We ranked 27th of 30 teams in ERA last year, and it probably would have been much worse had it not been for the BP. Yet Ben decides we need to acquire position players who are not even all that good.

The possible reasons for Ben's reluctance to get some help for the rotation are:

1) Ben thinks 2012 was an anomoly, and the our top three will return to form.

2) Ben feels the catching was the problem hence the acquisition of Ross and Napoli.

3) Ben doesn't think any of the FAs are a good fit except Dempster

4) After being snake-bit by Beckett and Lackey contracts, Ben doesn't want to give anyone more than 3 years.

5) Ben is expecting Mark Prior to have a comeback year.

I'm sure they will add a starter.  There's no excuse for not doing so.  The 2012 rotation had the highest ERA in franchise history and we have plenty of payroll room.

Ali wants to know why we cannot be more like the Royals

In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

No. But I do wonder how small market teams like the A's and Ray's manage to have great pitching with depth.
There is no way the Ray's would have dealt us Shields regardless of who they could have gotten from us. They hate us worse that NY.

 

Lackey will be back.

In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

that's what i'm afraid of.

In response to Alibiike's comment:

good post ali. turns out not EVERY post of yours smacks of whining.

now that grienke is accounted for the SP market should be rolling along, i can definitely see ben not giving more than 3 years (2 would be ideal) due to the fact that we have so many pitchers in our system who will likely be MLB ready in the next 2-4 years. that certainly limits our options in FA because most guys are looking for decent-big money over 3-5 years. i feel he is looking into dempster so much because he is the most likely of all FA starters to sign for 2 years. 2012 WAS an anamoly and i will guarentee lester/buch will not be as bad as they were in 2012. lackey can not do worse than he did in 2011 so your getting an upgrade from him no matter what. doobie will progress as a starter and if not then morales can take his spot with success. that leaves the 5th spot open for a FA/trade but the guy we get has to be a sure thing for 200 innings for us to compete in 2013 which is why he did not go after mccarthy/haren/hanson (all pitchers with big question marks).

i still think loshe is our guy. i think he will be willing to come down to 3 years. just a matter of how much we overpay

In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

I fear Lackey more than the North Koreans.  

I believe Lackey is a spy sent by the Angels to hurt our team.  LOL

In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

Burrito (EnchiladaT) was saying the same thing last year. There might be some merit to that idea.

lester, Buch, Lackey, doubront, and either Morales or Aceves.

That is what it is going to be unless a trade happens, because there aren't many better options in Free agency.

I keep thinking A trade is going to come down, especially after they signed Ross.

In response to snakeoil123's comment:

same here. but BC is going to look to keep our top prospects so idk how good of a pitcher we can land with salty/lava, possibly jacoby, BP arms and/or prospects (not top 10)

In response to mef429's comment:

 he doesn't trade a prospect then the Red Sox aren't going to get a good pitcher for the rotation.  It is one or the other. 

In response to Alibiike's comment:

       "I wonder how ..............A's and Ray's manage to have great pitching with depth"

              Because those two teams ignore the approach you want Ben to take.

 

In response to snakeoil123's comment:

which is why i would take loshe on a short deal or use ace/morales/tazawa instead oftrading away top prospects

I know that ERA isnt the whole story, but is the simplest stat to compare. The Sox staff as it stands right now would probably be Lester, Buch, Lackey, Doubront, and Morales. Yes, the starters ERA was horrible last year, but given the turmoil and the constant changing of pitching coaches, it would seem with Farrell back that would lead to improvement. The Career ERA's for the Boston starters,

Lester 3:76, Buchholz 3:92, Lackey 4:10, Douby 4:86. and Morales(AL only), I won't kill him for Colorado) 3:70.

The ERA's of some of the main Free Agents out there, many who are being touted by Message boarders. Edwin Jackson, 4:40, Dempster 4:33, Lohse 4:45, Anibal Sanchez 3:75 B Mc Carthy 4:02.

Other than Anibal Sanchez, just based on ERA, why would we expect a better performance from any of these guys, and why would you give any of them long term deals.

 

 

In response to Alibiike's comment:

By stinking for years and accumulating top draft picks.

In response to snakeoil123's comment:

Dont sleep on De La Rosa.

i was hoping for grienke because it meant we could keep our younguns and not spend too much on other nonsense....instead we got a lot of 30+ guys and still no starting pitching stud...which means salty or ells will have to be dealt to get a decent, not great pitcher....i like my plan better than bens....

In response to georom4's comment:

not me. 150Mil could be best spent elsewhere

In response to Alibiike's comment:

They dont trade away all of their young pitchers, and they cant sign big market FA's so they never give up draft picks, and when their High price FA's who they cant afford to sign are taken by another team they get draft picks. They have great young home grown pitching

The Red Sox used to be a hybrid of that system and a large market team which is why they won two WS in the last ten years but for some God knows what reason from 2009 on Theo decided to drop that model and become big spending and reckless trading all Big market team. 

I think ben is trying to get back to that hybrid system which takes time. That is why the short contracts on guys that wont cost them picks and a season where we have the number seven in every round is a great time to start. No player should walk through those doors that costs a drat pick until we have a stocked farm, they should and I think when we are out of it by the trade deadline will trade ellsbury, and save all the money we got back in the LA trade for a guy that you 1000000001% know they will help the team long term and are worth the money.

Sorry to tell you this but the sox need to rebuild and it wont take one season. Being a big market club it will take shorter to rebuild than other teams but time it will take.

In response to tomnev's comment:

Always nice to see analyze the problem.  Our problem is not at the lower end.  We need an ace.  I wouldn't mind a s/t deal on someone like Marcum, but the rest of these guys are looking for 3-4, and I am not convinced they'll do much better than Morales and/or Tazawa.  Just for discussion purposes, Bill James has Morales projected for a 3.98, Jackson for a 3.98, Dempster for a 3.74

If we opened up the checkbook for guys like Lee or Halladay, that represents a significant improvement.  But to upgrade to Jackson, Dempster, etc., I think there has to be better targets.

In response to Alibiike's comment:

Do not forget the other pssibilities

 

6) Ben just does not like you.

 

7) The off-season is not over yet.

In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

 

Therein is the rub, at least for me.  Worst ERA in franchise history and Ben seems to be content to go to battle with the same warriors because he now has Farrell in the saddle and an injured Lackey returning to health.  He needs a top of the rotation starter to get us quality innings for the next couple of years while Owens, Barnes, Webster, De LaRosa and perhaps a Pat Light to develop (hopefully into really good starters). 

And I do not see Dempster as an upgrade for anyone.  Depth yes, but upgrade, no.

As far as trades go.  Perhaps there is an overpaid starter of some real value, who is in the last year of his contract, who pitches on a team that already knows they are going nowhere who will accept Aceves, Salty and Ells in return, but that is highly (if you haven't sensed my sarcasm already) unlikely.  I say open the wallet for Sanchez, who I was (and stated at the time) disappointed they traded away, and if it is for 5 years, then so be it.  Lester and Lackey will not likely be around in 5 years, but the Sox will still need a few anchors in their rotation to pitch along side their newbies, even if 50% of them develop to their ceiling (an entirely unrealistic percentage).  I would, however, hold out for an injury provision, much like Lackey's. 

Ben, don't let Lackey's contract dissuade you.  There are good starters that are worth overpaying in the last two years of their contract for the three or four years that they make your team a top notch team (see Sabatthia, CC).  And the Beckett faux pas was giving him an extension.  With his personality, it meant to him that he could rest on his laurels and do whatever he pleased.  Not all FA pitchers take their money and grow fat and bullheaded.  If FA is the way you want to go, and I believe it is, then you have to overpay.  That is a given.  I'd rather you overpay for pitching, based on recent experience (see Crawford, C.).  Mostly because pitching is what you need the most, and oh so badly.

Besides, we do not know the extent of the Lackey disaster, as he has not played out his contract.  The injury provision reduced the amount per season.  If Lackey ends up picking up where he left off before succumbing to the injury he seemed destined to succumb to, then you get value out of that deal pretty much commensurate with the price paid, considering what inflation has done to the pitching market.

Right now if they dont make a trade, I just dint see the point of acquiring any of these FA pitchers. None of them resemble a good upgrade from what we have internally for the price.

A trade would be the way to go. And with the price of starting pitching being sky high (Dempster; 3 years north of 12M per?) We might have to give up a lot to get a TOTR starter like some here demand.

In response to Drewski5's comment:

I was wondering when someone was going to state the obvious.