Re: Why Ellsbury's trade value will go DOWN as the season progresses
posted at 12/3/2012 9:27 PM EST
Value will go down? How much lower can it go? Missed good portions of 2 of last 3 seasons, his agent is S.Boras, has 1 yr left on his deal. So let me get this straight some team is going to give up its top prospects for a guy who is always hurt, agent is S.Boras wich means he will play only  season for you, then will go to FA market.
There are a lot of players with less pedigree than Ellsbury with one year of team control left who have been traded for a decent prospect or two.
The only option RS have is to let him play out season, which will probably be very good one since he's playing for a big contract.
Aren't you contradicting yourself here? If you think he will "probably have a very good [season] since he's playing for a big contract", shouldn't just one GM agree with you and pay dearly for that chance? I think there are probably 2-3 teams that think they might win a ring if they has the 2011 Elsbury on their team for 2013. They's certainly give a better prospect(s) than a 2014 sandwich pick. For one reason alone, they know they will (probably, if they qualify offer) get the draft pick for themselves after Jacoby walks, so of course the GM must give us a prospect or two greater than the value of a sandwich pick plus the one year projected value of Jacoby.
Try to sign him after he files for FA, if not Jackie Bradley is the new CF in 2014 and RS receive draft picks for losing him to West Coast team. Which IMO opinion is where he will end up. Remember the prospects you get in return better be bettter than the prospect you would get for losing him + season you will get out of him next year.
To oversimplify my position, I see it like this. Jacoby has a value based on 2 things:
1) 1 year of team control during his biggest contract year of his career (unless he signs a 1 year deal in 2014).
2) The attached compensatory pick the team who has him for all of the 2013 season will get when he walks after 2013.
So, wouldn't Jacoby's value under #1 above be worth more to a serious contender in need of a quality CF'er than a team like the Sox who are building towards a strong run by 2014 or 2015?
I can understand those fans who do not want to write off 2013, and who think we need Ellsbury to compete in 2013, but if we trade him for a top prospect or two, and spend his $8-10M wisely, we can be strong (but not favorites) in 2013, but more importantly, much stronger for 2014 and beyond, since we will have players under team control for beyond 2013 (unlike Jacoby).
It is my contention that we will not sign Greinke & Hamilton or even Greinke and Swisher or A Sanchez & Swisher, but even if we do sign two of these guys and keep Ellsbury, we will not be a top 4 favorite in 2013. I hope I am wrong about our chances in 2013, but it is my main argument for wanting to trade Ellsbury before the season starts.