Why is everyone so quick to dismiss Ellsbury?

  1. This post has been removed.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Why is everyone so quick to dismiss Ellsbury?

    In response to bobbysu's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Take it easy on Bradley, .271 at Portland not bad, but nothing like Ells did there. He lite it up, in fact he was too good for Double AA.

    [/QUOTE]


    exactly. i'm not saying JBJ is going to suck. but a prospect is a prospect. even the most surefire prospects do not pan out. sometimes the most unlikely ones come through and are a force to be reckoned with. I would not let walk just because JBJ is in the organization. last time i checked there are 3 OF spots and ellsbury is proven on this stage as well as the big stage. the FO has said nothing but good things about him and want to sign him longterm. he has given no inclination that he WANTS to leave. so its absurd to think he will sign elsewhere even if we are the highest bidder..

     
  3. This post has been removed.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Why is everyone so quick to dismiss Ellsbury?

    All fair points.  For those who think that 2013 will be a rebuildng year, trading Ells makes sense.  If the Red Sox are going to contend next year, however, Ells is a player that can help the Sox get there.  That  being the case, I am not as willing to trade him this offseason as others are, especially since we already have holes/question marks at our other OF positions. 

    We have so many holes, it is unrealistic to think we can plug them all up sufficiently enough to SERIOUSLY compete in 2013:

    1) Top of rotation starter- ace or solid #2 slot type: Greinke and Haren are not the right profiles,and trading for someone else would create more issues that we solve.

    2) 2 slot or solid #3 type: We may be able to fill this void with a FA signing that works out, or a trade for someone like Brett Anderson (who could morph into a #1/2 slot by 2014.

    3) RH'd Slugger who also gets on base and plays RF, LF or 1B. (Clean-up or 3 slot profile)

    4) Decent player at one slot not filled by #3 (RF, LF, or 1B)

    5) Decent player at other slot not filled by #3 (RF, LF, or 1B)

    6) SS: may work out if Iggy flashed enough defense to make our staff stronger. 

    7) Bullpen: pens rarely do well for 2 straight seasons without any upgrades or changes. The return of a healthy Lackey and the acquisition of a couple top starters will push a couple guys to the pen, so maybe no upgrade would be needed if #1 and #2 occur.

    8) Health: the great unkown wildcard.

    I am usually one of the most optimistic Sox fans on this site, and one of the last to give up on the Sox during a season. Each spring, I do my anual projections and normally put the Sox at 96 to 100 wins. There's a long way to go before the 2013 roster is finalized, but we are light years away from seriously competing, and with the state of the free agent class this year, I just don't see us filling enough gaps without giving up on our future in the process. That is why I try to take a balanced view and recognize that we can't have the best of both worlds (seriously compete in 2013 and seriously compete in 2014 and well beyond). We most likely will have to choose one at the expense of the other. If we sign the likes of Hamilton and Greinke, we may compete in 2013, but we will be crippled by their contracts for years to come, and at the mercy of an injury that freezes too much salary to make adjustments as needed.

     
  5. This post has been removed.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Why is everyone so quick to dismiss Ellsbury?

    In response to Soxdog67's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I somewhat agree with JFF here...Red Sox fans nowadays and on this forum live by the "what have you done for me lately" attitude.

    The fact that some already speak of a "bridge year" before the Hot Stove season even has started is another indication of that...Ben C hasn't fully transformed the team before we all sit down for Turkey dinner.

    The Sox may indeed trade Ellsbury...but I believe only if they receive value back in return for him...the fact that many claim he is unsignable because Boras is his agent indicates that the Sox would never be able to sign a Boras client, which pretty much translates to not being able to sign any of the top players in the game...since many of them use Boras.

    If you are looking to sign FA players to 1 or 2 year deals, then don't expect those signings to occur until around January...since between now and then FA players will be shopping the marketplace.

    [/QUOTE]


    I believe the Sox are playing to compete in 2013. With that said, Ellsbury will be in CF unless, like you said, a good value deal stands before us.

    Teams like ours, NYY, LAA etc., dont have to go through "bridge years". We can compete with low year low $$ FA to fill holes along with smart trades. We have some solid prospects that should start to filter up as soon as late 2013, but you always need a good balanced mix of young talent and a solid veteran presence.

    Now, if people think that we wont sign any Boras clients, then I got news for you guys. Bradley and Bogaerts are Boras clients as well. IMO, the Sox have no issue signing Boras clients, but when signing them you have to be sure because its more than likely going to be a long term big $$$ deal. Maybe thats one reason they wanted to clear all the payroll for the coming years.

    Come February we will know which direction this FO wants to go. I say they will look to compete in 2013. The players they acquire and deals they make will say the same thing. Its possible to compete in 2013 as well as evry year after that. Not sure why we have to choose one or the other. You dont need an All star at every position to compete, just solid players that stay healthy and have good years. But the number one thing is a healthy pitching staff. We currently have 4 guys that can give you 15 wins. Doubront hasnt yet, but seeing how well he did last year (he got tired as expected, but finished very strong) I can see him doing it as well.

    Call me overly optimistic if you want, but the proven talent is there. We just need to add a few pieces.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Why is everyone so quick to dismiss Ellsbury?

    In response to SindarinEribor's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    "For those who think that 2013 will be a rebuildng year, trading Ells makes sense. If the Red Sox are going to contend next year, however, Ells is a player that can help the Sox get there. That being the case, I am not as willing to trade him this offseason as others are, especially since we already have holes/question marks at our other OF positions. "

     

    How true. Many here are only concerned about the short term ( one year) and other are concentrating on the long term.. Many believe in a budget ceiling and others believe that ownership is loaded. Many want Ben to be frugal and disciplined and other want him to spend like a drunken sailor. Many here are patient and others are impulsive.  Many are intolerant and others are not.  Take your pick.

    [/QUOTE]

    There's a happy medium: make moves that help us improve in 2013, but that also build a foundation for further improvement in 2014 and beyond. Other that the supplemental draft pick we get when Ellsbury bolts, and trust me, he will, keeping Ellsbury misses a fine opportunity to improve our post 2013 outlook, while not closing the door on 2013 being much better than 2012. 

    A couple of trades and signings here and there can get us on the road to serious recovery, but keeping Jacoby is too short-sighted for my taste. I hope to God above we don't go out and overspend for Hamilton and Greinke, but that is just about the only way I can see the merit in keeping Jacoby here for a 2013 push to a ring.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Why is everyone so quick to dismiss Ellsbury?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to SindarinEribor's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    "For those who think that 2013 will be a rebuildng year, trading Ells makes sense. If the Red Sox are going to contend next year, however, Ells is a player that can help the Sox get there. That being the case, I am not as willing to trade him this offseason as others are, especially since we already have holes/question marks at our other OF positions. "

     

    How true. Many here are only concerned about the short term ( one year) and other are concentrating on the long term.. Many believe in a budget ceiling and others believe that ownership is loaded. Many want Ben to be frugal and disciplined and other want him to spend like a drunken sailor. Many here are patient and others are impulsive.  Many are intolerant and others are not.  Take your pick.

    [/QUOTE]

    There's a happy medium: make moves that help us improve in 2013, but that also build a foundation for further improvement in 2014 and beyond. Other that the supplemental draft pick we get when Ellsbury bolts, and trust me, he will, keeping Ellsbury misses a fine opportunity to improve our post 2013 outlook, while not closing the door on 2013 being much better than 2012. 

    A couple of trades and signings here and there can get us on the road to serious recovery, but keeping Jacoby is too short-sighted for my taste. I hope to God above we don't go out and overspend for Hamilton and Greinke, but that is just about the only way I can see the merit in keeping Jacoby here for a 2013 push to a ring.

    [/QUOTE]


    I have no issue trading Ells. I just dont want to give him away. I would like to get good value back and if it means giving up another prospect/player in a package deal, then OK. Bottoim line is I dont want to just give him away for a couple OK prospects.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Why is everyone so quick to dismiss Ellsbury?

    I have no issue trading Ells. I just dont want to give him away. I would like to get good value back and if it means giving up another prospect/player in a package deal, then OK. Bottoim line is I dont want to just give him away for a couple OK prospects.

    I agree, and I think somewhere out there there is a GM willing to overpay for the chance that Ells has a 2011 or better season. The draft pick increases the value.

    Since we pretty much know our own prospects pretty well, Ill offer these scenarios as reference points only (I know softy will misread this and claim I am for trading Ellsbury to ourselves)

    I'd trade Ellsbury for:

    Bogaerts or Barnes straight up.

    Bradley and Marrero

    Webster and Swihart or Owens

    de la Rosa and Brentz or Cecchini

    Brentz & Cecchini

    Cecchini, Swihart & Vinicio or Lin (ss)

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Why is everyone so quick to dismiss Ellsbury?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I have no issue trading Ells. I just dont want to give him away. I would like to get good value back and if it means giving up another prospect/player in a package deal, then OK. Bottoim line is I dont want to just give him away for a couple OK prospects.

    I agree, and I think somewhere out there there is a GM willing to overpay for the chance that Ells has a 2011 or better season. The draft pick increases the value.

    Since we pretty much know our own prospects pretty well, Ill offer these scenarios as reference points only (I know softy will misread this and claim I am for trading Ellsbury to ourselves)

    I'd trade Ellsbury for:

    Bogaerts or Barnes straight up.

    Bradley and Marrero

    Webster and Swihart or Owens

    de la Rosa and Brentz or Cecchini

    Brentz & Cecchini

    Cecchini, Swihart & Vinicio or Lin (ss)

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I trade Ells for Bogaerts straight up, nevermind Barnes. But I can understand the value to put on him a little better now. Thats quite a bit in return for one guy for 1 year. But, there might just be a GM that thinks Ells is the guy they need.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Why is everyone so quick to dismiss Ellsbury?

    I think it is silly to speculate on the Bradleys , Barnes , Marreros , Cecchinis , Swiharts , Owens , Vinicios , etc.  The fact is , we know little about any of them , and most of them will not ever be major league stars.  It is just pie in the sky wishful thinking.  Bogaerts seems like the best " pick to click " , but it is foolish to expect too much from the rest. Best case scenario is that one or two become key players for the Sox in the near future.  I understand that it is fun to follow the progress of our young prospects , but we tend to overdo it , maybe out of frustration and desperation.  Basically mediocre minor league stats are nothing to become overly excited about.   It is hard for any of these kids to make the show , much less become impact major leaguers.  Let's try to be realistic.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Why is everyone so quick to dismiss Ellsbury?

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think it is silly to speculate on the Bradleys , Barnes , Marreros , Cecchinis , Swiharts , Owens , Vinicios , etc.  The fact is , we know little about any of them , and most of them will not ever be major league stars.  It is just pie in the sky wishful thinking.  Bogaerts seems like the best " pick to click " , but it is foolish to expect too much from the rest. Best case scenario is that one or two become key players for the Sox in the near future.  I understand that it is fun to follow the progress of our young prospects , but we tend to overdo it , maybe out of frustration and desperation.  Basically mediocre minor league stats are nothing to become overly excited about.   It is hard for any of these kids to make the show , much less become impact major leaguers.  Let's try to be realistic.

    [/QUOTE]


    I think Im pretty realistic about it. Just having some fun. All we can do with prospects is go by their ranking, what scouts say and some stats they have. Some just have a better chance than others. But then again, some you never expect make the biggest impact and the ones you expect to do well never do as well as projected.

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Why is everyone so quick to dismiss Ellsbury?

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think it is silly to speculate on the Bradleys , Barnes , Marreros , Cecchinis , Swiharts , Owens , Vinicios , etc.  The fact is , we know little about any of them , and most of them will not ever be major league stars.  It is just pie in the sky wishful thinking.  Bogaerts seems like the best " pick to click " , but it is foolish to expect too much from the rest. Best case scenario is that one or two become key players for the Sox in the near future.  I understand that it is fun to follow the progress of our young prospects , but we tend to overdo it , maybe out of frustration and desperation.  Basically mediocre minor league stats are nothing to become overly excited about.   It is hard for any of these kids to make the show , much less become impact major leaguers.  Let's try to be realistic.

    [/QUOTE]


    I think Im pretty realistic about it. Just having some fun. All we can do with prospects is go by their ranking, what scouts say and some stats they have. Some just have a better chance than others. But then again, some you never expect make the biggest impact and the ones you expect to do well never do as well as projected.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Yeah , I agree with that.  I just don't see most of our prospects having any minor league stats that stamp them as " can't miss " major leaguers.  We can't put all of our hope in them.

     
  14. This post has been removed.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Why is everyone so quick to dismiss Ellsbury?

    I trade Ells for Bogaerts straight up, nevermind Barnes. But I can understand the value to put on him a little better now. Thats quite a bit in return for one guy for 1 year. But, there might just be a GM that thinks Ells is the guy they need.

    I think getting the draft pick helps tip the balance for some GM. These picks have become rare, so GMs will look for them in deals like this.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Why is everyone so quick to dismiss Ellsbury?

    ....Basically mediocre minor league stats are nothing to become overly excited about.   It is hard for any of these kids to make the show , much less become impact major leaguers.  Let's try to be realistic.

    It's not so much about the minor league stats. Just take a look at past soxprospects top 20 lists over the years. A good percent of the top 10-12 players have made it to MLB with several doing very well indeed. Of course past records do not project forward, but we have had more sandwich picks and comp picks the last 3 years than all other years combined. It follows that one could expect our trend to improve over the next few years with prospects making an impact in the bigs.

    In the past we got...

    2005: Ellsbury, Buch, Hanson, Lowrie, and Bowden (Eagen)

    2006: (K. Johnson)

    2007: (Hagadone & Dent)

    2008: (Price & Fife)

    2009: 0

    2010: Brentz, Ranaudo, Workman, & Vitek

    2011: Barnes, Bradley, Swihart, & Owens

    2012: Marrero, Johnson, & Light

    That's 11 comp picks in 3 years. We also will get higher than normal picks this year due to our poor record.

    Yeah, we could strikeout with all of these guys, but many experts rate some of these guys very highly.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Why is everyone so quick to dismiss Ellsbury?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    ....Basically mediocre minor league stats are nothing to become overly excited about.   It is hard for any of these kids to make the show , much less become impact major leaguers.  Let's try to be realistic.

    It's not so much about the minor league stats. Just take a look at past soxprospects top 20 lists over the years. A good percent of the top 10-12 players have made it to MLB with several doing very well indeed. Of course past records do not project forward, but we have had more sandwich picks and comp picks the last 3 years than all other years combined. It follows that one could expect our trend to improve over the next few years with prospects making an impact in the bigs.

    In the past we got...

    2005: Ellsbury, Buch, Hanson, Lowrie, and Bowden (Eagen)

    2006: (K. Johnson)

    2007: (Hagadone & Dent)

    2008: (Price & Fife)

    2009: 0

    2010: Brentz, Ranaudo, Workman, & Vitek

    2011: Barnes, Bradley, Swihart, & Owens

    2012: Marrero, Johnson, & Light

    That's 11 comp picks in 3 years. We also will get higher than normal picks this year due to our poor record.

    Yeah, we could strikeout with all of these guys, but many experts rate some of these guys very highly.

    [/QUOTE]


    so wouldn't you rather have 1 surefire guy in jacoby than a couple of "maybe" prospects??

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from greenwellforpresident. Show greenwellforpresident's posts

    Re: Why is everyone so quick to dismiss Ellsbury?

    In response to TrotterNixon's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    A. He's a career loser albatross

    B. He doesn't take responsibility for showing up for work

    C. When he has an injury he takes 10 to 100 times longer to return to work

    D. When he finally does return to work, he makes sure he's terrible by loafing through what's left of the season and waiting until he gets closer to FA

    E. He's the most overrated Red Sox player in history

    F. He always plays the big hop

    G. He always takes games off for "precaution"

    H. The Red Sox have a superior athlete who could play CF right now at the MLB level

    I. He'll be 30 years old for the first year of his FA years contract

    J. Despite a career year seeing meatballs in front of big years by Pedroia and AGon and Ortiz, he'll never hit for career average pop and power because he short arms the ball and shifts his weight to his back foot

    K. He always pulls up and makes sure he doesn't hit wall padding

    L. He covers less ground than a top fielding CF'er because his depth perception is poor but he fools people by making routine catches look like good catchers by using his speed to try and recover from his mistakes

    M. He can't but a lick despite the fact that speed is what his MLB career is dependent on

    N. He runs the bases poorly despite the speed he has

    O. During his overpaid FA years and the 10 million cost for 2013, his speed will be declining as he moves into his thirties (see God's Law, or, for Democrat Party atheists, Nature's Law)

    P. Entire career in college and minors and MLB, where he is an everyday season player in a team leadership position, he puts himself above the team and poisons the team winning attitude

    Q. When making a play or getting on base or extra bases are critical in tipping point moments of team competition, he performs his worst and way below his ability level

    R. He has the weakest throwing arm for any MLB CF'er I've seen in my entire life

    S. Has no opposite field  or CF power, so instead of getting on base more by going the other way or with the pitch on outer half pitches, he tries to pull nearly every pitch in an attempt to produce more HR and extra base hits because he's been coached on position player stat profiles that pay the highest amount in arbitration and FA

    T. He's an aloof loner in a team sport, with the personality of his agent

    U. He complained about being moved to a different position instead of respecting the team game of baseball

    V. During the long season, he chose to "rehab" in AZ, near his agent, while allowing his agent to become his mouthpiece for nearly an entire season

    W. After taking at least 10 times longer, than the average professional athlete, to return to his job from broken ribs and dislocated shoulder with no structural damage, despite being young in MLB career age, he returned for a few games and then quit on the team and shut himself down for the season with the rib injury and played with apathy after missing most of the 2012 season 

    X. Has never communicated that he has an intense desire to end his career with the Red Sox

    Y. Has never communicated a deep appreciation to the Red Sox ticket and media purchasing Red Sox fans

    Z. Since becoming a season starting position player, a half a decade ago, his face represents the most embarrassing combination of losing Red Sox baseball in relation to nearly a billion dollar in labor costs

    And, everyone isn't so quick to "dismiss Ellsbury", whatever that means. You are a huge fan of Ellsbury and are pipe dreaming that he'll be signed to a big FA contract years with the Red Sox.   

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Incomplete list.  You forgot that he also caused the holocaust, the last ice age and is a major cause of global warming (which you probably don't believe).

     
  19. This post has been removed.

     
  20. This post has been removed.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Why is everyone so quick to dismiss Ellsbury?

    In response to SindarinEribor's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think it is silly to speculate on the Bradleys , Barnes , Marreros , Cecchinis , Swiharts , Owens , Vinicios , etc.  The fact is , we know little about any of them , and most of them will not ever be major league stars.  It is just pie in the sky wishful thinking.  Bogaerts seems like the best " pick to click " , but it is foolish to expect too much from the rest. Best case scenario is that one or two become key players for the Sox in the near future.  I understand that it is fun to follow the progress of our young prospects , but we tend to overdo it , maybe out of frustration and desperation.  Basically mediocre minor league stats are nothing to become overly excited about.   It is hard for any of these kids to make the show , much less become impact major leaguers.  Let's try to be realistic.

    [/QUOTE]
    Nearly the complete turnover of MLB rosters every 6-8 years comes from minor league prospects. The trick is to draft them, develop them, be patient, recognize their talent and potential and then retain them.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    isn't this what we are doing with jacoby??

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Why is everyone so quick to dismiss Ellsbury?

    so wouldn't you rather have 1 surefire guy in jacoby than a couple of "maybe" prospects??

    Yes, but...

    1) He's hardly "surefire" when he has only produced one out of the last 3 seasons.

    2) He's got one year left and he is 100% gone elswhere.

    3) A "couple of maybe prospects" is about equal to one "surefire" ML'er, but for 6+ years not 1. Therein lies the big gain for us. 

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Why is everyone so quick to dismiss Ellsbury?

    Nearly the complete turnover of MLB rosters every 6-8 years comes from minor league prospects. The trick is to draft them, develop them, be patient, recognize their talent and potential and then retain them.

    ...or deal them before we get nothing in return.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Why is everyone so quick to dismiss Ellsbury?

    still not buying your claim that he will not resign.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Why is everyone so quick to dismiss Ellsbury?

    I'll give you 5:1 odds.

    Will you "buy" that? 

     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share