Why Ellsbury's trade value will go DOWN as the season progresses

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Why Ellsbury's trade value will go DOWN as the season progresses

    I keep seeing people post in different threads some form of:


    "If Ellsbury is having a good year again, he will bring a lot more at the deadline."

    No, he will not.

    Any team trading for him at that point will get a few month rental, and ZERO compensation if/when he signs elsewhere. If a team has him ALL season, they at least get a draft pick as compensation. Add in Borass as his agent, and few teams will be willing to give up anything of value at the deadline because Borass clients, with little deviation, enter free agency.

    I just wanted to clear up that misunderstanding many people seem to be stuck on. Days of teams trading away multiple prospects for a rental are long gone. It simply does not happen anymore. When that player has a few months, plus a year of control or more left, it's a different story. To think Ellsbury will go out and put up another 2011, and some team will blow the Sox away in July is foolish.

    At this point, the only chance the Sox have to get good compensation for him is to trade him before the season, or keep him all year and live witht he draft pick after some team inexplicably gives a 30 year old 6/110.

     
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  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from westcoastsox9. Show westcoastsox9's posts

    Re: Why Ellsbury's trade value will go DOWN as the season progresses

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Correct. They had their chance to get rid of this parasitic albatross last winter. They will have their last chance to get rid of this parasitic albatross and get a value and fit net in return, this winter.

    [/QUOTE]

    Seriously dude, what has Ellsbury done to you?  Did he steal your girlfriend or something? To call a person who you do not know a parasitic albatross is very childish and juvenile.  There are better ways to show your disagreement to him being on the team. This obsession with Ellsbury is sickening.

     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from charliedarling. Show charliedarling's posts

    Re: Why Ellsbury's trade value will go DOWN as the season progresses

    I do not call guys "dude",  but I do agree that waiting until the trade deadline is not a good time to trade Ellsbury.

    If he and the Red Sox are doing well (and, I fully believe if the Sox are doing well at that time of the year that Ellsbury will have to be in the middle of a season like he had in 2011) at the trade deadline in 2013, it behoves the Sox to either bring in some players and make a run at a playoff spot for 2013 or keep him for the last 3 months, offer him a 2014 contract for $13 M and get a draft pick for him the following summer if he does sign somewhere else or keep him in 2014 on that one year contract.

    If on the other hand, the Sox are not doing well regardless of what Ellsbury is doing, his value is going to be less than what it is right now.  It has been mentioned that whichever team gets him in mid season will only have him for half a year and will not get a draft pick for him even if they decide to offer him the $13 M for 2014 that will get the draft pick.

    The worst scenario next summer for the Sox is that they are floundering at the trade deadline and Ellsbury is also struggling.  At that point, he will have showed that his 2011 season was the fluke that some already believe and his trade value might only be a second rate prospect from somewhere.

    Trade him now and they can get at least a major league starting pitcher and a good prospect or two good top of the line prosepcts and a reserve type player or a third (lesser) prospect.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from donrd4. Show donrd4's posts

    Re: Why Ellsbury's trade value will go DOWN as the season progresses

    In response to ma6dragon9's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I keep seeing people post in different threads some form of:


    "If Ellsbury is having a good year again, he will bring a lot more at the deadline."

    No, he will not.

    Any team trading for him at that point will get a few month rental, and ZERO compensation if/when he signs elsewhere. If a team has him ALL season, they at least get a draft pick as compensation. Add in Borass as his agent, and few teams will be willing to give up anything of value at the deadline because Borass clients, with little deviation, enter free agency.

    I just wanted to clear up that misunderstanding many people seem to be stuck on. Days of teams trading away multiple prospects for a rental are long gone. It simply does not happen anymore. When that player has a few months, plus a year of control or more left, it's a different story. To think Ellsbury will go out and put up another 2011, and some team will blow the Sox away in July is foolish.

    At this point, the only chance the Sox have to get good compensation for him is to trade him before the season, or keep him all year and live witht he draft pick after some team inexplicably gives a 30 year old 6/110.

    [/QUOTE]

    Ithink if Ells is not signed ,he will be gone before season starts . No way will sox settle for draft pick for him.  Might even be real soon ?

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Why Ellsbury's trade value will go DOWN as the season progresses

    In response to ma6dragon9's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I keep seeing people post in different threads some form of:


    "If Ellsbury is having a good year again, he will bring a lot more at the deadline."

    No, he will not.

    Any team trading for him at that point will get a few month rental, and ZERO compensation if/when he signs elsewhere. If a team has him ALL season, they at least get a draft pick as compensation. Add in Borass as his agent, and few teams will be willing to give up anything of value at the deadline because Borass clients, with little deviation, enter free agency.

    I just wanted to clear up that misunderstanding many people seem to be stuck on. Days of teams trading away multiple prospects for a rental are long gone. It simply does not happen anymore. When that player has a few months, plus a year of control or more left, it's a different story. To think Ellsbury will go out and put up another 2011, and some team will blow the Sox away in July is foolish.

    At this point, the only chance the Sox have to get good compensation for him is to trade him before the season, or keep him all year and live witht he draft pick after some team inexplicably gives a 30 year old 6/110.

    [/QUOTE]


    The Marlins acquired three-time top 30 BA prospect Jacob Turner in addition to Tigers #7 Rob Brantly for Sanchez and Infante...

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: Why Ellsbury's trade value will go DOWN as the season progresses

    no doubt, if the team is not headed to the play-offs and the 2011 version of Elles is on the field come July you had best not bet against the Sox landing a premium prospect from a team in desperate need of a CF and who is well on their way to the play-offs.

    So what if we don't get 3 or 4 prospects and who is to say Elled would not be part of a package that sends the other team not only Elles but a relief pitcher or infielder. What if Lester and Elles went together in July?

    Why would we not get some very special players back? 

     

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from BostonTrollSpanker. Show BostonTrollSpanker's posts

    Re: Why Ellsbury's trade value will go DOWN as the season progresses

    "Seriously "Dude", using "Dude" shows how the demagogue won 50% of the last national electorate. It's a droning juvenile slur."

    Since you brought up politics as you are wont to do, just a reminder that the dude won with a sophisticated on-the-ground "get out the vote" operation that triumphed over the greedy corporate interests you defend like a soldier taking your own bayonette. Though I guess I can understand why you would take it personally that the American people don't want wingnuts in charge. Oh well there is always this forum for you to deposit your political drivel in. 

    As for Ellsbury your contempt for him is irrational, but ironically enough your position on him has finally wound its way towards valid as his contract comes close to expiring. The OP is right, moving him during the season would not make as much sense. It will be interesting to see what the front office wants to do here. I'd like to see the trade before the season - but a gamble that he will have a great season again could pay off with a better haul come the deadline. I say more him sooner and send Boras packing....That said there are plenty of months before the season starts, so maybe this thread will get to 500 or so, we can only hope.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Why Ellsbury's trade value will go DOWN as the season progresses

    Correct. They had their chance to get rid of this parasitic albatross last winter. They will have their last chance to get rid of this parasitic albatross and get a value and fit net in return, this winter.

    [/QUOTE]

    Seriously dude, what has Ellsbury done to you?  Did he steal your girlfriend or something? To call a person who you do not know a parasitic albatross is very childish and juvenile.  There are better ways to show your disagreement to him being on the team. This obsession with Ellsbury is sickening.

    [/QUOTE]


    Another poster suggested that Softy doth protest too much and is in fact in love with Ellbury, hence the new nickname "Stiffy".

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: Why Ellsbury's trade value will go DOWN as the season progresses

    If I'm the Sox I make one last attempt to sign Ells if that doesn't work: Move Him  Now.

    He's been a model citizen while with the Sox--I would try to trade him to a team of his choice as long as we get back acceptable compensation. If it's not a CF'der I would either sign Victorino or Hamilton or committ to JBJ.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: Why Ellsbury's trade value will go DOWN as the season progresses

    Value will go down? How much lower can it go? Missed good portions of 2 of last 3 seasons, his agent is S.Boras, has 1 yr left on his deal. So let me get this straight some team is going to give up its top prospects for a guy who is always hurt, agent is S.Boras wich means he will play only [1] season for you, then will go to FA market. The only option RS have is to let him play out season, which will probably be very good one since he's playing for a big contract. Try to sign him after he files for FA, if not Jackie Bradley is the new CF in 2014 and RS receive draft picks for losing him to West Coast team. Which IMO opinion is where he will end up. Remember the prospects you get in return better be bettter than the prospect you would get for losing him + season you will get out of him next year.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Why Ellsbury's trade value will go DOWN as the season progresses

    In response to BostonTrollSpanker's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    "Seriously "Dude", using "Dude" shows how the demagogue won 50% of the last national electorate. It's a droning juvenile slur."

    Since you brought up politics as you are wont to do, just a reminder that the dude won with a sophisticated on-the-ground "get out the vote" operation that triumphed over the greedy corporate interests you defend like a soldier taking your own bayonette. Though I guess I can understand why you would take it personally that the American people don't want wingnuts in charge. Oh well there is always this forum for you to deposit your political drivel in. 

    As for Ellsbury your contempt for him is irrational, but ironically enough your position on him has finally wound its way towards valid as his contract comes close to expiring. The OP is right, moving him during the season would not make as much sense. It will be interesting to see what the front office wants to do here. I'd like to see the trade before the season - but a gamble that he will have a great season again could pay off with a better haul come the deadline. I say more him sooner and send Boras packing....That said there are plenty of months before the season starts, so maybe this thread will get to 500 or so, we can only hope.

    [/QUOTE]

    You do realize that both Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr., as well as Deven Marrerro are represented by Scott Boras right? Boras isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from FantaSox. Show FantaSox's posts

    Re: Why Ellsbury's trade value will go DOWN as the season progresses

    In response to westcoastsox9's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Correct. They had their chance to get rid of this parasitic albatross last winter. They will have their last chance to get rid of this parasitic albatross and get a value and fit net in return, this winter.

    [/QUOTE]

    Seriously dude, what has Ellsbury done to you?  Did he steal your girlfriend or something? To call a person who you do not know a parasitic albatross is very childish and juvenile.  There are better ways to show your disagreement to him being on the team. This obsession with Ellsbury is sickening.

    [/QUOTE]


     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Why Ellsbury's trade value will go DOWN as the season progresses

    The decision on Ellsbury should be made on what is best for the team. Nothing else.  You cannot be afraid of Boras. Like it or not , Boras is the top agent in the game.  A team cannot just refuse to do business with Boras.   You have to face reality.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Why Ellsbury's trade value will go DOWN as the season progresses

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Correct. They had their chance to get rid of this parasitic albatross last winter. They will have their last chance to get rid of this parasitic albatross and get a value and fit net in return, this winter.

    [/QUOTE]


    You have your parasitic albatrosses confused.  The biggest one is Borass.

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hingham Hammer. Show Hingham Hammer's posts

    Re: Why Ellsbury's trade value will go DOWN as the season progresses

    I will be very surprised is Ell's doesn't get traded this winter.

    Texas is one very possible destination all things considered.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Yaso#7. Show Yaso#7's posts

    Re: Why Ellsbury's trade value will go DOWN as the season progresses

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Correct. They had their chance to get rid of this parasitic albatross last winter. They will have their last chance to get rid of this parasitic albatross and get a value and fit net in return, this winter.

    [/QUOTE]


    This is a great way to explain yourself "parasitic albatross".    You are such a Tool!

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Why Ellsbury's trade value will go DOWN as the season progresses

    In response to westcoastsox9's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Correct. They had their chance to get rid of this parasitic albatross last winter. They will have their last chance to get rid of this parasitic albatross and get a value and fit net in return, this winter.

    [/QUOTE]

    Seriously dude, what has Ellsbury done to you?  Did he steal your girlfriend or something? To call a person who you do not know a parasitic albatross is very childish and juvenile.  There are better ways to show your disagreement to him being on the team. This obsession with Ellsbury is sickening.

    [/QUOTE]

    It stems from when Softlaw said Cameron should start and Ellsbury should be a bench player.  A few short months later, Ellsbury was hands-down the best player in BB with a 9.4 WAR, Cameron comes in at -0.9, and there were people signing in from Japan to see the person that made the worst call in BB history.  So Softie blames Ellsbury for making him look ridiculous.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Why Ellsbury's trade value will go DOWN as the season progresses

    Right now, 2011 looks like a fluke for Ellsbury.  He had 323 PAs in 2012 - that's not a cup of coffee, and he was nowhere near the numbers of the year prior.  He wasn't even average offensively. If you trade him now, it's under the assumption he'll never be the player he was in 2011.  If you hold onto him, maybe his performance had more to do with injury than returning to form, and you can turn some heads at the trade deadline.  It doesn't really matter who is in contention - there will always be a need for a left-handed CF with power and speed, if that is who Ellsbury is in 2012.  And if it's not, what have you missed out on?  What do you think teams will give up right now for a CF with a history of injuries and an OPS under .700 in the final year of his contract?

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Why Ellsbury's trade value will go DOWN as the season progresses

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Value will go down? How much lower can it go? Missed good portions of 2 of last 3 seasons, his agent is S.Boras, has 1 yr left on his deal. So let me get this straight some team is going to give up its top prospects for a guy who is always hurt, agent is S.Boras wich means he will play only [1] season for you, then will go to FA market. The only option RS have is to let him play out season, which will probably be very good one since he's playing for a big contract. Try to sign him after he files for FA, if not Jackie Bradley is the new CF in 2014 and RS receive draft picks for losing him to West Coast team. Which IMO opinion is where he will end up. Remember the prospects you get in return better be bettter than the prospect you would get for losing him + season you will get out of him next year.

    [/QUOTE]


    correctamundo

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Why Ellsbury's trade value will go DOWN as the season progresses

    Value will go down? How much lower can it go? Missed good portions of 2 of last 3 seasons, his agent is S.Boras, has 1 yr left on his deal. So let me get this straight some team is going to give up its top prospects for a guy who is always hurt, agent is S.Boras wich means he will play only [1] season for you, then will go to FA market.

    There are a lot of players with less pedigree than Ellsbury with one year of team control left who have been traded for a decent prospect or two.

    The only option RS have is to let him play out season, which will probably be very good one since he's playing for a big contract.

    Aren't you contradicting yourself here? If you think he will "probably have a very good [season] since he's playing for a big contract", shouldn't just one GM agree with you and pay dearly for that chance? I think there are probably 2-3 teams that think they might win a ring if they has the 2011 Elsbury on their team for 2013. They's certainly give a better prospect(s) than a 2014 sandwich pick. For one reason alone, they know they will (probably, if they qualify offer) get the draft pick for themselves after Jacoby walks, so of course the GM must give us a prospect or two greater than the value of a sandwich pick plus the one year projected value of Jacoby.

    Try to sign him after he files for FA, if not Jackie Bradley is the new CF in 2014 and RS receive draft picks for losing him to West Coast team. Which IMO opinion is where he will end up. Remember the prospects you get in return better be bettter than the prospect you would get for losing him + season you will get out of him next year.

    To oversimplify my position, I see it like this. Jacoby has a value based on 2 things:

    1) 1 year of team control during his biggest contract year of his career (unless he signs a 1 year deal in 2014).

    2) The attached compensatory pick the team who has him for all of the 2013 season will get when he walks after 2013.

    So, wouldn't Jacoby's value under #1 above be worth more to a serious contender in need of a quality CF'er than a team like the Sox who are building towards a strong run by 2014 or 2015?

    I can understand those fans who do not want to write off 2013, and who think we need Ellsbury to compete in 2013, but if we trade him for a top prospect or two, and spend his $8-10M wisely, we can be strong (but not favorites) in 2013, but more importantly, much stronger for 2014 and beyond, since we will have players under team control for beyond 2013 (unlike Jacoby).

    It is my contention that we will not sign Greinke & Hamilton or even Greinke and Swisher or A Sanchez & Swisher, but even if we do sign two of these guys and keep Ellsbury, we will not be a top 4 favorite in 2013. I hope I am wrong about our chances in 2013, but it is my main argument for wanting to trade Ellsbury before the season starts.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Why Ellsbury's trade value will go DOWN as the season progresses

    In response to georom4's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Value will go down? How much lower can it go? Missed good portions of 2 of last 3 seasons, his agent is S.Boras, has 1 yr left on his deal. So let me get this straight some team is going to give up its top prospects for a guy who is always hurt, agent is S.Boras wich means he will play only [1] season for you, then will go to FA market. The only option RS have is to let him play out season, which will probably be very good one since he's playing for a big contract. Try to sign him after he files for FA, if not Jackie Bradley is the new CF in 2014 and RS receive draft picks for losing him to West Coast team. Which IMO opinion is where he will end up. Remember the prospects you get in return better be bettter than the prospect you would get for losing him + season you will get out of him next year.

    [/QUOTE]


    correctamundo

    [/QUOTE]

    It's correctamundo, but it is also obvious, and it also applies theoretically to everyone.  If any given player has a WAR of 4, and half the season is gone, he has a value of 2.  If a FA to be plays one game, then the comp is gone, and he goes down in value.  All of this is rather self-evident.

     
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  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Why Ellsbury's trade value will go DOWN as the season progresses

    In response to carnie's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to BostonTrollSpanker's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    "Seriously "Dude", using "Dude" shows how the demagogue won 50% of the last national electorate. It's a droning juvenile slur."

    Since you brought up politics as you are wont to do, just a reminder that the dude won with a sophisticated on-the-ground "get out the vote" operation that triumphed over the greedy corporate interests you defend like a soldier taking your own bayonette. Though I guess I can understand why you would take it personally that the American people don't want wingnuts in charge. Oh well there is always this forum for you to deposit your political drivel in. 

    As for Ellsbury your contempt for him is irrational, but ironically enough your position on him has finally wound its way towards valid as his contract comes close to expiring. The OP is right, moving him during the season would not make as much sense. It will be interesting to see what the front office wants to do here. I'd like to see the trade before the season - but a gamble that he will have a great season again could pay off with a better haul come the deadline. I say more him sooner and send Boras packing....That said there are plenty of months before the season starts, so maybe this thread will get to 500 or so, we can only hope.

    [/QUOTE]

    You do realize that both Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr., as well as Deven Marrerro are represented by Scott Boras right? Boras isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

    [/QUOTE]


    Ya beat me to it carnie. Boras will be around the Sox organization for many years.

     

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