Why Does Everyone Think Hanrahan is Great? Didn't we hear the same thing with Bailey last winter?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Alibiike. Show Alibiike's posts

    Re: Why Does Everyone Think Hanrahan is Great? Didn't we hear the same thing with Bailey last winter?

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Alibiike's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    You seem to forget that the best BP in the majors doesn't mean a thing with a mediocre rotation, which is what we have.

    [/QUOTE]


    Well that doesn't make a bit of sense. 

    The Sox have done a tremendous job of building the bullpen this offseason.  And yes, shortening games for the starters will help win ball games.

     

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    +3

    It was a silly post to even respond to in the first place.

    1-We have an above-average rotation.

    2-Even if it was only a mediocre rotation, a team with a average ERA, great BP and great hitting will still win a lot of games.  

    Some posters actually don't understand this concept, amazingly enough, but if you have an average rotation, average BP, and average offense, you win 81 games.  If you above-average in one cat, you win more than 81, and if you are above-average in two, you win even more.

    Past that, or perhaps as a corrollary to the that, W/L is primarily a function of RS and RA.  Everytime you make a move that allows less runs, it improves your W/L.  The scoreboard doesn't differentiate how you reduced the oppsing team's ability to score.  6 good innings by the SP and three mediocre innings by the BP looks about the same to the scoreboard as 6 mediocre innings from the SP and 3 great innings from the BP.

    [/QUOTE]


    It is your opinion that we have an average rotation. we were 27th in team ERA last year. How does the addition of Dempster and loss of Beckett help?

    As far as great hitting, how is the team better offensively than it was before the Agon trade? it's certainly worse defensively, so any gain (which I doubt there is) would be nullified by weaker fielding.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Why Does Everyone Think Hanrahan is Great? Didn't we hear the same thing with Bailey last winter?

    In response to Alibiike's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Alibiike's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    You seem to forget that the best BP in the majors doesn't mean a thing with a mediocre rotation, which is what we have.

    [/QUOTE]


    Well that doesn't make a bit of sense. 

    The Sox have done a tremendous job of building the bullpen this offseason.  And yes, shortening games for the starters will help win ball games.

     

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    So, taxing the BP is the goal here? If the starters give up 4 or 5 runs through 5, no amount of shutout pitching from the BP will help us score runs, and we are not a better offensive team than we were before the mega deal.

    [/QUOTE]

    The league averaged 5.88 IP/GS.  The RS rotation has a career average of:

    • Lester  6.21
    • Buchholz  6.02
    • Dempster  5.50
    • Lackey  6.38
    • Doubront  6.17

    That makes out IP/GS 6.06.

    So explain why you think we will be taxing the BP?

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Why Does Everyone Think Hanrahan is Great? Didn't we hear the same thing with Bailey last winter?

    It is your opinion that we have an average rotation. we were 27th in team ERA last year. How does the addition of Dempster and loss of Beckett help?

    As far as great hitting, how is the team better offensively than it was before the Agon trade? it's certainly worse defensively, so any gain (which I doubt there is) would be nullified by weaker fielding.

    Just for the sake of sanity, don't use all 30 teams to compare ERA.  I'll go out on a limb and assume you know that the AL has a DH.

    My opinion that we will have a better than average ERA is based on Bill James projections:

    • Lester  3.71
    • Buchholz 3.64 
    • Dempster  3.74
    • Lackey  4.05
    • Doubront  3.70

    The Dempster projection was likely based on the Cubs and the NL in general, so add about 0.33.  That nets to about 3.77.  An estimated 20 starts by Morales, Aceves, etc, with an ERA of ~ 5.00. will bring that down to maybe 3.92.  The  #6/7 starting ERAs in the AL last year were 4.05/4.15, so I feel comfortable saying the RS rotation will be slightly better than average.

    Before the Gonzo trade, he was hitting .812.  I expect at least that from Napoli.  Past that. again, it is simply a matter of adding up all the projections, and comparing it to league averages.  It is more a matter of perspiration than inspiration in the projections.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Alibiike. Show Alibiike's posts

    Re: Why Does Everyone Think Hanrahan is Great? Didn't we hear the same thing with Bailey last winter?

    "My opinion that we will have a better than average ERA is based on Bill James projections:"

    Well then, it must be true!

    The god of statistical analysis has spoken!

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Why Does Everyone Think Hanrahan is Great? Didn't we hear the same thing with Bailey last winter?

    In response to Alibiike's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    "My opinion that we will have a better than average ERA is based on Bill James projections:"

    Well then, it must be true!

    The god of statistical analysis has spoken!

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Yup, that's how it goes in the real world.  Statistical analysis will beat gut feeling consistently.  And knowing where you are on the food chain probably means more than knowing the information itself.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from donrd4. Show donrd4's posts

    Re: Why Does Everyone Think Hanrahan is Great? Didn't we hear the same thing with Bailey last winter?

    In response to SinceYaz's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Everyone ... like in else?

     

      Are you somehow feeling left out?  Your paint brush is far too wide and your comments far too indiscriminate.

     No ! Just your blame on everyone is kind of stupid? ( WHY DOES EVERYONE ) Why do some on here think that Hanrahan is great  would work. So  now ewveryone on here thinks you know sh...it

       

    [/QUOTE]


     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Why Does Everyone Think Hanrahan is Great? Didn't we hear the same thing with Bailey last winter?

    In response to ADG's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Lifetime K/BB ratio of 2.27.

    Last year it was 1.86

    4.3 BB per 9 innings.

    Only one season with a WHIP under 1.20.

    And lastly, he pitched for the Pirates in Pittsburgh.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    So what are the Sox to do? By your logic, they shouldn't sign or acquire anyone because just because they had a good season with another team, it doesn't mean they'll be any good in the future.

    And by your logic with stats, once a player was bad, it means he can never improve. If everyone followed your way of thinking, it would be hard to field a team.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Why Does Everyone Think Hanrahan is Great? Didn't we hear the same thing with Bailey last winter?

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    It is your opinion that we have an average rotation. we were 27th in team ERA last year. How does the addition of Dempster and loss of Beckett help?

    As far as great hitting, how is the team better offensively than it was before the Agon trade? it's certainly worse defensively, so any gain (which I doubt there is) would be nullified by weaker fielding.

    Just for the sake of sanity, don't use all 30 teams to compare ERA.  I'll go out on a limb and assume you know that the AL has a DH.

    My opinion that we will have a better than average ERA is based on Bill James projections:

    • Lester  3.71
    • Buchholz 3.64 
    • Dempster  3.74
    • Lackey  4.05
    • Doubront  3.70

    The Dempster projection was likely based on the Cubs and the NL in general, so add about 0.33.  That nets to about 3.77.  An estimated 20 starts by Morales, Aceves, etc, with an ERA of ~ 5.00. will bring that down to maybe 3.92.  The  #6/7 starting ERAs in the AL last year were 4.05/4.15, so I feel comfortable saying the RS rotation will be slightly better than average.

    Before the Gonzo trade, he was hitting .812.  I expect at least that from Napoli.  Past that. again, it is simply a matter of adding up all the projections, and comparing it to league averages.  It is more a matter of perspiration than inspiration in the projections.

    [/QUOTE]

    Those projected ERAs are reasonable for the most part. I wouldn't be surprised if Lester's and Buchholz's are even lower. Lackey and Doubrant's could switch. In fact, I'm still not sold on Doubront. I'll be very happy if can be in the 4.20 to 4.50 range as a No. 5, assuming the other four pitch well enough for 1-4. If one of the others struggle, then he needs to step up.

     

     
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  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Why Does Everyone Think Hanrahan is Great? Didn't we hear the same thing with Bailey last winter?

    In response to JimfromFlorida's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Just remember Bailey was hurt and really had a short stint in the minors so his 19 games were really his ST.

    If the BP is Hanrahan, Bailey, Bard, Melancon, ACEVES, TARZAWA, Uehara, Morales  and Breslow just for starters I'll be happy

    [/QUOTE]

    Good post.  Do we still have Andrew Miller?

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: Why Does Everyone Think Hanrahan is Great? Didn't we hear the same thing with Bailey last winter?

    In response to Drewski5's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to JimfromFlorida's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Just remember Bailey was hurt and really had a short stint in the minors so his 19 games were really his ST.

    If the BP is Hanrahan, Bailey, Bard, Melancon, ACEVES, TARZAWA, Uehara, Morales  and Breslow just for starters I'll be happy

    [/QUOTE]

    Good post.  Do we still have Andrew Miller?

    [/QUOTE]

    He's under team control thru 2015 I believe.

    And Clay Mortensen is out of options if I'm not mistaken...maybe he could factor in somewhere, but that looks like a pretty stacked group right now, even subtracting Melancon.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Why Does Everyone Think Hanrahan is Great? Didn't we hear the same thing with Bailey last winter?

    In response to royf19's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    It is your opinion that we have an average rotation. we were 27th in team ERA last year. How does the addition of Dempster and loss of Beckett help?

    As far as great hitting, how is the team better offensively than it was before the Agon trade? it's certainly worse defensively, so any gain (which I doubt there is) would be nullified by weaker fielding.

    Just for the sake of sanity, don't use all 30 teams to compare ERA.  I'll go out on a limb and assume you know that the AL has a DH.

    My opinion that we will have a better than average ERA is based on Bill James projections:

    • Lester  3.71
    • Buchholz 3.64 
    • Dempster  3.74
    • Lackey  4.05
    • Doubront  3.70

    The Dempster projection was likely based on the Cubs and the NL in general, so add about 0.33.  That nets to about 3.77.  An estimated 20 starts by Morales, Aceves, etc, with an ERA of ~ 5.00. will bring that down to maybe 3.92.  The  #6/7 starting ERAs in the AL last year were 4.05/4.15, so I feel comfortable saying the RS rotation will be slightly better than average.

    Before the Gonzo trade, he was hitting .812.  I expect at least that from Napoli.  Past that. again, it is simply a matter of adding up all the projections, and comparing it to league averages.  It is more a matter of perspiration than inspiration in the projections.

    [/QUOTE]

    Those projected ERAs are reasonable for the most part. I wouldn't be surprised if Lester's and Buchholz's are even lower. Lackey and Doubrant's could switch. In fact, I'm still not sold on Doubront. I'll be very happy if can be in the 4.20 to 4.50 range as a No. 5, assuming the other four pitch well enough for 1-4. If one of the others struggle, then he needs to step up.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I agree, I think Lester and Buchholz will do better than James predicts, and Dempster, Lackey, and Doubront a little worse.  My whole approach was the same even before I looked at the numbers.  As a group, Lackey, Dempster, and Doubront should be about average.  So even if Lester and Buchholz are a little above average, then as a team, we should be about average.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from kimsaysthis. Show kimsaysthis's posts

    Re: Why Does Everyone Think Hanrahan is Great? Didn't we hear the same thing with Bailey last winter?

    "ADG" starts another long headline post and, as usual, he doesn't get into the discussion, he only responds to one post that nailed him. As for ADG putting up this thread because of the supposed current situation with the Sox, that's nonsense. ADG has been putting these threads up for as long as I can remember no matter how the Sox are doing. It's a shame that posters still continue to flock to them.

    If you build it, they will come. 

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Why Does Everyone Think Hanrahan is Great? Didn't we hear the same thing with Bailey last winter?

    In response to kimsaysthis' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    "ADG" starts another long headline post and, as usual, he doesn't get into the discussion, he only responds to one post that nailed him. As for ADG putting up this thread because of the supposed current situation with the Sox, that's nonsense. ADG has been putting these threads up for as long as I can remember no matter how the Sox are doing. It's a shame that posters still continue to flock to them.

    If you build it, they will come. 

    [/QUOTE]


    quick! made a new thread with a title longer than the OP! that'll show them!!

     
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  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Alibiike. Show Alibiike's posts

    Re: Why Does Everyone Think Hanrahan is Great? Didn't we hear the same thing with Bailey last winter?

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Alibiike's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    "My opinion that we will have a better than average ERA is based on Bill James projections:"

    Well then, it must be true!

    The god of statistical analysis has spoken!

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Yup, that's how it goes in the real world.  Statistical analysis will beat gut feeling consistently.  And knowing where you are on the food chain probably means more than knowing the information itself.

    [/QUOTE]


    Would that be the Stokely food chain? Isn't that where Bill James used to work?

     
  18. This post has been removed.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Why Does Everyone Think Hanrahan is Great? Didn't we hear the same thing with Bailey last winter?

    The 2013 projections from the Bill James Handbook:

    Hanrahan 59 G, 57 IP, 3.63 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 9.16 K/9, 4.11 BB/9

    Melancon 47 G, 57 IP, 3.47 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 8.53 K/9, 2.68 BB/9

    I still value four years of 27-year-old Mark Melancon over one year of 31-year-old Joel Hanrahan.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Why Does Everyone Think Hanrahan is Great? Didn't we hear the same thing with Bailey last winter?

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The 2013 projections from the Bill James Handbook:

    Hanrahan 59 G, 57 IP, 3.63 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 9.16 K/9, 4.11 BB/9

    Melancon 47 G, 57 IP, 3.47 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 8.53 K/9, 2.68 BB/9

    I still value four years of 27-year-old Mark Melancon over one year of 31-year-old Joel Hanrahan.

    [/QUOTE]

    Not if you wanted a closer.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Why Does Everyone Think Hanrahan is Great? Didn't we hear the same thing with Bailey last winter?

    In response to EdithBRTN's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    ADG is an abbreviation for Androscoggin region of Maine? Isn't that where Carnie lives?

    [/QUOTE]


    Still trying to out people, what a scumbag.

     
  22. This post has been removed.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: Why Does Everyone Think Hanrahan is Great? Didn't we hear the same thing with Bailey last winter?

    Pike, here are some more leads on ADG's identity for you to investigate:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ADG

    I'm afraid this conspiracy is far vaster than we ever could have dreamed. Please report back with your findings.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Why Does Everyone Think Hanrahan is Great? Didn't we hear the same thing with Bailey last winter?

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to EdithBRTN's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    ADG is an abbreviation for Androscoggin region of Maine? Isn't that where Carnie lives?

    [/QUOTE]


    Still trying to out people, what a "word that BDC doesn't like".

    [/QUOTE]


    It's actually kind of laughable that he would think ADG and I are the same person. I can't think of two people on this board that are more different. Well, except for me and pike anyway. Plus I have 9000+ posts on this moniker since 2008 and have never been banned. Pike, meanwhile can't seem to hang onto a screen name for longer than a month. Pot, meet kettle.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Why Does Everyone Think Hanrahan is Great? Didn't we hear the same thing with Bailey last winter?

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The 2013 projections from the Bill James Handbook:

    Hanrahan 59 G, 57 IP, 3.63 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 9.16 K/9, 4.11 BB/9

    Melancon 47 G, 57 IP, 3.47 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 8.53 K/9, 2.68 BB/9

    I still value four years of 27-year-old Mark Melancon over one year of 31-year-old Joel Hanrahan.

    [/QUOTE]

    Not if you wanted a closer.

    [/QUOTE]

    +1 Melancon did close for the astros but what happened everytime we had him in in high leverage situations? he fell apart.

     

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