27-31. These are all givens. Let's look at the roster now;

    C Salty, age 28 in his prime, having one of his best seasons, no surprise, and he's been durable.

    1B Napoli, age 31.5, leaving his prime, expect him to produce less than his history. True.

    2B Pedey, age 29, in his prime, typical Pedroia production, though his play will lead to injury. True.

    SS Drew age 30, Prime, solid defense, hitting is lagging, not likely to be injured. True.

    3B Iggy, 23 years old, unknown quantity as he has no track record and is 5 years from his prime.

    LF Nava, 30, in his prime, having best year of hie career, easily predicted.

    CF Ells 29, in his prime, producing within his history, likely to be injured stealing bases.

    RF Victorino 32, past his prime, producing right to his history and likely to be injured due to agressive style.

    DH, Ortiz, 37, past his prime, and likey to be injured (19 games missed)

     Using the components of age, history and style, I am not surprised, and no one else should be either, take any hypothetical addition to the team and run him through these filters and see how they would play out in Boston.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Why are these guys hitting so well?

    In response to tom-uk's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    Napoli has been a huge plus.

     

    2013 OPS

    Napoli       .786

    Scutaro    .789

    Lowrie      .802

    Gardner    .804

    Nava         .813

     

     






    How many RBIs do those guys have?

    Napoli has been a huge plus to this team, IMO, but if you want to call him just a marginal plus, I won't argue.

    Yes, I was expecting a better OPS, especially the OBP part, but that may come this second half.

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Why are these guys hitting so well?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to tom-uk's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Napoli has been a huge plus.

     

    2013 OPS

    Napoli       .786

    Scutaro    .789

    Lowrie      .802

    Gardner    .804

    Nava         .813

     

     




     



    How many RBIs do those guys have?

     

    Napoli has been a huge plus to this team, IMO, but if you want to call him just a marginal plus, I won't argue.

    Yes, I was expecting a better OPS, especially the OBP part, but that may come this second half.

     



    Not with his K/W.  If he keeps going at 3/1+, he'll be lucky to stay at .785.  BB has a way of playing catchup.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Why are these guys hitting so well?

    In response to youkillus' comment:

     Good job Moon, Jim is out to lunch on this supposition thing. Here's how it works, a player will duplicate his minor league production in the majors to a strong degree. A player will produce at his previous levels from year to year. Injuries will impact a player's productivity and are hard to predict, yet can be guestimated based on how reckless thay tend to play. Bryce Harper comes to mind. Players will peak offensively from ages 27-31. These are all givens. Let's look at the roster now;

    DH, Ortiz, 37, past his prime, and likey to be injured (19 games missed)



    Hold on a second there Youk.  You omitted the fact that well-past-prime Ortiz has been above his career averages in his last 3 seasons and therefore doesn't match one of your 'givens'. 

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from youkillus. Show youkillus's posts

    Re: Why are these guys hitting so well?

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to youkillus' comment:

     

     Good job Moon, Jim is out to lunch on this supposition thing. Here's how it works, a player will duplicate his minor league production in the majors to a strong degree. A player will produce at his previous levels from year to year. Injuries will impact a player's productivity and are hard to predict, yet can be guestimated based on how reckless thay tend to play. Bryce Harper comes to mind. Players will peak offensively from ages 27-31. These are all givens. Let's look at the roster now;

    DH, Ortiz, 37, past his prime, and likey to be injured (19 games missed)

     



    Hold on a second there Youk.  You omitted the fact that well-past-prime Ortiz has been above his career averages in his last 3 seasons and therefore doesn't match one of your 'givens'. 

     




    Ortiz is the exception that proves the rule. There are few 37 yr olds doing what he has done, and the injury bug can bite anytime.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Why are these guys hitting so well?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    How many RBIs do those guys have?

     2013 OPS   ,     AB and OPS w/ RISP

    Napoli       .786      98  .790     (Bases loaded 12 AB 20 RBI)

    Scutaro    .789      46   .737

    Lowrie      .802      57    .820

    Gardner    .804    44   .870

    Nava         .813    86   .887

     

     



     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Why are these guys hitting so well?

    In response to youkillus' comment:

     Good job Moon, Jim is out to lunch on this supposition thing. Here's how it works, a player will duplicate his minor league production in the majors to a strong degree. A player will produce at his previous levels from year to year. Injuries will impact a player's productivity and are hard to predict, yet can be guestimated based on how reckless thay tend to play. Bryce Harper comes to mind. Players will peak offensively from ages 27-31. These are all givens. Let's look at the roster now;

    C Salty, age 28 in his prime, having one of his best seasons, no surprise, and he's been durable.

    1B Napoli, age 31.5, leaving his prime, expect him to produce less than his history. True.

    2B Pedey, age 29, in his prime, typical Pedroia production, though his play will lead to injury. True.

    SS Drew age 30, Prime, solid defense, hitting is lagging, not likely to be injured. True.

    3B Iggy, 23 years old, unknown quantity as he has no track record and is 5 years from his prime.

    LF Nava, 30, in his prime, having best year of hie career, easily predicted.

    CF Ells 29, in his prime, producing within his history, likely to be injured stealing bases.

    RF Victorino 32, past his prime, producing right to his history and likely to be injured due to agressive style.

    DH, Ortiz, 37, past his prime, and likey to be injured (19 games missed)

     Using the components of age, history and style, I am not surprised, and no one else should be either, take any hypothetical addition to the team and run him through these filters and see how they would play out in Boston.



    A fair review, but Iggy has not followed the rule you mentioned about following his history in the minors (offensively).

    Of course there is no way of knowing for sure which players will wilt under the pressure of playing in Boston and those who will not. A player that is doing well with one team this year, may have done better or worse had they been on our team (facing different pitchers, different parks and defenses, and other factors, including injury).

    My point was that if you look at why this team is doing so well, most of the players making the most contributions to our wins, are not the free agents Ben signed. This is not meant to be a knock on Ben, but some are taking it that way and going overboard to prove otherwise.

    Here is a breakdown of Ben's big decisions this past winter- not based on how the signing looked at the time, and what our perceived needs were, but how well they have performed so far this year and at what cost. Also, injuries are not foreseen, but they are still part of the judgement of has the signing been an overall plus or minus.

    (Note: This is based on just first half performances: the jury is still out on most of these choices.)

    Papi: I have not counted this as a free agent signing, but it should be included as a decision made by Ben. Many here wanted us to let Papi walk and become more flexible, young and have money to spend on other positions. Papi's age and chances of getting injured are big factors, but so far, even with the missed 19 games, I'd have to say the choice to sign Papi has been a plus.

    Victorino: The 3 year deal was way too much in my opinion (from day 1). I get the fact that $13M is about the going rate for FAs of his skillset, but I still think it was overpay. The fact that 3 OF'ers on our team have better OPS than Shane right now, does not make this look like a good deal, even for just one year. Now, and OF of Carp in LF, Ells in CF, and Nava in RF is not as good defensively or on the basepaths as with Shane in RF, but I just cannot find anyway to count the SV signing as a plus so far. His .752 OPS is about what was expected, since his career OPS was about .771 before we signed him, and he is aging.  The injuries have been harmful, especially on team defense. Other options out there were: Bourn $48M/4 (lose draft pick), M Cabrera $16M/2, Hamilton $125M/5, T Hunter $26M/2, R Johns on $1.75M/1, Ludwick $15M/2, Pagan $40M/4, C Ross ($26M/3), Schierholtz $2.25M/1, BJ Upton $75M/5, or a trade for a player like J Upton. Some of these guys would clearly have been worse coices- some better. The point is Victorino has not really been a plus, especially if you take into consideration that his $13M is about 1/12th of our payroll budget. I have to say: net minus.

    Dempster: This is hard one to rate, but he has pitched well enough to lead us to many more wins than we have gotten in his starts. He's second on the team in IP at 95.1. One could argue that we could have spent the money elsewhere and got a cheaper pitcher that could have led us to a 7-9 record in his starts, but that really isn't fair to Ryan or Ben. It's hard to say that Ryan has been a net plus with a 7-9 record in his starts, but I'm giving that signing a plus.

    Drew: $9.5M was a big overpay. As everyone knows by now, I have been for Iggy as out FT starting SS since ST of 2012. It's hard to imagine Iggy playing wire to wire the first half of this year, not having better numbers than Drew both on offense and on defense. Now, the Middlebrooks situation has changed the equation somewhat, along with Ciriaco's horrible play at 3B. This has allowed Iggy to play 3B, excellently I might add, and Drew to play instead of Middlebrooks (esp vs RHPs). This has improved Drew's worth to the Sox, but only because his OPS is better than Middlebrooks and Iggy's defense at 3B is better than Middlebrooks as well. Still, to me, this signing has been an easy call: minus.

    Napoli: Hard to guage his pay this year. He will earn $5M, but could make $13M if he is on the active roster for 165 days (basically, he gets a 15 day DL and no more). If he does not meet the 165 day requirement, he can also earn $6M for PA bonuses starting at 300 and $2M bonuses starting at 30 days on the active roster. He's just about at $2M in bonuses already, so even if he gets hurt and misses the rest of the season, he has earned about $7M. His .786 OPS is not bad, but below what most of us expected from a healthy Naps. However, his 54 RBIs, many in clutch situations and better than expected fielding at 1B has made this signing an overall plus.

    Gomes: Although he is heating up, he clearly has been a disappointment with his .694 OPS. Obvious overall minus.

    Ross: Injuries and a .674 OPS has tainted his good start to 2013. He did well with the pitchers, but I have to say: net minus.

    Uehara: A fantastic signing that nearly everyone on the board liked at the time. Clearly a net plus.

    Hanrahan: Hard to know if this trade will turn out to be a big bust, until we know how the prospects work out with Pittsburgh. We do know Melancon has done well (39 IP 0.92 ERA 0.864 WHIP) , but we don't know if he would have done well had he stayed here. However, it's hard to imagine even a replacement level player doing worse than Hanrahan. Clearly a minus.

    If you count Papi, the numbers record is 4-5. Without Papi, it is 3-5. However, some of these decisions hold more weight than others, so I'll leave it up to you guys to determine if all of the combined has been a net plus or minus.

    I'd say it's pretty close. Certainly the players we have signed have helped us win some games. I'd say we probably won more games with these guys than replacement type players, but for all the money we spent, I think we could have done better. Again, this is based on just what we have gotten in a half a season and totally on a hindsight criteria, which may not seem fair to some.

     

    To me, the most valuable Red Sox players, so far this season, have been as listed below:

     

    Most valuable:

    Buch, Papi, Nava, Lackey, Uehara, Iggy, Salty, Pedroia, Carp, Tazawa

     

    Valuable:

    Napoli, Ellsbury, Dempster, Doubront, Miller, Breslow, Wilson

     

    Even:

    Aceves

     

    Net Minus at cost (Could have done better with most other reasonable other choices) or by poor performance or both: 

    Drew, Middlebrooks, Victorino, Gomes, Bailey, Hanrahan, Ross, Lester, Morales, Mortensen, Webster, Ciriaco, Bradley

     

     

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Why are these guys hitting so well?

    In response to tom-uk's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    How many RBIs do those guys have?

     2013 OPS   ,     AB and OPS w/ RISP

    Napoli       .786      98  .790     (Bases loaded 12 AB 20 RBI)

    Scutaro    .789      46   .737

    Lowrie      .802      57    .820

    Gardner    .804    44   .870

    Nava         .813    86   .887

     

     





    Why are you choosing these guys?

    We needed a 1Bman, and none of them play 1B. Yes, Loney or Overbay were cheaper and have done pretty well so far, but would you really prefer either of those players over Napoli for the second half of 2013?

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Why are these guys hitting so well?

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

     

    The Sox lead MLB in runs and OPS, but they have just one really good bat, Ortiz's, who opposing managers don't mind walking intentionally or even semi-intentionally. 

    And they don't have even one really good righty bat to take advantage of the green monster and generally have problems hitting against lefty starters.  In fact, there have been several threads saying the Sox badly need one good righty bat.  Pedroia, Iglesias, and Napoli are actually pretty good, but the first two don't hit many dingers, and Napoli's homer output is tapering off. 

    So why all those runs scored and the high OPS?  My version is it's combination of depth--not just in the everyday lineup, but in guys who go in and out of the lineup and up and down from Pawtucket--and the success of the lefty bats in using the green monster.  And some of the lefty success, I contend, is the result of AGon setting the example while he was here, which Ortiz followed and has had great success doing so, and which other guys like Carp, Drew, Ellsbury, Victorino, and Nava (but not Salty) are now also doing.  The thing about the green monster is it just might be a better offensive weapon for a lefty hitter than a righty one because it can yield a lot of doubles and singles on balls that would otherwise be caught.   In other words, the Sox basically have a lefty-heavy lineup which does not seem to miss that big righty bat because they are all, except for Salty, hitting to all fields effectively. 

    As for the depth thing, I consider it signficant that so many guys in the lineup, including the usual #9 hitter Iglesias, can start a rally or drive in a key run.  On top of that, utility guys like Carp and Gomes have made contributions.  Plus Middlebrooks, the guy currently playing workup in Pawtucket, might yet turn into that big righty bat he seemed to be last year.  Or maybe Bogaerts, who just moved up to AAA.  If an outfielder goes on the DL, Bradley, another lefty bat, will no doubt return.  Napoli's dingers are less frequent, but he is still driving runs in, especially after IBB's to Ortiz.  Plus, if a righty starter is especially tough, Farrell who put Nava or Carp at 1B and the other one in the outfield. 

    And don't forget the chemistry thing.  The infamous Bailey had 8 saves in 12 save opportunities.  But the Sox only lost one of those four games in which Bailey blew the save.  They actually won three of them because these guys are very good at picking each other up. 

    Recently against the Rays Bailey blew a two run lead in the 10th, but the team came off the field pumped up and enthusiastic because the situation had been much worst than those two runs scored.  The Rays actually had the bases loaded with nobody out and the score already tied in the bottom of the 10th with Longoria coming to the plate.   With the infield in, Longoria hit a one hopper to Middlebrooks, who threw home to Salty, who then made a great throw to 1B to get a double play.  The next batter drag bunted to Pedroia who charged in and threw him out at 1B.  The Sox scored 2 in the 14th to win it. 

     



    I give our offense a lot of credit considering our present pitching. 

     

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from JimfromFlorida. Show JimfromFlorida's posts

    Re: Why are these guys hitting so well?

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to youkillus' comment:

     

     Good job Moon, Jim is out to lunch on this supposition thing. Here's how it works, a player will duplicate his minor league production in the majors to a strong degree. A player will produce at his previous levels from year to year. Injuries will impact a player's productivity and are hard to predict, yet can be guestimated based on how reckless thay tend to play. Bryce Harper comes to mind. Players will peak offensively from ages 27-31. These are all givens. Let's look at the roster now;

    DH, Ortiz, 37, past his prime, and likey to be injured (19 games missed)

     



    Hold on a second there Youk.  You omitted the fact that well-past-prime Ortiz has been above his career averages in his last seasons and therefore doesn't match one of your 'givens'. 


    I am not out to lunch I have a different view

    I do not believe in suppositions like signing or trading for another player automatically allows you to say the team would be better...and that is what was said.

    I do not believe having Iggy play SS all year would have had the same results we are seeing now. Based upon his numbers he should be closer to 200 not over 400


    BTW YOUK They are PROBABILITIES not GIVENS big difference.

    I still say that saying,   signing or trading for anyone else they could have does NOT mean the team would be better.
    You can say that a player could make a positive impaict based upon his career but you can not say they'd be better.

    What is happening ---is fact.....A theory based upon a different trade or signing for a supposed better player is not fact but a probability.

    If they signed another player all circumstances surrounding that signing or trade change every thing about the team. The team is a puzzle change a piece and the whole puzzle changes.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Why are these guys hitting so well?

    You really don't think Iggy would have outperformed Drew in the games he was in AAA or on the bench?

    Yes, we have no way of knowing, but what does your gut say?

    Is there any move Ben made that you can find even the tiniest sliver of criticism?

    Sox4ever

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from JimfromFlorida. Show JimfromFlorida's posts

    Re: Why are these guys hitting so well?


    There are things I have not thought were smart moves. Some I was wrong some I was more right.

    How ever I will never make a statement of fact based upon suppositions or probability.

    Nor will I beat a dead horse like many here do when they think they had a better answer or what the RS did 6 months ago is not working now.

    I go by the current state not what I think could have been. The past is the past as BB says it is what it is.

    BTW I do not think Iggy would have been better than Drew over that time based upon his numbers of PROBABILITY at the time he was sent down. However Based upon what he has done anyone and every one can say he would have been.

    BUT IT DOES NOT MEAN A BETTER TEAM OR RECORD.

     

     

     

    Love the Red Sox and enjoy the ride every year

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Why are these guys hitting so well?

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Actually, the guys Ben "brought in" were not really known as high OBP guys, at least in the most recent 2-3 years. However, there is more to it thatn just looking at their career or recent OBP.

     

    Napoli .379 (11-12) 6th best 1Bman OBP out of 63 1Bmen with 300+ PAs

    Drew   .313 (11-12) 25th best SS in OBP out of 54 SSs with 300+ PAs

    Gomes .349 (11-12) 38th best OF'er out of 169 OF'ers.

    Victorino .337 (11-12) 62nd best OF'er out of 169. Not really great.

     

    Victorino had a .340 career OBP when we signed him, but had the 6th best OF OBP vs LHPs from '11-'12.

    Gomes had the 4th best OF OBP vs LHPs from 2011-2012 at .411.

    Drew has a career OBP of .327, which is pretty good for a SS. He once had a .352 OBP (2010).

    Napoli has a career .355 OBP, but had a .414 OBP in 2011 and .374 in 2008.

     

    Carp was not acquired for his OBP.

     

    Our best OBP players this year...

    .466 Iggy  

    .407 Papi

    .398 Pedey

    .372 Nava

    .371 Carp (Not signed for an expected high OBP)

    .356 Ells

    .349 Vict

    .344 Nap

    .326 Salty

    .320 Gomes

    .308 Drew

    .228 Midd

     

    Of the acquired players, all but Carp and Victorino have a worse 2013 OBP than their career OBP or 2011-2012 combined OBP.

     

     




    Call them high OBP guys or not, improving the team's BB% and OBP was a priority this offseason, IMO.  I'm guessing the coaches have also focused on that with guys like Salty and Iggy.

     

    Compare the '11-'12 OBP of Napoli, Drew, Victorino, and Gomes to the OBP of the 2012 Red Sox at their respective positions:

    Napoli .379, last year's 1B .325

    Drew .313, last year's SS .272

    Victorino .337, last year's RF .309

    Gomes .349, last year's LF .327

    It's fair enough to say that some of them are not known for being on base machines, but IMO, the FO signed these guys in large part because of the improvement in OBP that they would provide over last year's team.  It's the ability to get on base that leads directly and indirectly to scoring runs.

     



    Great post - I was going to start a discussion on this because from what i can see, these signings aren't all that impressive (certainly not the reason for the great record) It is all about the decent starting pitching (Dempster was a good pick up) but Ben's free agent success is overexaggerated. What i think can be said is that the culture/climate of the team has improved trendedously and in that new environment, all the players are thriving - particularly veterans who had to deal with 2011/2012 chaos. This is his greatest contribution to 2013.

     
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