Re: why would we want give up our future
posted at 11/11/2012 9:32 AM EST
In response to seabeachfred's comment:
In response to Joebreidey's comment:
Who do we give up for Gordon - Lavarnway is one peice to start talks but apparently KC wants a starter. Lavarnway and Doubront will most likely get this deal done or get KC's attention.
If Cherington pulls this deal off sign Haren to replace Doubront.
That's basically what I think a lot of fans think of when giving up prospects. We give up 5 years of Doubront for 3 of Gordon, with the possibility of draft comp at the end. It's mostly a matter of how many wins from Gordon at what $$$ versus what you'd get from Doubront.
Gordon is a lefthanded hitter and if y ou pair him with Ellsbury and a first baseman like LaRoche, Morneau or Davis, combine that with Ortiz and Salty and we have the same problem we had in 2011---to da#n lefthanded, and in a division with a plethora of solid southpaw pitchers that is fatal. I would pass on Gordon unless Ells is traded---and keep this in mind: JBjr is also a l efthanded hitter. We play in Fenway Park for half our games....we need RH hitters with sock. A few lefties fine but the majority of our lineup should be righthanded. Besides, too many LH hitters have trouble with with lefty pitchers.
I would sign Ross and Hunter for the OF and Ike Davis for 1B. That way we don't get too lefthanded. Of course, we need two pitchers too. I wonder if Haren could be gotten for a reasonable price?
The L/R has an intuitive appeal to it, but I don't think it's true. Even if we were lefty-heavy, since we face ~ 110 righties each year, and only ~52 lefties.
Let's say we had the talent to be .500, but because we had all lefties, we played .667 against righties, and only .333 against lefties, we'd still win 90.5 games. There are limitations, since teams can arrange their rotation so that we'd face more lefties, but if 70% of the starters you face are righty, you're better off with more lefties in the lineup.
In 2012, we were over >.500 v lefties, and 43-68 against righties, indicating the need for more lefties in the lineup. In 2011, it was more balanced, but we were .533 against righties and .600 against lefties. In 2007, we played .623 against righties. In 2004, we stillplayed .623 against righties. That's where we need to be.
While it might not seem so, we actually hit lefties much better than righties last year, indicating the need for more lefties.
From a general BB perspective, your 3 infielders and catcher are almost always righty. If you want any balance at all, let alone create a lefty-heavy lineup, you need to have a lefty-heavy OF.